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Moderna Vaccine Reported to be 94.5% Effective


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The 94.5% is encouraging even if a small sample size-  about 5 people from the vaccine group and 88 people from the placebo group with cases. 

However, it does not account for behavior- these people were likely being careful. Many people will get the vaccine and then be careless which might not help but at some point people are going to want to not social distance etc.. 

What encourages me is 2 products both at 90+% so far. 

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3 hours ago, GA Dave said:

My biggest issue with these US plans is they cut off the "elderly" at 65 plus.  I am just a couple of years short of that and have two conditions that the CDC defines as "underlying medical conditions".  Yet, under the proposed plan, I will receive the vaccine after my perfectly healthy 30-year-old daughter, 28-year-old son, and 3-year-old granddaughter.  How does this make any sense at all?

I do have a letter from back in March that my employer gave everyone in our company that states that we could travel during the shut down because we are essential workers.  Would this bump me up to Phase 2??

 

Here 'ya on this one Dave.  🤨

 

I'm high up on 1b for not so proud, unexpected hereditary (genes they tell me) health reasons; we're both 64.  Wife is down in the last group.  So, like you, our three healthy, vibrant working sons and spouses (teacher, doctor, restauranteur, etc.) and 4 (including 3 week newborn) grandkids, are ahead of her.  Haven't seen any of them since last Christmas.

 

All of them have continued working since March, including the pregnant doctor working overtime right up to delivery date in big DC hospital (now on a very deserved 5 month maternity break).

 

So, I get to go first, then the adult sons, spouses and grandkids, then my wife.  🙄

 

No, it doesn't make sense, but it is what it is and we'll deal with it.

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1 hour ago, HowardK said:

However, it does not account for behavior- these people were likely being careful. Many people will get the vaccine and then be careless which might not help but at some point people are going to want to not social distance etc.. 

Nope, at least if they are following instructions. I am in the Pfizer study. Our requirement was to go to stores, etc. at least three times a week and follow the normal protocols. I am doing nothing different now than I was doing before getting in the trial, e.g. being more careful.

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2 hours ago, njhorseman said:

More evidence that you're wrong about doctors' offices.  A NY Times interview with Dr. Celine Grounder of Biden's advisory board:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/16/health/coronavirus-celine-gounder-biden.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

"What are your thoughts about vaccine distribution?

 

Your local doctor’s office is not going to have the deep-freeze capability that, at least for the Pfizer vaccine, you’re going to need. They’re not necessarily going to have the tech systems to track and call people back to make sure they get their second doses.

That kind of capacity really resides either in public health departments or in the private commercial sector, like CVS and Walgreens. So it’s really going to require collaboration with them."

 

While the additional information source is much appreciated, this is kind of like beating a dead bird...

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Pfizer approval to be sought very soon.

If the FDA gives the vaccine the green light, Pfizer will likely make history as the first company with an FDA-authorized COVID-19 vaccine. It has plans to start delivering millions of doses of the potentially lifesaving vaccine to the most vulnerable overnight once the government gives a green light, possibly before the end of 2020, the company said.

 

Pfizer To Seek Authorization Within Days

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I guarantee when it's available, I'll sure be in line to get it as soon as I'm eligible.  I'm ready to get out of this mess.  It and the others are going to have a positive track record, that even maybe with some mild side effects, or only a 90 - 95% success rate, that sure as hell beats the current promise that without it, and if I get the virus, at my age I have a 14% chance of dying.  And if I don't die, a good chance the event will make me wish I would.  Shoot me up coach!  If somebody doesn't want their chance for a vaccine, I'll take it.  

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24 minutes ago, roger001 said:

I guarantee when it's available, I'll sure be in line to get it as soon as I'm eligible.  I'm ready to get out of this mess.  It and the others are going to have a positive track record, that even maybe with some mild side effects, or only a 90 - 95% success rate, that sure as hell beats the current promise that without it, and if I get the virus, at my age I have a 14% chance of dying.  And if I don't die, a good chance the event will make me wish I would.  Shoot me up coach!  If somebody doesn't want their chance for a vaccine, I'll take it.  

I’ve already had the standby text from my GP, I’m in the high risk category they call it : Clinically extremely vulnerable people, nice to have a title?

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21 minutes ago, Trimone said:

I’ve already had the standby text from my GP, I’m in the high risk category they call it : Clinically extremely vulnerable people, nice to have a title?

I wish the US was following the UK's lead on prioritization.  I have at least two conditions that the CDC lists as high risk, plus I am almost 62, but based on what I have seen here, I will fall after the 20-year-olds and 30year-olds.  😲

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9 minutes ago, GA Dave said:

I wish the US was following the UK's lead on prioritization.  I have at least two conditions that the CDC lists as high risk, plus I am almost 62, but based on what I have seen here, I will fall after the 20-year-olds and 30year-olds.  😲

That’s crazy, I will admit my surgery is very good, forward thinking, back in September I was given the flu jab on release date, whereas my parents in their late eighties had to wait until mid October, but that’s a surgery in special measures (completely useless) nearly killed me in 2000? But they won’t move Loyalty? Anyway Dave push like mad go to your governors, specialists, consultants etc.

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1 hour ago, GA Dave said:

I wish the US was following the UK's lead on prioritization.  I have at least two conditions that the CDC lists as high risk, plus I am almost 62, but based on what I have seen here, I will fall after the 20-year-olds and 30year-olds.  😲

 

There appear to be 2 approaches either to protect the vulnerable or stop the spread.

The UK government will be working down through the vulnerable & elderly groups, what I have seen listed for the US suggests you are attempting to stop the spread first.

 

Protecting the elderly and venerable has an obvious advantage but means business is slower to recover.

Stopping the spread first indirectly protects the elderly & vulnerable but has the advantage of getting business working faster.

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On 11/17/2020 at 1:59 PM, zdcatc12 said:

Nope, at least if they are following instructions. I am in the Pfizer study. Our requirement was to go to stores, etc. at least three times a week and follow the normal protocols. I am doing nothing different now than I was doing before getting in the trial, e.g. being more careful.

@zdcatc12,  thank you for participating in the study- you are true hero in my book,

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I don't typically get flu vaccines, but I don't have high exposure - well maybe at the grocery store.  I've been fortunate enough to have never gotten the flu even when I worked in daycare and at a veterinary clinic.  I did get them on occasion when the clinic paid for them & had the pharmacy tech come give them to us.   I did get the 2-part shingles vaccine back when it was in short supply.  My Walmart pharmacist called me when it was available for the 2nd dose.  However, had there not been supply issues, I don't know that they would have done that.  I had shingles once & never wanted to go through that again, so I was happy to get the vaccine.  As far as a covid vaccine, if I have to have it to cruise, I suppose I will get it.  I know a few people who have had covid with no big issues, but I also know one person who died from it and know of others who have been or are still hospitalized with it.  So, I may get the vaccine - just don't know yet.

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I'm not sure why I scan through some of the boards from time to time. Perhaps after more cruises than I can count....we were on the Jewel terminated voyage in middle of South Pacific when the world seemingly turned upside down. After initially and for a period of time, following protocols put forth by officials, I began to question what was unfolding...and generally speaking those that question anything are labelled as a conspiracy theorist, antivaxer, antimasker and/or selfish. But this simply doesn't make sense to me. People are dying of so many ailments, any of which is equally heartbreaking to loved ones. Collateral damage from isolation and shutdowns...I can only imagine. I believe main stream media has affected people's thought processes to the point of grave concern. When I read that clearly, so many are going to take vaccines that are put forth in such a minimal amount of time.....I feel sad and concerned about the future in general.

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39 minutes ago, winterbliss said:

I'm not sure why I scan through some of the boards from time to time. Perhaps after more cruises than I can count....we were on the Jewel terminated voyage in middle of South Pacific when the world seemingly turned upside down. After initially and for a period of time, following protocols put forth by officials, I began to question what was unfolding...and generally speaking those that question anything are labelled as a conspiracy theorist, antivaxer, antimasker and/or selfish. But this simply doesn't make sense to me. People are dying of so many ailments, any of which is equally heartbreaking to loved ones. Collateral damage from isolation and shutdowns...I can only imagine. I believe main stream media has affected people's thought processes to the point of grave concern. When I read that clearly, so many are going to take vaccines that are put forth in such a minimal amount of time.....I feel sad and concerned about the future in general.

Speaking to the highlighted sentence above, you have to put this "minimal amount of time" into context.  When Dr. Jonas Salk developed the polio vaccine, the effort took approximately four years and was worked on by a relatively small team at the University of Pittsburgh.  At that time, most of the calculations, etc. that had to be performed were done on slide rules, paper, or very basic computers that could perform a few hundred calculations per second.  Flash forward to 2020, and we have literally tens of thousands of scientists all over the world working with supercomputers that perform up to 200 quadrillion calculations per second.  So, if you take Salk's four year project vs the current 10 month project, and think of the difference in personnel involved and computing power, I wonder why this year's effort took so long.

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1 hour ago, GA Dave said:

I wonder why this year's effort took so long.

So long? Just the opposite IMO. The two vaccines that are closest to approval, from Pfizer and Moderna, were developed in an entirely new way, using messenger RNA (mRNA). I view that as the reason why these vaccines were developed so quickly...but even vaccines that are being developed in more traditional ways are moving along much faster than in the past, and computing power has likely contributed to that. 

 

 Remember that all those scientists and all that computing power are not being used to develop a single vaccine.  54 vaccines are in clinical trials on humans and at least 87 are under active investigation in animals per https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html , so the brain power and computing power are not focused on a single vaccine the way Salk was.

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3 hours ago, winterbliss said:

....When I read that clearly, so many are going to take vaccines that are put forth in such a minimal amount of time.....I feel sad and concerned about the future in general.

 

I feel sad and a little concerned about you feeling that way.

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On 11/18/2020 at 9:19 AM, GA Dave said:

I wish the US was following the UK's lead on prioritization.  I have at least two conditions that the CDC lists as high risk, plus I am almost 62, but based on what I have seen here, I will fall after the 20-year-olds and 30year-olds.  😲

Every state was required to submit a plan on how they will distributed the limited vaccine that will be made available to them. 

https://dph.georgia.gov/document/document/covid-19-vaccination-plan-georgia/download

 

You may qualify for Tier 1

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7 hours ago, BirdTravels said:

Every state was required to submit a plan on how they will distributed the limited vaccine that will be made available to them. 

https://dph.georgia.gov/document/document/covid-19-vaccination-plan-georgia/download

 

You may qualify for Tier 1

Thanks!  I had not seen this and was just going by what the national press was saying.  I did not know that each state was proposing their own plans with different definitions of "at risk", including the differences in age groups.

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