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Moderna COVID Vaccine reported to have 94.5% efficacy today!


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1 minute ago, markeb said:

 

Yep. We're now in the crazy range that only a handful at best of people around here follow or care about!

 

Makes me miss the game... 😧

The first thought that comes to mind in response is from a Dickens Novel - It was the best of times it was the worst of times. Very interesting work, that had real impact, but there were also some negatives.

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7 hours ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

that's not how mRNA vaccines work at all.

 

They deposit mRNA into cells, and hopefully some of them make it into the dendritic/antigen presenting cells, where they will get assembled and put onto MHC and presented, and recognized by T-cells to start the immunity process.

 

It's very similar pathway from traditional vaccines, just instead of blasting virus or parts of proteins attached to conjugates to get dendritic cells to eat them and present them, you try to directly inject the mRNA into the dendritic cells, where they assemble the antigen and present it.

 

Theoretically the immune reaction at the end should be fairly simiar.

 

And other vaccines are super effective in preventing transmission, even of viruses much much more infective (measles, chickenpox).  Yes, it'll be some while till we know for sure, but don't see any reason to be pessmistic about that aspect.

 


First of all... if my way of a very simplified   explanation matches the explanation in interviews with for example the BioNtech founder, then I dare say it’s anything but wrong.

 

Regardless of that - I have no interest in starting a lengthy dispute about immunology on a cruise forum - I am anything but pessimistic about the vaccines. On the contrary.

 

My worry is simple: some people and some countries never found a reasonable approach to fighting the virus or to exercising  caution in regards of the basic 101s of epidemiology. The mere news and existence of a vaccine might be enough for them (and more people) to  claim that it is all over and to care even less - and especially to dispute all measures eventually and finally  introduced.

 

And since this group never listened to scientists before, they won’t start now.

That’s my worry - not the vaccines!

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2 hours ago, Miaminice said:


First of all... if my way of a very simplified   explanation matches the explanation in interviews with for example the BioNtech founder, then I dare say it’s anything but wrong.

 

Regardless of that - I have no interest in starting a lengthy dispute about immunology on a cruise forum - I am anything but pessimistic about the vaccines. On the contrary.

 

My worry is simple: some people and some countries never found a reasonable approach to fighting the virus or to exercising  caution in regards of the basic 101s of epidemiology. The mere news and existence of a vaccine might be enough for them (and more people) to  claim that it is all over and to care even less - and especially to dispute all measures eventually and finally  introduced.

 

And since this group never listened to scientists before, they won’t start now.

That’s my worry - not the vaccines!

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41541-020-0159-8/figures/1

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23 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

This is a generally understandable version - and basically what I said:

University of Cambridge

Unlike a normal vaccine, RNA vaccines work by introducing an mRNA sequence (the molecule which tells cells what to build) which is coded for a disease specific antigen, once produced within the body, the antigen is recognised by the immune system, preparing it to fight the real thing.

 

If you prefer to spread wisdom by posting a very complicated version... knock yourself out 🙂

Again, I have no interest in arguing about it - since it´s not my point and it doesn´t make a difference in my point.
My point is that people think a vaccine - any vaccine, no just the current mRNA vaccines - act like a lightswitch in eliminating the corona pandemic. And they don´t! It´s more like a dimmer switch - slowly reducing the thread. And until then, and some time after, we will not get back to the "good old days".

 

That, however, is not being pessimistic and bad news. It´s the light at the end of a tunnel and very good news. But the tunnel is not a short one.

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After getting a brief introduction into how these vaccines work, I agree with TeeRick "Hopefully we will be back to cruising before we know it!"  Even if the vaccinated people are still shedding some much smaller amount of the virus, the vaccinated people can resume there normal lives without the fear of dying.  Ok, you will still need to wear a mask and social distance with strangers to protect others.  But you'll be able to fly and sit next to a person that might have Covid and you will be fine.  Or you can go the grocery store without rubber gloves to protect you from touching the cart.  Or you can even go on a cruise without the fear of getting Covid and then being stuck somewhere that doesn't have the ability to treat you.  You can expand your social circle to include other vaccinated people without the standard Covid protections.  

 

Eliminating the fear of getting very ill, getting long lasting complications or dying goes a long way for me to feel normal again.  

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4 hours ago, Miaminice said:

 

This is a generally understandable version - and basically what I said:

University of Cambridge

Unlike a normal vaccine, RNA vaccines work by introducing an mRNA sequence (the molecule which tells cells what to build) which is coded for a disease specific antigen, once produced within the body, the antigen is recognised by the immune system, preparing it to fight the real thing.

 

If you prefer to spread wisdom by posting a very complicated version... knock yourself out 🙂

Again, I have no interest in arguing about it - since it´s not my point and it doesn´t make a difference in my point.
My point is that people think a vaccine - any vaccine, no just the current mRNA vaccines - act like a lightswitch in eliminating the corona pandemic. And they don´t! It´s more like a dimmer switch - slowly reducing the thread. And until then, and some time after, we will not get back to the "good old days".

 

That, however, is not being pessimistic and bad news. It´s the light at the end of a tunnel and very good news. But the tunnel is not a short one.

Miaminice- I think I get your point but it is not really based on mRNA or Immunology which I think is creating some confusion by us science geeks here trying to answer you.

 

You are making a general point really about the view of some people in the population that do not understand vaccines or how they work.  Made more difficult by the autobahn approach for these vaccines. And some will be more confused than ever with all of the attention of a COVID vaccine and all of the information and misinformation that is continuously thrown around.  Not to mention the scare tactics and agendas.  But I personally think you are worrying too much.  I understand your caution.

 

These two COVID vaccines will be analyzed to the nth degree by very smart and learned scientists and medical professionals once all of the data finally is released.  And so will other vaccines that get this far.  Of that you can be assured.  Vaccine-acquired herd immunity is the key to all of this.  Parts of the world and maybe even parts of the US might first switch from pandemic to endemic and then to isolated cases in the best scenario with excess vaccine supplies available.  This will take time.  Not a lightswitch.  But this is a key part of public health to communicate what is realistic and what are expectations.  Yes some people out there will never get to an understanding or do not want to understand.  But a great majority of us will.  

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8 hours ago, markeb said:

 

Technically no, same as smallpox. Some of the craziest cases with smallpox, though, that led to pretty significant localized outbreaks, were "atypical' symptoms. One I remember involved pox lesions in the oronasopharynx that were latent to observers and in exactly the wrong place. One of the best case studies I've ever read. They could track spread to open windows (it was in Germany, I believe).

 

What I really am curious about with measles (much higher R0, but the preliminary vaccine efficacy is in the measles range) is I'm betting the endpoints equated to disease reduction, but they were equal or approximately equal to infection rates. The lack of asymptomatic transmission helps, but you still had to have data or make a leap of faith. With an R0 in the teens, you had an answer on transmission pretty early!

I think the best case of viral asymptomatic transmission in out lifetimes comes from HIV and AIDS.

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1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

But I personally think you are worrying too much.  I understand your caution.

 

These two COVID vaccines will be analyzed to the nth degree by very smart and learned scientists and medical professionals once all of the data finally is released.  And so will other vaccines that get this far.  Of that you can be assured. 

TeeRick, I am not worried about the vaccines themselves - in fact I would volunteer to be vaccinated with the BioNtech vaccine tomorrow. I am naming that one because I haven´t looked into the other one in depth yet.

My worry is all about the behaviour of people. And honestly, looking at the behaviour of a huge number of people over the past months, especially in the US, I don´t think I can worry too much... 😉

Most of them did not care until now. I think they will use the vaccines as just another excuse.

Edited by Miaminice
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18 minutes ago, bouhunter said:

Enjoy the endless vaccine discussions.

Actually many of us on CC actually do enjoy these discussions.  No problem at all if you do not.  A vaccine discussion will not be necessary after we get approved vaccines that are effective and available.  It is the only way we all get back to more normal cruising as that is why we are all here on CC anyway.  So I look forward to the day of no vaccine discussions.  Hopefully sooner than later.

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39 minutes ago, Miaminice said:

TeeRick, I am not worried about the vaccines themselves - in fact I would volunteer to be vaccinated with the BioNtech vaccine tomorrow. I am naming that one because I haven´t looked into the other one in depth yet.

My worry is all about the behaviour of people. And honestly, looking at the behaviour of a huge number of people over the past months, especially in the US, I don´t think I can worry too much... 😉

Most of them did not care until now. I think they will use the vaccines as just another excuse.

Yes I definitely get that.  But you can only control your own behavior (and occasionally your kid's behavior🙂). Others will do what they do -whether there is a vaccine or not. 

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On 11/16/2020 at 7:35 PM, nocl said:

 

Would have to disagree that mortality is the only thing that matters.  Especially in a disease that also causes a number of what appears to be long term impacts (neurological, cardiac, etc) even in patients that do not show symptoms.

 

morbidity

 noun
 
mor·bid·i·ty | \ mȯr-ˈbi-də-tē  \

Definition of morbidity

2: a diseased state or symptom : ill healthParasitic protozoans and helminths represent two major groups of infectious agents that are responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality in human and animal populations.— Adel A. F. Mahmoud
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I am so grateful to those of you with expertise and experience in infectious disease and immunology who share your knowledge and analysis with us. (TeeRick and Cangelmd immediately come to mind, but I know there are others). I do agree with Miaminice that some will use the existence of a vaccine to throw caution (if they ever had any) to the wind.
I understand the fatigue in dealing with this. I really wanted to spend Thanksgiving with my parents and brother, but my husband and I were not able to completely isolate for 14 days.  We have a plan to strictly self-quarantine for 14 days prior to driving up to my parents’ place for Christmas, with drive-through testing at the beginning of the 14 days, and a few days before we head up there. It’s not foolproof, but we have no idea if we’ll have another Christmas together, so we have to do the best we can. Fortunately, we can drive, and limit our exposure to a couple of masked pit stops. We’ll fix our lunch and eat it parked in the car away from other cars.

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What I have seen here in Coastal Georgia is the most people wear masks when they go out in public.   It is rare to see someone inside (grocery store or pharmacy) not wearing a mask.  Of course, those places have signs up asking people to wear masks.

 

During the shutdown period earlier in the years, it was rare to see many people out, even in the grocery store.   When we started having problems with COVID-19 spreading was after Memorial Day weekend and Fourth of July weekend.  We live on an island with beaches, golf, etc.  It is something of a resort area.  I remember going out to meet a friend for lunch on Memorial Day weekend.   I was shocked at so many people were not wearing masks, etc.  Most were from out of state, many from the NE USA.

 

By  August, the spread had declined and tourist season we more modest.   People seem to be doing the right thing.

 

When we walk in the neighborhood, we meet many neighbors, as well as some visiting (staying in condo near our area).  People seem well informed and do the social distancing.  The consensus here is that yes, the virus is a risk, especially for the elderly and people with comorbidities, but for healthy people the mortality rate is less than 1%.   People are still cautious, but willing to risk going to restaurants, getting a haircut, etc., and living more normally.    Schools are open with the vast majority of students attending classes and no significant COVID-19 infections there.

 

The unemployment rate in Georgia is about 6% and we are hanging in there waiting for the vaccine.  No reason to plan a cruise or trip overseas until then.  We plan on getting a vaccine as soon as possible.  We are ready to travel.

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Moderna Chief Medical Officer warns public should not "over-interpret" the vaccine trial results to assume life could go back to normal after adults are vaccinated. "They do not show that they prevent you from potentially carrying this virus transiently and infecting others. I think it's important that we don't change behavior solely on the basis of vaccination."  Which means keep social distancing and wearing masks and hand hygiene.
 
While he believes based on the science that it's likely that vaccine does prevent transmission, there's still no solid proof of that.
 
Hopefully there will be proof by the time cruising eventually starts up next year.
Edited by twins_to_alaska
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