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WILL PRICES EVER COME DOWN?


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I too like Aqua and Blu, but not at these prices.

 

theory here. 
 

a saying in the stock market is that the fix for high prices is high prices and the fix for low prices is low prices.

 

on the bookings I made using FCC the prices are very high and I plan on holding them till they come down or at the final payment day.

 

I am thinking, given the attitudes here that there will be a lot of openings on cruises. Lift and shift, if allowed, is the only bargain. 

 

low occupancy will bring back reasonable prices.

 

it might have worked if other cruise lines followed Celebrity but apparently not.

 

so now we see if true supply and demand works.

 

i looked at the Princess TA spring 2022 but did not like the idea of going to London for so much time in april. Had it stayed south i would have booked.

 

as of now, i think we do a land tour in 2022.

all depends on our health later this year staying very good, and restrictions being lifted.

 

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This is fairly straightforward for us.  We view cruising as just another travel option.  We can do AI's, independent land travel, whatever.

 

If prices remain high relative to other travel options we will simply not book any cruises.   We vote with our feet and our wallets.  We have no intention of paying over the odds.   If we believe that there is not enough value in the product relative to price, we pass in favor of another option.   It is that simply for us.

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22 hours ago, zitsky said:

I like Aqua and Blu.  Not sure if I can find something similar without booking a suite?

 

If you are referring to Princess, try booking a mini suite with Club Class Dining. Closest thing you will get to Blu.

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3 hours ago, Gracie115 said:

 

If you are referring to Princess, try booking a mini suite with Club Class Dining. Closest thing you will get to Blu.

 

Yes I was.  I looked at the Princess site.  Club Class offered on most itineraries but not all.

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49 minutes ago, zitsky said:

 

Yes I was.  I looked at the Princess site.  Club Class offered on most itineraries but not all.

You might want to check again.  It is possible that the Club Class might be sold out for certain cruises, Club Class is not itinerary dependent.  
The Club Class dining experience is an improvement over the MDR dining,   It is a lot different than the Blu experience, so you might want to do some additional research.

Good luck.

 

 

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Working in aviation, especially during these times, I feel like Celebrity are using tactics the airlines are using. When airlines are not sure about a route they will be operating during a timeframe they will still sell tickets on the flight until they are sure they are pulling it or progressing with operating it. But during the time they are not sure, they will only sell the flight at "full price." This is because they know those who are booking are sure they need to travel and are comfortable with that fare. They are not trying to stimulate demand on the route and if they cancel it is easier to take care of these fewer passengers as they can be accommodated in most cases easily onto other flights, especially as they are paying full fare.

 

In the case of Celebrity they are selling at full fare, they know those who are booking right now are avid cruisers who want to return to the seas. They know that overall those who are booking now will likely choose to be re-accommodated on a later sailing versus full cancel.

 

Secondly, yes fares for cruises over 6 months out are also very high but for the short term I think they are still getting some reservations and that they are getting higher than average returns on these bookings. This is a way to show to their creditors that though revenues are down their returns on the bookings they are getting are higher.

 

I think once cruises return, prices will come down. Once their balance sheets look healthier with a steady income we shall see prices come down. It is all about supply and demand.

 

Now are other cruise lines using other tactics? Yes, they are. But I think we are still seeing more "full fare" cruises than deals. Again, once cruises return we shall see an improvement across the board.

 

When will cruising return? It is for us all to see. I am hoping sooner than later. This business is lucrative and successful. I do not think we are going to see the end of cruising but what I think may happen... mergers.

 

This is just my 2 cents! I am for sure ready to be on the seas again.

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25 minutes ago, DTL321 said:

Working in aviation, especially during these times, I feel like Celebrity are using tactics the airlines are using. When airlines are not sure about a route they will be operating during a timeframe they will still sell tickets on the flight until they are sure they are pulling it or progressing with operating it. But during the time they are not sure, they will only sell the flight at "full price." This is because they know those who are booking are sure they need to travel and are comfortable with that fare. They are not trying to stimulate demand on the route and if they cancel it is easier to take care of these fewer passengers as they can be accommodated in most cases easily onto other flights, especially as they are paying full fare.

 

In the case of Celebrity they are selling at full fare, they know those who are booking right now are avid cruisers who want to return to the seas. They know that overall those who are booking now will likely choose to be re-accommodated on a later sailing versus full cancel.

 

Secondly, yes fares for cruises over 6 months out are also very high but for the short term I think they are still getting some reservations and that they are getting higher than average returns on these bookings. This is a way to show to their creditors that though revenues are down their returns on the bookings they are getting are higher.

 

I think once cruises return, prices will come down. Once their balance sheets look healthier with a steady income we shall see prices come down. It is all about supply and demand.

 

Now are other cruise lines using other tactics? Yes, they are. But I think we are still seeing more "full fare" cruises than deals. Again, once cruises return we shall see an improvement across the board.

 

When will cruising return? It is for us all to see. I am hoping sooner than later. This business is lucrative and successful. I do not think we are going to see the end of cruising but what I think may happen... mergers.

 

This is just my 2 cents! I am for sure ready to be on the seas again.

Absolutely.  There are many tens of thousands with FCCs.  Those credits are compressed into the next 16 months creating a false demand.  For those of us in the US as you said - no harm no foul until final payment date.  We hold a couple August cruises that will not happen.  Until maybe May nothing is likely to cruise simply because ports cannot handle the potential of infected passengers.  What is the liklihood of Victoria opening to cruises when their daily COVID numbers In the city have often been ZERO.  They simply don't want those from other countries or even other provinces bring infection to Vancouver Island and BC.

  In Arizona vaccination is going smoothly - sorry Florida - but those of us under 75 and retired are not likely to be vaccinated till late March. Hmmm.

Thus we will either wait till they are cancelled and take our money or move to April 2022 cruises.  Right now do not care which happens.

We love cruising but flying to go overseas works fine and driving to US and late this year - Canada.

 

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This all becomes a  rather complex problem.

 

The cruise lines have now lost at least 1 year of business and even if they start in March, it will be at reduced capacity on a ship, and only a portion of their fleet will go back in service early on.

 

Prior to Covid, people were already booking 2021 cruises. I know I booked a Thanksgiving 2021 cruise Jan 5 2020 and the Nov 2021 cruise was almost full a year ago and I was shocked

 

Now I had to book two more cruises to cover the two I have booked and I have till May 2022 to sail. That's 15 months of time from now to absorb the 12 months that have already been cancelled, and a few more for the March to June cruises for people have cancelled.  and add a couple more months if they do start in March.

 

I also know that early on people that canceled cause they saw what was coming, went out to future cruises and rebooked last may for then future cruises  at much higher prices and were not happy as the increases were large.

 

But they held the cruises till the 90 day point regardless thinking something good would occur.

So first we are putting the cart before the horse.

First, we do not know which if any of the March cruises will be going and if so, I sure as heck do not want to pay thee prices if the  new protocols are to wear masks except in your cabin.

Or if we do not have the cruise line excursions we cannot even get off at ports.

 

Once we start getting an idea we get #2 point:

 

at the 90 day mark,do we say the heck with it, let's cancel this one because I would not even go at the lower price.

 

Keep in mind we are working against the 12/31/2021 booking date and 5/5/2022 sail date.

 

I think all the booking made, virtually all are predicated on an at least very good experience when on board. And we will not know the answer to that for at least a couple of months after they do start sailing. And for me its one thing to wear a mask when I go to the grocery store for 20 minutes, and a whole other thing to carry and wear a mask wherever I go on board and be a part of social distancing.

 

It's a vacation! and now one where the cost has nearly doubled.

 

So at some point I think the cruise lines have to push out the dates to use credits. Or they will see people just cancel and give up credits. That might be their plan but its not a very good long-term strategy.

 

I will say whats already been said here. If Celebrity wants to differentiate itself as luxury premium, this was a bad time to do it and becoming a premium line is more than just raising prices. They the entire RCL group was making good money before covid. What do we as customer get at 50-100% higher bottom line prices. Sounds like the same stuff with a different spin and higher prices.

What I have learned the past coupe of weeks is if I am willing to spend more, that same amount as celebrity asks,  I can really go on a premium line with smaller ships and does more ports.

 

 

The vaccination is a separate story. In their trials the companies do not know if those taking the vaccine were actually exposed to the virus to tell us if its effective. There is an assumption being made there. You have to make up your own mind but if so, the media hyping it is not the end all. DYODD-do your own due diligence.

 

The Emergency Use Authorization was made because the trials were not complete and will not be for a while, and also need peer reviews.Its like a sign off that trials were conducted properly . The problem is like baking bread--you need a minimum amount of tie for that and for trials and the trials have been circumvented. The fact track? the normal time to develop and trial something is 2-5 years-pfizer did it in 6 months. No wonder the pharma companies needed indemnification.

 

Remember, I think we do not want just a cruise--we want one that's up to our standards

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, zitsky said:

 

Yes I was.  I looked at the Princess site.  Club Class offered on most itineraries but not all.

Club Class is offered on all itineraries, but there are a limited number of seats available so whatever sailings you're looking at must have already filled those cabins.  

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On 1/7/2021 at 2:26 PM, HMR74 said:

This all becomes a  rather complex problem.

 

The cruise lines have now lost at least 1 year of business and even if they start in March, it will be at reduced capacity on a ship, and only a portion of their fleet will go back in service early on.

 

Prior to Covid, people were already booking 2021 cruises. I know I booked a Thanksgiving 2021 cruise Jan 5 2020 and the Nov 2021 cruise was almost full a year ago and I was shocked

 

Now I had to book two more cruises to cover the two I have booked and I have till May 2022 to sail. That's 15 months of time from now to absorb the 12 months that have already been cancelled, and a few more for the March to June cruises for people have cancelled.  and add a couple more months if they do start in March.

 

I also know that early on people that canceled cause they saw what was coming, went out to future cruises and rebooked last may for then future cruises  at much higher prices and were not happy as the increases were large.

 

But they held the cruises till the 90 day point regardless thinking something good would occur.

So first we are putting the cart before the horse.

First, we do not know which if any of the March cruises will be going and if so, I sure as heck do not want to pay thee prices if the  new protocols are to wear masks except in your cabin.

Or if we do not have the cruise line excursions we cannot even get off at ports.

 

Once we start getting an idea we get #2 point:

 

at the 90 day mark,do we say the heck with it, let's cancel this one because I would not even go at the lower price.

 

Keep in mind we are working against the 12/31/2021 booking date and 5/5/2022 sail date.

 

I think all the booking made, virtually all are predicated on an at least very good experience when on board. And we will not know the answer to that for at least a couple of months after they do start sailing. And for me its one thing to wear a mask when I go to the grocery store for 20 minutes, and a whole other thing to carry and wear a mask wherever I go on board and be a part of social distancing.

 

It's a vacation! and now one where the cost has nearly doubled.

 

So at some point I think the cruise lines have to push out the dates to use credits. Or they will see people just cancel and give up credits. That might be their plan but its not a very good long-term strategy.

 

I will say whats already been said here. If Celebrity wants to differentiate itself as luxury premium, this was a bad time to do it and becoming a premium line is more than just raising prices. They the entire RCL group was making good money before covid. What do we as customer get at 50-100% higher bottom line prices. Sounds like the same stuff with a different spin and higher prices.

What I have learned the past coupe of weeks is if I am willing to spend more, that same amount as celebrity asks,  I can really go on a premium line with smaller ships and does more ports.

 

 

The vaccination is a separate story. In their trials the companies do not know if those taking the vaccine were actually exposed to the virus to tell us if its effective. There is an assumption being made there. You have to make up your own mind but if so, the media hyping it is not the end all. DYODD-do your own due diligence.

 

The Emergency Use Authorization was made because the trials were not complete and will not be for a while, and also need peer reviews.Its like a sign off that trials were conducted properly . The problem is like baking bread--you need a minimum amount of tie for that and for trials and the trials have been circumvented. The fact track? the normal time to develop and trial something is 2-5 years-pfizer did it in 6 months. No wonder the pharma companies needed indemnification.

 

Remember, I think we do not want just a cruise--we want one that's up to our standards

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Perusing Celebrity just for fun.  Look at the diff on these two cruises on APEX in identical Edge Villa Suite for 2 passengers:  Europe 12 day 8/28/21-9/9/21 $40,472!!!  Transatlantic 14 days 4/30/22-5/14/22 $26,919...WTH already??

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2 minutes ago, HMR74 said:

any special perks? 

At that level suite I am pretty sure it includes just about everything, premium drinks, tips, any specialty restaurant, wifi, $800 OBC, but the diff between the two cruises was to me astounding

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7 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

At that level suite I am pretty sure it includes just about everything, premium drinks, tips, any specialty restaurant, wifi, $800 OBC, but the diff between the two cruises was to me astounding

 

for that kind of money they should have the apex band playing in your suite during dinner.

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22 minutes ago, HMR74 said:

 

for that kind of money they should have the apex band playing in your suite during dinner.

TA vs Med cruise--Apparently TA's are discounted.

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2 hours ago, LGW59 said:

Yes but that $ disparity is CRAZY!!

that it is. Celebrity might need a new VP of Pricing Strategy and Management.

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2 hours ago, zitsky said:

I compared an Ultimate Caribbean cruise in 2020 and 2022.  One more day and port. 2022 was about 50% more.

Yep--that's on the low side. It started early 2020-someone I know one their own just canceled their 2020 since it seemed crazy, then looked at the 2021. We calculated 37% higher.  something like 8k for 18 day cruise S class 6th level with obstructed view. I looked and said the hell with it. I have to see if that's still scheduled--it was , the 2021 cruise, almost fully booked a year ago.

They also held a survey asking if passengers wanted more 7 day more than  14 day cruises or longer so they went to 7-10 day--and here I thought premium lines wanted to do longer cruises like Oceania and the others.

 

I do not like round trips. I want to go from one place to the other and spend a little time at each end.

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1 minute ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Fewer ports, fewer expenses.

Having crossed almost 30 times, these sailings, at one time were quite unpopular.  That is why they were cheap (especially since some crossings have as many ports as Med sailings).  Now that they have become trendy in the last few years, they are a long way from being a bargain.

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We vote with our wallets and with our feet.   If we feel that the price is excessive we simply do not buy.

 

Really do not know what the issue is.  At the end of the day nobody is forced to buy.  We assume that those who do buy are happy with the fare.

 

 Reduced demand will be the path to lower fares.

Edited by iancal
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15 minutes ago, iancal said:

We vote with our wallets and with our feet.   If we feel that the price is excessive we simply do not buy.

 

Really do not know what the issue is.  At the end of the day nobody is forced to buy.  We assume that those who do buy are happy with the fare.

 

 Reduced demand will be the path to lower fares.

 

I agree. Vote with your feet. Even now I can find some cruises that are attractive and some not.

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15 hours ago, LGW59 said:

Perusing Celebrity just for fun.  Look at the diff on these two cruises on APEX in identical Edge Villa Suite for 2 passengers:  Europe 12 day 8/28/21-9/9/21 $40,472!!!  Transatlantic 14 days 4/30/22-5/14/22 $26,919...WTH already??

The price for the 12 Day 8/28/21 cruise has been reduced to about $37K, better grab it.  They have several cabins available, so it must be the “real price”.   I found it hard to believe that someone would pay that much.  The Edge Villa was $35K for the October 21, 2021 TA and they are now sold out.  So the $27K for the April 2022 is a realities bargain.  
It is interesting that the Royal Suites are all gone for both of those cruises.  They were significantly less expensive.  

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22 minutes ago, jagoffee said:

The price for the 12 Day 8/28/21 cruise has been reduced to about $37K, better grab it.  They have several cabins available, so it must be the “real price”.   I found it hard to believe that someone would pay that much.  The Edge Villa was $35K for the October 21, 2021 TA and they are now sold out.  So the $27K for the April 2022 is a realities bargain.  
It is interesting that the Royal Suites are all gone for both of those cruises.  They were significantly less expensive.  

The price for the 12 Day 8/28/21 cruise has been reduced to about $37K, better grab it.  LOL don't I wish!

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1 hour ago, iancal said:

We vote with our wallets and with our feet.   If we feel that the price is excessive we simply do not buy.

 

Really do not know what the issue is.  At the end of the day nobody is forced to buy.  We assume that those who do buy are happy with the fare.

 

 Reduced demand will be the path to lower fares.

Reduced prices might raise the demand, but they can reduce the price only so much. If that doesn’t work, will the last person to leave the ship, don’t forget to turn off the lights, for the last time.

They have to turn a profit but they have billions of dollars in debt that also has to be paid back.

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