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Alaska 2021 Preductions?


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IMO, a lot is determined by how the vaccinations are going by, say, the end of March.  If they feel they can get enough people vaccinated by the time cruising season is set to open for Alaska, then I can see a nearly full season.  Pure guess, but I'd say it'll start in June.  Granted, this is me being extremely hopeful, but it's just how I am seeing it.  Fingers crossed!

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I preduct that cruising to /from Alaska including Canada will happen but perhaps Aug-Sept 2021.  This is based on vaccine availability and uptake for the general cruising population starting in April-May time frame.

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Our May 2021 Eclipse cruise was cancelled and we had the offer to rebook anytime during the 2021 season.  

 

We rebooked for September 2021 (end of season), as I am most hopeful that with the majority (~ 75% Canadians vaccinated) and a very good percentage of people vaccinated outside of Canada having the jab - the second half - end of Alaskan season will be a go (fingers crossed!!)  🐳

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It would be absolutely devastating to the Alaska economy to have another cruise season cancelled.  I hope that something can be worked out.  If not convincing Canada to allow vaccinated people to visit, perhaps there can be some temporary modification of the law to allow US only sailings. 

 

I am not the decision maker obviously, but it seems to me that if the cruise lines begin requiring proof of full vaccination prior to boarding, and if flights going into Canada also require the same, why in the world wouldn't they allow travel to begin?  I realize Canada does not depend on tourism to the extent that Alaska does, but it is certainly a big part of the economy in Vancouver I would guess.  I realize there remains some level of risk even with that approach (forged documents, 5% still susceptible despite vaccination, etc.) but all in all the risk seems pretty low - certainly not of the level to spread the virus rampantly anywhere.  I also think that with a new leader in the US, the relations and virus controlling trust between the two nations may be significantly more cordial.  We can hope.

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Until such time as Celebrity or any other line implements a hard and fast vaccination requirement for all passengers and crew, it really doesn't matter what percentage of US or other countries' populations have been vaccinated. As these boards clearly indicate, there are members of the cruising community who simply refuse to get a vaccination, so without it being made a non-negotiable requirement to board, I don't think that Canadian ports on either coast are going to open any time soon. The exception might be if the vaccinations result in a truly significant drop in the number of COVID cases.

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8 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

Until such time as Celebrity or any other line implements a hard and fast vaccination requirement for all passengers and crew, it really doesn't matter what percentage of US or other countries' populations have been vaccinated. As these boards clearly indicate, there are members of the cruising community who simply refuse to get a vaccination, so without it being made a non-negotiable requirement to board, I don't think that Canadian ports on either coast are going to open any time soon. The exception might be if the vaccinations result in a truly significant drop in the number of COVID cases.

Makes sense.

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4 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

Until such time as Celebrity or any other line implements a hard and fast vaccination requirement for all passengers and crew, it really doesn't matter what percentage of US or other countries' populations have been vaccinated. As these boards clearly indicate, there are members of the cruising community who simply refuse to get a vaccination, so without it being made a non-negotiable requirement to board, I don't think that Canadian ports on either coast are going to open any time soon. The exception might be if the vaccinations result in a truly significant drop in the number of COVID cases.

Canada has said the acceptable level of COVID is close to zero.  Cannot see the border and ports allowing travel without proof of vaccination in 2021.  Testing has not worked to eliminate COVID on board. 😔  Thus it will require the next step - a CDC or similar card.

Allowing US only cruises?  Why?  How would this help resume?  Will Seattle open before Vancouver?  Also the number of cruises would drop by half with only Seattle and Seward as a port of origin

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43 minutes ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Canada has said the acceptable level of COVID is close to zero.  Cannot see the border and ports allowing travel without proof of vaccination in 2021.  Testing has not worked to eliminate COVID on board. 😔  Thus it will require the next step - a CDC or similar card.

Allowing US only cruises?  Why?  How would this help resume?  Will Seattle open before Vancouver?  Also the number of cruises would drop by half with only Seattle and Seward as a port of origin

Which cannot happen under the PVSA.

We're not giving up on our Alaska cruise but are realistically thinking it will not happen: 75/25 against.

Edited by CHEZMARYLOU
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21 hours ago, Fouremco said:

Until such time as Celebrity or any other line implements a hard and fast vaccination requirement for all passengers and crew, it really doesn't matter what percentage of US or other countries' populations have been vaccinated. As these boards clearly indicate, there are members of the cruising community who simply refuse to get a vaccination, so without it being made a non-negotiable requirement to board, I don't think that Canadian ports on either coast are going to open any time soon. The exception might be if the vaccinations result in a truly significant drop in the number of COVID cases.

It should be pretty clear to everybody by now that despite social distancing, lockdowns, masks, testing, and every other thing that society has done to contain this beastly virus, it is still out there and it comes roaring back every time.  Even in countries that were initially successful.  So vaccination appears to be our only hope.  And we are lucky enough to have vaccines now.  So this does not end until enough people get vaccinated.

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55 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

So this does not end until enough people get vaccinated.

Here in Ontario, the government in its infinite wisdom decided not to administer vaccinations on Christmas and Boxing Day, then reopened less than 1/3 of the facilities for the next two days, only coming back to full capacity today. Officials defended the decision based on the need to give staff time off over the holidays, but there has been a tremendous response from members of the medical community who have said that they would have happily volunteered if they had only been asked. So far, Ontario has done abysmally in rolling out the vaccination program, lagging far behind initial projections. Getting enough people vaccinated, at least in Ontario, remains a long way off. :classic_sad:

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24 minutes ago, maryann2 said:

Interesting that EU is keeping a list of those who refuse to take the vaccine.  Not to be published but shared between EU nations.

Oh goodness, if they did that here in the US...I shudder to think what could happen!  

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2 hours ago, Fouremco said:

Here in Ontario, the government in its infinite wisdom decided not to administer vaccinations on Christmas and Boxing Day, then reopened less than 1/3 of the facilities for the next two days, only coming back to full capacity today. Officials defended the decision based on the need to give staff time off over the holidays, but there has been a tremendous response from members of the medical community who have said that they would have happily volunteered if they had only been asked. So far, Ontario has done abysmally in rolling out the vaccination program, lagging far behind initial projections. Getting enough people vaccinated, at least in Ontario, remains a long way off. :classic_sad:

 Very disappointed in our government right now.  Taking a break should not have been an option........the virus doesn’t take a break....smh.  We live in a small town northwest of Toronto on Georgian Bay and hope that we even have an opportunity to get the vaccine this summer.  We’re booked on a cruise in October and just pray we get ours well before then.

 

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3 hours ago, Fouremco said:

Here in Ontario, the government in its infinite wisdom decided not to administer vaccinations on Christmas and Boxing Day, then reopened less than 1/3 of the facilities for the next two days, only coming back to full capacity today. Officials defended the decision based on the need to give staff time off over the holidays, but there has been a tremendous response from members of the medical community who have said that they would have happily volunteered if they had only been asked. So far, Ontario has done abysmally in rolling out the vaccination program, lagging far behind initial projections. Getting enough people vaccinated, at least in Ontario, remains a long way off. :classic_sad:

In the US, they said in October, we would have had 100 million vaccinated by end of year.  Then they revised that to 40 million, then they revised that to 20 million.  Now with the expected Xmas surge into January...God help us one and all!

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3 hours ago, Fouremco said:

Here in Ontario, the government in its infinite wisdom decided not to administer vaccinations on Christmas and Boxing Day, then reopened less than 1/3 of the facilities for the next two days, only coming back to full capacity today. Officials defended the decision based on the need to give staff time off over the holidays, but there has been a tremendous response from members of the medical community who have said that they would have happily volunteered if they had only been asked. So far, Ontario has done abysmally in rolling out the vaccination program, lagging far behind initial projections. Getting enough people vaccinated, at least in Ontario, remains a long way off. :classic_sad:

My hubby had just 8 Christmases off in our first 30 years together. He worked 48 hour shifts over Christmas Eve and Christmas multiple times. Only once did he have both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day off. I guarantee you, he would have volunteered to work any holiday he was scheduled to have off if it meant doing the sort of good that could have been done by allowing vaccinations on the 25th and 26th. In other words, I absolutely believe that medical professionals would gladly have worked to vaccinate others if they had been asked. 

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1 hour ago, Lady Arwen said:

 Very disappointed in our government right now.  Taking a break should not have been an option........the virus doesn’t take a break....smh.  We live in a small town northwest of Toronto on Georgian Bay and hope that we even have an opportunity to get the vaccine this summer.  We’re booked on a cruise in October and just pray we get ours well before then.

 

Unless you are an Ontario healthcare worker, longterm care or retirement home resident, or indigenous community member, you won't be eligible until Phase 3, when vaccinations will be available for everyone wanting one. As that includes the vast majority of Ontarians, with no sub-groupings as far as I can see, I'm not counting on receiving mine until late summer at the earliest. I hope that small-town Ontario fares better. 

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1 hour ago, LGW59 said:

In the US, they said in October, we would have had 100 million vaccinated by end of year.  Then they revised that to 40 million, then they revised that to 20 million.  Now with the expected Xmas surge into January...God help us one and all!

Yes, projections have the same downward trend here.

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On 12/28/2020 at 10:56 AM, phoenix_dream said:

It would be absolutely devastating to the Alaska economy to have another cruise season cancelled.  I hope that something can be worked out.  If not convincing Canada to allow vaccinated people to visit, perhaps there can be some temporary modification of the law to allow US only sailings. 

 

I am not the decision maker obviously, but it seems to me that if the cruise lines begin requiring proof of full vaccination prior to boarding, and if flights going into Canada also require the same, why in the world wouldn't they allow travel to begin?  I realize Canada does not depend on tourism to the extent that Alaska does, but it is certainly a big part of the economy in Vancouver I would guess.  I realize there remains some level of risk even with that approach (forged documents, 5% still susceptible despite vaccination, etc.) but all in all the risk seems pretty low - certainly not of the level to spread the virus rampantly anywhere.  I also think that with a new leader in the US, the relations and virus controlling trust between the two nations may be significantly more cordial.  We can hope.

If they cancel another cruise season it will devastate our economy on the East Coast of Canada as well (and already has) but that will not drive the decision. Most Canadian officials are conservative with respect to health and our healthcare system is extremely fragile (especially in the East). The premier of BC has said many times he will be playing it as safe as possible, but of course he hopes the vaccine will allow the economy to open up more. I think cruising will be the very last freedom to be granted in Canada, on both coasts. 

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1 hour ago, MamaFej said:

My hubby had just 8 Christmases off in our first 30 years together. He worked 48 hour shifts over Christmas Eve and Christmas multiple times. Only once did he have both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day off. I guarantee you, he would have volunteered to work any holiday he was scheduled to have off if it meant doing the sort of good that could have been done by allowing vaccinations on the 25th and 26th. In other words, I absolutely believe that medical professionals would gladly have worked to vaccinate others if they had been asked. 

People like your husband are an inspiration for us all, one of the unsung heroes... 

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On 12/27/2020 at 10:54 AM, Blackduck59 said:

 

We've been over this before, no Canadian stop, no Alaska Cruise, there has to be a "Foreign" port. Right now the 2 Solstice class ships usually on the Alaska cruises are both in the Philippines. So who knows what is in store. Maybe get started with some paying customers in Asia where the CDC and Health Canada rules don't apply?

I'm not familiar with your legal system, but can an executive order not be used to temporarily allow US-only cruises, to protect the Alaskan economy?

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I am hopeful.  We have August cruise plans for Alaska.  It includes only one Canadian port and it is in the evening.  Maybe we port and stay on board. I could lift and shift once again if they allow it but I don't want FCC because rumor has it the 125 percent doesn't cover the future pricing.  

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2 minutes ago, sydbarrett said:

I'm not familiar with your legal system, but can an executive order not be used to temporarily allow US-only cruises, to protect the Alaskan economy?

Syd, @Blackduck59 is a fellow Canadian, albeit on the other coast, so he might be the wrong one to ask about US executive orders.

 

Another point to factor into the equation: Alaska has instituted visitor policies not dissimilar to what's in place with the Maritime bubble. Everyone is biting at the bit to get Alaskan cruises underway, but do Alaskans want that? There's no question that the lack of cruises has a negative impact on the economy, but, like the Maritimes, Alaska has so far opted on the side of caution.

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2 minutes ago, mimbecky said:

I am hopeful.  We have August cruise plans for Alaska.  It includes only one Canadian port and it is in the evening.  Maybe we port and stay on board. I could lift and shift once again if they allow it but I don't want FCC because rumor has it the 125 percent doesn't cover the future pricing.  

No, not under Canadian legislation. You will not be able to enter port at all.

 

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42 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

Syd, @Blackduck59 is a fellow Canadian, albeit on the other coast, so he might be the wrong one to ask about US executive orders.

 

Another point to factor into the equation: Alaska has instituted visitor policies not dissimilar to what's in place with the Maritime bubble. Everyone is biting at the bit to get Alaskan cruises underway, but do Alaskans want that? There's no question that the lack of cruises has a negative impact on the economy, but, like the Maritimes, Alaska has so far opted on the side of caution.

Oops! Thanks! 🙂 

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I just got an email from the small independent whale watch excursion company in Juneau, Jayleen's Alaska, that she is no longer requiring 50% deposits in January to hold our excursion.  We will pay in full 2 weeks before the tour.  This does not bode well for Alaska in 2021. We are still 75/25 against being able to cruise to Alaska in 2021.

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