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Carnival Corp and plc business update coming Mon, Jan 11!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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Oh the naysayers. Good news could come in the form of increased cost reductions, an updated cruise restart date with a higher confidence level, long term debt refinancing, lower interest short term financing paying down higher interest short term debt, etc.

 

Reducing expense and cost of debt could lead to earlier profitability once cruising restarts in the US. or not.

 

 

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Not usual with the financial call but definitely a business update: I would love to see them announce a corporate wide restart plan which includes vaccination and redeployment of crews. Definitely some operational good news to offset the financial bad news.

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4 hours ago, Joebucks said:

Prediction: we have lost lots of money. We still aren't sure when we will cruise. We are looking into it though.

Oh I predict they will say we hope to restart cruises april 1st, lol. Isnt that what they always say? John always does the company line and says they plan on restarting whatever the next date is. 

 

They cant say they dont know, or later or people would ask for refunds. 

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4 hours ago, firefly333 said:

They cant say they dont know, or later or people would ask for refunds. 

 

Why would Carnival care if a few more asked for refunds? As I pointed out earlier, customer deposits are kept separate on the balance sheet under current liabilities. Carnival has more than enough cash to refund everyone, but of course, most won't ask for refunds. And if a few asked for refunds, Carnival is off the hook for the $600/$300 OBC that a few fret about.

 

In other news, Carnival filed an 8-K today

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/b4970cf1-f0b3-49a3-8dc7-7deed8068b9c

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45 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Why would Carnival care if a few more asked for refunds? As I pointed out earlier, customer deposits are kept separate on the balance sheet under current liabilities. Carnival has more than enough cash to refund everyone, but of course, most won't ask for refunds. And if a few asked for refunds, Carnival is off the hook for the $600/$300 OBC that a few fret about.

 

In other news, Carnival filed an 8-K today

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/b4970cf1-f0b3-49a3-8dc7-7deed8068b9c

in another post you say 600 means nothing to carnival and now all of a sudden  it does?

whatever- the buzzards are circling

If they have your money I would get it back and rebook once they restart "its your money" - do you really trust what this guy says!!!!

trust your own gut and mine says GET OUT NOW so I did today full refund keep your $600 carnival and see you on the other end of this "hopefully"

 

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1 hour ago, ericr said:

in another post you say 600 means nothing to carnival and now all of a sudden  it does?

whatever- the buzzards are circling

If they have your money I would get it back and rebook once they restart "its your money" - do you really trust what this guy says!!!!

trust your own gut and mine says GET OUT NOW so I did today full refund keep your $600 carnival and see you on the other end of this "hopefully"

 

 

I stated $600 doesn't cost Carnival $600 and helps prime the pump for more onboard spend for Carnival. I think it is much smarter than handing out 125% FCCs.

 

Over the years I have made a lot of money off of Carnival stock including via dividends and shareholder OBC. Carnival isn't going anywhere whatever the naysayers think.

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11 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

I stated $600 doesn't cost Carnival $600 and helps prime the pump for more onboard spend for Carnival. I think it is much smarter than handing out 125% FCCs.

 

Over the years I have made a lot of money off of Carnival stock including via dividends and shareholder OBC. Carnival isn't going anywhere whatever the naysayers think.

good for you, 

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The company filed an 8K today that looks like they have received some relief on the terms of a revolving credit line. The bad news is it is from an arm of Bank of America and further boxes the company in by not allowing other uses of vessel equity, and prohibits issuance of preferred stock or any instrument that would subordinate the Bank. In my opinion a predatory business practice.

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On 1/6/2021 at 8:04 PM, BlerkOne said:

 

Why would Carnival care if a few more asked for refunds? As I pointed out earlier, customer deposits are kept separate on the balance sheet under current liabilities. Carnival has more than enough cash to refund everyone, but of course, most won't ask for refunds. And if a few asked for refunds, Carnival is off the hook for the $600/$300 OBC that a few fret about.

 

In other news, Carnival filed an 8-K today

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/b4970cf1-f0b3-49a3-8dc7-7deed8068b9c

While on the BS they are kept separate, the are NOT kept separate from a cash perspective.  They are not the same as a security deposit collected in regards to rent.  That carries a fiduciary responsibility with it, prepaid revenue (which is what this is) does not.  The cash collected goes directly into their general operating cash account.... so yes, they do care if more asked for refunds.

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11 hours ago, Buckeyefrank100 said:

While on the BS they are kept separate, the are NOT kept separate from a cash perspective.  They are not the same as a security deposit collected in regards to rent.  That carries a fiduciary responsibility with it, prepaid revenue (which is what this is) does not.  The cash collected goes directly into their general operating cash account.... so yes, they do care if more asked for refunds.

Nah, they don't care. The more people who ask for refunds, the slower the process, as we have seen. The impact to cash on hand can be throttled. However, Carnival has pumped up cash on hand and seems to have no trouble keeping it relatively constant . Unearned revenue is a liability from an unsecured creditor which bankruptcy solves, but Carnival isn't going to go bankrupt.

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20 hours ago, Moviela said:

The company filed an 8K today that looks like they have received some relief on the terms of a revolving credit line. The bad news is it is from an arm of Bank of America and further boxes the company in by not allowing other uses of vessel equity, and prohibits issuance of preferred stock or any instrument that would subordinate the Bank. In my opinion a predatory business practice.

 

Most, if not all ships are already pledged for collateral. The first item, however, is noteworthy

 

increases the ratio of debt to capitalization from the testing date on November 30, 2021 to February 28, 2024 (Clause 26.3 of the FacilityAgreement as amended by the Amendment Agreement (the “Amended Facility Agreement”)), expanding the limit of the debt to capitalization...

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On 1/6/2021 at 11:44 AM, BlerkOne said:

Oh the naysayers. Good news could come in the form of increased cost reductions, an updated cruise restart date with a higher confidence level, long term debt refinancing, lower interest short term financing paying down higher interest short term debt, etc.

 

Reducing expense and cost of debt could lead to earlier profitability once cruising restarts in the US. or not.

 

 

Good point 👍

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I freed up a little cash Friday in anticipation of this going down to the $15-$17 level. If so, we buy back in to make another quick turn around of gains. Anything is speculation with cruise stocks though. Without direct CDC statements for the US, any earning report is going to be filled with best possible scenario information to try to hold share price. Personally, my FA and my belief are that cruising won't start until Summer at the earliest (pure speculation). Our mutual belief is CCL and NCLH are coming down about $4 each in the next week or so. The plan is to jump in then for a 200-250% return over a 5 year period.

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Carnival should close out the year with 9.5 billion in cash and equivalents. Cash burn down to $500 million/month. 2022 bookings ahead of 2019 levels!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Carnival indicates in the earnings call that they have enough liquidity to survive 2021 even in a non revenue environment. This appears to indicate that Carnival does not expect cruising to return in the near future ( 3 to 4 months). It would seem that Fall may be the earliest. Prepare for another round of cancellations through 6/30. Also, Carnival will scrap another 4 ships that have not been named. This will bring the total to 19. Wish there was better news.

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