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WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT CRUISES WILL START IN 2021 OR 2022


mcrcruiser
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On 2/8/2021 at 6:50 AM, mcrcruiser said:

Our cruises are starting in Feb 2022 ,Sept 2022 & April 2023  . We did not book in 2021 because we felt that the vaccines   & vaccinations would be not sufficient through  out the cruising world

 

 What say you?

 

 

We rebooked our 8/21 10 day Alaskan cruise out of SF for a year later in 8/22. 🤞🏼🤞🏼

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8 hours ago, welshy74 said:

Contemplating booking a Scandinavia and Russia cruise on Sky Princess, departing Southampton on 18th August 2021.  My heart says do it, but my head says not a chance.   Vaccine program is speeding up in UK and I am due my vaccine in April, 2nd in June/July, so most people in UK will be vaccinated by mid August.  What to do?????

The issue is will Scandinavia and Russia allow cruise ships into port ? Personally, I can't see it happening. We have booked a Med cruise on Sky, leaving late October 21. Only think theres a 50% chance of it happening,  but the price was dirt cheap, and the deposit only £50 pp, so we took a punt! 

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3 hours ago, JimmyVWine said:

So much is wrong with these "facts".  But let's stick to the math.  With two doses per person needed for complete vaccination, we would need 656 million doses to vaccinate everyone in the United States by April 1.  Your post above promises us 100 million doses each by Moderna and Pfizer by March 31.  That is 200 million doses that will vaccinate 100 million people.  You go on to say that each will then add another 100 million doses, (200 million doses covering another 100 million people) by June 1.  So by your own aggressive math, 200 million people out of 328 million people will be (can be) vaccinated by the end of June.  (Remember, having the doses available on June 1 does not mean that the doses are in the arms by June 1.  You have to add in at least another month for distribution.)  So you have in one breath told us that anyone can have a shot by April 1, but you then laid out math that shows that only two-thirds of the country can be vaccinated by June 30.  

 

Warp Speed is a slogan, not a solution.  I don't think that the good people in Oxford working on the Moderna vaccine even heard of the phrase.  https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55041371  The term isn't even mentioned in this piece.  

JimmyV, So much wrong with your analysis.  Moderna and Pfizer requires 2 shots.  400 million shots equal 200 million people  that can get the vaccine. Johnson and Johnson requires 1 shot.  100 million doses of the Johnson and Johnson equals 100 million people can get the vaccinated .   Population in United States 323 million.  CDC says that 60% to 70% of the population  will want to be vaccinated.   Sticking to the math, based on the above data and facts, anyone that wants the to be vaccinated will be able to do so by May.

You say that Operation Warp Speed is a slogan and not a solution. Have you read the government web site for Operation Warp Speed.  If it wasn't for Operation Warp Speed, we would not have vaccines, we would not have the distribution system from manufactures the  McKesson distribution centers and out to the vaccine sites.  If it wasn't for Operation Warp Speed,  we received a vaccine was developed  in 5 months  instead  of 5 to 10 years that it took in the past.  JimmyV, you stated that "the good  people at Oxford working on the Moderna vaccine never heard of the the phase (Operation Warp Speed).   Again, you have the wrong facts.  Oxford is not working on the Moderna vacinne,   Moderna Corporation developed the vaccine.  Oxford is working on its own vaccine that was also funded by Operation Warp Speed.  

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My guess is for any resemblence of a normal cruise not until 2023 and I expect that will be very different than we are used to.  It seems Covid is going to be with us for life I am afraid.  It will just be how the world will manage/not manage it to get back to a type of normal life, our "new normal"

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26 minutes ago, cheone said:

JimmyV, So much wrong with your analysis.  Moderna and Pfizer requires 2 shots.  400 million shots equal 200 million people  that can get the vaccine. Johnson and Johnson requires 1 shot.  100 million doses of the Johnson and Johnson equals 100 million people can get the vaccinated .   Population in United States 323 million.  CDC says that 60% to 70% of the population  will want to be vaccinated.   Sticking to the math, based on the above data and facts, anyone that wants the to be vaccinated will be able to do so by May.

You say that Operation Warp Speed is a slogan and not a solution. Have you read the government web site for Operation Warp Speed.  If it wasn't for Operation Warp Speed, we would not have vaccines, we would not have the distribution system from manufactures the  McKesson distribution centers and out to the vaccine sites.  If it wasn't for Operation Warp Speed,  we received a vaccine was developed  in 5 months  instead  of 5 to 10 years that it took in the past.  JimmyV, you stated that "the good  people at Oxford working on the Moderna vaccine never heard of the the phase (Operation Warp Speed).   Again, you have the wrong facts.  Oxford is not working on the Moderna vacinne,   Moderna Corporation developed the vaccine.  Oxford is working on its own vaccine that was also funded by Operation Warp Speed.  

 

The Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine has nothing to do with "Operation Warpspeed" You do realize that Oxford is in the UK as is AstraZeneca.

The Pfizer vaccine was developed in Germany by a German company.

 

The real question is will there be an adequate supply to inoculate the population of the world in a timely fashion before more mutations develop?

 

Mexico is currently suffering badly from COVID-19.

 

I do not expect cruising to Mexico to start until sometime in 2022

Edited by brisalta
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34 minutes ago, cheone said:

JimmyV, So much wrong with your analysis.  Moderna and Pfizer requires 2 shots.  400 million shots equal 200 million people  that can get the vaccine. Johnson and Johnson requires 1 shot.  100 million doses of the Johnson and Johnson equals 100 million people can get the vaccinated .   Population in United States 323 million.  CDC says that 60% to 70% of the population  will want to be vaccinated.   Sticking to the math, based on the above data and facts, anyone that wants the to be vaccinated will be able to do so by May.

You say that Operation Warp Speed is a slogan and not a solution. Have you read the government web site for Operation Warp Speed.  If it wasn't for Operation Warp Speed, we would not have vaccines, we would not have the distribution system from manufactures the  McKesson distribution centers and out to the vaccine sites.  If it wasn't for Operation Warp Speed,  we received a vaccine was developed  in 5 months  instead  of 5 to 10 years that it took in the past.  JimmyV, you stated that "the good  people at Oxford working on the Moderna vaccine never heard of the the phase (Operation Warp Speed).   Again, you have the wrong facts.  Oxford is not working on the Moderna vacinne,   Moderna Corporation developed the vaccine.  Oxford is working on its own vaccine that was also funded by Operation Warp Speed.  

Wait.  What?  We went from "Anyone in the USA will be able to get a covid shot by April,..." to "... anyone that wants the [sic] to be vaccinated will be able to do so by May."

Thank you for proving my point.  And just watch.  Your "May" will become my "End of June" at best.  Mark it down.

 

And: "Moderna Corporation developed the vaccine.  Oxford is working on its own vaccine that was also funded by Operation Warp Speed."

 

Ummm. No.  Just  no.  Please read the link I posted earlier.

Edited by JimmyVWine
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21 minutes ago, cheone said:

JimmyV, So much wrong with your analysis.  Moderna and Pfizer requires 2 shots.  400 million shots equal 200 million people  that can get the vaccine. Johnson and Johnson requires 1 shot.  100 million doses of the Johnson and Johnson equals 100 million people can get the vaccinated .   Population in United States 323 million.  CDC says that 60% to 70% of the population  will want to be vaccinated.   Sticking to the math, based on the above data and facts, anyone that wants the to be vaccinated will be able to do so by May.

You say that Operation Warp Speed is a slogan and not a solution. Have you read the government web site for Operation Warp Speed.  If it wasn't for Operation Warp Speed, we would not have vaccines, we would not have the distribution system from manufactures the  McKesson distribution centers and out to the vaccine sites.  If it wasn't for Operation Warp Speed,  we received a vaccine was developed  in 5 months  instead  of 5 to 10 years that it took in the past.  JimmyV, you stated that "the good  people at Oxford working on the Moderna vaccine never heard of the the phase (Operation Warp Speed).   Again, you have the wrong facts.  Oxford is not working on the Moderna vacinne,   Moderna Corporation developed the vaccine.  Oxford is working on its own vaccine that was also funded by Operation Warp Speed.  

Operation Warp Speed said 20 million Americans would be vaccinated by the end of December 2020.  It never happened just like some of the points in your statement.

 

Maybe you might want to read this article “How Operation Warp Speed Created Vaccination Chaos.” 
https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/health/how-operation-warp-speed-created-vaccination-chaos-20210121

 

Because of this chaos we will be cruising a lot later then was necessary if things had been handled correctly.  Just look to other countries who have been successful at controlling the viruses.

 

I still doubt the US will be lucky enough to have cruises this year.  Still hoping that maybe you might be somewhat correct and we can do our sail in November 2021.

 

 


 

 

 

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5 hours ago, oskidunker said:

The question might be what ports will be open in Europe in the fall?

 

i have a Norway cruise and one to Spain and Portugal.  I am hoping at least norway will be open.

A lot of speculation on UK boards that scenic cruises (no port stops) of Norway may be possible in the Autumn. I think Norway will be reluctant to allow passengers ashore this year.

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18 minutes ago, wowzz said:

A lot of speculation on UK boards that scenic cruises (no port stops) of Norway may be possible in the Autumn.

 

Since US law does not allow cruises to nowhere from USA ports, such an option would not be available here.

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2 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

However, US law does not allow cruises to nowhere from USA ports, so such an option would not be available here.

Yes, but I was replying to oskidunker and his comment that he had a cruise to Norway booked this year. I'm assuming that his cruise to Norway does not begin and end in the US.

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1 minute ago, wowzz said:

Yes, but I was replying to oskidunker and his comment that he had a cruise to Norway booked this year. I'm assuming that his cruise to Norway does not begin and end in the US.

 

I realize that. I was just pointing out it may end up being OK from the UK, but "cruise to nowhere" would not be an option here.

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One of the undiscussed issues are the vaccines for children and those in their reproductive years. I am very close to a doctor who specializes in men's fertility and he gave this analysis based on what he knows today. He took the Moderna willingly and his wife will when it is available to her age group (40+) but they likely won't have their children vaccinated because of the lack of long term research on fertility. I agree with this position.

 

So, where does that put herd immunity? It seems that some form of COVID will be in our future for many years to come. Is it enough if the older and more vulnerable population keeps up with their yearly vaccinations? Back to normal is not in our future.

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27 minutes ago, Markanddonna said:

One of the undiscussed issues are the vaccines for children and those in their reproductive years. I am very close to a doctor who specializes in men's fertility and he gave this analysis based on what he knows today. He took the Moderna willingly and his wife will when it is available to her age group (40+) but they likely won't have their children vaccinated because of the lack of long term research on fertility. I agree with this position.

 

So, where does that put herd immunity? It seems that some form of COVID will be in our future for many years to come. Is it enough if the older and more vulnerable population keeps up with their yearly vaccinations? Back to normal is not in our future.

The COVID vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna are mRNA vaccines; they do not contain live virus. This means the vaccines are not likely to increase the risk of infertility, first or second trimester pregnancy loss, or birth defects. 

You are more likely to die from CV19 as a result of not having the vaccine, than become infertile from being vaccinated!

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13 hours ago, oskidunker said:

The question might be what ports will be open in Europe in the fall?

 

i have a Norway cruise and one to Spain and Portugal.  I am hoping at least norway will be open.

 

We have not been able to visit our family in Norway because right now they have their borders closed to only National Norwegians and a few other select categories.  

 

in the past they have had the requirement of a negative Covid test 24 hours prior to entry and you must quarantine for 10 days in specific hotels or your residence if you own one.  We are not allowed to quarantine with our family as visitors are allowed to return again.

 

Norway has been very successful in controlling the virus and my family basically quit wearing masks over 6 months ago and basically have normal lives again.  

 

I doubt Norway will be that eager to open its borders to  cruising because of the risks that cruising could bring for the spread of Covid-19 and their economy does not really rely on tourism.  Economically they are an energy producer (oil country) and one of the better off countries in the world economically.

Edited by PrincessLuver
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1 hour ago, wowzz said:

The COVID vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna are mRNA vaccines; they do not contain live virus. This means the vaccines are not likely to increase the risk of infertility, first or second trimester pregnancy loss, or birth defects. 

You are more likely to die from CV19 as a result of not having the vaccine, than become infertile from being vaccinated!

Do you have any scientific studies to cite?  

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The #1 cruise most likely to go is the inner USA cruise- the December 2021 San Francisco to Hawaii 15 day Princess voyage is a slam dunk. I am willing to make a bet with anyone who wants to put money on this particular voyage moving ahead comment below.

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19 hours ago, Markanddonna said:

One of the undiscussed issues are the vaccines for children and those in their reproductive years. I am very close to a doctor who specializes in men's fertility and he gave this analysis based on what he knows today. He took the Moderna willingly and his wife will when it is available to her age group (40+) but they likely won't have their children vaccinated because of the lack of long term research on fertility. I agree with this position.

 

 

With the vaccines having EUAs after less than three months of phase 3 testing, there is no long term research on many possible effects of the vaccines, not just fertility.

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24 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

With the vaccines having EUAs after less than three months of phase 3 testing, there is no long term research on many possible effects of the vaccines, not just fertility.

No different to many other vaccines introduced quite safely in recent years. 

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3 hours ago, wowzz said:

No different to many other vaccines introduced quite safely in recent years. 

So, if I had an eleven year old daughter, this is what I'd be thinking; Vaccine: no scientific data on future complications for her. The worst case scenarior is for her to contract COVID 19. As a healthy young lady, she has a +99.9% chance of recovery from COVID. 

I can understand why parents of healthy children might be hesitant for them to receive the vaccine. On the other hand, the world will likely never get this under control without full compliance with a a vaccine. 

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3 minutes ago, Markanddonna said:

So, if I had an eleven year old daughter, this is what I'd be thinking; Vaccine: no scientific data on future complications for her. The worst case scenarior is for her to contract COVID 19. As a healthy young lady, she has a +99.9% chance of recovery from COVID. 

I can understand why parents of healthy children might be hesitant for them to receive the vaccine. On the other hand, the world will likely never get this under control without full compliance with a a vaccine. 

Not sure about the US,  but in the UK there is no intention to vaccinate the under 18s. 

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On 2/9/2021 at 5:12 PM, JimmyVWine said:

Wait.  What?  We went from "Anyone in the USA will be able to get a covid shot by April,..." to "... anyone that wants the [sic] to be vaccinated will be able to do so by May."

Thank you for proving my point.  And just watch.  Your "May" will become my "End of June" at best.  Mark it down.

 

And: "Moderna Corporation developed the vaccine.  Oxford is working on its own vaccine that was also funded by Operation Warp Speed."

 

Ummm. No.  Just  no.  Please read the link I posted earlier.

Dr Fauci just announced that there will be enough vaccine supply by April to allow anyone who wants a shot to begin getting one.

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