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WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT CRUISES WILL START IN 2021 OR 2022


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2 minutes ago, mjmalino said:

Absolutely, all of these cruise lines are patiently waiting for direction from the CDC. The CDC came out with their Framework back in October, and was supposed to provide additional guidance in order for the cruise lines to begin their test cruises. The CDC still has not provided that guidance.

Not a peep!  The framework doesn't even take into account the potential benefits of vaccines.  It is written as if they anticipated there would be no vaccines out there.  So now that vaccines are here, being distributed, and Covid numbers sharply dropping, the CDC is leaving the entire industry and customers in limbo.  IMHO CDC has been committing malfeasance on this since the 'Framework' came out - they can call it what they will, but it's still the same old Cruise Ban they were told to end.

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6 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

Not a peep!  The framework doesn't even take into account the potential benefits of vaccines.  It is written as if they anticipated there would be no vaccines out there.  So now that vaccines are here, being distributed, and Covid numbers sharply dropping, the CDC is leaving the entire industry and customers in limbo.  IMHO CDC has been committing malfeasance on this since the 'Framework' came out - they can call it what they will, but it's still the same old Cruise Ban they were told to end.

I agree.

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On 2/26/2021 at 12:33 PM, megolf4 said:

1) Cruising from the United States....Will be limited to short Caribbean Cruises, primarily out of Port Canaveral, Port Everglades, and Port Miami.  Starting July, 2021.

 

 

I could see one of the first cruises going in the US would be the NCL Pride of America in Hawaii.  It only sails in Hawaiian waters and HI already has the Safe Travelers Program where visitors have to test Covid negative 72 hours before arriving and on some islands they get tested again when they land.  Plus this has always been a popular cruise itinerary for NCL.  Just saying.......

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38 minutes ago, Cali Viajera said:

American Cruise Lines have not cancelled their end of March sailings.

US courts are beginning to weigh in on onerous lockdown conditions, but somebody needs to bring the case.  Maybe American Cruise Lines is looking to challenge the CDC for not having enough science to justify the shut down of an industry.  IIRC American Cruise Lines is requiring all PAX, crew and any other persons to be vaccinated before they can board one of their vessels.  I don't think the CDC will be relaxing anything anytime soon even in the light of safe and effective vaccines.  I think it's going to take a federal court to order relaxation of lockdown requirements from the CDC due to the availability of vaccines..

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3 hours ago, Cruise-Crazzy said:

Limited cruises will occur September or October 2021.  All ships will be cruising by June 2022.

 

Is that Europe, US, Far East or Australia? 

Some facts to back up your statement would be appreciated.

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1 hour ago, wowzz said:

Is that Europe, US, Far East or Australia? 

Some facts to back up your statement would be appreciated.

 

We don't need facts in the land where people seem to believe that CDC stands for Cruise Decision Center -- as if there is nothing else on their plate.

 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Daniel A said:

US courts are beginning to weigh in on onerous lockdown conditions, but somebody needs to bring the case.  Maybe American Cruise Lines is looking to challenge the CDC for not having enough science to justify the shut down of an industry.  IIRC American Cruise Lines is requiring all PAX, crew and any other persons to be vaccinated before they can board one of their vessels.  I don't think the CDC will be relaxing anything anytime soon even in the light of safe and effective vaccines.  I think it's going to take a federal court to order relaxation of lockdown requirements from the CDC due to the availability of vaccines..

If you think a court case would make a difference go ahead and file one.  Tell us all how you do. The CDC clearly has the authority to do what they are doing when it comes to cruises leaving from or coming to the US, as well as crossing state lines.

 

From my understanding American cruise lines is limiting the number of passenger such that they will fall under the CDC limit so it does not apply to them.  They were going to cruise last year when the ban was in place but a couple of states stopped them

Edited by nocl
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2 hours ago, nocl said:

If you think a court case would make a difference go ahead and file one.  Tell us all how you do. The CDC clearly has the authority to do what they are doing when it comes to cruises leaving from or coming to the US, as well as crossing state lines.

Wow, I thought higher of your opinions, but I never saw you get snarky like this.  The CDC like any government agency is subject to operation under US laws.  The CDC doesn't necessarily have the clear authority to shut down interstate and international commerce without ample justification.  This is the type of concepts the courts are starting to recognize.  What measures were put into place a year ago may no longer be justifiable.  Obviously, I must have struck a nerve to get such an unmeasured response such as this one from you.  IIRC, your governor is being subjected to a recall effort for just this type of similar over reach shutting down free enterprise.  Government agencies are not the final word even if they say they are.  I'm truly sorry if I have upset you, I always used to value your input on these boards.

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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

Wow, I thought higher of your opinions, but I never saw you get snarky like this.  The CDC like any government agency is subject to operation under US laws.  The CDC doesn't necessarily have the clear authority to shut down interstate and international commerce without ample justification.  This is the type of concepts the courts are starting to recognize.  What measures were put into place a year ago may no longer be justifiable.  Obviously, I must have struck a nerve to get such an unmeasured response such as this one from you.  IIRC, your governor is being subjected to a recall effort for just this type of similar over reach shutting down free enterprise.  Government agencies are not the final word even if they say they are.  I'm truly sorry if I have upset you, I always used to value your input on these boards.

If you are so certain that they would lose sue them.  If they lose you can collect your legal expenses.  Not being snarky just stating a fact. 

 

The laws are pretty clear the CDC can take whatever action they feel is necessary in an epidemic situation concerning the US boarders once a state of emergency has been declared.

 

So as far as a court case it would go something like this  1. Is there an epidemic  2. Has a state of emergency been declared by the appropriate authorities  3. Has the CDC followed required process

 

The authority and laws are clear. Would you like a list of the appropriate codes that give them the authority.  You will find them at the start of the CDC  Conditional Sailing Order document.

 

They also do have legal authority concerning interstate travel if appropriate action has not been taken by local authorities.

 

The only action that the CDC has taken that I believe is on shaky ground and is likely an over reach is when they supported the eviction moratorium.  That is one that a court might find against them.

 

The cruise line restrictions, not a chance.

 

As far as the measures being obsolete the cases today are higher than when the restrictions were put into place.  Even though vaccines are being administered the case counts are still  twice as high as the first peak in cases back in April of last year.  Certainly considerably higher than when the initial restrictions have been passed.  

 

So how exactly have things changed and made the rulings obsolete?

 

Has the rest of the world opened up to cruising and the US is the only hold out?

 

It the CDC on a totally different track than the similar authorities in other countries around the world?

 

You notice that not a single cruise line or anyone else has even tried a filing indicating that the CDC does not have the authority to do exactly what they have done.

 

If my response is unmeasured then show me exactly where the CDC lacks that authority.

 

 

 

 

Edited by nocl
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I kinda think that as the effects of widespread vaccinations take hold I could see an early fall return to cruising in the US. October/November timeframe is my guess. Its getting close to the time where managing our lives WITH covid should be the main goal. Its not going to go away this year or next it seems and from what I've read, 2024 seems to be the earliest time when we could return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. If that's true, we're all going to have to get used to living with this virus while attempting a somewhat normal life. Masks will become normal attire for older people or people with health conditions, vaccine passports, social distancing where possible and so on but things like concerts, cruises, flying, vacations, re-opening borders should be something health experts and government leaders should be looking at trying to manage as as opposed to banning. We shouldn't be thinking we can live in a bubble forever.

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10 hours ago, nocl said:

Has the rest of the world opened up to cruising and the US is the only hold out?

 

It the CDC on a totally different track than the similar authorities in other countries around the world?

 

You notice that not a single cruise line or anyone else has even tried a filing indicating that the CDC does not have the authority to do exactly what they have done.

 

Exactly!! 👍

 

Finally, I get it. We have entered the Twilight Zone. 

 

On this side of the wall are the normal people. On the other side, the other people. 😬

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well, has Princess done everything that the CDC has 'requested' to begin test cruises, and are truly just waiting on the CDC for 'permission' and how to go about and document these test cruise(s) ?

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6 hours ago, nbsjcruiser said:

I kinda think that as the effects of widespread vaccinations take hold I could see an early fall return to cruising in the US. October/November timeframe is my guess. Its getting close to the time where managing our lives WITH covid should be the main goal. Its not going to go away this year or next it seems and from what I've read, 2024 seems to be the earliest time when we could return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. If that's true, we're all going to have to get used to living with this virus while attempting a somewhat normal life. Masks will become normal attire for older people or people with health conditions, vaccine passports, social distancing where possible and so on but things like concerts, cruises, flying, vacations, re-opening borders should be something health experts and government leaders should be looking at trying to manage as as opposed to banning. We shouldn't be thinking we can live in a bubble forever.

I think that the CEO of NCLH, Frank Del Rio, got it right.  The single greatest indicator for getting back to cruise is case counts.  Get them down (vaccines, masks, distancing, etc) and everyone else changes.

 

One the counts get low enough that the odds of someone encountering an infected person everything will open up, the emergency declarations will get removed.

 

Masks should be the normal attire for everyone. social distancing should be normal practice, with the only exception being when one is within a group such as close family members where they know everyone is vaccinated).  

 

The faster and more vaccinations, the more people behave in a fashion to avoid spread, the faster this gets under control and things return mostly to normal.

 

The more people feel that it all applies to someone else and they really do not need to, the longer this will drag on.

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2 hours ago, voljeep said:

well, has Princess done everything that the CDC has 'requested' to begin test cruises, and are truly just waiting on the CDC for 'permission' and how to go about and document these test cruise(s) ?

I would leave you with the following questions if cruise lines are only waiting for the CDC, and would start up cruising in mass if the CDC would allow it then why are they not cruising else where? Why is RCL waiting until November before they start their announced cruises out of Barbados?

 

 

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2 hours ago, c-boy said:

this Canadien seems to be perturbed  

 

I believe he is assuming that cruise lines have clout that they simply do not have in this case.

 

Any clout that the cruise lines had with the executive branch left in January.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, nocl said:

I would leave you with the following questions if cruise lines are only waiting for the CDC, and would start up cruising in mass if the CDC would allow it then why are they not cruising else where? Why is RCL waiting until November before they start their announced cruises out of Barbados?

 

 

 

I suspect that Barbados has its own rules regarding passenger vessels and pandemic prevention measures.

On top of that the cruise line would have performed a risk analysis and decided it was not favorable.

Edited by brisalta
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Just now, brisalta said:

 

I suspect that Barbados has its own rules regarding passenger vessels and pandemic prevention measures.

Barbados is the location where RCL offloaded and flew out their crew on chartered flights when they would not sign the documents the CDC required for them to do the same in the US.

 

Ah so the CDC is not the sole arbitrator of cruises running  Other countries also have restrictions in place. Both as departure and port visit locations.

 

Exactly my point.

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1 hour ago, jrblach said:

RCL is doing cruises with PAX and crew vaccinated. this could be a game changer

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/ports-destinations/royal-caribbean-resume-sailings-med-haifa-vaccination-mandate-odyssey-seas

 

The second sentence of the article says 'Details on the additional health and safety measures to be implemented will be announced at a later date'.  Even though everyone will be vaccinated, the logistics of other health precautions and port requirements remain unknown (or at least un-announced).  

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My guess is a few things will occur -

 

1.  Each country will set its own schedule for opening up cruising with how comfortable they are with vaccinations and infection rates.

2.  Most countries will start with allowing their own citizens/residents to cruise.

3.  The protocols that emerge will be required vaccination, pre test and possibly post test.

4. on board protocols will be masks and social distancing and possibly capacity limits.

5.  There might be some interesting new routes because of different countries opening up at different times with different requirements.

6.  One health department doesn’t get to pick the rules since multiple countries are typically involved in a cruise - and due to the PVSA the US does not have the same advantage as Australia or Singapore to set a market rule.

7. some countries will be considered lower risk by fall for cruising (the late vaccination start for the EU did not help) and some countries may not be considered safe or may not open ports until mid to late 2022.

 

Cruise starts will definitely be Drake Passage choppy...my personal bet is my transatlantic next March will go forward with the protocols mentioned above.  I’m vaccinated now but even the two land tours I have booked for Costa Rica in April and Peru in September have some pretty strict travel protocols.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The rules for attending the CCL Corp stockholder meeting might give a clue as to what may be required to board a ship.

 

Safety and Security Measures

In the interests of mitigating any risks from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and to prioritize the well-being of our employees, shareholders and other stakeholders, the following measures will apply at the Annual Shareholders Meetings:

 

 

social distancing measures will be in place;

 

hand sanitizer will be provided on entry to the venue and must be used;

 

no refreshments will be provided; and

 

attendees will have to comply with the health and safety measures at the venue, including having their temperature taken and the requirement to wear a face mask covering your nose and mouth at all times.

Attendees will be required to comply with any additional federal, state and/or local government guidance in force on the day of the Annual Shareholders Meetings. You should not attend the Annual Shareholders Meetings if you are suffering from any COVID-19 symptoms or you have come into close contact with someone who has tested positive for COVID-19 within the 14 days preceding the date of the Annual Shareholders Meetings. You will be asked to complete a Health Declaration Form upon arrival.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 2/28/2021 at 7:50 PM, nocl said:

If you think a court case would make a difference go ahead and file one.  Tell us all how you do. The CDC clearly has the authority to do what they are doing when it comes to cruises leaving from or coming to the US, as well as crossing state lines.

 

From my understanding American cruise lines is limiting the number of passenger such that they will fall under the CDC limit so it does not apply to them.  They were going to cruise last year when the ban was in place but a couple of states stopped them

They do have the authority.  However, like all regulatory bodies, they are also prohibited with issuing arbitrary rules and regulations.  They are quickly nearing, if not actually stepping over, that line.

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