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Crew Vaccinations will be required


ipeeinthepool
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1 hour ago, ipeeinthepool said:

Thanks!  This makes 100% great sense of course.  But I think this requirement will push back the start of cruising by many months.  (Or only 65+ aged crew members will be hired at first - just kidding).

 

Seriously at even the optimal scenario that crew members start to be vaccinated by mid-year, by the time they develop immunity and are fully protected we can guess Q4 2021 or so before they can sail with full crews.

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25 minutes ago, Wine-O said:

Most of the crew are in the age group to receive the vaccine last unless RCL purchases it direct from the vendor.  🍷

Vaccine manufacturers can't keep up with the multi-million dollar orders already contracted with many countries, so I highly doubt that a cruise line is going to be able to jump the queue.

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47 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Seriously at even the optimal scenario that crew members start to be vaccinated by mid-year, by the time they develop immunity and are fully protected we can guess Q4 2021 or so before they can sail with full crews.

It's hard to see how crew members will be vaccinated even by then. Many crew members come from countries that are not expected to fully vaccinate their populations before 2023-2024. https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19

 

 

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I think that basically renders cruising over for at least the next two years  and maybe longer. Having crew vaccinated in their home countries and having to return for inevitable booster jabs to cope with the mutating virus seems logistically difficult to say the least.

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2 hours ago, Wine-O said:

Most of the crew are in the age group to receive the vaccine last unless RCL purchases it direct from the vendor.  🍷

In Arizona workers in businesses that transport people are ahead of those 65 to 75.  Getting vaccinated now.

The priority varies greatly from state to state.  Am sure if Florida wants cruising to resume they can prioritize cruise ship workers.  Think we forget that by May or June vaccine will be readily available in the US and many other countries.

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9 minutes ago, BigAl94 said:

I think that basically renders cruising over for at least the next two years  and maybe longer. Having crew vaccinated in their home countries and having to return for inevitable booster jabs to cope with the mutating virus seems logistically difficult to say the least.

Suggest you read my other post.  FWIW to be vaccinated in Arizona you need a driver's license.  Doesn't really matter from where.  There will be Plenty of vaccine by summer.  Crew can be vaccinated on board.  RCL can get vaccine from their countries where registered.  J&J vaccine transports easily.

Got to look to summer with some dozen approved vaccines.  The shortage today is because of only 4 - 5 approved and just 2 in the US along with Pfizer and Moderna shutting in Europe to expand production.

Take a deep breath.

Getting crew vaccinated is easy compared to getting PVSA waived.

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I don't think the issue of crew vaccinations is as big as people worry about, and certainly not a two year hold!  For one thing, for quite some time there will be fewer passengers onboard, which will also mean fewer crew.  I also think that as time goes on, cruise lines may be able to strike deals with vaccine manufacturers to provide their staff with shots.  Then you also add in the factor that even though cruise lines are not US owned, they do provide millions of $$ into our economy and tens of thousands of jobs (directly and indirectly) to US citizens so I could see some deals being struck to allow them to get vaccinated in Florida for example, especially when there are more vaccines and one dose ones at that.

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2 hours ago, MarkWiltonM said:

It's hard to see how crew members will be vaccinated even by then. Many crew members come from countries that are not expected to fully vaccinate their populations before 2023-2024. https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19

 

 

The US should have freely available vaccines long before the time cruising resumes.  If they're able to get vaccinated in the US before boarding, or before cruises depart US ports, it might not be that difficult to accomplish. 

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10 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

I don't think the issue of crew vaccinations is as big as people worry about, and certainly not a two year hold!  For one thing, for quite some time there will be fewer passengers onboard, which will also mean fewer crew.  I also think that as time goes on, cruise lines may be able to strike deals with vaccine manufacturers to provide their staff with shots.  Then you also add in the factor that even though cruise lines are not US owned, they do provide millions of $$ into our economy and tens of thousands of jobs (directly and indirectly) to US citizens so I could see some deals being struck to allow them to get vaccinated in Florida for example, especially when there are more vaccines and one dose ones at that.

Given the uproar over out-of-state over-65 snowbirds getting vaccinated in Florida, including those who own property there and pay taxes, I imagine that any attempt to divert doses to healthy young crew members of foreign flagged cruise ships would not go unopposed. Nevertheless, an interesting proposition.

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3 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

Given the uproar over out-of-state over-65 snowbirds getting vaccinated in Florida, including those who own property there and pay taxes, I imagine that any attempt to divert doses to healthy young crew members of foreign flagged cruise ships would not go unopposed. Nevertheless, an interesting proposition.

We're somewhere in the 100-200 days away range before every willing adult in the US is able to be vaccinated. (assuming 75% acceptance for those over 16).  There should be no cutting the line concerns at that point.  And if the single-dose vaccines come online, it helps with the logistics of needing 3-4 weeks between multiple shots.  

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3 hours ago, Fouremco said:

Vaccine manufacturers can't keep up with the multi-million dollar orders already contracted with many countries, so I highly doubt that a cruise line is going to be able to jump the queue.

Fouremco the orders are in the billions of dollars and doses.  Manufacturers are capable of producing some 6 billion doses in 2021 for the 8 manufacturers that should be approved by June.

Am sure RCL and the rest once the current production cut - to double production - by Pfizer and Moderna along with Novanax, J &J begin distributions will be sorted.

The good news for Canada and others is a modified vaccine should be replacing the current one in just weeks.

Guess those arguing for a change in PVSA and getting cruises started should have listened to you.  Sounding like test cruises this summer to me.

Edited by Arizona Wildcat
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22 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

Given the uproar over out-of-state over-65 snowbirds getting vaccinated in Florida, including those who own property there and pay taxes, I imagine that any attempt to divert doses to healthy young crew members of foreign flagged cruise ships would not go unopposed. Nevertheless, an interesting proposition.

You are correct, not a snowballs chance in hell of it happening.

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21 minutes ago, D C said:

We're somewhere in the 100-200 days away range before every willing adult in the US is able to be vaccinated. (assuming 75% acceptance for those over 16).  There should be no cutting the line concerns at that point.  And if the single-dose vaccines come online, it helps with the logistics of needing 3-4 weeks between multiple shots.  

I agree, in 200 or so days it shouldn't be an issue, but I suspect that @phoenix_dream envisaged a more timely vaccination of crews and return to cruising.

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Call me naive, but I view this as a good news story.  With all the difficulties of a return to service, to me the fact that the cruise lines are "thinking about" and seemingly going to help coordinate/manage or arrange vaccines for crew is positive.  I much prefer that than leaving it up to crew members world wide to figure it out on their own.  My fingers are crossed for November 2021. 

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I think that anyone who believes this indicates an early return to cruising is fooling themselves.  Yes while the industry may be able to produce 8 million doses by the end of 2020, many of those are for double dose vaccines, and the vast majority of the production will not come into play until the second half of the year. Effectively, there may be 5 - 5.5 billion individual immunizations taking into account double and single doses; the world population is somewhere between 7.5 - 8 billion individuals. If anyone believes that a publicly traded company is going to obtain vaccine before the vast majority of sovereign states receive any, then you have much greater faith in the capitalist system than I do. Many of the sovereign states that may not have received the vaccines, may very well be many of the locations ships cruise to.  Also the effectiveness of the vaccine has to be considered.  With the potential for multiple mutations, it may require an additional booster vaccine to create the immunization level needed to slow the progress of the virus.

A month ago I was optimistically thinking that by the end of Q3/21 things would be starting to  return to normal, now I am even hesitant to think that Q1/22 is feasible. 

 

A recent mailing from Celebrity included a significant explanation of Cruise with Confidence, and in the fine print it contains the following:  "Cruise with Confidence applies to individual guests and guests in non-contacted groups who booked a cruise on or before 1/31/2021 for cruises sailing between 06/12/2020 - 05/04/2022".   The programme is available for cruises booked out to May 2022.  A good sign that Celebrity does not think there will be an early resolution to the virus.

 

The implementation of the vaccine roll out has not been what was envisioned and will surely encounter a few more problems before process works as intended.

 

While I concur this is a good sign that the process is being worked on, I feel that over optimism will lead to disappointment.  The people represented on this board are the committed die-hards, who will sail at the drop of a hat; however, the general population views cruising as a luxury, and certainly not as representing an essential item.

 

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1 hour ago, Fouremco said:

I agree, in 200 or so days it shouldn't be an issue, but I suspect that @phoenix_dream envisaged a more timely vaccination of crews and return to cruising.

I can see cruising resuming this summer with test cruises.  The US barring unforseen supply issues should have enough vaccine for everyone over 18 that wants it by the end of July.  That is sort of in the middle of the number for Phoenix Dream.

There are a couple single dose vaccines and AZ is still discussing 2 BILLION DOSES in 2021.

By July certainly see no difficulty for the cruise lines to acquire vaccine either in the countries where ships are based or elsewhere.

There will be much more difficult issues than obtaining vaccine to resuming cruising in 2021.

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14 minutes ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

I can see cruising resuming this summer with test cruises.  The US barring unforseen supply issues should have enough vaccine for everyone over 18 that wants it by the end of July.  That is sort of in the middle of the number for Phoenix Dream.

There are a couple single dose vaccines and AZ is still discussing 2 BILLION DOSES in 2021.

By July certainly see no difficulty for the cruise lines to acquire vaccine either in the countries where ships are based or elsewhere.

There will be much more difficult issues than obtaining vaccine to resuming cruising in 2021.

Which means Revenue cruises wouldn't be until October or November.

Edited by kwokpot
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11 minutes ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

There will be much more difficult issues than obtaining vaccine to resuming cruising in 2021.

I hope that you are right. With the more contagious variants playing an increasing role in the spread of COVID-19 and at least some concern now existing over the efficacy of AstraZeneca against the South African variant, I pray that obtaining vaccines will not be an issue.

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4 hours ago, Fouremco said:

Given the uproar over out-of-state over-65 snowbirds getting vaccinated in Florida, including those who own property there and pay taxes, I imagine that any attempt to divert doses to healthy young crew members of foreign flagged cruise ships would not go unopposed. Nevertheless, an interesting proposition.

Doubt Florida will buy into this. Crew need to get the shots at home  before they travel.  Or quarantined offshore???

 

Shots are an involved process.  We had our second shots yesterday.   Worse reaction than after the first.. One month was required  between shots with moderna and a day or two for recovery.

 

Even with the 2 shots,  we have to get Covid testing pre and post air travel  to fly to NY.  Not sure what the new Pres has in mind for new  trvl rules!

It may get more complicated!

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