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How risky is booking a sailing in Dec 2021


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Hi,

We are thinking of booking a cruise on Explorer to Australia and New Zealand in Dec 2021.

 

Any thoughts on how realistic this is?

 

We can cancel up until 14 days before sailing for any reason I'm told.

 

I wonder how many sailings will happen before Dec. 

 

I can't imagine what the experience will be like as compared to pre-covid as far as dining, shows, meeting people, etc.

 

thoughts?

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How realistic?

 

On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being Theological, ontological Certainty--and 1 being Faget aboud it (Brooklynese)--

 

I will wager a SWAG.  (In military parlance, this is a Scientific Wild-_ss Guess.)  How about 1.25.  We have had three Regent ocean cruises (Splendor, Explorer, Navigator); and one series of Uniworld river boat "cruises" in France canceled, so-far.  And, it is still early 2021.  

 

All is idle speculation.  Pcardad, a frequent contributor on Regent Threads--and a voice I respect as one of reason and, when required, good humor--probably has a better perspective on prospects.  Hopefully, he will chime in.  Probably no passenger-bearing, and paying customers until September or October, at the earliest.  Even-then, also probably restricted to the 'Med area.  

 

Constantly shifting--with the help of our determined TA--to later, and later cruises.  Next up:  Boarding (?) Mariner at Barcelona on October 31st for Crossing to Miami.  I put our chances of this happening at about 2.5 on that scale for reasons already dredged, and redredged ad nauseum on various Threads.  Not going down those rabbit holes. 

 

At-least, Mariner remains in the 'Med.  After that:  a rescheduled Tokyo-Russia-Alaska-San Francisco Mariner cruise starting in late April, 2022.  A more-or-less similar 2021 cruise we had aboard Explorer was, of course, canceled.  Put chances on that 2022 one at:  oh, maybe 4.5.  After that---works still in progress.  Hopefully, back to South Africa in late 2022 or early 2023 for a safari-cruise combo similar to one we took aboard Mariner in 2015.  

 

As for the onboard ambience once cruising recommences?  Won't know the depth and width of COVID-19 related changes until Regent actually resumes cruises.    

 

On the positive side:  spouse and self will have received our second "stick" in about 10 days.  That is progress.  

 

Stay safe.  

 

GOARMY!   

 

 

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Hi Army - As long as we're playing the "odds game", what do you think the "odds" would be (1 to 10) of Mariner doing the 18-day Panama Canal "Holiday transit" from Miami to San Francisco (port visits in central America and Mexico) on Dec 18/2021 - Jan 5/2022?  Regards.

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Hey, Ping.  Here is my Pong on that one.  

 

Having been through the Canal, either Pacific to Carib; or visa-versa four times--

 

Ancient history.  But, more contemporarily and painful, as yet-another scheduled Canal transit--March 14th, Splendor San Diego-Miami on which we had planned to celebrate our 50th wedding anniversary--was canceled when we were at Regent's San Diego hotel on March 13th--

 

Anyway, must stop dredging this up.  But, your itinerary is more-or-less visa versa of what we had hoped-for last March.  

 

As usual, I digress.  To your question:  my SWAG is 2.0.  Hope I am wrong.  Regardless of progress on vaccinations and such, so-much logistical (and training, and repositioning) infrastructure must be reforged, tested, and pass CDC muster before any hope above the 5.0 level can be a realistic expectation.   

 

The value of my evaluation is worth what you paid for it.  

 

Stay safe.  

 

GOARMY!

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, saz25 said:

Hi,

We are thinking of booking a cruise on Explorer to Australia and New Zealand in Dec 2021.

 

Any thoughts on how realistic this is?

 

We can cancel up until 14 days before sailing for any reason I'm told.

 

I wonder how many sailings will happen before Dec. 

 

I can't imagine what the experience will be like as compared to pre-covid as far as dining, shows, meeting people, etc.

 

thoughts?

My thoughts on the chances that cruise will happen ? Zero.  The other day they discovered one Covid case in NZ and that prompted a total lockdown on whatever city it happened. 

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The NZ government have said several times that our borders will not be opened this year.  I think the chance of a change in this policy is very small.  Possibly we will open to Australia and the Pacific Islands.  I think that would be it for 2021.

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16 minutes ago, cruiseluv said:

My thoughts on the chances that cruise will happen ? Zero.  The other day they discovered one Covid case in NZ and that prompted a total lockdown on whatever city it happened. 

 

Is it interesting that the Dec cruise between New Zealand and Australia is almost totally booked. The website shows all of the top categories are on wait list and there is just a few cabins in concierge category E. I guess a lot of people will be disappointed.

 

I didn't hear that about NZ borders.

 

After you mentioned that I read a recent NZ newspaper that said:

"New Zealand is not open to international tourism. In a recent press conference, Prime Minister Jacinta Arden announced that the borders will likely remain closed for most of 2021."

 

I also read that Australia has extended their border closure till at least mid-June.

 

Ok, we will nix this trip. Oh well.....

Thanks.

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Others have done a good job of gazing into their crystal balls.  I think there is one more thing to consider if the cruise actually happens. The spectacular hiccup-free service we usually get on Regent could be somewhat degraded, since the people and procedures have been mothballed for so long. Last week we booked Splendor for July 2022, and one consideration for pulling the trigger was that it was likely that the ship will have had a few months of service by then to iron out any kinks.

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5 hours ago, saz25 said:

 

Is it interesting that the Dec cruise between New Zealand and Australia is almost totally booked. The website shows all of the top categories are on wait list and there is just a few cabins in concierge category E. I guess a lot of people will be disappointed.

 

I didn't hear that about NZ borders.

 

After you mentioned that I read a recent NZ newspaper that said:

"New Zealand is not open to international tourism. In a recent press conference, Prime Minister Jacinta Arden announced that the borders will likely remain closed for most of 2021."

 

I also read that Australia has extended their border closure till at least mid-June.

 

Ok, we will nix this trip. Oh well.....

Thanks.

Sorry.  I hope we will see you this way at some point in the not too distant future.

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15 hours ago, pingpong1 said:

what do you think the "odds" would be (1 to 10) of Mariner doing the 18-day Panama Canal "Holiday transit" from Miami to San Francisco (port visits in central America and Mexico) on Dec 18/2021 - Jan 5/2022? 

FWIW,  I’m a bit more optimistic; maybe 50%.  If US citizens can visit all these countries right now (Mexico, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Columbia), and passengers/crew are vaccinated, and there are some restrictions (e.g. only ship-sponsored excursions), then why not?  I think the bigger issue is the later voyage (from SF around the pacific rim); if that looks like it can go in early 2022 then the proceeding ones might have a good chance of going as well.  Fingers crossed.  

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We are booked on the 2022 World Cruise.  I sure hope the December 2021 Mariner cruises sail because otherwise the chance of our WC happening is basically zero.  We also have a cruise in November that goes from Athens to Miami on the Splendor.  After having three cruises on the Splendor cancelled, we sure hope it sails too.  I'm tentatively optimistic.  If Regent cancels the July cruises, DH may be very reluctant to pay the final payment on the WC unless they delay final payment until September.

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While we are liberal about many matters, we are ultra - conservative when it comes to spending our money. In light of this our largest concern about putting ANY money on these cruises would not be Regent  cancelation. We are supposed to get a cash refund in that case - eventually right? Our main concern would be if the cruise did go, but with so many restrictions and rules that it would resemble a Regent cruise in name only. We are booking nothing until we can know of all these details. Our second largest concern would be  if NCLH goes into bankruptcy. As Regent is incorporated in the Bahamas (not the USA) we have no idea of how a claim for refund of paid passage would be treated. 
 

Bottom line — too many unknowns here.

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I'm choosing to remain optimistic.  We are booked for December out of Miami.  I would be okay if they had to move it to out of an island nation instead but I really think that it will be a go.  They have to start at some point, don't they?  I think that they will start test cruises some time in the early fall and have most kinks ironed out by December.  That is definitely my hope ! 🤞

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54 minutes ago, Dolebludger said:

While we are liberal about many matters, we are ultra - conservative when it comes to spending our money. In light of this our largest concern about putting ANY money on these cruises would not be Regent  cancelation. We are supposed to get a cash refund in that case - eventually right? Our main concern would be if the cruise did go, but with so many restrictions and rules that it would resemble a Regent cruise in name only. We are booking nothing until we can know of all these details. Our second largest concern would be  if NCLH goes into bankruptcy. As Regent is incorporated in the Bahamas (not the USA) we have no idea of how a claim for refund of paid passage would be treated. 
 

Bottom line — too many unknowns here.

What makes you think that NCL could go bankrupt? Are there rumors of that happening ?

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Just an opinion - I think it will be a while before cruising starts up, but I do think it will.  Bankrupt?  Don't think that will happen anytime soon if ever.  Once they start up, it should be good times again for the cruise lines. 

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4 hours ago, Ladys Mom said:

We are booked on the 2022 World Cruise.  I sure hope the December 2021 Mariner cruises sail because otherwise the chance of our WC happening is basically zero.  We also have a cruise in November that goes from Athens to Miami on the Splendor.  After having three cruises on the Splendor cancelled, we sure hope it sails too.  I'm tentatively optimistic.  If Regent cancels the July cruises, DH may be very reluctant to pay the final payment on the WC unless they delay final payment until September.

I am hopeful, too, since we are on Splendor from Barcelona to Miami in Nov!  Will be our 1st Regent cruise and I am really looking forward to it!

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Hearth---(and so-on)

 

Share your sentiment.  See my Post #2, above.   Hope we are shipmates.  Drinks are on me!

 

GOARMY!

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Dolebludger said:

While we are liberal about many matters, we are ultra - conservative when it comes to spending our money. In light of this our largest concern about putting ANY money on these cruises would not be Regent  cancelation. We are supposed to get a cash refund in that case - eventually right? Our main concern would be if the cruise did go, but with so many restrictions and rules that it would resemble a Regent cruise in name only. We are booking nothing until we can know of all these details. Our second largest concern would be  if NCLH goes into bankruptcy. As Regent is incorporated in the Bahamas (not the USA) we have no idea of how a claim for refund of paid passage would be treated. 
 

Bottom line — too many unknowns here.

I look at a glass half full... I am an optimist. We don’t know if our ship will sail in December. But the next one is in February. How many more shall I count? I believe that RSSC will remain solvent and we will sail!  They have more to lose than me. 
sheila

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Looks like GoArmy is in fine form today with predictions from 1 to 10..or vice versa. Had to chuckle about the theological vs NYC (for some, there is no diff though). 

But talking to our friends in Australia, they don't see an opening soon. Seems that both Australia and NZ have realized that things will just work out without those ((%&$) foreigners😀 and are perfectly fine to wait until this blows over (if it ever will).  While I'm hopeful that cruising will in some shape or form open sooner than later (August ? ), I think it will be a more staggered approach. Smaller ships close to "land". Some ships, but not all. Crew has to come back and get settled. Talked to a few crew members from the past we are in contact with and they have no clue when they are called back. Some have move on and got different jobs. If so, a whole new set of crew needs to be trained. All this takes a while.  But, if this trip is something I'd be interested in, I would book it and see what happens. It's still a few months out and you have nothing to loose.  I'd go for it....

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Gcto - I agree completely.  It should not (logically) be an "all or nothing" approach for Regent (or other selected cruise lines)....I guess Regent could simply keep cancelling "all cruises"...no matter the ship, ports, countries, itinerary, etc., until every itinerary was a "Go".  But they could also well be "out of business" before that happened, too!

 

But alternatively, as different countries started "opening up" (like the U.S.), Regent could also begin "running" certain specific itineraries....depending upon which ship, where the itinerary began/ended, which ports/countries the itineraries visited, and the individual and unique logistics involved for each sailing.  Getting a full compliment of vaccinated crew and passengers onboard, and getting the specific ships resupplied, etc., would actually be fairly simple (once respective/applicable government approvals where granted - and there needs to be increased legislative pressure applied to make that happen, as well).

 

From a pure "public relations" standpoint (along with beginning to turn a profit), it would be an important business milestone for Regent to show that at least some of their ships were beginning to sail again and that some of their itineraries were again "open for business".

 

Why does "the entire world" have to be "open", before the very first selected ships/itineraries sail?  Does Regent really have to "wait" for Australia and NZ to "open up" (which could easily be another year - given the mindset of those two governments), before Regent could run a R/T out of Miami?  Could they not partially/fully fill a ship (boarding/returning to Miami), with U.S. citizens who have all had their required vaccinations...along with a fully vaccinated crew?  There is absolutely no problem right now for U.S. citizen to get to Miami from anywhere else in the U.S.  The airlines are flying and cars are driving....and by September (October latest), Regent's "average passenger demographic" will have easily all had their vaccines - if they wanted to get them!  And if for some reason they didn't want to/couldn't get a vaccine.....well, then they simply couldn't sail!

 

Although the majority of our "national press" is loathe to report it, health conditions "on the ground" are now changing (i.e., "improving") rapidly in the U.S.  I cannot speak to any other country.  But things have already dramatically improved in the U.S...in just the past month.... and each week, the rate of "positive health benchmarks" is getting much better at an ever-increasing rate.  From a "virtue police" standpoint, it's just not PC to say that at the moment!

 

Remember, that not every person in America necessarily wants to go on a Regent cruise, or even board an airplane.  But for those of us who do, and who are willing/eager to get back to travelling again, they/we will individually "do" what is necessary to make that "happen" for us - assuming that we don't all hit an unnecessary, capricious, and totally irrational "regulatory roadblock".  More and more states are now "opening up" (restaurants, theaters, sports arenas, parks, airlines).  So why shouldn't the cruise industry be allowed to follow suite, as well? Regards to all.

 

Okay...."Fire up those flamethrowers"!!  🙄

 

 

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On 3/6/2021 at 1:35 PM, saz25 said:

What makes you think that NCL could go bankrupt? Are there rumors of that happening ?

I have no inside info. And I don't want any cruise ine to go bankrupt. But I find all lines to be in really frightening financial condition. To keep going through the shutdown, they all hve borrowed money at "junk bond" interest rates, and have issued new stock diluting their stock. And nobody has any idea when they can sail again. And when they do, they will be capacity and destination limited, as is mentioned above. This will not produce anywhere near pre-pandemic income, which might well be needed to service their new high intrest debt. If the cruise lines lose all 2021 revenue, we all need to be concerned about their future.

 While I certainly am not anti-CDC, I am disappointed at the way they have limited cruise lines while allowing airlines and airports to operate as before. And other countries have done this too. 

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CDC just issued new guidelines. All vaccinated people can be with other vaccinated people without needing to wear a mask or social distance. Seems to me  that soon other cruise lines will adopt the Crystal model...everybody must be vaccinated in order to cruise. Staff and guests. Question...will other countries follow the CDC?

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