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The Debbie Downers have been right all along


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I always thought that people on cruise critic that keep saying no cruising in 2021 were so pessimistic. IMHO I thing cruise lines know exactly when they will restart, and continue taking deposits and final payments on cruises that will never sail. Me, being optimistic, continued booking cruises that continue to be cancelled(my bad). Now I believe it is a cash flow scheme to help the cruise lines stay afloat. And to get travel agents their commission when final is made.  Why not rip the band aid off and restart in 2022 rather than leaving all these customers upset. 

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The Debbie Divas, on the other hand,  are an optimistic bunch and they want to be booked and ready to sail when things turn around!    They also have enough money to gamble on the future of cruising.

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Posted (edited)

I maybe one of those Debbie Downers you refer to.  My initial prediction in the spring of 2020 was cruising would restart by summer of 2021.  Now I think late fall/early winter for restart but it will take until well  into 2022 before they are getting most ships going.  Of course I prefer to call it being realistic 😎

Edited by KirkNC
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I just heard on the news, model projections show 70% of Americans vaccinated by the end of July and 85% by September. Those are the herd immunity goals, So I still think there will be cruising this year.

 

-Paul.

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1 hour ago, wesport said:

And to get travel agents their commission when final is made. 

 

I’m not sure on what basis this statement is made.  HAL does not pay commission if you cancel after final payment.  You, as a customer need to sail for your TA to be paid.

 

The latest cancellations are well before final payment.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, kangforpres said:

I just heard on the news, model projections show 70% of Americans vaccinated by the end of July and 85% by September. Those are the herd immunity goals, So I still think there will be cruising this year.

 

-Paul.

 

I agree it's great news for America but what about the rest of the world?  So many countries are so far behind, others have barely started.  Cruises cannot operate solely within US waters other then that one line in Hawaii I guess.

 

Oh wait, does that make me a debbie downer?  Don't mean to be...

Edited by Cruise NH
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Guess I would also qualify as a Debbie Downer although I do resent the slur applied to those of us who have simply been realistic.   That being said I do believe there will be more resumption of cruising in 2021 although I think much of that will be relegated to the 4th quarter.  I also expect many (if not all) cruise lines to jump on the COVID Vaccine bandwagon and adopt a 100% vaccination policy for all souls (passengers and crew) onboard.   A 100% vaccination policy will help get government approvals but also creates a big problem for younger folks who are still not approved for any of the vaccines.  

 

Hank

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2 hours ago, kangforpres said:

I just heard on the news, model projections show 70% of Americans vaccinated by the end of July and 85% by September. Those are the herd immunity goals, So I still think there will be cruising this year.

 

-Paul.

If I were a betting man I would give odds that we will never achieve 85% in the USA.  Why?  There is a strong anti-vax component in our country which will become a big issue when we get to about the 60% mark.  And since all the COVID vaccines are likely going to need regular booster shots, maintaining 50% would be a modest goal for an annual vaccine program.  If it turns out that boosters are needed more often the percentage participation will likely drop below 50%.   Also consider that the vaccines are not yet approved for younger folks (generally under 16) which do represent a nice percentage of our population.

 

Call be a "Debbie Downer" if you please but my estimates are based on over 35 years in the government healthcare world and numbers we have seen with other vaccination efforts in the past.  And also consider because the COVID vaccines are only on EUAs and seen, by many, as too new and not adequately tested there will be more anti-vax issues then we have seen with well trodden vaccines.  I do understand that Pfizer is  likely to request full approval of their vaccine by the 4th quarter of 2021.  Whether they can meet the tough criteria for full approval (which normally takes several years) is questionable.

 

Now I will be a big time Debbie Downer and go on record as saying "achieving so-called herd immunity" for COVID is a myth and the experts that routinely talk about herd immunity are well aware it will not happen as long as our  vaccines are relatively short lasting (as is the natural immunity for those who have had COVID).   Herd immunity has never, ever, been achieved with any short or medium term vaccine.   I do think herd immunity will only be possible if a future long lasting vaccine is developed.

 

Hank

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Cruise NH said:

 

I agree it's great news for America but what about the rest of the world?  So many countries are so far behind, others have barely started.  Cruises cannot operate solely within US waters other then that one line in Hawaii I guess.

 

Oh wait, does that make me a debbie downer?  Don't mean to be...

Good Point, how is the vaccine roll-out going in the Caribbean? If US gets to heard immunity by the early Fall I would think cruise lines would be raring to start the Caribbean season on say Oct. 1 with a 100% vaccination rule for all those on board.

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Posted (edited)

The covid numbers tell the story.  They continue to tell the story.  Easy to find each country’s weekly numbers on the wd.
 

There is not very much mystery  to the resumption of cruises if one considers these numbers, the trends, the plateaus, etc,  and don’t focus on the percentages being vaccinated in any one country.

 

 

Edited by iancal
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1 minute ago, Hlitner said:

If I were a betting man I would give odds that we will never achieve 85% in the USA.  Why?  There is a strong anti-vax component in our country which will become a big issue when we get to about the 60% mark.  And since all the COVID vaccines are likely going to need regular booster shots, maintaining 50% would be a modest goal for an annual vaccine program.  If it turns out that boosters are needed more often the percentage participation will likely drop below 50%.   Also consider that the vaccines are not yet approved for younger folks (generally under 16) which do represent a nice percentage of our population.

 

Call be a "Debbie Downer" if you please but my estimates are based on over 35 years in the government healthcare world and numbers we have seen with other vaccination efforts in the past.  And also consider because the COVID vaccines are only on EUAs and seen, by many, as too new and not adequately tested there will be more anti-vax issues then we have seen with well trodden vaccines.  I do understand that Pfizer is  

Yes, 21st Century ignorance is actually more challenging than 18th Century Ignorance. So far though the demand far outweighs the supply. Health officials are saying hesitancy is falling with more people getting vaccinated and not getting any side affects. (word of mouth is better than an expert for these people) More importantly and convincingly to the skeptics is that the people who are getting vaccinated are not getting sick and dying of Covid-19.

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9 minutes ago, kangforpres said:

Yes, 21st Century ignorance is actually more challenging than 18th Century Ignorance. So far though the demand far outweighs the supply. Health officials are saying hesitancy is falling with more people getting vaccinated and not getting any side affects. (word of mouth is better than an expert for these people) More importantly and convincingly to the skeptics is that the people who are getting vaccinated are not getting sick and dying of Covid-19.

I spent much of my career dealing with 20th Century Ignorance :(.  What happens with vaccines is that achieving 50% penetration is relatively easy as long as there is adequate supply, the cost to the patient is low or free, and getting a vaccine is not too much of a hassle.  All that will be achieved in the USA so I would expect to see that 50% number reached sometime in the summer.  But then it becomes more difficult and I would assume that there will be lots of outreach and marketing to encourage more folks to get vaccinated.  That will probably get us to around 60% (which seems to be in line with a few polls) but then we traditionally run into the anti-vax resistance.  Meanwhile, those who got vaccinated early in the process will start needing booster shots and that creates another road block.  We have seen this with flu vaccines for decades and even with longer lasting vaccines such as DTap and MMR.

 

Hank

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56 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

I spent much of my career dealing with 20th Century Ignorance :(.  What happens with vaccines is that achieving 50% penetration is relatively easy as long as there is adequate supply, the cost to the patient is low or free, and getting a vaccine is not too much of a hassle.  All that will be achieved in the USA so I would expect to see that 50% number reached sometime in the summer.  But then it becomes more difficult and I would assume that there will be lots of outreach and marketing to encourage more folks to get vaccinated.  That will probably get us to around 60% (which seems to be in line with a few polls) but then we traditionally run into the anti-vax resistance.  Meanwhile, those who got vaccinated early in the process will start needing booster shots and that creates another road block.  We have seen this with flu vaccines for decades and even with longer lasting vaccines such as DTap and MMR.

 

Hank

 

Not sure where you are getting your numbers from.  I saw a poll today for the U.S. that said over 75% were willing to get the vaccine.  It won’t take much to move it up.

 

The numbers have moved up on a regular basis.

 

And, if we need a booster every year like the flu, so be it.  And, if someone finds a vaccine that is long lasting like the one that prevents the small pox, polio, etc., even better.

 

I’m not going to get into a health professional argument.  You are not the only one 😉. But what counts right now is we beat the variants and get on top of this virus.  If we can, then I will happily go for a booster every year 👍 
 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, kangforpres said:

I just heard on the news, model projections show 70% of Americans vaccinated by the end of July and 85% by September. Those are the herd immunity goals, So I still think there will be cruising this year.

 

-Paul.

But its not just Americans that need to be vaccinated. The countries containing the ports we want to visit also have to reach that herd immunity goal. I for one have not desire for a cruise to nowhere. I want to visit new places!

 

Our first booked cruise is for January 2022 and I'm still not 100% sure we will be allowed to sail. Our next is August 2022 and that one at least I really confident on. I won't give the cruise lines anymore money on cruises in between those dates until I start seeing some successful cruises. 

Edited by drowelf
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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, wesport said:

Now I believe it is a cash flow scheme to help the cruise lines stay afloat.

 

I have been concerned for months, and have said so on CC, if these companies go bankrupt, this could be a Ponzi scheme.

 

I am hopeful that cruising will resume before the end of 2021.   But, I am not going to invest in any cruise booking at this point.

Edited by rkacruiser
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5 hours ago, kazu said:

 

I’m not sure on what basis this statement is made.  HAL does not pay commission if you cancel after final payment.  You, as a customer need to sail for your TA to be paid.

 

The latest cancellations are well before final payment.

 

 

If the cruise line cancels, then the travel agents commission is protected. 

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10 hours ago, Spunky946 said:

If the cruise line cancels, then the travel agents commission is protected. 

My TA said the cruise lines (at least IIRC, he said Princess) were "clawing back" the commissions.

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I think there's a game changer in the works being a therapeudic called Molnupiravir. It's a five day set of pills similar to how you'd take a Z-Pak. It's been shown to stop the virus in Covid positive patients. It's possible that it could be released in as little as six months. The ships could carry this in the case of urgent need. So there's another glimmer of hope. As far as where will the ships be able to go, that's a great question. Maybe their private islands and more sea days? That's a tough question. But really only time will tell.

 

Michael

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13 hours ago, ontheweb said:

My TA said the cruise lines (at least IIRC, he said Princess) were "clawing back" the commissions.

 

I don’t believe my TA has been paid by HAL on any cancelled cruises and of course if they are cancelled before final payment (or we cancel), there is no payment.

 

I’m just glad she is hanging in.

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Just now, kazu said:

 

I don’t believe my TA has been paid by HAL on any cancelled cruises and of course if they are cancelled before final payment (or we cancel), there is no payment.

 

I’m just glad she is hanging in.

One of my sisters owns a respectable, fairly large agency.  Their revenue was down 75% last year.  She is being held together by government loans, disaster insurance and personal savings.   They still remain optimistic.  They stay engaged with their customers with zoom and eventbrite.   It is hard.  She recommended that I not take the FCC instead opt for the refund.   My decision to keep the FCC was more in support of her agency than support of HAL.   She can now point to me and say my sister is booked on a cruise. 

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11 hours ago, expectGREATthings said:

I think there's a game changer in the works being a therapeudic called Molnupiravir. It's a five day set of pills similar to how you'd take a Z-Pak. It's been shown to stop the virus in Covid positive patients. It's possible that it could be released in as little as six months. The ships could carry this in the case of urgent need. So there's another glimmer of hope. As far as where will the ships be able to go, that's a great question. Maybe their private islands and more sea days? That's a tough question. But really only time will tell.

 

Michael

I saw this report as well over the weekend.  I found it challenging to find a link that explained so I didn’t post about it.  I do think that this is a game changer as well.

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