The Debbie Downers have been right all along

[HappyInVan]

Here's a discussion about herd immunity from the Mayo Clinic. Lots of common sense...

 

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

 

Often, people work the numbers without understanding how infection spreads. And, it's the persistence of community spread that proves them wrong!

 

First, USA has confirmed that 10% of its population has been infected. Assume that there has been two un-diagnosed cases for every confirmed case, Implies that up to 30% of the population has been exposed.

 

Add 45% of the population that has been vax, @65% of the population have covid19 anti-bodies. But, protection is uncertain (particularly for the mild cases), because the body's natural immunity ranges from excellent to poor for different individuals.

 

That's why a vaccine is recommended, even if you have been infected. It should vastly improve the response of the body's immune system. Moreover, natural immunity declines over time as kazu has pointed out.

 

Second, infection spreads among those who have no (or poor) immunity protection. As there is 35% of the population (100 million) without covid antibodies, the disease can circulate among them for a long time.

 

At a real infection rate of 50k/day (300 deaths/day), the epidemic can persist for a long time. That's why it is critical to complete vax of the children.

 

Third, there's the problem of the variants. They are the wild card...

 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2768260-whos-booked-for-september-2021/

 

 

Let's be clear, herd immunity can occur through vaccinations. For example, childhood vax (>90% of the population) has almost eradicated some infectious diseases.

 

At a community immunity level of 80%, we can expect sporadic outbreaks. At a 70% level, we can expect regular outbreaks associated with superspreader events. At 60%...?

 

Right now, the prognosis for North America is ebb and surge. As summer progresses, cases will ebb. After superspreader events, infection will surge. That's why many campuses will have a vax mandate.

 

Finally, before we can move into a steady state with low community spread, we have to get covid under control. See the chart below for the UK model.

 

Because of the wide disparity of vax rates among the states, the variants will just gather momentum in the low vax areas. Waiting for superspreader events to leap out and conquer the world.

 

That's why nations (and states) unable to crush covid will remain a threat to others. Don't expect international restrictions to end. Any easing can be reversed by an outbreak. Good luck with your travels. Stay safe by being flexible.

 

[HappyInVan]

Well done, chaps!!

 

Looks like you got the forum back under control. Thanks to the moderators for taming the Wild Wild West.

 

Keep it up!

 

Let's focus on the details of cruising. The CDC has concrete proposals and guidelines. Now, its up to the cruise companies to decide on itineraries. Then, the pax have to make their choices.

 

Remember this! Covid19 and its extended family has not been defeated yet. The UK has a 'green list'. Right now, there are so few countries that qualify.

 

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/air-bridges-latest-holiday-flights-quarantine-portugal-greece-spain-141625325.html

 

Yes, some countries will allow the vaccinated to visit without restrictions. Your country may allow the vaccinated to return without a quarantine. But, that can quickly change once a vax-resistant variant takes charge.

 

Be safe. Be informed. Be flexible.

[HappyInVan]

Fumble at the 10 yard line! Groan!!! 🙄

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/after-cdc-change-walmart-says-employees-customers-can-ditch-masks-n1267484

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/16/cdc-director-defends-lifting-mask-guidance-for-vaccinated.html

 

Debbie says, “Gotta be more confusion! Bound to backfire.”

 

Fortunately, UK has 'read the memo'... 👍

 

https://news.sky.com/story/surge-testing-for-indian-and-south-african-variants-under-way-across-england-12306937

 

Stay safe. Be informed. Protect yourself even if you have had the second dose.

 

[KroozNut]

6 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

Fumble at the 10 yard line! Groan!!! 🙄

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/after-cdc-change-walmart-says-employees-customers-can-ditch-masks-n1267484

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/16/cdc-director-defends-lifting-mask-guidance-for-vaccinated.html

 

Debbie says, “Gotta be more confusion! Bound to backfire.”

 

Fortunately, UK has 'read the memo'... 👍

 

https://news.sky.com/story/surge-testing-for-indian-and-south-african-variants-under-way-across-england-12306937

 

Stay safe. Be informed. Protect yourself even if you have had the second dose.

 

 

Many Americans have a different view on the new guidance... Touchdown...Yeah!! 😀

 

To quote the great MLK jr. "Free at last! free at last! thank God Almighty, we are free at last!"

Edited May 17, 2021 by KroozNut

[Mosaic]

It is not about "different views" or even opinion.  Nor is it about freedom. It is about facts and reality.

[bennybear]

49 minutes ago, Mosaic said:

It is not about "different views" or even opinion.  Nor is it about freedom. It is about facts and reality.

This!  Polio, measles, chicken pox were never political!  This should just be medical.  

[kazu]

50 minutes ago, Mosaic said:

It is not about "different views" or even opinion.  Nor is it about freedom. It is about facts and reality.

 

Exactly!

Just now, bennybear said:

This!  Polio, measles, chicken pox were never political!  This should just be medical.  

 

Completely agree.

 

[KroozNut]

4 hours ago, Mosaic said:

It is not about "different views" or even opinion.  Nor is it about freedom. It is about facts and reality.

 

Which is exactly why the CDC now says that, if vaccinated, masks need not be worn indoors or out (based on facts and reality).

And yes, it is about differing views on this guidance; some view it as premature and others as long overdue.

It is also about freedom, individual freedom to finally be free from this and other 'draconian' measures that were put into place for debatable reasons.

[rkacruiser]

I watched C-Span 2 for a while this evening.  (This is the tv feed from the floor of the United States Senate.)  Masks were worn by a few of the Senators.  Most were not wearing masks.  I could not determine by political affiliation which Senators were and which were not from those whom I saw and recognized.  

[tosteve1]

And the medical science says that outdoor activities are safe. And schools are safe. And vaccinated people don’t need to wear masks. But some people only like science when it supports their biases. And their anxiety.

 

[nocl]

39 minutes ago, tosteve1 said:

And the medical science says that outdoor activities are safe. And schools are safe. And vaccinated people don’t need to wear masks. But some people only like science when it supports their biases. And their anxiety.

 

The issue is not about vaccinated individuals not wearing masks, the problem with the announcement is the number of unvaccinated that will not wear masks, since there is no way to tell the difference.

 

Yes the science says that it is relatively safe for the vaccinated.  The announcement is literally becoming an everyone does not need to mask in implementation, which is counter to both the science and recommendation.

[KirkNC]

I had an interesting conversation with my doctor today.  We were talking about cruising and he said pre-pandemic virtually all his patients who came and saw him post cruise  had upper respiratory infections.  We have dealt with this ourselves on longer cruises.  Seems like 30 days is the sweet spot for infection.  We learned  early on longer cruises to bring our own pharmacy including Z Packs.  We may be mask wearing on board in public places to avoid this cruise crud.

Edited May 18, 2021 by KirkNC

[HappyInVan]

Facts? UK is re-opening and cruising because their death rate is sooo low (see chart below).

 

Facts? Florida has suffered 830 deaths in the last 14 days. Compared to just 640 in the entire Canada. How safe is that?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Florida

 

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html?stat=num&measure=deaths_last14&map=pt#a2

 

Facts? Singapore vaccinated airport worker (second dose in February) infected. Could it be the India variant?

 

His infected co-workers spread it at the airport food court. At least 19 of the detected infected (>half of the infected) were fully vax.

 

https://365newschannel.com/singapore-announces-new-restrictions-after-vaccinated-airport-workers-become-infected/

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/8000-office-workers-at-changi-airport-to-be-tested-over-next-few-days

 

 

[aliaschief]

15 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

I had an interesting conversation with my doctor today.  We were talking about cruising and he said pre-pandemic virtually all his patients who came and saw him post cruise  had upper respiratory infections.  We have dealt with this ourselves on longer cruises.  Seems like 30 days is the sweet spot for infection.  We learned  early on longer cruises to bring our own pharmacy including Z Packs.  We may be mask wearing on board in public places to avoid this cruise crud.

New H filters may help but agree it has been a trend on long cruises.

[KirkNC]

38 minutes ago, aliaschief said:

New H filters may help but agree it has been a trend on long cruises.

One can hope they help.

[lstrong]

Why all this gloom and doom people?  Let’s get on with living our lives.....

[KroozNut]

3 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

Facts? UK is re-opening and cruising because their death rate is sooo low (see chart below).

 

Facts? Florida has suffered 830 deaths in the last 14 days. Compared to just 640 in the entire Canada. How safe is that?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Florida

 

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html?stat=num&measure=deaths_last14&map=pt#a2

 

Facts? Singapore vaccinated airport worker (second dose in February) infected. Could it be the India variant?

 

His infected co-workers spread it at the airport food court. At least 19 of the detected infected (>half of the infected) were fully vax.

 

https://365newschannel.com/singapore-announces-new-restrictions-after-vaccinated-airport-workers-become-infected/

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/8000-office-workers-at-changi-airport-to-be-tested-over-next-few-days

 

 

 

Most recently it appears that Canada is trending up while the U.S. is trending down... what's up with that? 🤔

[ontheweb]

10 hours ago, tosteve1 said:

And the medical science says that outdoor activities are safe. And schools are safe. And vaccinated people don’t need to wear masks. But some people only like science when it supports their biases. And their anxiety.

 

There have been cases in the elementary school in which my DW teaches.

 

At one point the entire 3rd grade had to quarantine.

[tosteve1]

Cases. Are we really going to continue counting cases if people are not hospitalized or dying? 

[T8NCruise]

20 minutes ago, tosteve1 said:

Cases. Are we really going to continue counting cases if people are not hospitalized or dying? 

You think no one is hospitalized or dying anymore?

[KroozNut]

1 hour ago, T8NCruise said:

You think no one is hospitalized or dying anymore?

 

Currently in the U.S., very, very few..

[Mary229]

1 hour ago, T8NCruise said:

You think no one is hospitalized or dying anymore?

They announced yesterday that no one died from Covid in Texas yesterday, after months of deaths, no one, not a single death.   We opened in early March and our vaccination rates are probably typical of the US

Edited May 18, 2021 by Mary229

[d9704011]

50 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

They announced yesterday that no one died from Covid in Texas yesterday, after months of deaths, no one, not a single death.   We opened in early March and our vaccination rates are probably typical of the US

Sunday was a very good day for Texas; Monday, not so much.  Still some work ahead I’d say.

[T8NCruise]

56 minutes ago, KroozNut said:

 

Currently in the U.S., very, very few..

Just glanced at the TV 674 deaths - so far today and 17k+ new cases.  Still way too many.

[nocl]

23 hours ago, KirkNC said:

I had an interesting conversation with my doctor today.  We were talking about cruising and he said pre-pandemic virtually all his patients who came and saw him post cruise  had upper respiratory infections.  We have dealt with this ourselves on longer cruises.  Seems like 30 days is the sweet spot for infection.  We learned  early on longer cruises to bring our own pharmacy including Z Packs.  We may be mask wearing on board in public places to avoid this cruise crud.

We have noticed that the longer the cruise the more URIs that seem to be happening.  Less that 10 days usually not much of an issue.  The longer over 10 days the more the impact. Another contributor is that people come from all over the world for a cruise.  Bringing viruses with them that might not be spreading in your area.