The Debbie Downers have been right all along

[HappyInVan]

Guys,

 

Let's try to stay on topic. Why is Doubting Debbie right?

 

What can we learn, and how can we save lives.? What works? Ultimately, where and when can we sail again. 👍

 

Let's leave the ideological battles for the ballot box. 🙄

 

Thanks.

[KroozNut]

Is it just me, or is anybody else having the saying "practice what you preach" coming to mind..? 🙄

[HappyInVan]

Debbie says, “Mission accomplished???? Are they kidding?”

 

Take a lesson from the UK.

 

USA and UK have similar vax rates. Fully vax USA 37% of the population versus UK 29%. The UK giving higher priority to the first dose; USA 48% versus UK 54% (69% of the eligible population).

 

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2021/01/14/covid-vaccine-distribution-by-state-how-many-covid-vaccines-have-been-given-in-us-how-many-people/6599531002/

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

 

However, the Indian variant is spreading fast among the un-vaccinated. Check out the 4 maps here...

 

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/maps-show-covid-variant-spread-150258385.html

 

We know that the vaccinated can get infected and infect other vaccinated people. Its a problem when vaccinated people feel invulnerable.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/18/new-york-yankees-breakthrough-covid-cases-in-vaccinated-team-members.html

 

So, the convergence of this two trends is the perfect storm in the near future.

 

Yes, vaccinated people can end up in hospital, if they have a weak immune system and there's enough exposure...

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/7810718/covid-cases-vaccinated-seniors/

 

Imagine the situation on a ship where vax and un-vax pax mix, with only voluntary mask wearing!

 

“Sorry Amigo! No plague ships allowed here!!!”  👎

 

[bennybear]

To be clear, the lady who got Covid after the vaccine hadn’t yet achieved immunity which takes a few weeks to develop.  
 

In the article about the Yankees,  the vaccine  worked against severe illness.   
 

So while I agree that we still need to be cautious with the new variants, neither of the above are unexpected.  People need to wait until a few weeks after the second dose to be better protected. 

 

 

[KroozNut]

14 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

“Sorry Amigo! No plague ships allowed here!!!”  👎

 

 

"Plague ships'?.. 🤔

[tosteve1]

“The perfect storm”?...I thought we just had that? Are you seriously predicting that things are going to be worse than what we just got through? 

[kazu]

15 hours ago, tosteve1 said:

“The perfect storm”?...I thought we just had that? Are you seriously predicting that things are going to be worse than what we just got through? 

 

I don’t think anyone can predict what the future holds.

While the variants are of concern IF enough can get vaccinated before there are further mutations, there might not be any storm at all.

 

Plus, it is not known that the vaccinated can spread the virus.  There are initial studies underway now that appear to show transmission is extremely reduced if you are vaccinated.

 

I think it’s all a wait and see how things develop world wide.  It’s not just North America but the world we need to be concerned about with international travel.

[iancal]

15 hours ago, tosteve1 said:

“The perfect storm”?...I thought we just had that? Are you seriously predicting that things are going to be worse than what we just got through? 

If your world revolves around parts  North America then things are definitely better.  However, that may not be true of many other countries, including those that we regularly travel to.

 

This covid business is not over yet for many people, many countries.

Edited May 21, 2021 by iancal

[KroozNut]

21 hours ago, iancal said:

This covid business is not over yet for many people, many countries.

 

But it is nearly over in the U.S., which is HUGE! 🙂

[tosteve1]

Dr. Fauci, quoted in the Washington Post: “The breakthrough infection number (for vaccinated people) is not particularly relevant...if you do get a breakthrough infection, it is very likely that you will be without symptoms, and it is unlikely that you will transfer it to anybody else...Follow the number of hospitalizations...That might actually turn out to be the most reliable, followable parameter.”

Remember him?

[ipeeinthepool]

22 hours ago, tosteve1 said:

Dr. Fauci, quoted in the Washington Post: “The breakthrough infection number (for vaccinated people) is not particularly relevant...if you do get a breakthrough infection, it is very likely that you will be without symptoms, and it is unlikely that you will transfer it to anybody else...Follow the number of hospitalizations...That might actually turn out to be the most reliable, followable parameter.”

Remember him?

 

Unless he changes his mind.

[RuthC]

1 hour ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

Unless he changes his mind.

Which he absolutely should do if new information makes that the logical and reasonable thing to do. 
Nothing about this virus has been set in stone, and the experts are still learning. 

[KroozNut]

1 hour ago, RuthC said:

Which he absolutely should do if new information makes that the logical and reasonable thing to do. 
Nothing about this virus has been set in stone, and the experts are still learning. 

 

Yeah, but he changes his tune more often than most people change their underwear.. 🤥

[nocl]

On 5/21/2021 at 11:00 AM, kazu said:

 

I don’t think anyone can predict what the future holds.

While the variants are of concern IF enough can get vaccinated before there are further mutations, there might not be any storm at all.

 

Plus, it is not known that the vaccinated can spread the virus.  There are initial studies underway now that appear to show transmission is extremely reduced if you are vaccinated.

 

I think it’s all a wait and see how things develop world wide.  It’s not just North America but the world we need to be concerned about with international travel.

There is a large study that ran in the UK with both the AZ and Pfizer vaccines.  They tracked cases in the same household where the first case was vaccinated vs where the first case was unvaccinated. Its results where that if someone was vaccinated it reduced spread to household members by 40-50% compared to unvaccinated.  That clearly indicates that a vaccinated individual, if infected can transmit the virus to others.

 

There are other studies that show that the amount of virus shed if someone is vaccinated is reduced by 75-80% so clearly transmission is reduced.  Unfortunately there is no good standard for the amount of virus necessary for transmission.

 

The UK study clearly indicates that in the same household transmission is reduced if one is vaccinated, but only cut in half.

 

This is of interest when talking about potential not fully vaccinated individuals on cruise ships, since the one area that has demonstrated higher transmission rates than among members of the same household in on board cruise ships.

 

 

[Hlitner]

I keep reading things that are not completely true.  Do fully vaccinated folks get COVID?  Very very rarely.  Yes there are some breakthroughs but they are mostly in folks who had the J&J vaccine (which only has an efficacy of about 66%) or in others who have compromised immune systems (of which they are aware).  Breakthroughs among normal folks who got Pfizer or Moderna are probably around 1% and most of those cases are not even symptomatic.  Bottom line is fully vaccinated folks do not get sick (the words of our current CDC Director).    And try finding a single case of a fully vaccinated person spreading COVID to another?  Good luck with that.

 

So lets talk about the variants.  There has been all kinds of warning, fear mongering, hints, etc. about the variants overwhelming the approved vaccines.  Where has that actually happened?  When?  Show me statistics about those "breakthrough cases?"  Lots of speculation, doom and gloom, but the reality is that  at least in the USA the variants have turned out to be no big deal and handled by all three vaccines.  Just the facts!

 

So this guy is open to learning from those better informed, but please post real facts and sources.  For now, my own research tells me that fully vaccinated folks with normal immune systems are safe from getting of giving COVID (with a statistically insignificant few exceptions).  

 

And finally, lets get those ships cruising and folks living the life!  For those that want to continue their doom, gloom, living in basement life I wish them the best and hope they enjoy their existence.  But please do not try to infect me with your skepticism, negativism, and speculation based on nothing.

 

Hank

 

[Mary229]

8 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

I keep reading things that are not completely true.  Do fully vaccinated folks get COVID?  Very very rarely.  Yes there are some breakthroughs but they are mostly in folks who had the J&J vaccine (which only has an efficacy of about 66%) or in others who have compromised immune systems (of which they are aware).  Breakthroughs among normal folks who got Pfizer or Moderna are probably around 1% and most of those cases are not even symptomatic.  Bottom line is fully vaccinated folks do not get sick (the words of our current CDC Director).    And try finding a single case of a fully vaccinated person spreading COVID to another?  Good luck with that.

 

So lets talk about the variants.  There has been all kinds of warning, fear mongering, hints, etc. about the variants overwhelming the approved vaccines.  Where has that actually happened?  When?  Show me statistics about those "breakthrough cases?"  Lots of speculation, doom and gloom, but the reality is that  at least in the USA the variants have turned out to be no big deal and handled by all three vaccines.  Just the facts!

 

So this guy is open to learning from those better informed, but please post real facts and sources.  For now, my own research tells me that fully vaccinated folks with normal immune systems are safe from getting of giving COVID (with a statistically insignificant few exceptions).  

 

And finally, lets get those ships cruising and folks living the life!  For those that want to continue their doom, gloom, living in basement life I wish them the best and hope they enjoy their existence.  But please do not try to infect me with your skepticism, negativism, and speculation based on nothing.

 

Hank

 

Pfizer has repeatedly published reports that it’s vaccine is effective against variants.   Maybe they aren’t real scientists😉

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/05/health/coronavirus-pfizer-vaccine-variants.html

[rkacruiser]

3 hours ago, RuthC said:

Which he absolutely should do if new information makes that the logical and reasonable thing to do. 
Nothing about this virus has been set in stone, and the experts are still learning. 

 

I don't know what I don't know.  Whom among us is all knowing?

 

1 hour ago, KroozNut said:

 

Yeah, but he changes his tune more often than most people change their underwear.. 🤥

 

Perhaps you might want to rethink this post?

 

[bennybear]

I agree about the need for clarity and not fear.   It seems things are so often skewed one way or another depending on ones outlook.   I am glad that Pfizer has worked so well against serious affects from the British and South African variants.  But the jury is still out on the Indian and Brazilian VOCs so thus the need for caution.   
If anyone has hard data on those variants, I would love to see it.  I do follow some epidemiologists who have suggested promising studies re the Brazilian.  But I haven’t seen much re the impact on the Indian variant.  

[Mary229]

3 minutes ago, bennybear said:

I agree about the need for clarity and not fear.   It seems things are so often skewed one way or another depending on ones outlook.   I am glad that Pfizer has worked so well against serious affects from the British and South African variants.  But the jury is still out on the Indian and Brazilian VOCs so thus the need for caution.   
If anyone has hard data on those variants, I would love to see it.  I do follow some epidemiologists who have suggested promising studies re the Brazilian.  But I haven’t seen much re the impact on the Indian variant.  

Many countries are not using US based vaccines so we may never know.  You would have to research publications from the other vaccine makers such as the Russian and Chinese media or science organizations.  Much of that information may not be openly shared or there may simply be a language barrier. 

[Hlitner]

1 hour ago, Mary229 said:

Pfizer has repeatedly published reports that it’s vaccine is effective against variants.   Maybe they aren’t real scientists😉

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/05/health/coronavirus-pfizer-vaccine-variants.html

Studies and Trials are great and within norms.  But there is no better study then what is derived from using the real product (vaccine) in the field.  And when a vaccine is given to 10s of millions of folks there is a tremendous amount of data to study.  The results are clear, that all three or our approved vaccines (in the USA) are effective against all the known variants.  Does that mean that vaccines are perfect?  No.  But they are darn close and the risk of a rare serious breakthrough does not justify any major mitigation measures.  No need for masks, no need for social distancing, no need for closing restaurants, no need for significant capacity restrictions.  As for those who are not vaccinated their risk of getting COVID will continue (at a lesser rate because fewer folks have COVID to spread) but that is their own decision.  Just keep them off my cruise ship :).

 

Hank

[Mary229]

Just now, Hlitner said:

Studies and Trials are great and within norms.  But there is no better study then what is derived from using the real product (vaccine) in the field.  And when a vaccine is given to 10s of millions of folks there is a tremendous amount of data to study.  The results are clear, that all three or our approved vaccines (in the USA) are effective against all the known variants.  Does that mean that vaccines are perfect?  No.  But they are darn close and the risk of a rare serious breakthrough does not justify any major mitigation measures.  No need for masks, no need for social distancing, no need for closing restaurants, no need for significant capacity restrictions.  As for those who are not vaccinated their risk of getting COVID will continue (at a lesser rate because fewer folks have COVID to spread) but that is their own decision.  Just keep them off my cruise ship :).

 

Hank

I agree.  On this board there seems to be unwillingness to consider any source except government spokespersons even when the agency represented has contrary published reports.   I have been dismayed why the vaccine makers don’t do more public relations, I understand they are in a delicate position but a forceful PR campaign would be helpful. 

[jimmy2x]

12 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Studies and Trials are great and within norms.  But there is no better study then what is derived from using the real product (vaccine) in the field.  And when a vaccine is given to 10s of millions of folks there is a tremendous amount of data to study.  The results are clear, that all three or our approved vaccines (in the USA) are effective against all the known variants.  Does that mean that vaccines are perfect?  No.  But they are darn close and the risk of a rare serious breakthrough does not justify any major mitigation measures.  No need for masks, no need for social distancing, no need for closing restaurants, no need for significant capacity restrictions.  As for those who are not vaccinated their risk of getting COVID will continue (at a lesser rate because fewer folks have COVID to spread) but that is their own decision.  Just keep them off my cruise ship :).

 

Hank

You are truly a man of uncommon good sense. 

[nocl]

2 hours ago, Hlitner said:

I keep reading things that are not completely true.  Do fully vaccinated folks get COVID?  Very very rarely.  Yes there are some breakthroughs but they are mostly in folks who had the J&J vaccine (which only has an efficacy of about 66%) or in others who have compromised immune systems (of which they are aware).  Breakthroughs among normal folks who got Pfizer or Moderna are probably around 1% and most of those cases are not even symptomatic.  Bottom line is fully vaccinated folks do not get sick (the words of our current CDC Director).    And try finding a single case of a fully vaccinated person spreading COVID to another?  Good luck with that.

 

So lets talk about the variants.  There has been all kinds of warning, fear mongering, hints, etc. about the variants overwhelming the approved vaccines.  Where has that actually happened?  When?  Show me statistics about those "breakthrough cases?"  Lots of speculation, doom and gloom, but the reality is that  at least in the USA the variants have turned out to be no big deal and handled by all three vaccines.  Just the facts!

 

So this guy is open to learning from those better informed, but please post real facts and sources.  For now, my own research tells me that fully vaccinated folks with normal immune systems are safe from getting of giving COVID (with a statistically insignificant few exceptions).  

 

And finally, lets get those ships cruising and folks living the life!  For those that want to continue their doom, gloom, living in basement life I wish them the best and hope they enjoy their existence.  But please do not try to infect me with your skepticism, negativism, and speculation based on nothing.

 

Hank

 

The Israeli data of real world performance in a large vaccinated population is pretty clear about real world performance of the Pfizer vaccine.

 

After adjustment for age, sex, and calendar week, the efficacy of complete BNT162b2 vaccination was 95∙3% against SARS-CoV-2 infection overall; 91∙5% against asymptomatic infection, 97∙0% against symptomatic COVID-19, 97∙2% against hospitalization, 97∙5% against severe or critical hospitalization, and 96∙7% against death from the disease.

 

Keeping mind that the potential for a break through infection is determined by two things, exposure to the virus (the opportunity to get infected)  and the efficacy of the vaccine.

 

If the number of vaccinated and unvaccinated were equal and the rate of exposure equal then at todays rate of approximately 30,000 cases per day one would expect approximately 1,410 cases in the vaccinated population with about a 3-1 ratio of asymptomatic vs symptomatic illness.

 

 

 

The data from the Israeli study and others are pretty clear.  

 

What you did not state is your denominator for your comment  "Breakthroughs among normal folks who got Pfizer or Moderna are probably around 1% and most of those cases are not even symptomatic."

 

If you are using the entire set of all that have received the vaccine, then the number of break through would be rather small because most people that are vaccinated will not have been exposed to the virus to the degree that is likely to be infected.  

 

 

 

Edited May 24, 2021 by nocl

[Hlitner]

32 minutes ago, nocl said:

The Israeli data of real world performance in a large vaccinated population is pretty clear about real world performance of the Pfizer vaccine.

 

After adjustment for age, sex, and calendar week, the efficacy of complete BNT162b2 vaccination was 95∙3% against SARS-CoV-2 infection overall; 91∙5% against asymptomatic infection, 97∙0% against symptomatic COVID-19, 97∙2% against hospitalization, 97∙5% against severe or critical hospitalization, and 96∙7% against death from the disease.

 

Keeping mind that the potential for a break through infection is determined by two things, exposure to the virus (the opportunity to get infected)  and the efficacy of the vaccine.

 

If the number of vaccinated and unvaccinated were equal and the rate of exposure equal then at todays rate of approximately 30,000 cases per day one would expect approximately 1,410 cases in the vaccinated population with about a 3-1 ratio of asymptomatic vs symptomatic illness.

 

 

 

The data from the Israeli study and others are pretty clear.  

 

What you did not state is your denominator for your comment  "Breakthroughs among normal folks who got Pfizer or Moderna are probably around 1% and most of those cases are not even symptomatic."

 

If you are using the entire set of all that have received the vaccine, then the number of break through would be rather small because most people that are vaccinated will not have been exposed to the virus to the degree that is likely to be infected.  

 

 

 

Note that I was careful to say 99% effective for folks with normal immune systems.   And as you said, if using the entire set of folks who have been vaccinated (which is the real world) then most would not have been exposed to the virus to the degree likely to be infected.  We again get into the discussion of whether our goal is to live in a a world with zero risk!  There is always going to be some risk from COVID just like there is some risk from flu, bubonic plague, pneumonic plague, meningitis, etc.  We could put everyone in a spacesuit with individual oxygen supplies and that would also help reduce infection.   I do not agree with the term "herd immunity" as it has been misused with COVID, but there are herd effects that happen simply because a majority of the population can no longer carry or spread COVID.  

 

COVID has already been defeated (in terms of being an epidemic) in the USA because of vaccinations and natural immunity.  The sooner that is accepted and we get back to normal life the sooner our economy will fully recover, mental health will improve. folks will seek out proper medical care for non-COVID issues that have been ignored or deferred, etc.  I found it uplifting to watch the final holes of the PGA today (old men rule) and see large crowds at Kiawah mostly without masks and without social distancing.  Those folks were having fun, hugging, laughing, etc!  That is called life.  Meanwhile in Michigan their governor thinks that 7 folks at an outdoor table is dangerous but 6 folks are not?   It is time for common sense and personal responsibility to replace government mandates.   Those that continue to live in fear of COVID are certainly free to wear masks, social distance, and quarantine themselves at home.  Those that prefer to live their normal lives should also be free to do so.  And cruise lines should be able to operate with their usual safety protocols with some extra measures to deal with COVID such as requiring everyone to be vaccinated.

 

Hank

 

Hank

[atexsix]

6 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Note that I was careful to say 99% effective for folks with normal immune systems.   And as you said, if using the entire set of folks who have been vaccinated (which is the real world) then most would not have been exposed to the virus to the degree likely to be infected.  We again get into the discussion of whether our goal is to live in a a world with zero risk!  There is always going to be some risk from COVID just like there is some risk from flu, bubonic plague, pneumonic plague, meningitis, etc.  We could put everyone in a spacesuit with individual oxygen supplies and that would also help reduce infection.   I do not agree with the term "herd immunity" as it has been misused with COVID, but there are herd effects that happen simply because a majority of the population can no longer carry or spread COVID.  

 

COVID has already been defeated (in terms of being an epidemic) in the USA because of vaccinations and natural immunity.  The sooner that is accepted and we get back to normal life the sooner our economy will fully recover, mental health will improve. folks will seek out proper medical care for non-COVID issues that have been ignored or deferred, etc.  I found it uplifting to watch the final holes of the PGA today (old men rule) and see large crowds at Kiawah mostly without masks and without social distancing.  Those folks were having fun, hugging, laughing, etc!  That is called life.  Meanwhile in Michigan their governor thinks that 7 folks at an outdoor table is dangerous but 6 folks are not?   It is time for common sense and personal responsibility to replace government mandates.   Those that continue to live in fear of COVID are certainly free to wear masks, social distance, and quarantine themselves at home.  Those that prefer to live their normal lives should also be free to do so.  And cruise lines should be able to operate with their usual safety protocols with some extra measures to deal with COVID such as requiring everyone to be vaccinated.

 

Hank

 

Hank

Exactly how I've felt about it.  If people really think a ship is going to sail without any Covid cases then I got a bridge I can sell ya.  They have to plan it from that point on and go from there.  If they solely focus on not getting the virus onboard in the first place then they'll be back to square one in the fall.

 

The vax controversy has been beaten to death, at this time next year I suppose we'll be having the same discussion over booster shots.  /Sigh😞