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The Debbie Downers have been right all along


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As hopeful as we want to be, COVID is not quite finished.  Two weeks ago, one of our granddaughters suffered COVID.  She had not got around to being vaccinated, but it sounds like she enjoyed a party.  She paid the price big time.  Thankfully she survived and is now repentant, ready to be vaccinated in the future.  Caution is still the smart choice.

Barbara

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6 hours ago, bcummin said:

As hopeful as we want to be, COVID is not quite finished.  Two weeks ago, one of our granddaughters suffered COVID.  She had not got around to being vaccinated, but it sounds like she enjoyed a party.  She paid the price big time.  Thankfully she survived and is now repentant, ready to be vaccinated in the future.  Caution is still the smart choice.

Barbara

I am sorry she was ill but the vaccine is widely available in the US and I think it is high time we start putting the onus where it belongs - on the individual not the society.  I hate to be blunt but at sometime those who are vaccinated have to stand up for our rights too.  

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17 hours ago, Mary229 said:

Many countries are not using US based vaccines so we may never know.  You would have to research publications from the other vaccine makers such as the Russian and Chinese media or science organizations.  Much of that information may not be openly shared or there may simply be a language barrier. 

I was referring to Pfizer and the Indian variant,  but I did just read it shows some protection but quite a lot less than against other types. 
 

 

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5 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

Good news, it’s really amazing how effective the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have proved to be.  That combined with there speedy development and roll out is something.

I am not a biological scientist but my understanding is this is "RNA therapy" and depending on longevity may support an immune response to many corona virus.  Maybe someone with a medical/biology background could chime in.  

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4 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

I am not a biological scientist but my understanding is this is "RNA therapy" and depending on longevity may support an immune response to many corona virus.  Maybe someone with a medical/biology background could chime in.  

I have read that future vaccines should benefit as they now have this building block that allows for rapid vaccine development.

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Here's a dose of realism from the Mayo Clinic...

 

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

 

“Uneven vaccine roll-out. The distribution of COVID-19 vaccines has greatly varied among and within countries. If one community achieves a high COVID-19 vaccination rate and surrounding areas don’t, outbreaks can occur if the populations mix.

 

What’s the outlook for achieving herd immunity in the U.S.?

The U.S. is currently making progress toward herd immunity through a combined approach. The number of fully vaccinated adults continues to rise. In addition, more than 31 million people in the U.S. have had confirmed infections with the COVID-19 virus — though, again, it’s not clear how long immunity lasts after infection.

 

Given the challenges, it’s not clear if or when the U.S. will achieve herd immunity.”

 

Current vaccines will protect against severe illness from the current dominant variants. But, there will be people with severe illnesses even after being fully vaccinated...

 

https://nypost.com/2021/04/11/nj-man-in-hospital-with-covid-after-being-fully-vaccinated/

 

The problem is that vax-resistant variants are waiting in the background. Once the dominant variants are tamed by the vax, the next variants have their turn. That's why BC closed Whistler-Blackcomb after 200 cases cases of the Brazilian variant was detected.

 

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/04/07/whistler-covid-19-p1-variant/

 

In the end, the numbers say it all. However high the vax rate, the persistence of covid says that herd immunity has not been achieved. Currently, UK is still reporting 2k/day in cases, with a mortality rate of just 0.3%...

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/united-kingdom

 

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8 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

Here's a dose of realism from the Mayo Clinic...

 

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808

 

“Uneven vaccine roll-out. The distribution of COVID-19 vaccines has greatly varied among and within countries. If one community achieves a high COVID-19 vaccination rate and surrounding areas don’t, outbreaks can occur if the populations mix.

 

What’s the outlook for achieving herd immunity in the U.S.?

The U.S. is currently making progress toward herd immunity through a combined approach. The number of fully vaccinated adults continues to rise. In addition, more than 31 million people in the U.S. have had confirmed infections with the COVID-19 virus — though, again, it’s not clear how long immunity lasts after infection.

 

Given the challenges, it’s not clear if or when the U.S. will achieve herd immunity.”

 

Current vaccines will protect against severe illness from the current dominant variants. But, there will be people with severe illnesses even after being fully vaccinated...

 

https://nypost.com/2021/04/11/nj-man-in-hospital-with-covid-after-being-fully-vaccinated/

 

The problem is that vax-resistant variants are waiting in the background. Once the dominant variants are tamed by the vax, the next variants have their turn. That's why BC closed Whistler-Blackcomb after 200 cases cases of the Brazilian variant was detected.

 

https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/04/07/whistler-covid-19-p1-variant/

 

In the end, the numbers say it all. However high the vax rate, the persistence of covid says that herd immunity has not been achieved. Currently, UK is still reporting 2k/day in cases, with a mortality rate of just 0.3%...

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/united-kingdom

 

I was flamed by some folks for posting my thoughts that so-called "herd immunity" will never be achieved for any virus for which we do not have a very long lasting vaccine (measured in years).  In the history of the world there has never been herd immunity achieved for such viruses (influenza would be a good example).  Why?  Because as you start to approach a higher level of vaccinations, the early vaccinations are wearing off (hence the need for boosters) so the cycle goes on and on without ever getting too close to a percentage that would constitute herd immunity.  And in the case of COVID there is so much "vaccine hesitancy" that ever achieving more then 70% overall vaccination rates is unlikely.    But we certainly can get this darn virus under control by using vaccines (it has already been brought under control here in the USA, Israel, and the UK).  But just like influenza, COVID is not going to disappear.   As to variants, this has been overstated and without much merit as the current vaccines are effective against all the known variants.   Although we might someday get a new variant that is resistance to our vaccines, we might someday get an entirely new virus that will wipe out the entire world's population.  My point is that we can cannot control what has yet to happen and speculating on something happening is simply speculation.

 

Hank

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OK! Here's the good news. BC has vax 65% of adults.

 

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/covid-19/info/restart

 

Based on metrics on infection and vax rates, the government has a reopening plan. Mid-June, we can travel outside our health district. July, we can travel outside the province. Looking good for domestic tourism in the summer. Sorry, eager cruisers. No joy!

 

September? NO restrictions on live events etc as we complete our second dose for the entire population.

 

Here's Ontario's roadmap. Step 3, 70-80% vax with at least one dose...

 

https://www.ontario.ca/page/reopening-ontario

 

What can we hope for in terms of vaccination protection? As I have said earlier, I anticipate BC will manage to vax 75% of adults. Probably the same or higher ratio of teens and children.

 

Our neighbour, the Yukon Territory (pop 35k), has received vax priority. Currently, has vax 77% of 12+. Vaccination of 12-17 actually begins May 31st. Possible to attain 90% of eligible residents?

 

https://covid19tracker.ca/provincevac.html?p=YT

 

That's the kind of vax ratio achieved in childhood vaccinations. Eliminating several infectious diseases. BTW, Yukon has recorded ZERO infections in the last 14 days. Yoohoo!

 

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12 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

OK! Here's the good news. BC has vax 65% of adults.

 

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/covid-19/info/restart

 

Based on metrics on infection and vax rates, the government has a reopening plan. Mid-June, we can travel outside our health district. July, we can travel outside the province. Looking good for domestic tourism in the summer. Sorry, eager cruisers. No joy!

 

September? NO restrictions on live events etc as we complete our second dose for the entire population.

 

Here's Ontario's roadmap. Step 3, 70-80% vax with at least one dose...

 

https://www.ontario.ca/page/reopening-ontario

 

What can we hope for in terms of vaccination protection? As I have said earlier, I anticipate BC will manage to vax 75% of adults. Probably the same or higher ratio of teens and children.

 

Our neighbour, the Yukon Territory (pop 35k), has received vax priority. Currently, has vax 77% of 12+. Vaccination of 12-17 actually begins May 31st. Possible to attain 90% of eligible residents?

 

https://covid19tracker.ca/provincevac.html?p=YT

 

That's the kind of vax ratio achieved in childhood vaccinations. Eliminating several infectious diseases. BTW, Yukon has recorded ZERO infections in the last 14 days. Yoohoo!

 

 

But, then how can this be? 🤔

 

https://www.ft.com/content/4b6f5200-0626-45f2-9808-2a8083e2cbb9

 

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Dr. Bonnie announced this afternoon that second doses in BC will be coming in about 8 weeks instead of the originally ordered 16 weeks.  We are excited - we were vaccinated on March 17, so we should get our invitations any day now.  BC is at 69% of the eligible population  (12 and up) vaccinated with their first dose.  Manitoba is having a bad time, still fighting their latest surge.    We're excited to cruise soon!

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1 minute ago, Vict0riann said:

Dr. Bonnie announced this afternoon that second doses in BC will be coming in about 8 weeks instead of the originally ordered 16 weeks.  We are excited - we were vaccinated on March 17, so we should get our invitations any day now.  BC is at 69% of the eligible population  (12 and up) vaccinated with their first dose.  Manitoba is having a bad time, still fighting their latest surge.    We're excited to cruise soon!

 

New Brunswick just announced we will go to code GREEN (all restrictions lifted) on August 2nd provided 75% of NB’ers are fully vaccinated.  I have hope for my 2nd jab now if they are going to reach this goal 👍. We are all in code yellow right now - everything is open with limits on numbers of people, masking and physical distancing.  This is the last step.  Fingers crossed 🤞 

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32 minutes ago, Vict0riann said:

Dr. Bonnie announced this afternoon that second doses in BC will be coming in about 8 weeks instead of the originally ordered 16 weeks.  We are excited - we were vaccinated on March 17, so we should get our invitations any day now.  BC is at 69% of the eligible population  (12 and up) vaccinated with their first dose.  Manitoba is having a bad time, still fighting their latest surge.    We're excited to cruise soon!

Us too I am at 12 weeks now which by all research is the optimal time for getting the 2nd shot.  Way to go BC we've done well and with so much less reluctance to get the jabs than is seen in the US so it bodes very well for us.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Mary229 said:

@KroozNut  Can you give a brief summary, I hit a pay wall.  Thanks

@rodndonna beat me to it. 😉

 

Basically it was a very detailed article about how dismal Canada's COVID response has been as compared to the U.S., and how far behind they are.

Although they have recently begun to make some progress in catching up, they remain woefully behind where they should be at this point in the pandemic (again, when compared to the U.S.) 

Edited by KroozNut
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8 hours ago, KroozNut said:

@rodndonna beat me to it. 😉

 

Basically it was a very detailed article about how dismal Canada's COVID response has been as compared to the U.S., and how far behind they are.

Although they have recently begun to make some progress in catching up, they remain woefully behind where they should be at this point in the pandemic (again, when compared to the U.S.) 

 

I certainly didn't interpret the article the way you did. Indeed Canada's vaccine rollout has been delayed compared to the US  resulting in a 3rd wave,

 

On May 3rd (date of the article), for the first time over course of the pandemic, Canada's case count exceeded the US.

 

Since that article was written, Canada's vaccine rollout  has been ramping  up quickly, and case counts are now rapidly declining and approximately equal to the US.

 

In terms of stating that Canada's COVID response has been dismal when compared to the US I would disagree as there were many elements to Covid response and the article is strictly speaking to the vaccine rollout timeline. Indeed the vaccine rollout timeline lag to the US left Canada with a 3rd wave to deal with, however, the overall case cases and deaths per capita are still at least double in the US.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

 

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13 minutes ago, rodndonna said:

In terms of stating that Canada's COVID response has been dismal when compared to the US I would disagree as there were many elements to Covid response and the article is strictly speaking to the vaccine rollout timeline.

I agree with you.

 

For the life of me, I cannot understand how people reach certain conclusions and what metric they believe is ‘the goal’.  To me, getting a large proportion of the population with at least one vaccination (preferably spread uniformly across all eligible age groups) is the way to go and Canada is moving in that direction.  The graph doesn’t reflect the uniformity granularity I referred to but does indicate that Canada is making very good progress on getting a large proportion of the population at least partially vaccinated.

33E4976F-EBC2-4E31-B52A-30800609CC92.png

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, KroozNut said:

@rodndonna beat me to it. 😉

 

Basically it was a very detailed article about how dismal Canada's COVID response has been as compared to the U.S., and how far behind they are.

Although they have recently begun to make some progress in catching up, they remain woefully behind where they should be at this point in the pandemic (again, when compared to the U.S.) 

Canada is definitely behind. But catching up quickly.

 

Having said that, the death rate from covid in Canada per million population is about 35 percent of either the US or the UK levels.

Edited by iancal
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I wonder how long it will take until every second person on Earth will be vaccinated. In any case, I am sure that we will be done with it very soon 

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1 hour ago, T8NCruise said:

Quick follow up from Canada - 2nd shot scheduled a few days from now.  Really fast catchup.

 

Yes, they announced here that the 2nd jabs are going to be moving fast and much quicker than the 1st.  Good news for sure.

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9 hours ago, d9704011 said:

I agree with you.

 

For the life of me, I cannot understand how people reach certain conclusions and what metric they believe is ‘the goal’.  To me, getting a large proportion of the population with at least one vaccination (preferably spread uniformly across all eligible age groups) is the way to go and Canada is moving in that direction.  The graph doesn’t reflect the uniformity granularity I referred to but does indicate that Canada is making very good progress on getting a large proportion of the population at least partially vaccinated.

33E4976F-EBC2-4E31-B52A-30800609CC92.png

 

I agree with you that folks tend to cite metrics that support their particular biases and beliefs in terms of what is actually going on. Which is not to say that any particular view is correct or incorrect... simply different.

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