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The Debbie Downers have been right all along


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When it came to responding to those who kept writing that the start of cruising was right around the corner, the Debbie Downers could not have been more right.

 

When it came to predicting that a vaccine would be years away, or possibly never, the Debbie Downers could not have been  more wrong. And the vaccines developed seem to have efficacies higher than anyone would have ever predicted.

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7 hours ago, Hlitner said:

There is another ugly truth about viruses such as COVID.  It is very unlikely that it will ever be eliminated and there will never be zero cases for any length of time.  The immunity (both natural and vaccine related) diminishes over time and there will never be 100% compliance with vaccine booster schedules.  It is also impossible to achieve a 100% vaccinated worldwide population so COVID will continue to thrive just like the various influenza viruses continue to thrive.   The world will have to learn how to live with COVID just like we live with many other diseases.  But the availability of vaccines and evolving treatments should make COVID manageable.  It is already being predicted that the long term effects of all the lockdowns will likely cause more issues then the actual virus in terms of mental health, deferred medical treatment for other serious problems (i.e. cancer, heart disease, etc), long term mental and socialization problems for children who have been shut off from education and socialization, etc.   In one sense the cure may be worse then the disease.

 

With the exception of your last sentence, I agree with your thoughts in the above paragraph.  

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There is no right or wrong.

 

We knew nothing about covid a year or so ago.  We know more now but our knowledge is far, far from complete.

 

Plus, this virus will continue to mutate.  This is the challenge in Europe today, and possibly in NA tomorrow.  There may always be challenges of some sort.  

 

Our knowledge base after a year is better but it will continue to improve thanks to dedicated public health professionals and scientists who do their very best each and every day despite criticism and constant sniping  from self serving and sometimes extremely ignorant politicians and various public leaders.

 

So, in the face of this no one is right or wrong.   Other than those who ignore the numbers, the facts,  and  decide to fly in the face of science for their own convenience or in order to fool themselves.

Edited by iancal
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13 hours ago, Hlitner said:

None of the rare cases that developed after vaccination (beyond the 2 week waiting period) were serious or involved hospitalization.  That is a truly remarkable statistic...

 

The world will have to learn how to live with COVID just like we live with many other diseases. 

 

I have to disagree with you on this issue. The vaccines are important tools. But, they are not the magic wand.

 

We mustn't underestimate covid's capacity to evolve and overcome. Viruses as a form of life is a miracle of evolution. Around longer than the mammals. We must play to win against this strain.

 

I've been an advocate of the Australasia and East Asian models since last autumn. That's because they have an intent to win. None of this stuff about flattening the curve and co-existing with the disease.

 

Covid is endemic over there. With 70% vax, they could drop all restrictions and return to normal for the foreseeable future.

 

Look at Israel. They desperately started to vax when covid was already raging. With 60% vax rate, there's been a vast improvement. But, it is unclear when life can get back to normal.

 

I'll offer this analogy. Imagine a house infested with bedbugs. Sterilizing only 70% of the house (the most frequently used portions) will bring immediate relief.

 

However, the bedbugs in the other 30% will re-colonize the house with variants immune to poison. Making them deadlier than the original breed.

 

Already happening. UK variant is 70% more infectious with 62% higher morbidity. In Brazil, the new VAX-resistant variant is infecting people with prior infection. Spectacular increase in deaths.

 

 

Global new deaths per capita March 11 Brazil.JPG

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10 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

I have to disagree with you on this issue. The vaccines are important tools. But, they are not the magic wand.

 

We mustn't underestimate covid's capacity to evolve and overcome. Viruses as a form of life is a miracle of evolution. Around longer than the mammals. We must play to win against this strain.

 

I've been an advocate of the Australasia and East Asian models since last autumn. That's because they have an intent to win. None of this stuff about flattening the curve and co-existing with the disease.

 

Covid is endemic over there. With 70% vax, they could drop all restrictions and return to normal for the foreseeable future.

 

Look at Israel. They desperately started to vax when covid was already raging. With 60% vax rate, there's been a vast improvement. But, it is unclear when life can get back to normal.

 

I'll offer this analogy. Imagine a house infested with bedbugs. Sterilizing only 70% of the house (the most frequently used portions) will bring immediate relief.

 

However, the bedbugs in the other 30% will re-colonize the house with variants immune to poison. Making them deadlier than the original breed.

 

Already happening. UK variant is 70% more infectious with 62% higher morbidity. In Brazil, the new VAX-resistant variant is infecting people with prior infection. Spectacular increase in deaths.

 

 

Global new deaths per capita March 11 Brazil.JPG

So what is your point?  Are you advocating we can never go into public again?    you keep posting this same material over and over again with an alarmist tone yet never offer a course of action except to stay home. 

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23 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

So what is your point?  Are you advocating we can never go into public again?    you keep posting this same material over and over again with an alarmist tone yet never offer a course of action except to stay home. 

I agree 100%

 

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33 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

So what is your point?  Are you advocating we can never go into public again?    you keep posting this same material over and over again with an alarmist tone yet never offer a course of action except to stay home. 

 

Sorry to alarm you. Just trying to maintain a balanced perspective on these forums. Save lives!.

 

I've had a negative outlook since last spring. Not totally negative. Before Pfizer received EUA approval in December, I booked a cruise Mediterranean October 2021.

 

I'm also the guy who sounded the alarm in December about the surge in UK cases. “Look at the trajectory!!!!” North America followed three weeks later.

 

In fact, look at post #46 on this thread...

 

“The governments should just tell the truth....

 

Governments should offer a real choice to the public. Follow the Australasia model. End the epidemic with a zero-covid strategy. Or, do the same things again and again. Open and close. Ease and tighten. Hope that covid goes away.”

 

So, there is a real option for those countries unable to defeat covid. Should you want life to return to normal. Ditto for cruising.

 

Until the moment of truth arrives, you must stay positive. Live your life as normally as possible. I do.

 

Get vaccinated. Do positive things. Persuade everyone you know to get vax, and continue to wear masks.

 

I know of one person who hands out masks to the homeless. Offers masks on the buses/trains.

 

P.S. Never underestimate a strong opponent. The cheerleaders and deniers have been doing that for a year. Look at the cost!

 

All the best.

 

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19 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

Get vaccinated. Do positive things. Persuade everyone you know to get vax, and continue to wear masks.

In your post you dissed the vaccines too.  This what got my dander.  I am not going to argue the science because the true peer reviewed, valid studies have not even been published. You give no option.  Vaccines aren't good enough, so what is?  

Edited by Mary229
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1 hour ago, Mary229 said:

In your post you dissed the vaccines too.  This what got my dander.  I am not going to argue the science because the true peer reviewed, valid studies have not even been published. You give no option.  Vaccines aren't good enough, so what is?  

PS,  I don't think a strong argument is backed by calling people names.  Cheerleader, Debbie Downer?  These have no place in a serious, respectful discussion

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My State has been pretty much open since mid-May/early-June.  We worked at my Restaurant throughout this whole Pandemic even during the two month shutdown that started last March.  During the two months we were closed we stayed open for Take Out/Delivery, etc. coming in contact with hundreds of Customers a week.   We were working within close proximity of one another because we had to. We've gone out to Dinner to support our other local Restaurants and have pretty much lived life as normal except for wearing Face Masks.  Washy, Washy was always a priority for me long before Covid.  We travelled to Florida last Fall to see my Daughter, etc. Throughout this Pandemic we kept aware and took precautions but lived our lives as normal as we could.  We're in our late 60's and both have two comorbidities.   Now we have our 1st Dose and soon to get our 2nd Dose and very much ready to get back Onboard a Ship.  

 

It's a personal choice on how much we continue to let this Virus control our lives (especially after receiving the Vaccine) and if we are going to be a "Debbie Downer" or an "Optimistic Annie".  For us we choose the latter!   

 

With regards to the 2021 Cruise Season "It ain't over till the Fat Lady Sings"! 

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1 hour ago, idiebabe said:

My State has been pretty much open since mid-May/early-June.  We worked at my Restaurant throughout this whole Pandemic even during the two month shutdown that started last March.  During the two months we were closed we stayed open for Take Out/Delivery, etc. coming in contact with hundreds of Customers a week.   We were working within close proximity of one another because we had to. We've gone out to Dinner to support our other local Restaurants and have pretty much lived life as normal except for wearing Face Masks.  Washy, Washy was always a priority for me long before Covid.  We travelled to Florida last Fall to see my Daughter, etc. Throughout this Pandemic we kept aware and took precautions but lived our lives as normal as we could.  We're in our late 60's and both have two comorbidities.   Now we have our 1st Dose and soon to get our 2nd Dose and very much ready to get back Onboard a Ship.  

 

It's a personal choice on how much we continue to let this Virus control our lives (especially after receiving the Vaccine) and if we are going to be a "Debbie Downer" or an "Optimistic Annie".  For us we choose the latter!   

 

With regards to the 2021 Cruise Season "It ain't over till the Fat Lady Sings"! 

I like your attitude and would love to be on a cruise with you. We are both 71 and with our 1st shot, second in two weeks. We too have eaten out as much as possible to support our favorite local restaurants and in many cases friends which have been open to partial occupancy in Texas since June. In the first two months we also did take out at least twice a week to help make sure our favorite restaurants survived and stayed in business. At our age, my wife and I have refused to give in to the Debbie Downers and live our life a close to normal as we can, with taking reasonable precautions. Call us Optimistic Annie's. In regards to our cruises booked this year (canceled from last year) we are hopping the Fat Lady loses her voice by September.

 

Keep safe and have fun in your travels.

Edited by terrydtx
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I'm 78 and my wife is 69. e both have had our vaccines and can't wait to cruise again. We live in S.C. and try to live as normal as possible. We go to restaurants, do our own shopping, and whatever we can do. We have a cruise booked for December, which we hope happens, a cruise next March, and an Alaska cruise for Sept, 2022.  

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5 hours ago, idiebabe said:

With regards to the 2021 Cruise Season "It ain't over till the Fat Lady Sings"! 

 

It ain't over until it's over.  Many of us think that the Fat Lady has at least arrived at the theater in preparation for her performance.  

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7 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Sorry to alarm you. Just trying to maintain a balanced perspective on these forums. Save lives!.

 

I've had a negative outlook since last spring. Not totally negative. Before Pfizer received EUA approval in December, I booked a cruise Mediterranean October 2021.

 

I'm also the guy who sounded the alarm in December about the surge in UK cases. “Look at the trajectory!!!!” North America followed three weeks later.

 

In fact, look at post #46 on this thread...

 

“The governments should just tell the truth....

 

Governments should offer a real choice to the public. Follow the Australasia model. End the epidemic with a zero-covid strategy. Or, do the same things again and again. Open and close. Ease and tighten. Hope that covid goes away.”

 

So, there is a real option for those countries unable to defeat covid. Should you want life to return to normal. Ditto for cruising.

 

Until the moment of truth arrives, you must stay positive. Live your life as normally as possible. I do.

 

Get vaccinated. Do positive things. Persuade everyone you know to get vax, and continue to wear masks.

 

I know of one person who hands out masks to the homeless. Offers masks on the buses/trains.

 

P.S. Never underestimate a strong opponent. The cheerleaders and deniers have been doing that for a year. Look at the cost!

 

All the best.

 

Nobody else will be following the Australasian model.  Certainly not Canada! Too late for that anywhere else. We’ll see about the vaccines but comparing the Covid vaccine to flu vaccines is a stretch. Flu vaccine is notoriously ineffective. 50% at best. All the Covid vaccines have been 90+ % effective in preventing hospitalization and death including against variants. The Pfizer vaccine is 94% effective in preventing asymptomatic cases as well and, by extension, transmission. Modern miracles. Vaccinating the vulnerable will result in a continuing decline in deaths. And deaths are what matters. Countries that vaccinate will get better. Those that can’t or go too slowly, will not.

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@terrydtx  Thank you, I like your attitude, too!  😀 We’re not fans of being around the “Debbie Downers”!  Also,  thank you for supporting your local Restaurants!  It’s been an “interesting” year for all of us in this Business  (for many reasons) and we truly appreciate all our “regulars” who supported us through it all!  
 

Hope to see you Onboard a “Dam” Ship and we will  definitely have to meet up at Happy Hour and have some fun!   Hopefully, that “Fat Lady” will lose her voice by a September!  
 

Stay safe, too, and enjoy, too!  
 

@deliver42   Another “Optimistic Annie” !  😀. We are fortunate that we live in a great State where we had the choice to live our lives as normal as could be this past year.  Enjoy your Cruise in December!  😀
 

 

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3 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

It ain't over until it's over.  Many of us think that the Fat Lady has at least arrived at the theater in preparation for her performance.  

Many also thought the Red Sox had the game sewn up against the NY Mets in ‘86 and had won the World Series!  They had that game over with and had Congrats up on the Board for the Red Sox.  However, we all know how that turned out with the ball then going through Buckner’s legs and the Mets going on to become the Champs!  The Mets Motto was   “Ya Gotta Believe”!  
 

We should all be rooting for all the Cruise Lines that they can get some Ships sailing again in 2021 instead of being such Negative Nellies!  I have three Cruises booked and if that “Fat Lady” does sing and my Fall Cruise gets cancelled, I’ll roll with it and look forward to the next one Booked.  In the meantime, I’ll continue to look forward to the Fall one!  
 

“Ya Gotta Believe”!  😉



 

 

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8 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

It ain't over until it's over.  Many of us think that the Fat Lady has at least arrived at the theater in preparation for her performance.  

 

I'm also hoping that the 2021 year isn't entirely over. I have a Med cruise in October, MSC YC Deluxe Suite.

 

However, I'm old enough to realize that my wants are irrelevant in a reality where covid runs the show. 

Don't get mad at me. I'm just the messenger. Hopefully, I can continue to provide at least a month's notice. Take care.
 

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The Vaccination project in Europe has been slow to start and slower to ramp up to decent numbers and now a further blow.  Several countries have suspended the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine following 4 cases of blood clots in Norway after the administration of the AZ vax.

 

(trying to find a source that is not behind a paywall)

try this one, its a few days out of date as more countries have no suspended its use.

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n699

Edited by VMax1700
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1 hour ago, VMax1700 said:

The Vaccination project in Europe has been slow to start and slower to ramp up to decent numbers and now a further blow.  Several countries have suspended the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine following 4 cases of blood clots in Norway after the administration of the AZ vax.

 

(trying to find a source that is not behind a paywall)

try this one, its a few days out of date as more countries have no suspended its use.

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n699

That is unfortunate..  This is the important point of the I took away from the citation:

 

Commenting on the decisions, Stephen Evans, professor of pharmacoepidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said, “The problem with spontaneous reports of suspected adverse reactions to a vaccine [is] the enormous difficulty of distinguishing a causal effect from a coincidence.” He highlighted that covid-19 disease was very strongly associated with blood clotting and that there had been hundreds, if not many thousands, of deaths caused by blood clotting as a result of covid-19.

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6 hours ago, idiebabe said:

Many also thought the Red Sox had the game sewn up against the NY Mets in ‘86 and had won the World Series!  They had that game over with and had Congrats up on the Board for the Red Sox.  However, we all know how that turned out with the ball then going through Buckner’s legs and the Mets going on to become the Champs!  The Mets Motto was   “Ya Gotta Believe”!  
 

We should all be rooting for all the Cruise Lines that they can get some Ships sailing again in 2021 instead of being such Negative Nellies!  I have three Cruises booked and if that “Fat Lady” does sing and my Fall Cruise gets cancelled, I’ll roll with it and look forward to the next one Booked.  In the meantime, I’ll continue to look forward to the Fall one!  
 

“Ya Gotta Believe”!  😉



 

 

Do you honestly believe those of us who have a more cautious opinion are rooting against the cruise lines?  Hope is a wonderful thing but it’s not a strategy.

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1 hour ago, KirkNC said:

Do you honestly believe those of us who have a more cautious opinion are rooting against the cruise lines?  Hope is a wonderful thing but it’s not a strategy.

 

Exactly!  Wearing rose-colored glasses doesn't work as a strategy for investment either. I've had five cruises that have been canceled by the cruise line, or that I've had to cancel or shift since this began. It is a hassle getting money back, getting responses, canceling all the related things like airfare and hotels. I am not going to "invest" further in cruising until the industry has not only restarted but has several months of solid performance. 

 

That doesn't mean that I want the cruise lines to fail or that I don't "hope" they restart ASAP.

 

And I don't honestly believe that my own hopes or expressed wishes have anything to do with the speed or lack thereof with which cruising resumes.

 

(Signed, Rita Realist) 🤷‍♀️

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1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Exactly!  Wearing rose-colored glasses doesn't work as a strategy for investment either. I've had five cruises that have been canceled by the cruise line, or that I've had to cancel or shift since this began. It is a hassle getting money back, getting responses, canceling all the related things like airfare and hotels. I am not going to "invest" further in cruising until the industry has not only restarted but has several months of solid performance. 

 

That doesn't mean that I want the cruise lines to fail or that I don't "hope" they restart ASAP.

 

And I don't honestly believe that my own hopes or expressed wishes have anything to do with the speed or lack thereof with which cruising resumes.

 

(Signed, Rita Realist) 🤷‍♀️

And that’s the funny part.  Whatever we wish, good, bad or indifferent doesn’t matter.  What really matters is what behaviors we do that either minimizes or maximizes the spread of CV.  That will have an impact on cruising restarts.

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10 hours ago, idiebabe said:

Many also thought the Red Sox had the game sewn up against the NY Mets in ‘86 and had won the World Series!  They had that game over with and had Congrats up on the Board for the Red Sox.  However, we all know how that turned out with the ball then going through Buckner’s legs and the Mets going on to become the Champs!  The Mets Motto was   “Ya Gotta Believe”!  
 

We should all be rooting for all the Cruise Lines that they can get some Ships sailing again in 2021 instead of being such Negative Nellies!  I have three Cruises booked and if that “Fat Lady” does sing and my Fall Cruise gets cancelled, I’ll roll with it and look forward to the next one Booked.  In the meantime, I’ll continue to look forward to the Fall one!  
 

“Ya Gotta Believe”!  😉



 

 

If "Negative Nellie" and "Debbie Downer" are labels for being realistic and cautious, I guess many of us can wear those labels and be proud.  

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