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The Debbie Downers have been right all along


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10 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Thanks for the Hail Mary. Here's the science...

 

Last night, I watched Global TV's news program – The New Reality.

 

I was astonished to discover that a mutation similar to the UK variant had arisen as a response to treatments given to patients.

 

https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/study-covid-19-evolved-convalescent-plasma-therapy-treatment-convalescent-plasma-therapy-patients-uk-mutant-1766753-2021-02-07

 

In mid 2020, a UK patient was in hospital for covid treatment for 100 days. With an immune system weakened by cancer treatment.

 

“The man’s Covid-19 was treated with two courses of the antiviral drug remdesivir and, later, two courses of convalescent plasma — antibody-laden blood from people who had recovered from Covid-19. He died 102 days after admission.”

 

Samples were repeatedly taken. The astonishing revelation that the virus had mutated in response to convalescent plasma in just weeks. Evading the antibodies with a double mutation.

 

In comparison, pharma needs months to complete laboratory trials for a booster. More months for human trials. More months to ramp up production. Globally, the human race needs years to complete the deployment of vax.

 

As I had earlier pointed out, we must not underestimate this strain. Scientists have deconstructed viruses. But, we still don't understand the full potential of this form of life when pitted against human technology. A miracle of evolution. Far older than mammals.

 

BTW, my name isn't Debbie. People call me Happy!

 

 

 

I'm still leaning towards Debbie.. 🙄

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Last night, I watched a news clip of a LIVE outdoor concert in Queenstown, NZ. Attended by 6k fans, jammed shoulder to shoulder. Not a  mask in sight!.

 

That's what we should be targeting when we talk about 'defeating' covid.

 

In the meantime, the numbers say it all.

 

 

BC deaths per capita comparison Feb 11.JPG

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Posted (edited)
On 3/9/2021 at 2:52 PM, Hlitner said:

If I were a betting man I would give odds that we will never achieve 85% in the USA.  Why?  There is a strong anti-vax component in our country which will become a big issue when we get to about the 60% mark.  And since all the COVID vaccines are likely going to need regular booster shots, maintaining 50% would be a modest goal for an annual vaccine program.  If it turns out that boosters are needed more often the percentage participation will likely drop below 50%.   Also consider that the vaccines are not yet approved for younger folks (generally under 16) which do represent a nice percentage of our population.

 

Call be a "Debbie Downer" if you please but my estimates are based on over 35 years in the government healthcare world and numbers we have seen with other vaccination efforts in the past.  And also consider because the COVID vaccines are only on EUAs and seen, by many, as too new and not adequately tested there will be more anti-vax issues then we have seen with well trodden vaccines.  I do understand that Pfizer is  likely to request full approval of their vaccine by the 4th quarter of 2021.  Whether they can meet the tough criteria for full approval (which normally takes several years) is questionable.

 

Now I will be a big time Debbie Downer and go on record as saying "achieving so-called herd immunity" for COVID is a myth and the experts that routinely talk about herd immunity are well aware it will not happen as long as our  vaccines are relatively short lasting (as is the natural immunity for those who have had COVID).   Herd immunity has never, ever, been achieved with any short or medium term vaccine.   I do think herd immunity will only be possible if a future long lasting vaccine is developed.

 

Hank

 

 

Hank we agree  with your reality of the vaccinations  . The cruise lines will need to not only request to see vaccinations but also test  at the pier or set up a required test a day or two before leaving for the pier  and perhaps at the pier as well to retest 

 

Edited by mcrcruiser
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Posted (edited)
On 3/9/2021 at 2:52 PM, Hlitner said:

 

If I were a betting man I would give odds that we will never achieve 85% in the USA.  Why?  There is a strong anti-vax component in our country which will become a big issue when we get to about the 60% mark.  And since all the COVID vaccines are likely going to need regular booster shots, maintaining 50% would be a modest goal for an annual vaccine program.  If it turns out that boosters are needed more often the percentage participation will likely drop below 50%.   Also consider that the vaccines are not yet approved for younger folks (generally under 16) which do represent a nice percentage of our population.

 

 

 

Hank

 

 

I am now vaccinated and I resumed my business travel through crowded airports last week. It doesn't really matter to me if someone else refuses to vaccinate as I will be protected.  The unvaccinated will eventually get infected with COVID and then they will develop immunity as well.

 

igraf

 

 

Edited by igraf
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1 hour ago, igraf said:

I am now vaccinated and I resumed my business travel through crowded airports last week. It doesn't really matter to me if someone else refuses to vaccinate as I will be protected.  The unvaccinated will eventually get infected with COVID and then they will develop immunity as well.

 

igraf

 

 

Natural immunity (what you get from living through COVID) is only temporary (like the vaccine) and most of the antibodies are gone within 10 months.  This is not a one shot of once infected and done thing.   But the problem is that lets assume you are on a cruise where half the folks are vaccinated and half are not!  And lets assume that a few of those folks get COVID during your cruise.  What do you think happens to the cruise?   It is very likely they would be denied docking at any ports and may have to even cut the cruise short and return to a port willing to accept the sick folks.  This has actually happened in Europe on quite a few cruises.

 

So, others not being protected may well ruin your vacation.  

 

Hank

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1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

Natural immunity (what you get from living through COVID) is only temporary (like the vaccine) and most of the antibodies are gone within 10 months.  This is not a one shot of once infected and done thing.   But the problem is that lets assume you are on a cruise where half the folks are vaccinated and half are not!  And lets assume that a few of those folks get COVID during your cruise.  What do you think happens to the cruise?   It is very likely they would be denied docking at any ports and may have to even cut the cruise short and return to a port willing to accept the sick folks.  This has actually happened in Europe on quite a few cruises.

 

So, others not being protected may well ruin your vacation.  

 

Hank

 

Hopefully the unvaccinated would not be allowed on a cruise ship.   Vaccines have often been required for travel, school, etc.  Even my dog is required to be vaccinated against rabies.  Nothing new here at all.  The anti-vaxers will just be excluded from high potential risk activities like cruising.  Their choice.

 

What is the big deal about a booster shot now and then?  I get a flu shot every year, and I am happy to do it.

 

igraf

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5 minutes ago, igraf said:

 

Hopefully the unvaccinated would not be allowed on a cruise ship.   Vaccines have often been required for travel, school, etc.  Even my dog is required to be vaccinated against rabies.  Nothing new here at all.  The anti-vaxers will just be excluded from high potential risk activities like cruising.  Their choice.

 

What is the big deal about a booster shot now and then?  I get a flu shot every year, and I am happy to do it.

 

igraf

Agree!  We just had this same discussion at Dinner tonight with my Daughter and her Husband.  😀

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Posted (edited)
On 3/14/2021 at 5:41 PM, Lido - Lanai said:

I guess you choose to only watch the MSM stations, but in Trump’s last speech a week or so ago, he asked all his fan club to please get the vaccine. Typical of Fauci to be so out of the loop.

 

I'd love to see that. I've searched the internet for any indication that he is telling his followers to get the vaccine. I did find one line in the CPAC speech.  It would be very helpful if it was put out there more.

Edited by mtnlvr53
found additional info. Would delete if I could :)
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In order to solve a problem, we need to know the nature of the problem. I'm confident that most nations will defeat covid. However, it will be difficult.

 

In post #96, I've highlighted covid's scary potential. Early in the pandemic, I believed that covid was just a dumb mutation machine. That covid's success was due to human ignorance and disorganization.

 

In December, I had an epiphany, like these experts...

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-variants-insight/when-will-it-end-how-a-changing-virus-is-reshaping-scientists-views-on-covid-19-idUSKBN2AV1T1

 

Covid19 is very difficult to defeat because the virus is a product of long evolution. Colonizing animals and plants, even bacteria. In lieu of intelligence, virus has some kind of feedback mechanism. Able to search its toolbox for solutions against an obstruction.

 

The covid19 species seems to be able to do this very well. Searching through its racial memory for effective mutations. That's why similar (more infectious) mutations are spontaneously popping up in different parts of the world.

 

As I've said before, vaccines are not the end game. In this case, we need a zero covid strategy in order to return to normal. Need to stop covid dead in its tracks (stop its mutation) before it brings out bigger guns from its toolbox.

 

That's why our wants are irrelevant, even distractions. Life will return to normal when we get the job done. Frankly, I don't think cruising has much of a future with cruises to nowhere!

 

I have more science for you, when you're ready. In the meantime, enjoy Disney...

 

When you wish upon a star

Makes no difference who you are

Anything your heart desires will come to you

If your heart is in your dream

No request is too extreme

 

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14 hours ago, igraf said:

I am now vaccinated and I resumed my business travel through crowded airports last week. It doesn't really matter to me if someone else refuses to vaccinate as I will be protected.  The unvaccinated will eventually get infected with COVID and then they will develop immunity as well.

 

igraf

 

 

My next door neighbor is a nurse at a local hospital that admits Covid patients,  she had covid twice last year, April and December, as have numerous of her colleagues at her hospital. Her first case of Covid almost put her in the hospital and may have done some permanent damage to her lungs, the second case was much milder. She has now been vaccinated as well because her medical community believes the vaccine to be more effective than being a Covid survivor. 

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I am the downest of the Debbie Downers. My prediction of 2,000,000 USA coronavirus deaths by October 15, 2021 was not accurate, thankfully.

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Posted (edited)

This is not over yet and we do not really know where it will end.  Part of solution depends on personal behaviour, part on science and medicine.  

 

The only thing we know is that it is not over by a long shot.  Absolutely no idea when we will be able resume safe international travel or cruising.  Those that say they do really do not.   Nothing wrong with being optimistic but one cannot ignore the numbers.  You cannot wish them away.  And the numbers are not good. 

 

Edited by iancal
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"Safe" means different things to different people or nations. Mexico has horrible numbers on infections and deaths but they are open for tourism. Europe and Canada? They have the money to be more cautious on letting tourists return. 

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Posted (edited)

The US numbers, in terms of total  cases per 1M, are much worse  than those reported by Mexico-90,769 vs 16,960.

 

Deaths per 1M are not too far off.   1650 in the US, 1501 in Mexico.

Edited by iancal
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, iancal said:

The US numbers, in terms of total  cases per 1M, are much worse  than those reported by Mexico-90,769 vs 16,960.

 

Deaths per 1M are not too far off.   1650 in the US, 1501 in Mexico.

Do you really think Mexico is testing as much as the US?   It’s hard to compare apples and oranges,  the death rate is probably more accurate. Mexico has tested about 44, 000 per million where the US has tested over a million per million. 

Edited by bennybear
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8 hours ago, whogo said:

I am the downest of the Debbie Downers. My prediction of 2,000,000 USA coronavirus deaths by October 15, 2021 was not accurate, thankfully.

🙄😒

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, iancal said:

The US numbers, in terms of total  cases per 1M, are much worse  than those reported by Mexico-90,769 vs 16,960.

 

Deaths per 1M are not too far off.   1650 in the US, 1501 in Mexico.

None of the numbers are good.  US is awful.  So are the numbers in France, Italy, Canada, Spain, Turkey.  Many are going the wrong way.

 

Some people seem to think because vaccinations are happening that miraculously their covid numbers have greatly improved overnight and travel will commence.     It just is not so.

 

My point was this is not over.  The numbers in North America do not warrant anyone looking askance at the numbers in other countries.  If anything, those in most other countries  are slightly better or much better.  That is why I do not understand those who believe that cruising is just around the corner.

Edited by iancal
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5 minutes ago, iancal said:

My point was this is not over. 

 

Indeed. I personally know more people right now who have COVID than during the whole of the entire pandemic put together.

 

Most of them have been careful until now. One has the new, more infectious variant. Another got it from their child, presumably exposed in school. A third was infected from an adult child visiting them. And there are a couple more who have it and are not even sure where they were exposed. All of those are in different towns/cities and only two in the same state.

 

It's not over yet. 

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9 hours ago, whogo said:

I am the downest of the Debbie Downers. My prediction of 2,000,000 USA coronavirus deaths by October 15, 2021 was not accurate, thankfully.

Sadly the spring breakers down in Florida once they return to school, will spread the disease further through the country.  

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Posted (edited)

Well our prospects for cruising in the future just went up. I finally got an appointment for my first "jab" on Thursday, the wife gets her's tomorrow. It will be the Moderna vaccine.

 

-Paul

Edited by kangforpres
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10 minutes ago, kangforpres said:

Well our prospects for cruising in the future just went up. I finally got an appointment for my first "jab" on Thursday, the wife gets her's tomorrow. It will be the Moderna vaccine.

 

-Paul

 

Good wishes for no side effects.  I had none.  

 

 

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26 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Good wishes for no side effects.  I had none.  

 

 

I had a sore arm after each shot, but it was a small price to pay for the immunity provided.

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10 hours ago, whogo said:

I am the downest of the Debbie Downers. My prediction of 2,000,000 USA coronavirus deaths by October 15, 2021 was not accurate, thankfully.

You have some stiff competition on this Thread for being the Downest of the Debbie Downers!  😂😂😂

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On 3/15/2021 at 10:45 AM, HappyInVan said:

Last night, I watched a news clip of a LIVE outdoor concert in Queenstown, NZ. Attended by 6k fans, jammed shoulder to shoulder. Not a  mask in sight!.

 

That's what we should be targeting when we talk about 'defeating' covid.

 

In the meantime, the numbers say it all.

 

 

BC deaths per capita comparison Feb 11.JPG

Backwards looking

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