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vaccine required?


delliemd
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On 3/29/2021 at 7:49 AM, azbirdmom said:

 

My husband and I are in the same trial.  We have our day 180 visit at the clinic today.  Actually it is more like day 206 because we got injected on the first day of the US trial and then the pause happened so we got our second injection almost 8 weeks later after the FDA allowed the trial to resume.  There are almost 900 people in the US in the same boat so they will have data within the US study about longer intervals although it sure wasn't planned.

 

We were going to tell the study folks today that we wished to be unblinded.  However I had an email exchange with someone at the study last week and learned that to do that we would have to make an appointment to get another vaccine then they would unblind us.  Those were the terms of the trial.  I was a little nervous about finding something as our state had opened up vaccines to everyone over the age of 16 on the day I started looking for appointments but I lucked out because the medical group we use was having a vaccine event this past weekend.  I got an appointment for this past Saturday and DH got his for Sunday.  Then we learned the verdict - hubby got the vaccine and I got the placebo.  So I kept my appointment and got injected with Moderna on Saturday.  And DH cancelled his appointment.

 

Interestingly enough they want us both to stay in the study.  I was quite happy that the folks at the study encouraged me to keep my appointment to get a rival's vaccine rather than waiting for AZ to get their EUA from the FDA.  Only then would the study give me the AZ vaccine.  They said at this point it's better to be protected.  I'll find out today what value I will continue to be to the study but I'll keep going as long as it's helpful to them.

We just found out that we both received the AstraZeneca vaccine.   Absolutely no side effects.   Happy happy.  
We asked at the clinic yesterday to be unblinded and the lead doctor emailed last night to see if we would remain in the trial after being unblinded.   
We will actually get to meet him tomorrow as DH has an appointment at Balboa Naval Hospital for his Valley Fever check up.   The lead doctor is in the same clinic as our Dr.   

Ready to cruise in July with our kids and grandkids.   Kids vaccinated as active duty military, and teacher. 

 

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1 hour ago, deliver42 said:

I don't think the CDC will allow cruising without vaccines for passengers and crew.

Don't think I would disagree with your presumption.

 

Personally, I could care less, unless the presence of non-vaccinated cruisers would force me to wear a mask all the time and restrict port access, etc.  Otherwise, as vaccinated, I don't care about others, no more than I worry about Noro when cruising.

 

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2 minutes ago, kiwimum said:

We just found out that we both received the AstraZeneca vaccine.   Absolutely no side effects.   Happy happy.  
We asked at the clinic yesterday to be unblinded and the lead doctor emailed last night to see if we would remain in the trial after being unblinded.   
We will actually get to meet him tomorrow as DH has an appointment at Balboa Naval Hospital for his Valley Fever check up.   The lead doctor is in the same clinic as our Dr.   

Ready to cruise in July with our kids and grandkids.   Kids vaccinated as active duty military, and teacher. 

 

 

Congratulations!  I am sure they would want you to stay in the study.  And good luck to your DH with his Valley Fever check up.  That's nasty and very common here in Arizona.  I had it many years ago and got through it but I know of some who have had lingering impacts from it.

 

As for vaccines, my only concern now is that I heard that Dr. Fauci said that we may not need the AstraZeneca vaccine in the USA.  The card that the study gave to my DH had the usual info about vaccination dates dates and lot numbers of the vaccine but clearly indicated that he was in a study and it was an experimental vaccine not approved by the FDA.  The folks at the study indicated that he would get the CDC type card after the FDA approves the vaccine for emergency use.  If they don't will the authorities accept the card he has now to prove that he has been vaccinated?  The WHO and many countries have approved the AZ vaccine, I just don't know what it will mean for our future travel if he doesn't have the same card as other US citizens.

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6 minutes ago, azbirdmom said:

 

Congratulations!  I am sure they would want you to stay in the study.  And good luck to your DH with his Valley Fever check up.  That's nasty and very common here in Arizona.  I had it many years ago and got through it but I know of some who have had lingering impacts from it.

 

As for vaccines, my only concern now is that I heard that Dr. Fauci said that we may not need the AstraZeneca vaccine in the USA.  The card that the study gave to my DH had the usual info about vaccination dates dates and lot numbers of the vaccine but clearly indicated that he was in a study and it was an experimental vaccine not approved by the FDA.  The folks at the study indicated that he would get the CDC type card after the FDA approves the vaccine for emergency use.  If they don't will the authorities accept the card he has now to prove that he has been vaccinated?  The WHO and many countries have approved the AZ vaccine, I just don't know what it will mean for our future travel if he doesn't have the same card as other US citizens.

We will see and I will ask the Dr tomorrow.    I am sure it will be approved in the future.   The US has a stockpile of 30 million doses of AstraZeneca and has given or sold several million to Canada and Mexico.

 

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18 minutes ago, kiwimum said:

The US has a stockpile of 30 million doses of AstraZeneca and has given or sold several million to Canada and Mexico.

Not speaking for Mexico, but Canada was LOANED 1.5M doses and will be repaying the US back from future shipments. 

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28 minutes ago, azbirdmom said:

If they don't will the authorities accept the card he has now to prove that he has been vaccinated?  The WHO and many countries have approved the AZ vaccine, I just don't know what it will mean for our future travel if he doesn't have the same card as other US citizens.

If the US doesn't approve, I wonder if they will re-vaccinate individuals with two doses of something else - or at least one?  There is apparently some studies going on about crossing vaccines.

 

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1 minute ago, Steelers36 said:

If the US doesn't approve, I wonder if they will re-vaccinate individuals with two doses of something else - or at least one?  There is apparently some studies going on about crossing vaccines.

 

 

Yes, AstraZeneca is studying that very thing in the UK.  Plus DH had his first injection last September.  We don't yet know how long it will last or if a booster will be required.  Hoping that participating in a study may not come back to bite us in terms of our future travel plans!

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23 minutes ago, kiwimum said:

We will see and I will ask the Dr tomorrow.    I am sure it will be approved in the future.   The US has a stockpile of 30 million doses of AstraZeneca and has given or sold several million to Canada and Mexico.

 

 

Let me know what they say!  I haven't asked that particular question yet as I couldn't fathom that they may not submit for FDA approval given all of the $$ they have gotten from the US.

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15 hours ago, john watson said:

 

I think one thing people are overlooking is that vaccinated people can be totally unaffected by the infection but be carriers and in this respect might become super-spreaders.

 

Regards John

Your proof of that from the CDC.

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What CCL Corp has to say about requiring vaccines (from stock analysts conference call):

 

 
"While we will have a limited number of sailings carrying to those who have already received vaccines, our decisions about vaccines and all of our health protocols continue to be informed by our global medical and science experts and the requirements of the places we operate and visit."

 

"Today everybody doesn't have access to vaccines. Children are not yet really eligible for vaccines. Hopefully, that'll change over time. Hopefully, the availability of the vaccine so everyone will have access will also change over time. And we would encourage everyone to be vaccinated. We would. Today, we can't buy vaccines to do anything. So we just have to let this play out. And keep in mind, we are currently sailing (almost 400,000 guests so far overseas) without any major incident, without anybody being vaccinated and with protocols in place."

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8 hours ago, USCcruisecrazy said:

What is the sense of having all passengers and crew vaccinated and still wear a mask?? 

 

Assuming the vaccines are 95% effective, that means 5% of those vaccinated could still catch (and spread) the virus.  With 3000 vaccinated passengers on a ship, on average 150 might not be effectively vaccinated.

 

Without antibody testing nobody knows if they are in the 95% or the 5% group.

 

When herd immunity is achieved, it probably will not matter anymore which group you are in and wearing masks will not matter. But we are nowhere close to herd immunity.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, caribill said:

What CCL Corp has to say about requiring vaccines (from stock analysts conference call):

 

 
"While we will have a limited number of sailings carrying to those who have already received vaccines, our decisions about vaccines and all of our health protocols continue to be informed by our global medical and science experts and the requirements of the places we operate and visit."

 

"Today everybody doesn't have access to vaccines. Children are not yet really eligible for vaccines. Hopefully, that'll change over time. Hopefully, the availability of the vaccine so everyone will have access will also change over time. And we would encourage everyone to be vaccinated. We would. Today, we can't buy vaccines to do anything. So we just have to let this play out. And keep in mind, we are currently sailing (almost 400,000 guests so far overseas) without any major incident, without anybody being vaccinated and with protocols in place."

 

Personally, I find it hard to get past the horrible high school dropout level of grammar in that statement, and I didn't previously consider myself a grammar n@z!.  

 

"everybody doesn't have access to vaccines"?? 

Edited by D C
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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, john watson said:

 

I think one thing people are overlooking is that vaccinated people can be totally unaffected by the infection but be carriers and in this respect might become super-spreaders.

 

Regards John

Maybe true.. maybe.  But then how does that impact another passenger that is vaccinated?  I know I'll be vaccinated when I cruise, but I truly believe I will be exposed to the virus in my day to day life for a bit.  But, being vaccinated, I don't think that other's vaccination status will have that much impact on me.  

 

And frankly, I think the ports will be the highest risk... not that the risk will be that high anyway.

Edited by Redwing55
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1 hour ago, Redwing55 said:

Maybe true.. maybe.  But then how does that impact another passenger that is vaccinated?  I know I'll be vaccinated when I cruise, but I truly believe I will be exposed to the virus in my day to day life for a bit.  But, being vaccinated, I don't think that other's vaccination status will have that much impact on me.  

 

And frankly, I think the ports will be the highest risk... not that the risk will be that high anyway.


how it could have an effect on you?

 

just refer back to how cruiselines floated around last spring when ports denied them entry. How ships quarantined everyone onboard. Etc. Not a problem for some I guess. Only takes one person to start the spread of this virus and varients. 

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5 hours ago, Steelers36 said:

Don't think I would disagree with your presumption.

 

Personally, I could care less, unless the presence of non-vaccinated cruisers would force me to wear a mask all the time and restrict port access, etc.  Otherwise, as vaccinated, I don't care about others, no more than I worry about Noro when cruising.

 


this speaks volumes 

 

thanks for sharing 

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3 hours ago, Redwing55 said:

But then how does that impact another passenger that is vaccinated? 

It depends on if that other vaccinated passenger is in the 5% for whom the vaccination is not effective.

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6 hours ago, caribill said:

 

Assuming the vaccines are 95% effective, that means 5% of those vaccinated could still catch (and spread) the virus.  With 3000 vaccinated passengers on a ship, on average 150 might not be effectively vaccinated.

 

Without antibody testing nobody knows if they are in the 95% or the 5% group.

 

When herd immunity is achieved, it probably will not matter anymore which group you are in and wearing masks will not matter. But we are nowhere close to herd immunity.

But herd immunity has always been described as less than 95% having had Covid or vaccinated.

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2 minutes ago, Steelers36 said:

But herd immunity has always been described as less than 95% having had Covid or vaccinated.

Correct. But at the moment not even 50% of the population has been vaccinated or had Covid, so we are not at or near herd immunity.

 

Without herd immunity, those who have not yet been immunized and those in the 5% group for whom the vaccination is not effective are in danger of contracting the virus if exposed.

 

It is not that 95% vaccination rate is required for herd immunity as that is not the magic number (I have read anywhere from 70% to 90% in that guessing game), but that until herd immunity is achieved those for whom the vaccine is not effective are not protected from infection as much as they could be..

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19 minutes ago, caribill said:

Correct. But at the moment not even 50% of the population has been vaccinated or had Covid, so we are not at or near herd immunity.

 

Without herd immunity, those who have not yet been immunized and those in the 5% group for whom the vaccination is not effective are in danger of contracting the virus if exposed.

 

It is not that 95% vaccination rate is required for herd immunity as that is not the magic number (I have read anywhere from 70% to 90% in that guessing game), but that until herd immunity is achieved those for whom the vaccine is not effective are not protected from infection as much as they could be..

The herd threshold is calculated from the R nought number and from the efficacy of the vaccine.  The first value is subject to change as more information is gathered or as mutations have different levels of contagiousness (?).  The second number is still being gathered but seems positive.  So, the more contagious a virus is, the greater the number of who people need to be vaccinated.  The more effective the vaccine the fewer who need to be vaccinated.  The herd threshold is calculated using both values.  It changes as those values change.

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18 minutes ago, onlyslightlymad said:

The herd threshold is calculated from the R nought number and from the efficacy of the vaccine.  The first value is subject to change as more information is gathered or as mutations have different levels of contagiousness (?).  The second number is still being gathered but seems positive.  So, the more contagious a virus is, the greater the number of who people need to be vaccinated.  The more effective the vaccine the fewer who need to be vaccinated.  The herd threshold is calculated using both values.  It changes as those values change.

 

And even harder to calculate accurately when there are several vaccines with different efficacies ranging from 72% to 95% which are administered to different numbers of people.

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3 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

And even harder to calculate accurately when there are several vaccines with different efficacies ranging from 72% to 95% which are administered to different numbers of people.

Yes, a great point.  Although, even 72% is pretty good for a vaccine.

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11 hours ago, caribill said:

 

Assuming the vaccines are 95% effective, that means 5% of those vaccinated could still catch (and spread) the virus.  With 3000 vaccinated passengers on a ship, on average 150 might not be effectively vaccinated.

 

Without antibody testing nobody knows if they are in the 95% or the 5% group.

 

When herd immunity is achieved, it probably will not matter anymore which group you are in and wearing masks will not matter. But we are nowhere close to herd immunity.

Sounds like the fix then is testing for antibodies.  Then again, if science says you are likely to not show symptoms once vaccinated and almost certain not to get extremely sick and die, let vaccinated persons make their decision as to board a ship or not.  But if a mask is required, I'll find a different form of entertainment.  I understand your opinion and point of contention...we just have opposing levels of concern I guess.  Thanks for the response.

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