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Does Disney know more than Celebrity?


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We keep seeing Celebrity cancel cruises a month a time and many think that some return to cruising could be right around the corner.  Celebrity has made some new summer itineraries and are actively marketing summer cruises.  However Disney's CEO discussed resuming cruising operations during a Q&A session at the shareholder meeting.  Here's what he said:

 

“We're anticipating that with some luck, the increase of the number of vaccinations out there and the encouraging trends that we're seeing, maybe by this fall, we might be able to have some limited operations of our cruise ships,”

 

This seems to be a much different perspective, I wonder who will be correct.

 

Here's a link to the article

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/24534-disney-s-chapek-hopes-for-limited-cruise-operations-by-fall-2021.html

 

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Disney can be more forth coming overall since they have many other streams of revenue.  The mainstream cruise lines primary revenue streams are on board operations/sailings.  They need to play it month by month now.  Not sure what to expect on any fronts at this point.  Yes vaccinated but no one knows how the ports will allow ships in etc.  To many unknowns and no guidance can be given.  The lines have no reason to put out maybes etc since this would probably lead to many overall frustrations from people.  Once they have more facts/hard data they will release it.  Im okay with the month by month overall at this point.  Is it frustrating for many but I understand that things are ever changing right now.  Norm or what was I dont think we will see ever again.  

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I posted about this yesterday too. He provides a pretty realistic insight unfortunately. But I would imagine the amount of unvaccinated kids Disney has on board may put them a little behind other lines like  Celebrity, HAL and Princess that have a significantly older passengers who are way more likely to have been vaccinated earlier. 

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18 minutes ago, Jeremiah1212 said:

I posted about this yesterday too. He provides a pretty realistic insight unfortunately. But I would imagine the amount of unvaccinated kids Disney has on board may put them a little behind other lines like  Celebrity, HAL and Princess that have a significantly older passengers who are way more likely to have been vaccinated earlier. 

 

I understand your comment about unvaccinated kids, but nothing will change by the fall.

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Nothing will change by the fall? I think you are wrong.

 

as of today, NYT reports that nearly 30 % of Americans have had the virus, 18 % have had at least one shot, and even accounting for overlap, about 40% of Americans. Have some protection from Covid. 
 

by the fall, expect significant increases in protection

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24 minutes ago, WestLakeGirl said:

Nothing will change by the fall? I think you are wrong.

 

as of today, NYT reports that nearly 30 % of Americans have had the virus, 18 % have had at least one shot, and even accounting for overlap, about 40% of Americans. Have some protection from Covid. 
 

by the fall, expect significant increases in protection

Additionally greater availability of monoclonal antibody cocktails will keep mild covid cases from turning into serious ones.  The approved iv administered ones from Lilly and Regeneron  have proven highly effective.  Even better Merck is seeing promising results on one they are testing in pill form that could be approved by fall.

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For some reason (don't know why I would be with the way things have been going lol) I was surprised how far out Cunard went with their cancellations today 😉

 

Sailings on Queen Victoria are now canceled for departures up to and including August 27, 2021.

Canceling Queen Elizabeth’s all departures up to and including October 11, 2021.

For Queen Mary 2 we are canceling all departures up to and including November 12 this year.

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I think that you split the difference between the two.  I would fully expect Crystal to run  its Bahamas cruises in July.

 

Perhaps others not as soon.

 

My crystal ball says August.

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In the planning fight between Covid and me..... the score is Covid 3, me 0.

 

When questioned about our existing curfew and our ability to have our family legally allowed to come into our house this summer, our Provincial Health Director was non-commital....

 

He stated that in Covid time.... anything beyond a week is hard to predict, especially taking into consideration the new variants. The race is on between the variants and the vaccination, and unfortunately, our vaccination pace in Canada, is very slow...

 

Like most fellow Cruise Critics Members, I can’t wait to return on a cruise. Like all of you also, I try to read in the daily events, any signs of hope allowing to conclude, that cruises are finally back on.

 

Unfortunately, the virus does not seem to be quite comprehensive regarding our need to plan.... I believe, hope and pray that we’re going in the right direction!

 

But, one thing is sure, I really don’t envy, is the job of Cruise Lines leaders.... Being pressured financially by their action holders, by their employees, their customers, their partners etc. to plan and make decisions in a context, where so many variables are out of their control, including a mutating virus as well as a wide assortment of various national governmental regulations and devisions.! 

 

I raise my hat to their hard work and dedication. 

 

 

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I don't see cruising from American ports resuming until the normal kick-off to the Caribbean winter season in November at the earliest with test cruises going on maybe a month or two prior to that.

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5 hours ago, tallnthensome said:

Disney Cruises? They are still around?  Based on the two posts in the last year in that forum you would think they and their ludicrous prices were sunk long ago. 

 

There is another site for all things Disney that has a dedicated cruise forum.  Even before the pandemic, the Disney forum here was pretty slow.  That site covers all sorts of Disney-related travel, so it has a built-in audience. 

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6 hours ago, WestLakeGirl said:

Nothing will change by the fall? I think you are wrong.

 

as of today, NYT reports that nearly 30 % of Americans have had the virus, 18 % have had at least one shot, and even accounting for overlap, about 40% of Americans. Have some protection from Covid. 
 

by the fall, expect significant increases in protection

 

I believe the reference about no changes was to children being vaccinated.  I know there are studies happening right now but none of the vaccines is currently approved for use with anyone under 16.  If travel is contingent on being vaccinated, that leaves family groups out of it until children can get a shot.  An article I read earlier this week (I believe it was quoting Fauci) was saying teens in high school would probably be the first to get it, sometime in the early fall. 

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Considering Biden is essentially telling/ordering the states to open up to all adults to be vaccinated beginning May 1st, this is a good thing.  I was assuming June/July before that happened.  If there are enough people vaccinated, cruising/traveling can begin again. I was thinking October, I may adjust that guess to August now.  There's a miniscule chance that there could be a 6-week Alaska season then, assuming Canada allows it.

 

That May 1st date is huge in so many ways, so here's hoping the states do it.  MANY people who are not yet eligible, like me, want to be vaccinated.  I know there are those who don't (not going to get into that discussion if you're one of those, this is NOT the place for it), but there are enough that will get their shot that covid won't be the big bad Bogey man any more.

 

I think Disney sees this and they're getting ready to be the first.

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13 hours ago, WestLakeGirl said:

Nothing will change by the fall? I think you are wrong.

 

as of today, NYT reports that nearly 30 % of Americans have had the virus, 18 % have had at least one shot, and even accounting for overlap, about 40% of Americans. Have some protection from Covid. 
 

by the fall, expect significant increases in protection

 

Sorry but you missed the context of the discussion.  Children will not have a vaccine by the fall.  Nothing will change between the summer to the fall relative to vaccinations for children.

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14 hours ago, tallnthensome said:

Disney Cruises? They are still around?  Based on the two posts in the last year in that forum you would think they and their ludicrous prices were sunk long ago. 

 

A hardcore Disney fanatic knows no limits when it comes to money and their Disney fix 😆 The amount my sister spent on their 4 night cruise + park stay was absolutely insane.

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14 hours ago, tallnthensome said:

Disney Cruises? They are still around?  Based on the two posts in the last year in that forum you would think they and their ludicrous prices were sunk long ago. 

Join some Disney Cruise facebook groups for a good laugh. Those cruisers are incredibly loyal and think every other line is pretty much low class with horrible service. 

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9 hours ago, WonderMan3 said:

I don't see cruising from American ports resuming until the normal kick-off to the Caribbean winter season in November at the earliest with test cruises going on maybe a month or two prior to that.

 

I agree, the cruiselines will need at least 8 weeks for inspections, test cruises, more inspections, before resuming paid cruises. There's no way Celebrity can meet this criteria before the summer season. Celebrity isn't cancelling now so they can use deposits to stabilize their cash flow.  

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Whether a Disney or Celebrity cruise ship, even with vaccinations on a fast pace in the US, the bottleneck will be getting the crew assembled, vaccinated and trained on new procedures.  The only way to accelerate this to cruising out of US ports this fall would be for cruise lines to have the crew be designated essential workers in the US (in Florida?) and perhaps work on large contracts by mid-summer with the one-shot J&J vaccine.

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16 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Whether a Disney or Celebrity cruise ship, even with vaccinations on a fast pace in the US, the bottleneck will be getting the crew assembled, vaccinated and trained on new procedures.  The only way to accelerate this to cruising out of US ports this fall would be for cruise lines to have the crew be designated essential workers in the US (in Florida?) and perhaps work on large contracts by mid-summer with the one-shot J&J vaccine.

Essential worker status for the crew, that's a joke right? If their business isn't considered essential why would the workers be?

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Just now, grandgeezer said:

Essential worker status for the crew, that's a joke right? If their business isn't considered essential why would the workers be?

Yes I know it is a big stretch for this to happen.  But a state like FL might perhaps designate workers supporting tourism to be essential which is a big part of their economy.  Anyway my point is that getting the crew vaccinated will be the big hurdle to resuming cruising.

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19 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Yes I know it is a big stretch for this to happen.  But a state like FL might perhaps designate workers supporting tourism to be essential which is a big part of their economy.  Anyway my point is that getting the crew vaccinated will be the big hurdle to resuming cruising.

 You're 100% correct.  Are the auto workers in Illinois essential workers?  Maybe if manufacturing is a big part of the economy in Illinois.   Resuming travel and tourism is vital for many people in Florida for them to return to work and resume their lives.    At present, the vaccine demand far outpaces supply but that will likely change in April.  It's entirely possible that Florida could allocate vaccine to crew for cruise ships in just a few weeks.  

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