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A random thought occured to me concerning the future of NCL.

I have seen, in the past, in the golf course industry, something that may end up with a parallel in the cruise industry.

A corporation begins to build a golf course and, toward the end of construction, they begin to run out of funds. So, in order to get a quick infusion of cash, they offer something like a lifetime membership in the course at a low low unbelievable price.

Plenty of people sign up, the golf course finishes and is opened for business. 

Within a short period of time the owners sell the course and those who had 'lifetime' memberships were out of luck because the new owners were under no legal obligation to honor the memberships.

If Norwegian cannot financially survive this pandemic I wonder if they would declare bankruptcy, new blood buys all of their assets and reopens under a new name without incurring any obligations to those of us who have FCCs and cash deposits on future cruises?

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Any cruise line bankruptcy would likely be merely a restructuring, and creditor protection, where creditors of the company are offered equity in the company in place of the money due.

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Good point.  I had that thought last year when they cancelled the first cruise.  All of mine were cancelled and I took my cash refund on all of them.  I don't like flipping a coin on whether my money is gone or not.

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8 hours ago, SouthLyonCruiser said:

If Norwegian cannot financially survive this pandemic I wonder if they would declare bankruptcy, new blood buys all of their assets and reopens under a new name without incurring any obligations to those of us who have FCCs and cash deposits on future cruises?

They may survive this pandemic but some "experts" believe there is a strong possibility of a second pandemic of some kind within 10 years. Predictions which if came to pass would surely see lockdowns and everything else seen this time around. Would they survive a second pandemic? Would any cruise line?

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There could be a second pandemic- best to kind of wait before giving them any sort of money. Plenty of time to book a good cruise later. Glad I didn't take a credit for a non-existent cruise I would have had to book. 

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12 hours ago, SouthLyonCruiser said:

A random thought occured to me concerning the future of NCL.

I have seen, in the past, in the golf course industry, something that may end up with a parallel in the cruise industry.

A corporation begins to build a golf course and, toward the end of construction, they begin to run out of funds. So, in order to get a quick infusion of cash, they offer something like a lifetime membership in the course at a low low unbelievable price.

Plenty of people sign up, the golf course finishes and is opened for business. 

Within a short period of time the owners sell the course and those who had 'lifetime' memberships were out of luck because the new owners were under no legal obligation to honor the memberships.

If Norwegian cannot financially survive this pandemic I wonder if they would declare bankruptcy, new blood buys all of their assets and reopens under a new name without incurring any obligations to those of us who have FCCs and cash deposits on future cruises?

 

Anything is possible, but a tough business model to hose your most loyal customers then expect that they would be the ones to come back to the new company.  If the line is to continue as is, then it's quite likely that even through a bankruptcy, the new owners would want to do what they could to keep the existing customer base.

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3 hours ago, HowardK said:

There could be a second pandemic- best to kind of wait before giving them any sort of money. Plenty of time to book a good cruise later. Glad I didn't take a credit for a non-existent cruise I would have had to book. 



There COULD BE a meteor impact that destroys the Earth.  There COULD BE a explosion of the Sun.  There COULD BE a new species of killer butterflies that take over the entire planet...

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6 hours ago, ace2542 said:

They may survive this pandemic but some "experts" believe there is a strong possibility of a second pandemic of some kind within 10 years. Predictions which if came to pass would surely see lockdowns and everything else seen this time around. Would they survive a second pandemic? Would any cruise line?



Some experts if they do not know that the Earth has had several dozen pandemics already.  They may think there might be ANOTHER pandemic but they should all well know there have already be far more than two.  Stop the fear mongering.

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Unlike your golf course comparison, the cruise lines are publicly held company. Bankruptcy is a very real possibility, but it would be costly for some. Some of the loans were guaranteed with assets. If they file bankruptcy, some lines will lose ships and private islands. I am fairly certain cruise lines are looking at contingencies. Although infrastructure is not their now, they could easily bypass the CDC and build terminals in the Bahamas, Cozumel, etc. At least places like those are willing to discuss operations.

 

As for another pandemic, it is definitely possible. We see one about every decade anyway. The real issue is the full investigation into this one to determine if in fact it was a weaponized disease. There are countries that allow research that most countries condemn. They are developing and testing things that would turn peoples stomach here. The problem now is countries that are not the friendliest to us have a playbook and exact methods on how to attack. Bioweapons, cyber attacks, etc. One was recently caught on poisoning the water supply for an area. 

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5 hours ago, MoCruiseFan said:



Some experts if they do not know that the Earth has had several dozen pandemics already.  They may think there might be ANOTHER pandemic but they should all well know there have already be far more than two.  Stop the fear mongering.

sounds good

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10 hours ago, dolfan1980 said:

 

Anything is possible, but a tough business model to hose your most loyal customers then expect that they would be the ones to come back to the new company.  If the line is to continue as is, then it's quite likely that even through a bankruptcy, the new owners would want to do what they could to keep the existing customer base.

I like your thinking and sincerely hope you are correct if this scenario happens

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7 hours ago, MoCruiseFan said:



There COULD BE a meteor impact that destroys the Earth.  There COULD BE a explosion of the Sun.  There COULD BE a new species of killer butterflies that take over the entire planet...

The snide comment is appreciated. You may have missed the 'merely speculation' part of my post.

But maybe this helps give your life meaning and gets you some of the attention you crave.

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No one knows what might happen but it doesn’t hurt to prepare for a real possibility, as opposed to killer butterflies or the sun exploding.  Expect the best but prepare for the worst.  When my cruise was cancelled I opted for a refund.

 

I don’t think passengers would get the shaft in a Chapter 11 bankruptcy but you never know.  I think the shareholders might have more to be concerned about.  Look at what happened to the GM shareholders back in 2009 when GM went Chapter 11.

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If the new owners would not accept all the FCC`s or whatever money of the old NCL customers this would be almost a suicide directly at the beginning. Cause in this case at least 50-70% would never use this new cruise line.And this would be hundreds of thousands of passengers. No cruise line can risk that. If new owners accept the FCC and get the people on board then they can still earn a lot of money with them.(up charge restaurants and other upcharge attraction,s excoursions and all forms of other on-board spendings)

 

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11 hours ago, MoCruiseFan said:



There COULD BE a meteor impact that destroys the Earth.  There COULD BE a explosion of the Sun.  There COULD BE a new species of killer butterflies that take over the entire planet...

Yes...just think "Planet of the Apes"

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I recently cancelled my NCL booking and received a full refund within 7 days. Doesn't look like a company on the verge of imminent bankruptcy to me. 

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13 hours ago, CruiseMH said:

If the new owners would not accept all the FCC`s or whatever money of the old NCL customers this would be almost a suicide directly at the beginning. Cause in this case at least 50-70% would never use this new cruise line.And this would be hundreds of thousands of passengers. No cruise line can risk that. If new owners accept the FCC and get the people on board then they can still earn a lot of money with them.(up charge restaurants and other upcharge attraction,s excoursions and all forms of other on-board spendings)

 

 

 

You are making the assumption that any possible bankruptcy filing would involve there even being 'new owners'.  Also your 50%-70% and "hundreds of thousands" are both is pure speculation and opinion.

 

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9 hours ago, MoCruiseFan said:

 

 

You are making the assumption that any possible bankruptcy filing would involve there even being 'new owners'.  Also your 50%-70% and "hundreds of thousands" are both is pure speculation and opinion.

 

 

what on earth is your problem?

The title of this topic is "pure speculation" and the base of each forum on this planet is that users are posting their opinions.

Is it forbidden to post anything which is just a personal opinion ? I never mentioned that my post is based on scientifically proven facts and i would never do it.

What are you expecting ? Some officials from the cruise lines to post the exact booking statistics and bankruptcy plans ?

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7 hours ago, CruiseMH said:

 

what on earth is your problem?

The title of this topic is "pure speculation" and the base of each forum on this planet is that users are posting their opinions.

Is it forbidden to post anything which is just a personal opinion ? I never mentioned that my post is based on scientifically proven facts and i would never do it.

What are you expecting ? Some officials from the cruise lines to post the exact booking statistics and bankruptcy plans ?

 

 

On that note I think you are misinformed at how a forum works also.  Sure, people post their opinions on forums.  Other people then view those and comment on them, sometimes in agreement and some not.  Just because you throw out an opinion does not mean someone cannot disagree.

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On 3/17/2021 at 7:44 PM, ace2542 said:

They may survive this pandemic but some "experts" believe there is a strong possibility of a second pandemic of some kind within 10 years. Predictions which if came to pass would surely see lockdowns and everything else seen this time around. Would they survive a second pandemic? Would any cruise line?

Ok, Who is that "expert"... 

 

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7 minutes ago, sunbrookgal said:

Ok, Who is that "expert"... 

 

Some guy with letters before or after his name with some fancy job title. You know the type.

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17 hours ago, ray98 said:

 

 

On that note I think you are misinformed at how a forum works also.  Sure, people post their opinions on forums.  Other people then view those and comment on them, sometimes in agreement and some not.  Just because you throw out an opinion does not mean someone cannot disagree.

 

Of course everybody can disagree ,that is absolutely ok.If we all had the same opinion the world would be boring.

But this guy did not claim WHAT my opinion was,he claimed that it was ONLY an opinion and ONLY speculation.

 

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