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In follow-up to a mid-January thread, I have again consulted my crystal ball (overturned fish bowl), the lights flickered and a gust of wind strangely whipped up inside my office....and here is what my old tired eyes see.....

 

In January the first bend point was 60 million people fully vaccinated.  That is about 120 million jabs.  Each Moderna and Pfizer have passed 55 million jabs, and J&J just starting.  So next week, the US will reach that 120 million jabs level.  The vulnerable ages for COVID will mostly be fully vaccinated, so hospitalizations, which are falling quite rapidly,  should be in free fall in about 2 weeks.  Five weeks from now the number of deaths per day should also be in free fall.  

 

100 million people vaccinated is the next bend point.  At the current rate, that equates to approximately late April.  Therefore by early to Mid May, the number of cases will show dramatic downturns.  

 

Provided there is no new spike due to a new variant or such, in May the US, the people, the governments and yes, even the dreaded (on these boards anyway) CDC will be under a sun of optimism, enthusiasm, and giddiness trying to open things up.  Of course an important issue with cruising is......ships are not painted upon a painted sea, they actually travel to other lands.  So those other lands will also need to have overcome this pandemic to the point they are willing to open their homelands.  

 

So crystal ball says......(1) CDC you better get ready with the test sail rules of sailing and release them soon, because they will be needed for June or July test sailings.   

..........(2) US should offer, as UK has done, to donate excess vaccines to other countries to help vaccinate the world. US should not hold them for boosters in the future, as any boosters will be the next generation, with protection from sequenced variants.

..........(3) Cruise passengers may expect at first just a couple of ships sailing at 50% capacity, with limited stops, most likely with only vaccinated crew and passengers, to sail mid summer. Not sure about masks.

.........(4)  In the months following more ships per carrier can be added per month, until most ships are a sail late in the year.

.........(5)  As the numbers continue to improve in the US and US origin port stop countries, the ship capacity can slowly increase to 60%, 75%, but I don't see 100% before the summer of 2022, if then.

.........(6) US Cruisers with fourth quarter cruises on the books, should be confident they will sail. 

.........(7) UK Cruisers look for about the same timing, but one difference, where you sail to seems to have dragged their feet at every decision making moment.  They are paying for it now with another spike.  So you may be limited to British Isle tours until Europe numbers allow for them to open their homelands.

 

PS...I know you may find this hard to believe, but I am not really clairvoyant, still trying to master that.   

 

May the cruise odds be in your favor, the sun will rise again,

At your service, Eddie

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2 minutes ago, twangster said:

I just want to know if the fish survived. 

 

I placed him in the toilet for safe keeping while clairvoyantizing.....(sound from other room)...DOH.

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7 minutes ago, Eddie Wilson said:

In January the first bend point was 60 million people fully vaccinated.  That is about 120 million jabs.  Each Moderna and Pfizer have passed 55 million jabs, and J&J just starting.  So next week, the US will reach that 120 million jabs level.  The vulnerable ages for COVID will mostly be fully vaccinated, so hospitalizations, which are falling quite rapidly,  should be in free fall in about 2 weeks.  Five weeks from now the number of deaths per day should also be in free fall.  

 

 

Here in Philadelphia suburbs majority of those in group 1A (65 and older or people with underlying health conditions) had not even been scheduled for vaccination, much less fully vaccinated.  There is a two month wait before you are even called to schedule.

 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, PCHENG said:

 

 

Here in Philadelphia suburbs majority of those in group 1A (65 and older or people with underlying health conditions) had not even been scheduled for vaccination, much less fully vaccinated.  There is a two month wait before you are even called to schedule.

 

 

Sounds like something is rotten in the state of Denmark....er....Bucks County.  What is wrong over there?  I am sure there are locals that are behind the curve, but that is crazy.  On average, US doing a pretty darn good job at about 2.5 milions jabs per day. 

Ohio is open to 40 and over tomorrow.  Indiana and Kentucky about the same.

Edited by Eddie Wilson
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Georgia has opened vaccinations to 55 and older and essential  workers (i.e. teachers, police, etc.). We expect the age requirement to drop some more in the next week or so.

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53 minutes ago, baldilocks said:

Georgia has opened vaccinations to 55 and older and essential  workers (i.e. teachers, police, etc.). We expect the age requirement to drop some more in the next week or so.

Arkansas also but under 55 now so it's a free for all here.  I'm done hubby gets his first next week.

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1 hour ago, Eddie Wilson said:

In follow-up to a mid-January thread, I have again consulted my crystal ball (overturned fish bowl), the lights flickered and a gust of wind strangely whipped up inside my office....and here is what my old tired eyes see.....

 

In January the first bend point was 60 million people fully vaccinated.  That is about 120 million jabs.  Each Moderna and Pfizer have passed 55 million jabs, and J&J just starting.  So next week, the US will reach that 120 million jabs level.  The vulnerable ages for COVID will mostly be fully vaccinated, so hospitalizations, which are falling quite rapidly,  should be in free fall in about 2 weeks.  Five weeks from now the number of deaths per day should also be in free fall.  

 

100 million people vaccinated is the next bend point.  At the current rate, that equates to approximately late April.  Therefore by early to Mid May, the number of cases will show dramatic downturns.  

 

Provided there is no new spike due to a new variant or such, in May the US, the people, the governments and yes, even the dreaded (on these boards anyway) CDC will be under a sun of optimism, enthusiasm, and giddiness trying to open things up.  Of course an important issue with cruising is......ships are not painted upon a painted sea, they actually travel to other lands.  So those other lands will also need to have overcome this pandemic to the point they are willing to open their homelands.  

 

So crystal ball says......(1) CDC you better get ready with the test sail rules of sailing and release them soon, because they will be needed for June or July test sailings.   

..........(2) US should offer, as UK has done, to donate excess vaccines to other countries to help vaccinate the world. US should not hold them for boosters in the future, as any boosters will be the next generation, with protection from sequenced variants.

..........(3) Cruise passengers may expect at first just a couple of ships sailing at 50% capacity, with limited stops, most likely with only vaccinated crew and passengers, to sail mid summer. Not sure about masks.

.........(4)  In the months following more ships per carrier can be added per month, until most ships are a sail late in the year.

.........(5)  As the numbers continue to improve in the US and US origin port stop countries, the ship capacity can slowly increase to 60%, 75%, but I don't see 100% before the summer of 2022, if then.

.........(6) US Cruisers with fourth quarter cruises on the books, should be confident they will sail. 

.........(7) UK Cruisers look for about the same timing, but one difference, where you sail to seems to have dragged their feet at every decision making moment.  They are paying for it now with another spike.  So you may be limited to British Isle tours until Europe numbers allow for them to open their homelands.

 

PS...I know you may find this hard to believe, but I am not really clairvoyant, still trying to master that.   

 

May the cruise odds be in your favor, the sun will rise again,

At your service, Eddie

Still need crew, vaccinated crew. 

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36 minutes ago, Mapleleafforever said:

Still need crew, vaccinated crew. 

 

They have already contacted crew, detailing what actions they need to get done prior to recall, and are figuring travel logistics. RCL will need to start moving crew about 60 days prior to their ships sailing. 

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1 hour ago, Eddie Wilson said:

 

They have already contacted crew, detailing what actions they need to get done prior to recall, and are figuring travel logistics. RCL will need to start moving crew about 60 days prior to their ships sailing. 

Ah, sorry, I neglected to keep in mind that it was a crystal ball and took it too literal. 

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3 hours ago, Eddie Wilson said:

 

Sounds like something is rotten in the state of Denmark....er....Bucks County.  What is wrong over there?  I am sure there are locals that are behind the curve, but that is crazy. 

 

Just to give an example of how piss poor the vaccination effort is in the Philadelphia suburbs, this is from a news article yesterday:

 

"And in Montgomery County, a spokeswoman says starting Tuesday, they will receive 5,850 doses each week for the next four weeks, a slight increase from the 4,680 they were receiving. They expect four to five months before all those in 1A are vaccinated".

 

For context, Montgomery county has a population of 830k.  

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20 minutes ago, PCHENG said:

 

Just to give an example of how piss poor the vaccination effort is in the Philadelphia suburbs, this is from a news article yesterday:

 

"And in Montgomery County, a spokeswoman says starting Tuesday, they will receive 5,850 doses each week for the next four weeks, a slight increase from the 4,680 they were receiving. They expect four to five months before all those in 1A are vaccinated".

 

For context, Montgomery county has a population of 830k.  

 

Four to five months for the very first group?  That's absurd.  Are residents limited to receiving the vaccine only in the county in which they live?  Down here in NC, it's a free-for-all, so people are traveling all over the state to get vaccinated (though I lucked into one five minutes from my house).

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4 hours ago, PCHENG said:

 

 

Here in Philadelphia suburbs majority of those in group 1A (65 and older or people with underlying health conditions) had not even been scheduled for vaccination, much less fully vaccinated.  There is a two month wait before you are even called to schedule.

 

Philly suburb here - 65+ group.  I got an appointment at CVS last night for Monday afternoon.  Three other family members already have first dose.  From personal experience I would say things are looking up.

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2 hours ago, danv3 said:

 

Four to five months for the very first group?  That's absurd.  Are residents limited to receiving the vaccine only in the county in which they live?  Down here in NC, it's a free-for-all, so people are traveling all over the state to get vaccinated (though I lucked into one five minutes from my house).

 

I don't think residents are limited to the county they reside.  The shortage here is so bad the county commissioner actually recommended people go get vaccinated in other PA counties.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Lady Hudson said:

Philly suburb here - 65+ group.  I got an appointment at CVS last night for Monday afternoon.  Three other family members already have first dose.  From personal experience I would say things are looking up.

 

If you don't mind me asking, which county do you reside, and when did you register for the vaccine?  The Inquirer says Montgomery County is currently scheduling shots for people who registered for the vaccine in mid-January.

 

Edited by PCHENG
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3 hours ago, PCHENG said:

 

Just to give an example of how piss poor the vaccination effort is in the Philadelphia suburbs, this is from a news article yesterday:

 

"And in Montgomery County, a spokeswoman says starting Tuesday, they will receive 5,850 doses each week for the next four weeks, a slight increase from the 4,680 they were receiving. They expect four to five months before all those in 1A are vaccinated".

 

For context, Montgomery county has a population of 830k.  

I live in Bucks County and we both had our first dose on march 4th and scheduled to get 2nd jab of pfizer next week.  Yes, there has been some issues with counties in southeastern PA but our supply of vaccine has begun to drastically improve this week.   Teachers now getting J&J.

Many of my friends, family and co-workers have been vaccinated.  

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5 hours ago, dodgestang said:

Funny news is reporting 100 million people have have gotten the vaccine at the 58 days in Biden admin....so now.....not at some point in April

Yes Dodge, there have been near 112 million doses as of today, but that is not considered FULLY vaccinated.  Using an approx 2 to 1 ratio, even though it’s not exact, at 120 million jabs about 60 million people FULLY vaccinated.  Then give a couple of weeks for full efficacy.

 

At 2.5 million jabs per day average, that equates to about 32 more days to have 200 million jabs, which should be late April and rough math 100 million fully vaccinated.

 

By Sometime near June, they are expecting swimming pools of excess vaccines, which means if cruise lines can get crew here, if they are not already vaccinated, they should be able to get a J&J one shot vaccine here. If vaccinated here in US, the cruise lines will want J&J since the efficacy is achieved more quickly than the 2 dose regimen.

 

However, after reading about Philly, I think they will need to send in a Calvary with some of those excess doses to help them along.  My kids in Ohio and Kent in 30’s have all received first doses.

 

Eddie

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20 minutes ago, PCHENG said:

 

If you don't mind me asking, which county do you reside, and when did you register for the vaccine?  The Inquirer says Montgomery County is currently scheduling shots for people who registered for the vaccine in mid-January.

 

I'm in bucks county.  I registered with our dept of health on jan 16th and received email end of feb that I could schedule.  Due to my work schedule i picked march 4th and my 2nd shot was scheduled while I at local community college for shot.

I personally thought the process was very smooth and was surprised when i received my invite email.

So many people are panicking and scrambling looking at various websites and calling places everyday.   All that stress Not good for their health either.  I figured I would just wait till they notified me and it worked.  

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6 hours ago, BecciBoo said:

That better include my Sept. 12th sailing or I'll be quite the unhappy cruiser!!!!!! GRRRRRRRRRR

Why should you get your sailing... both of my October ones have gone.... SSSPPPLLLLaaaaTTTT

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Posted (edited)
On 3/18/2021 at 8:58 PM, xpcdoojk said:

Why should you get your sailing... both of my October ones have gone.... SSSPPPLLLLaaaaTTTT

Now Now!!! lol  Hey, we've shifted 5 times already!  Let it be, Let it be!

Edited by BecciBoo
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