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Celebrity will be restarting cruising out of St. Maarten on June 5th with Millennium


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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, markeb said:

 

It's a pretty tough document, no argument. It does address the bulk of the issues dealing with quarantine of test positives and medical management of actual cases. This is the point, with vaccinations underway, where I'd expect industry to ask for technical clarification in light of vaccinations. But have the rest of it drafted. They had to answer the bulk of those questions to be "Green" for crew transport. And there are technical clarifications posted for crew transportation, probably as the result of industry questions. There are no technical clarifications posted for passenger transportation, probably because the industry hasn't asked.

I had a different take away after reading the document/framework.  I think it is bureaucratic B.S.  The  CDC was not allowed to shut down all cruises for as long as they wanted, so they created a requirement that could not possible be done.

Edited by jagoffee
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4 hours ago, jagoffee said:

I had a different take away after reading the document/framework.  I think it is bureaucratic B.S.  The  CDC was not allowed to shut down all cruises for as long as they wanted, so they created a requirement that could not possible be done.

The burdensome requirements were a replacement for the No Sail Order but achieved the same thing.  But all done prior to vaccines.  They need to update the requirements and us.

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13 hours ago, Fouremco said:

Thanks Ken. That's truly unfortunate.

Not the whole story, though. Alabama is a leader in rural vaccinations and vaccinations in African American communities. The state health dept has used a good chunk of their supply to get vaccine out to Black Belt counties and other rural counties, so the urban areas may be lagging a bit behind some other urban areas. Saw an article just this week where the teachers in the school district in Tuskegee were over 75% vaccinated. They have leaned heavily on getting vaccine to the vulnerable populations. We are lagging behind other Southern states particularly in opening up to younger ages, but I'm not certain that's a bad thing, even though it delayed my DH's vaccination - I think it was decided at the state level, since we aren't dropping mask mandate until after Easter, to use these extra weeks to get vulnerable persons a shot, then open up to the masses.

 

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19 hours ago, nocl said:

I believe that there is another part of this from the cruise lines point of view.  I believe that the cruise lines want to come out of the pandemic without expanded CDC reporting requirements (illness on board) and CDC monitoring of operation practices compared to prior to the pandemic.

 

I believe that this is and has been part of the cruise lines issues when dealing with the CDC. The last things the cruise lines want is a precedent of having to provide detailed reports to the CDC and the CDC wanting detailed reports of cruise line practices and procedures.

Yes that is an interesting point!

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16 hours ago, Fouremco said:

Either Georgia has been very lucky with its supply or a lot of people haven't bothered to get vaccinated. Hopefully the former.

Unfortunately it's the latter. GA recently closed a mass vaccination site in the rural south part of the state because they were only administering 100 shots a day, there was no demand.

 

I know there is a similar issue in TN. I was only able to get vaccinated by driving out to a rural area. In my metro area there were no appointments available for weeks, but in the rural area the Walmart I chose had at least 20 open appointment slots a day. 

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38 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

Not the whole story, though. Alabama is a leader in rural vaccinations and vaccinations in African American communities. The state health dept has used a good chunk of their supply to get vaccine out to Black Belt counties and other rural counties, so the urban areas may be lagging a bit behind some other urban areas. Saw an article just this week where the teachers in the school district in Tuskegee were over 75% vaccinated. They have leaned heavily on getting vaccine to the vulnerable populations. We are lagging behind other Southern states particularly in opening up to younger ages, but I'm not certain that's a bad thing, even though it delayed my DH's vaccination - I think it was decided at the state level, since we aren't dropping mask mandate until after Easter, to use these extra weeks to get vulnerable persons a shot, then open up to the masses.

 

 

3 minutes ago, AbbyCruiser45 said:

Unfortunately it's the latter. GA recently closed a mass vaccination site in the rural south part of the state because they were only administering 100 shots a day, there was no demand.

 

I know there is a similar issue in TN. I was only able to get vaccinated by driving out to a rural area. In my metro area there were no appointments available for weeks, but in the rural area the Walmart I chose had at least 20 open appointment slots a day. 

Thank you both for your insight. We see so many statistics, but far less often do we see the underlying stories. 

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31 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Yes that is an interesting point!

 

Read a similar thought on another site where the poster claimed some knowledge that the CDC Vessel Sanitation Program, which monitors norovirus data and procedures, is being overhauled to handle COVID oversight. The reorganization is causing a major slowdown. 

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Posted (edited)

while the topic here is focused on covid, part of the issue is cash flow of all cruise lines.

RCL just reported its going to issue new debt -to pay off debt coming due this year and next. Bloomberg when reporting said it was , no surprise, junk rated.

 

https://www.rclinvestor.com/press-releases/release/?id=1520

 

thus , assuming it gets done, and cruises start where the new cruises are cash flow positive for the companies even with reduced capacity rules, and costs, I think means in this case RCL consolidated has sufficient cash to get well into next year.

This bought a few more months by deferring debt due the next 12-18 months to year 2028.

Edited by HMR74
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Another new email from Celebrity with a count-down until tomorrow, but still no actual info about flights by Celebrity to get us to St Maarten, guess we have to wait until tomorrow and make a last minute decision. 

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2 hours ago, cangelmd said:

Not the whole story, though. Alabama is a leader in rural vaccinations and vaccinations in African American communities. The state health dept has used a good chunk of their supply to get vaccine out to Black Belt counties and other rural counties, so the urban areas may be lagging a bit behind some other urban areas. Saw an article just this week where the teachers in the school district in Tuskegee were over 75% vaccinated. They have leaned heavily on getting vaccine to the vulnerable populations. We are lagging behind other Southern states particularly in opening up to younger ages, but I'm not certain that's a bad thing, even though it delayed my DH's vaccination - I think it was decided at the state level, since we aren't dropping mask mandate until after Easter, to use these extra weeks to get vulnerable persons a shot, then open up to the masses.

 

In my state (PA) we are ranked 19th (good) but there is a tiered allocation system.  The city of Philadelphia has its own rules and allocation entirely outside the state and county rules.   And there is also a socioeconomic priority too for certain zip codes in Philadelphia as others here have reported for their states.   But the other large city (Pittsburgh) falls under the county and state rules.  The most populous suburban counties (like my county Montgomery) are fighting the state to get more vaccine doses.  The state is giving rural counties more vaccine per capita than the highly populated counties.  This has become a political battle.

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RCL is selling inside and ocean staterooms for their new sailings out of Nassau. I believe Celebrity mentioned they were only selling cabins with balconies. Is this confirmed? Or will we just be surprised tomorrow when going to book? 

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10 hours ago, jagoffee said:

I had a different take away after reading the document/framework.  I think it is bureaucratic B.S.  The  CDC was not allowed to shut down all cruises for as long as they wanted, so they created a requirement that could not possible be done.

Actually they could have just kept the no sale order in place based upon the reasons provided.  Basically as long as the epidemic emergency declaration remains in place.

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5 hours ago, TeeRick said:

The burdensome requirements were a replacement for the No Sail Order but achieved the same thing.  But all done prior to vaccines.  They need to update the requirements and us.

Based upon what I just heard on CNBC (that the CDC has reiterated the current requirements will remain until November) I suspect that the only thing that will cause the CDC to change it earlier will be that  disease incident rate falls sufficiently.  The vaccine being a necessary, but not sufficient condition in logic terms.

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2 hours ago, cruisnfool said:

So I read the letter from CEO that stated 1999 for balcony including air. Do you think the air is from major gateway cities or FLL?

My TA, based on a meeting with the Celebrity rep, tells me it is airfare from wherever you are and it is included.  I will believe it when I see it.  And I assume "wherever you are" might in any event be limited to the US or maybe to North America.

 

Tom & Judy

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5 minutes ago, TFree said:

My TA, based on a meeting with the Celebrity rep, tells me it is airfare from wherever you are and it is included.  I will believe it when I see it.  And I assume "wherever you are" might in any event be limited to the US or maybe to North America.

 

Tom & Judy

 

While airfare is creeping up, it's still cheaper than its been in years, perhaps X got some good deals.

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1 hour ago, TFree said:

My TA, based on a meeting with the Celebrity rep, tells me it is airfare from wherever you are and it is included.  I will believe it when I see it.  And I assume "wherever you are" might in any event be limited to the US or maybe to North America.

 

Tom & Judy

So the people leaving from Seattle will pay the same airfare as those leaving from Miami or Ft. Lauderdale? I’m sure the flights available at that price will be the ones with the shortest flight times, leaving at the best departure times.

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9 minutes ago, HMR74 said:

image.png.f57fff55514cb51c9a04689bbe0f52ec.png

 

A very poor headline that doesn't reflect what is said in the body of the article. There is a world of difference between "Extends Moratorium" and "will remain in effect".

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6 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

A very poor headline that doesn't reflect what is said in the body of the article. There is a world of difference between "Extends Moratorium" and "will remain in effect".

you are deep in the weeds unless you can provide what's good about this.

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/24/cdc-keeps-cruise-restrictions-in-place-until-nov-1/

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2021/03/24/cdc-rejects-cruise-industry-push-to-resume-sailing-sending-stocks-tumbling/?sh=3bf7685d4eb1

 

 

bottom line-inho-the cruise lines will very likely move home ports to the Caribbean or other places.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, HMR74 said:

you are deep in the weeds unless you can provide what's good about this.

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/03/24/cdc-keeps-cruise-restrictions-in-place-until-nov-1/

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2021/03/24/cdc-rejects-cruise-industry-push-to-resume-sailing-sending-stocks-tumbling/?sh=3bf7685d4eb1

 

 

bottom line-inho-the cruise lines will very likely move home ports to the Caribbean or other places.

 

 

I was simply commenting on the erroneous headline, not on the impact of decision. The Motley Fool's headline gets it right, "Keep", not "Extends":

 

CDC Keeps Cruise Restrictions in Place Until Nov. 1

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it depends on what we do not know, which is a lot, but I think this "shtick" war between the CDC and other agencies, including Congress not seeking to help their local businesses,  , and cruise lines and businesses dependent on cruising including a lot of jobs, and places like Ft. Lauderdale and Miami  and others,  is going to go front and center.

 

It could be fun to watch, but we all here have money invested with cruise lines in the form of "customer deposits", some for the  full price of a couple or few cruises,  as well as the experience of cruising.  All the agents we work with have just lost commissions on another 5 months of bookings. And a motherload of people thinking they could get back to work soon, goes poof.

 

Does anybody remember James Carville "It's the Economy, stupid"  in 1992 election (actually it was a bit different that that but this will suffice).

 

The CDC just knocked off a nice sized chunk of GDP.  economic growth activity. and will probably cause more business bankruptcies.

 

Now whats the next chess move by the Cruise lines: do they first just cancel all cruises to October 31, and who really wants to be booked on a Nov Cruise.

 

Enter the home ports outside the US--the issue there is a cruise starting and ending  there now ups the cost of getting there, wherever there will be, but makes the travel a full day at best for most in the northern cities including Canada.  And its not like you can do pre or post cruise touring especially if you have been to those posts several times before.

And all the logistics.

 

Oh, I did say earlier this would end up being a test of which group has more leverage--now we get to see.

 

 

 

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