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I sold my royal stock today at 90 bucks a share bought in at 20 bucks.i cant believe its 90 bucks but it will be many years until it reaches 130/share.. ships aren't sailing full and i sold it because a lot of people are not comfortable getting the vaccine ( iam vaccinated) and now they are requiring it to sail on there ships so they will lose a ton of business. I think the stock will go down.but im happy selling at 90. i didn't expect it to reach 50 so that was a nice surprise. i will buy again when it dips.

Edited by pinnacleking2021
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1 hour ago, pinnacleking2021 said:

I sold my royal stock today at 90 bucks a share bought in at 20 bucks.i cant believe its 90 bucks but it will be many years until it reaches 130/share.. ships aren't sailing full and i sold it because a lot of people are not comfortable getting the vaccine ( iam vaccinated) and now they are requiring it to sail on there ships so they will lose a ton of business. I think the stock will go down.but im happy selling at 90. i didn't expect it to reach 50 so that was a nice surprise. i will buy again when it dips.

UBS just raised the price targets on Royal to $116, NCL to $32 and CCL to $42. Looking ahead they see 2023 as the most robust year in cruising history. 

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23 hours ago, pinnacleking2021 said:

... lot of people are not comfortable getting the vaccine ( iam vaccinated) and now they are requiring it to sail on there ships so they will lose a ton of business.

I personally think more people will be willing to sail if vaccines are required.

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23 hours ago, pinnacleking2021 said:

I sold my royal stock today at 90 bucks a share bought in at 20 bucks.i cant believe its 90 bucks but it will be many years until it reaches 130/share.. ships aren't sailing full and i sold it because a lot of people are not comfortable getting the vaccine ( iam vaccinated) and now they are requiring it to sail on there ships so they will lose a ton of business. I think the stock will go down.but im happy selling at 90. i didn't expect it to reach 50 so that was a nice surprise. i will buy again when it dips.

I think your underestimating.  I don't think they will lose as much as one may think.  I would bet a large percentage that say they will not sail if vaccine is required actually will, in fact, sail.  It's like every time Disney raises it's ticket prices and you hear the masses saying they will not pay it and will not return then they are posting about their latest trip and how wonderful it was.  

It's easy to say you won't but the pull is there.  People will be back, the cruise lines will not suffer because of this requirement.   

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Added another 100 shares on yesterday's dip. It'll be back in the 130's soon enough, especially with all the pent up demand. I don't think the vaccine requirements will have any meaningful impact.

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taglovestocruise-Thanks for the info. on the stock price expectations.  I was thinking of selling 900 of our 1000 shares of CCL and 100 shares of RCI soon.  I think I'll hold onto them longer now.  Sure has been a great investment!  We've tripled our money already!

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3 hours ago, jstraw20 said:

Added another 100 shares on yesterday's dip. It'll be back in the 130's soon enough, especially with all the pent up demand. I don't think the vaccine requirements will have any meaningful impact.

In this Robinhood, Gamestop, spac driven market anything is possible, but hard to argue that RCL shares are worth anywhere close to the same $130 they traded at a little over a year ago.  Since then they've burned through $ billions in cash,, put on a ton of debt increased their stock float over 25%.  2021 will be another lost year with maybe a partial recovery in 2022.  And that requires the virus to be contained and oil prices and interest rates to remain under control.  Not saying they won't survive, but it will take quite a few years for them to match 2019's level of profitability.   

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3 hours ago, DrivesLikeMario said:

taglovestocruise-Thanks for the info. on the stock price expectations.  I was thinking of selling 900 of our 1000 shares of CCL and 100 shares of RCI soon.  I think I'll hold onto them longer now.  .........Sure has been a great investment!..........  We've tripled our money already!

Remember the old adage.. investors get rich, pigs get slaughtered. That being said I am also holding a little longer.  A trailing sell order could be your friend. happy cruising  

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It's crazy the cruise companies are up around 400% from their lows when they have not sailed for a year and no real future sail dates are set disregarding the 2 ships in the Caribbean, and the amount of debt they have taken on.

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I’m with BB.  Fancy a business that doesn’t know when it will resume, takes on massive debt, has next to no income & some how the share price keeps rising.  I believe once they start cruising at 100% in a few years time, the repayment of the debt will cause major cash flow issues, hence, a share price reflecting a business struggling to pay its debts when & as they fall due.

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On 3/19/2021 at 7:23 PM, pinnacleking2021 said:

I sold my royal stock today at 90 bucks a share bought in at 20 bucks.i cant believe its 90 bucks but it will be many years until it reaches 130/share.. ships aren't sailing full and i sold it because a lot of people are not comfortable getting the vaccine ( iam vaccinated) and now they are requiring it to sail on there ships so they will lose a ton of business. I think the stock will go down.but im happy selling at 90. i didn't expect it to reach 50 so that was a nice surprise. i will buy again when it dips.

 

There might be currently quite a large number that are against getting vaccinated however over the next months even those will have no other choice than to get vaccinated as employers will be able to fire people, you will be banned from traveling etc. Hence, no one will be forced but in case they want to continue to have a life without restrictiond they will have no other choice.

Hence, selling your shares based on this asumption doesn't make any sense, based on the profit you made it does.

 

In the longer run the shares will get back to leves we saw before pandemic but currently they can easily go back to the 70's or even a bit lower on the shorter term.

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15 hours ago, taglovestocruise said:

Remember the old adage.. investors get rich, pigs get slaughtered. That being said I am also holding a little longer.  A trailing sell order could be your friend. happy cruising  

Yep.  Agree.  I plan to sell in the next quarter.

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MONDAY, MARCH 22, 2021 | MARKETBEAT

Royal Caribbean Group (NYSE:RCL) had its price target hoisted by investment analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. from $100.00 to $110.00 in a report issued on Monday, Benzinga reports. The brokerage presently has an "overweight" rating on the stock. JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s price objective would suggest a potential upside of 21.25% from the company's previous close.

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On 3/20/2021 at 5:48 PM, Baron Barracuda said:

In this Robinhood, Gamestop, spac driven market anything is possible, but hard to argue that RCL shares are worth anywhere close to the same $130 they traded at a little over a year ago.  Since then they've burned through $ billions in cash,, put on a ton of debt increased their stock float over 25%.  2021 will be another lost year with maybe a partial recovery in 2022.  And that requires the virus to be contained and oil prices and interest rates to remain under control.  Not saying they won't survive, but it will take quite a few years for them to match 2019's level of profitability.   

Glad to see the voice of reason and that someone besides me believes in fundamentals and earnings. Earnings vs losses. The whole well the loss will be less than forecast argument ... it still is losing money for the foreseeable future. Cdc and whomever now is being blamed is why. They cant sail from USA ports until the orders expire or someone lifts the orders.

 

Pent up demand aside ... demand doesnt help if the demand is from more and more cancelled cruises that people have fccs to use up.

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2 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Glad to see the voice of reason and that someone besides me believes in fundamentals and earnings. Earnings vs losses. The whole well the loss will be less than forecast argument ... it still is losing money for the foreseeable future. Cdc and whomever now is being blamed is why. They cant sail from USA ports until the orders expire or someone lifts the orders.

 

Pent up demand aside ... demand doesnt help if the demand is from more and more cancelled cruises that people have fccs to use up.

Pent up demand is a temporary and I believe overstated factor.  At re-start fewer ships sailing at reduced loads with tons of time-sensitive FCC's allows cruise lines to jack up fares.  Once all ships are back at sea the need to keep them sailing full will eventually cause fares to moderate.  

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I think you all might be missing a key factor in the stock price and all stock prices for that matter.  

 

The US government has printed so much money, and continues to prove it will continue to print as much money as necessary.  How can all stock prices fail to go up?  Are you going to put it in the bank?  Earning what 3/10 of a percent?  Or loan it to someone building a house with a real chance of default for 2.5%. T bills?  Municipal bonds?  Where can you put money where it can earn any real return?  The DW and I were genius last March as Covid was starting to rear its head, we opened a Capital 1 bank account and for our $50,000 deposit we got a $500 bonus and initially a 1% interest rate additionally.  Now, I have $51,000 in the account and don’t have another genius move.😝🤣

 

As an economist, I am not sure anyone ever thought through the world where the horrible managed US economy and the world’s currency of choice, would look good despite that because compared to the rest of the world we still look good.  So, would you rather invest in the USA or Europe?  Both bad choices, just one is not as bad.

 

I suspect that the upward trend will continue with massive corrections along the way until China replaces the US Dollar as the world’s currency, and the wheels fall off the bus.

 

Just my simple contrarian opinion.😇

 

jc

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3 minutes ago, xpcdoojk said:

I think you all might be missing a key factor in the stock price and all stock prices for that matter.  

 

The US government has printed so much money, and continues to prove it will continue to print as much money as necessary.  How can all stock prices fail to go up?  Are you going to put it in the bank?  Earning what 3/10 of a percent?  Or loan it to someone building a house with a real chance of default for 2.5%. T bills?  Municipal bonds?  Where can you put money where it can earn any real return?  The DW and I were genius last March as Covid was starting to rear its head, we opened a Capital 1 bank account and for our $50,000 deposit we got a $500 bonus and initially a 1% interest rate additionally.  Now, I have $51,000 in the account and don’t have another genius move.😝🤣

 

As an economist, I am not sure anyone ever thought through the world where the horrible managed US economy and the world’s currency of choice, would look good despite that because compared to the rest of the world we still look good.  So, would you rather invest in the USA or Europe?  Both bad choices, just one is not as bad.

 

I suspect that the upward trend will continue with massive corrections along the way until China replaces the US Dollar as the world’s currency, and the wheels fall off the bus.

 

Just my simple contrarian opinion.😇

 

jc

If I were sure it would drop, I'd go short. I'm neither short nor long. Money is going into value stocks these days. Low pe stocks that pay dividends. Everytime the 10 year treasury goes up, tech goes down, the rest is undecided. Oil stocks have been on fire. Cruise stocks lost their direction.

 

I do agree that money will go into stocks with all the money printing. Just dont necessarily agree rcl is where money will be going. What about inflation? Powell is holding short term rates low but the ten year treasury is signalling inflation. If the cdc would say ok cruises can resume, I'd agree with you. Cdc cso is going to hurt earnings imo thru nov 1st when its expired. Good chance cruises from usa dont resume until then. ... from a fundamental standpoint, I'll stay in oils, not rcl. I don't see recovery short term.

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3 minutes ago, xpcdoojk said:

I think you all might be missing a key factor in the stock price and all stock prices for that matter.  

 

The US government has printed so much money, and continues to prove it will continue to print as much money as necessary.  How can all stock prices fail to go up?  Are you going to put it in the bank?  Earning what 3/10 of a percent?  Or loan it to someone building a house with a real chance of default for 2.5%. T bills?  Municipal bonds?  Where can you put money where it can earn any real return?  The DW and I were genius last March as Covid was starting to rear its head, we opened a Capital 1 bank account and for our $50,000 deposit we got a $500 bonus and initially a 1% interest rate additionally.  Now, I have $51,000 in the account and don’t have another genius move.😝🤣

 

As an economist, I am not sure anyone ever thought through the world where the horrible managed US economy and the world’s currency of choice, would look good despite that because compared to the rest of the world we still look good.  So, would you rather invest in the USA or Europe?  Both bad choices, just one is not as bad.

 

I suspect that the upward trend will continue with massive corrections along the way until China replaces the US Dollar as the world’s currency, and the wheels fall off the bus.

 

Just my simple contrarian opinion.😇

 

jc

If I were sure it would drop, I'd go short. I'm neither short nor long. Money is going into value stocks these days. Low pe stocks that pay dividends. Everytime the 10 year treasury goes up, tech goes down, the rest is undecided. Oil stocks have been on fire. Cruise stocks lost their direction.

 

I do agree that money will go into stocks with all the money printing. Just dont necessarily agree rcl is where money will be going. What about inflation? Powell is holding short term rates low but the ten year treasury is signalling inflation. If the cdc would say ok cruises can resume, I'd agree with you. Cdc cso is going to hurt earnings imo thru nov 1st when its expired. Good chance cruises from usa dont resume until then. ... from a fundamental standpoint, I'll stay in oils, not rcl. I don't see recovery short term.

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5 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

If I were sure it would drop, I'd go short. I'm neither short nor long. Money is going into value stocks these days. Low pe stocks that pay dividends. Everytime the 10 year treasury goes up, tech goes down, the rest is undecided. Oil stocks have been on fire. Cruise stocks lost their direction.

 

I do agree that money will go into stocks with all the money printing. Just dont necessarily agree rcl is where money will be going. What about inflation? Powell is holding short term rates low but the ten year treasury is signalling inflation. If the cdc would say ok cruises can resume, I'd agree with you. Cdc cso is going to hurt earnings imo thru nov 1st when its expired. Good chance cruises from usa dont resume until then. ... from a fundamental standpoint, I'll stay in oils, not rcl. I don't see recovery short term.

From a fundamental point of view I agree with you.  

 

From a reality point of view, things are not normal, and I am not sure anything is really predictable.  Yes at some point inflation is beyond inevitable.  It is happening right now in positive ways.  IE stock pricing.  Home pricing.  Eventually, if interest rates begin to go up, then inflation will kick in.  The economy is standing on banana peels, there is nothing sound or solid.  

 

When the cruise stock prices went to something close to zero, I was too stupid to buy (I prefer cautious to stupid😇), but I am not surprised when they went up.  There is zero chance I would buy any travel related stock today.  Call me a coward.

 

jc

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

If I were sure it would drop, I'd go short. I'm neither short nor long. Money is going into value stocks these days. Low pe stocks that pay dividends. Everytime the 10 year treasury goes up, tech goes down, the rest is undecided. Oil stocks have been on fire. Cruise stocks lost their direction.

 

I do agree that money will go into stocks with all the money printing. Just dont necessarily agree rcl is where money will be going. What about inflation? Powell is holding short term rates low but the ten year treasury is signalling inflation. If the cdc would say ok cruises can resume, I'd agree with you. Cdc cso is going to hurt earnings imo thru nov 1st when its expired. Good chance cruises from usa dont resume until then. ... from a fundamental standpoint, I'll stay in oils, not rcl. I don't see recovery short term.

Majority of the new investor don't look at the fundamental at all today. They only care about high return in short time. If you look at all these GME, AMC etc, they are all up. The same for EV and now, spread to reopening stocks. RCL was a good investment opportunities but the debt and with the unknown back to real normal date, this stock is too risky and the upside is very limited. Again, I am not a financial advisor or economist, so don't listen to me and talk to your advisor. I have a few better stocks to put my money in.

Edited by jmhlin
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6 minutes ago, xpcdoojk said:

From a fundamental point of view I agree with you.  

 

From a reality point of view, things are not normal, and I am not sure anything is really predictable.  Yes at some point inflation is beyond inevitable.  It is happening right now in positive ways.  IE stock pricing.  Home pricing.  Eventually, if interest rates begin to go up, then inflation will kick in.  The economy is standing on banana peels, there is nothing sound or solid.  

 

When the cruise stock prices went to something close to zero, I was too stupid to buy (I prefer cautious to stupid😇), but I am not surprised when they went up.  There is zero chance I would buy any travel related stock today.  Call me a coward.

 

jc

There have already been interest rates touching 3% last week and receeded. Highest in the past 12 months. My model is already predicting inflation...how much is the question. Housing numbers for purchases were down 3% today when the numbers came out. They blamed higher interest rates and lack of inventory ..hard to predict where that will go.

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