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CDC denies cruise sector's request to lift US sailing restrictions


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39 minutes ago, Jeremiah1212 said:

 

Not really....efficacy is based on the individual, not the group. It means the individual has a 95% less chance of getting sick with COVID at each exposure, not 5% of the group would test positive. 

 

Yeah, so the real math isn't as straightforward, especially if you want to try to figure out partially vaccinated and differing timelines.

 

To vastly oversimplify, it would be something like:

 

Fully vaccinated people = ~3million

Unvaccinated = ~18.5 mil

 

So the 3 million are 95% less likely to get the disease, so act as basically 150,000 people. 

 

so proportion of vaccinated people getting covid would be (150,000)/(150,000+18.5m) = 0.008.

 

So since it's been averaging ~5k positive people a day, you'd expect 40 of those 5,000 per day to be vaccinated individuals. 

 

Please someone check my math.

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3 hours ago, HMR74 said:

this  issue of this thread is:

CDC denies cruise sector's request to lift US sailing restrictions

 

And as it stands now, the CDC is in no mood to approval sailing out of US ports. Which was my point when I posted the Directors comments. Regardless of which way we feel about it.

 

 

Yesterday the CDC reported that the vaccines were 90% effective. I have had my shots as has my wife. Sunday was the first time we had another couple over, they too were vaccinated and it was my wifes sister . First time in over a year.

 

So how does anybody know that the vaccines are 90% effective--if many of us have not been out yet.

 

Just asking.

 

I actually think that between the vaccine and people improving their immune systems with Vit D C , exercising and good diet practices, etc those folks should be in pretty good shape, but perfection will never be achieved.

 

I also believe the cruise lines are doing a pretty darn good job in planning for this, not perfect but pretty darn good.

 

I thought the ship we last sailed on in Dec 2019 was rather well maintained--That's now the past  and Its going to be much better.

 

There is only one way to know--got to have sailings.  And not just a few. and have to have ongoing studies, and if something does go wrong, does the cruise line and ship have the proper response.

 

That is about all they can do rather than permanently shutting down, which if you follow financial statements, there is a date for each cruise line out there where they just throw in the towel.

 

By the way, this is all very well publicized, and nobody is forcing anybody to go on a cruise if they think this is all crazy.

 

Except perhaps a spouse.

 

 

 

 

People see things like 90% effective and misunderstand what it means.  Typically, people think that if 100 people bathe in the virus, 10 of them will get it (i.e. 90% of people are protected).  

 

Trouble is, they don't try to infect people with the virus after vaccination to see how good it works.  Instead, they compare groups of people and see how many of them get covid before vs after being vaccinated.  This is a good and brief report on an effectiveness study:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm?s_cid=mm7013e3_w

 

What they did is watch roughly 4000 health care workers before and after vaccination.  They did nose swabs weekly to see who was/wasn't infected, and they did extra swabs when people had any symptoms.   

Pre-vaccination there were 161 positives, normalized to 1.38 infections per 1000 person-days.   

After dose 1, there were 8 positives, or 0.19/1000 person-days. 

After dose 2, there were only 3 positives, or 0.04/1000 person days

 

0.04/1.38 = 3% as many cases after vaccination versus before.  With statistics thrown in, that's where the "90% effectiveness" comes from.   

 

4000 people and only 3 tested positive.  But we don't know how many of them were exposed (thus the statistics and comparison).  

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26 minutes ago, Auntiemomo said:

My understanding of the vaccine was not to immunize you from catching the virus but help protect you from dying if you did caught the virus.  

Then you misunderstand the purpose of vaccines, which is to prevent disease. Unfortunately, not all vaccines are 100% effective in achieving that objective, but will reduce the impact on those who are vaccinated but still catch the disease.

 

This link is to one of many websites that can explain it:

 

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/how-do-vaccines-work

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30 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Folks see and hear what they want to see and hear.  We have vaccines with an efficacy rate that seem to fall in the 90-95% area (depending on which study you view).  This means that between 5 and 10% of vaccinated folks could very well contract COVID (although there is good data that the severity of the infection will likely be mild).   In Florida there are approximately 6 million who have been vaccinated so even if you use the lower 5% number one would expect 300,000 of vaccinated folks to test positive for COVID.   So "dozens" of folks testing positive is well within the expected outcome.  What does not often get mentioned is how many of those who have been fully vaccinated end up being hospitalized because of COVID and that number is so low it is not even discussed or shown in most stats.

 

Hank

Thanks, Hank. That's a helpful and informative response to my post #333. Fortunately, these forums have you and others of your ilk who inform, enlighten and educate the rest of us from a medical perspective. Much appreciated. 

 

I have to come at this Covid thing from strictly a layman's point of view, hoping to apply some logic and common sense (mine only) to what the science tells me. For all of us, medically inclined or not, those are necessary characteristics to employ in all circumstances.

 

I see and understand the stats. No matter how seemingly insignificant or expected, is there still not the possibility of something highly significant and unexpected? How long will this "something old is new again" scenario play out? I would not like to be the person(s) responsible for giving the universal okay to millions that it is now good to go time for once again sailing the oceans blue. That is a huge responsibility...HUGE! Once that decision is made (and it will have to be made eventually) the onus, good or bad, is on the decision maker(s). 

 

I try to understand the reasoning of the people whose shoes I do not walk in. Just because it is the direction I do not want to go does not mean it is not the right direction. And to those who berate, belittle and begrudge the medical folks and their wisdom, I say, in your lack of wisdom and preponderance of selfishness, may things work out in your best interests. 

 

 

  

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Central Florida here -- I had to take my husband to the ER a couple of weeks ago with what turned out to be bacterial gastroenteritis (confirmed by labs and CT scan).  We both had our second Moderna vaccines in early February, so we are "fully vaccinated."  The nurse who came in for labs was in full PPE, and she did the nasopharyngeal swab to test for Covid.  That test came back negative about 2 1/2 hours later, and the nurse and doctor wore regular masks after that. The doctor told me that she had been  "holding her breath" hoping that my husband was not one of the tiny percentage of fully vaccinated people who become infected.  My takeaway was that it is possible but highly unlikely that a fully vaccinated person will be infected.  Nevertheless, we are still masking in public, washing hands to the point of cracking, and cleaning and disinfecting surfaces. 

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1 hour ago, Spif Barwunkel said:

For those of you who feel that the CDC is much too guarded in it's approach to re-start cruising, here is a bit of information that I feel is quite pertinent.

 

Recently, central Florida has reported dozens of fully vaccinated persons are testing positive for the Corona virus. Needless to say, that would be dis-heartening for anyone, especially those who were injudicious enough to feel that they no longer were susceptible. 

 

Lot's of good news in the Covid world, no doubt. Lot's more to find out, as well. At some point in time we have to try something cruising. It seems that is going to happen over the next several months. At the same time, it's a cautionary tale should be told in order to compensate for the enthusiastic optimism of positivity. Is there a time limit for caution in the Covid world? If there is, let me know. In the meantime, I'm not setting my clock accordingly.  

 

Because they tested positive doesn't mean that they were ill with covid, nor does it mean they were contagious. It purely means that there was enough virus to detect.  

 

In the highlighted example in the story, it was a person who was tested weekly.  Why regularly test vaccinated people? Who knows.  We know she wasn't tested because she was ill, and the story mentions nothing about how she felt, nor does it mention the PCR ct cutoff used in the tests, or anything that would actually give additional context.

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3 minutes ago, Jazzbo said:

\ Nevertheless, we are still masking in public, washing hands to the point of cracking, and cleaning and disinfecting surfaces. 

That is our feeling.  The mask is an ounce or less of cloth or substitute worn, at most for most of us, less than an hour per day.  The washing and sanitizing takes a minimal amount of time and $.  Never understood the virulent (to coin a word) resistance to such measures.

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4 hours ago, Oceangoer2 said:

And so we should ALL be kept in the dark because some don't want to hear what they don't want to hear?

 

I never posted that! Look, the entire situation w/ CDC to the cruise community is a mess. Fain explained it the best. What I said is that we are expeiencing two different messages.  

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13 minutes ago, Goodtime Cruizin said:

 

I never posted that! Look, the entire situation w/ CDC to the cruise community is a mess. Fain explained it the best. What I said is that we are expeiencing two different messages.  

Fain is hardly an objective arbiter.

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3 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

I understand and recognize a somewhat more open approach to debate now (versus "normal times") on CC particularly where COVID and cruising intersect and at times that can be very valuable.

 

However, we need to report posts of those who are here only to be divisive and disruptive and who refuse to stick to discussions related to cruising. I think the mods are spread thin these days and those threads where there is a clear fire reported are going to be looked at first.

There are some posts here which definitely need to be monitored.  I've twigged to one poster in particular who seems to be a divisive 'provoker';  judging by their posts to just about every cruise line (and maybe all - didn't have time to look at all the posts), on whatever subject, and in bad spelling/grammar such as those from certain catfish countries.  I don't know how the moderators can look at these and/or remove them as they appear to be legitimate.  We can't think our cruise site wouldn't be affected by these when just about every social media site is.

 

And...on topic....   In saying "those threads where there is a clear fire reported are going to be looked at first."...... I find it hard to keep away from associated topics to cruising...one feeds the other, so guess I'm open to be flamed or reported and "looked at first".

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We still don't know how long immunity from vaccines will last and if/when boosters will be needed.  Current guesses (based on other coronaviruses) are from five months to two years.  The first wave of vaccines went to healthcare workers, first responders, and people in highly vulnerable demographics in the December-January timeframe and then opened up to other vulnerable populations over the January/February/March timeframe with many of the vaccines right now still going primarily to those with health conditions that make them vulnerable to the virus. 

 

January + 5 months = June.  So let's take potentially vulnerable people and put them together on ships in the June-August timeframe without knowing if immunity goes away?  Another example of how some people are not considering the actual risks.

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24 minutes ago, Spif Barwunkel said:

Thanks, Hank. That's a helpful and informative response to my post #333. Fortunately, these forums have you and others of your ilk who inform, enlighten and educate the rest of us from a medical perspective. Much appreciated. 

 

I have to come at this Covid thing from strictly a layman's point of view, hoping to apply some logic and common sense (mine only) to what the science tells me. For all of us, medically inclined or not, those are necessary characteristics to employ in all circumstances.

 

I see and understand the stats. No matter how seemingly insignificant or expected, is there still not the possibility of something highly significant and unexpected? How long will this "something old is new again" scenario play out? I would not like to be the person(s) responsible for giving the universal okay to millions that it is now good to go time for once again sailing the oceans blue. That is a huge responsibility...HUGE! Once that decision is made (and it will have to be made eventually) the onus, good or bad, is on the decision maker(s). 

 

I try to understand the reasoning of the people whose shoes I do not walk in. Just because it is the direction I do not want to go does not mean it is not the right direction. And to those who berate, belittle and begrudge the medical folks and their wisdom, I say, in your lack of wisdom and preponderance of selfishness, may things work out in your best interests. 

 

 

  

On the "logic and common sense" side of things, I find it's often good to stop and ask "What's the problem we're trying to solve?"   With covid, it's first and foremost people dying.  Vaccines prevent that nearly 100% of the time.  Then there are hospitalizations.  Again, vaccination prevents that nearly 100% of the time.  Two most significant issues are solved more completely than anyone had imagined.

 

If "old people" were naturally immune this whole time and didn't die from covid, would we still have a pandemic and restrictions?  Possibly, but nowhere near the restrictions in place today in all likelihood.   It'd be widespread enough to be a pandemic, though it's really a subjective definition.  It would be an illness that occasionally causes death at rates far less than influenza.  

 

But then, people still get pretty sick and have slow recoveries.  Frankly, that's why I get a flu shot every year and a big part of my justification for getting a covid jab.   Long term illnesses, quarantine, isolation, and trying to slow the spread are a nuisance beyond the initial "being sick".  With many of the "old people" becoming vaccinated, THIS is where we find ourselves.  

 

Ultimately, while vaccinated you have a very small chance may get a slight to moderate illness or maybe not even know that you were ill at all.  With THAT being the case, why are we concerned about spread among those who are vaccinated?   Of course, even with 'positives after vaccination' we don't know about transmission from those people, but there should be few enough of them that it doesn't matter once enough people are vaccinated because the chance of finding a new host to infect is very small. 

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5 minutes ago, Goodtime Cruizin said:

 

 Please understand that any forms of covid growing in any of our communities is not a good thing. And for all of us that are avid cruisers it is deterimental to our passion. We are living in crazy times for sure. The CDC determines whether we can go cruising says no because of covid. Yet we have another branch that can no longer handle the hoards that are crossing our southern border.  The signsls are mixed while the unknown numbers migrating to the metros of Houston, San Antonio, and Dallas/FtWorth is real. This can not be a good thing for any of us going forward unless we get them vaxed up. 

You must not forget about "Motel 46" that we the taxpayers will also be paying for.

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2 hours ago, Spif Barwunkel said:

For those of you who feel that the CDC is much too guarded in it's approach to re-start cruising, here is a bit of information that I feel is quite pertinent.

 

Recently, central Florida has reported dozens of fully vaccinated persons are testing positive for the Corona virus. Needless to say, that would be dis-heartening for anyone, especially those who were injudicious enough to feel that they no longer were susceptible. 

 

Lot's of good news in the Covid world, no doubt. Lot's more to find out, as well. At some point in time we have to try something cruising. It seems that is going to happen over the next several months. At the same time, it's a cautionary tale should be told in order to compensate for the enthusiastic optimism of positivity. Is there a time limit for caution in the Covid world? If there is, let me know. In the meantime, I'm not setting my clock accordingly.  

The problem is that disease incidence is still high enough that the odds are relatively high in the range between 1 in 100 to 1 in 400 (based upon nation wide case numbers so it will differ in a given area) that someone will encounter an infected individual. Since based upon real world data where Moderna and Pfizer reduce infection between 90% and 94% (depending upon the study).  If those that are vaccinated drop all protective measures and go about like they used to sooner or later they will encounter an infected person.  Then it comes down to the 6 to 10% or so that will get infected.

 

That is why we should continue with protections until the case numbers get low enough that the odds of encountering an infected individual is fairly low. That should only be a matter of a few months if everyone were to continue.  With the states dropping mandates and people dropping protective behavior - it will probably take a while longer.

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22 minutes ago, D C said:

On the "logic and common sense" side of things, I find it's often good to stop and ask "What's the problem we're trying to solve?"   With covid, it's first and foremost people dying.  Vaccines prevent that nearly 100% of the time.  Then there are hospitalizations.  Again, vaccination prevents that nearly 100% of the time.  Two most significant issues are solved more completely than anyone had imagined.

 

If "old people" were naturally immune this whole time and didn't die from covid, would we still have a pandemic and restrictions?  Possibly, but nowhere near the restrictions in place today in all likelihood.   It'd be widespread enough to be a pandemic, though it's really a subjective definition.  It would be an illness that occasionally causes death at rates far less than influenza.  

 

But then, people still get pretty sick and have slow recoveries.  Frankly, that's why I get a flu shot every year and a big part of my justification for getting a covid jab.   Long term illnesses, quarantine, isolation, and trying to slow the spread are a nuisance beyond the initial "being sick".  With many of the "old people" becoming vaccinated, THIS is where we find ourselves.  

 

Ultimately, while vaccinated you have a very small chance may get a slight to moderate illness or maybe not even know that you were ill at all.  With THAT being the case, why are we concerned about spread among those who are vaccinated?   Of course, even with 'positives after vaccination' we don't know about transmission from those people, but there should be few enough of them that it doesn't matter once enough people are vaccinated because the chance of finding a new host to infect is very small. 

Largely because

 

1. Every case is a potential for a vaccine resistant mutation.  If someone has partial protection but the virus can still infect them it makes a good environment for a more resistant strain.  Then if there is no protection between them and other vaccinated a resistant strain can break out and we are back to pre vaccine days very quickly

 

2. Not everyone can be vaccinated at this point - children, those that have medical conditions where it is contra-indicated.  As a an infected vaccinated individual can spread it to those that cannot be vaccinated at this time.  As in point one every case is a potential mutation source, especially with the number of mutations already circulating.

 

3. There is still a lot unknown about COVID at this time.  There is plenty of proof that with even mild or asymptomatic case long term damage can occur (often hidden until found by appropriate diagnostics) including damage to heart, lungs, kidneys, etc. Impacts that can effect both longevity and quality of life.  At this stage it is not known if mild cases occurring in vaccinated individuals will show this same damage. 

 

With the current incidence rate the vaccine should be the protection of last resort.  Something to fall back on when other protective measures fail because if the other measures are dropped the odds of encountering an infected individual is still too high.  Once the incidence rate is lower, and the odds of encountering an infected individual is low, then the measures can be dropped and vaccine moves forward to become the primary protective measure.

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6 minutes ago, cltnccruisers said:

After watching Dir Walensky and Pres Biden's recent statements I've given up any hope of cruising out of the US through 2022.  Time to start planning some landside vacations.  First is a golf trip to Myrtle Beach next month.  

My state of CO had some good news today. We are starting 16 and up this Friday for vaccinations.

Our Dem Gov. Polis stated this per the AP:  With the updated distribution, Polis said that the state could look forward to a “fairly normal summer” due to widespread immunity from vaccines.

 

If CO can do it with the vaccinated, surely a cruise line that fully vaccinates everyone including crew, should be able to do it.

 

When you hit your golfball at high altitude, it travels further. Welcome!

Edited by TrulyBlonde
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2 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

My state of CO had some good news today. We are starting 16 and up this Friday for vaccinations.

Our Dem Gov. Polis stated this per the AP:  With the updated distribution, Polis said that the state could look forward to a “fairly normal summer” due to widespread immunity from vaccines.

 

If CO can do it with the vaccinated, surely a cruise line that fully vaccinates everyone including crew, should be able to do it.

 

When you hit your golfball at high altitude, it travels further. Welcome!

SC has done the same and it's a much shorter drive.  Someday, maybe.

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1 hour ago, Fouremco said:

Then you misunderstand the purpose of vaccines, which is to prevent disease. Unfortunately, not all vaccines are 100% effective in achieving that objective, but will reduce the impact on those who are vaccinated but still catch the disease.

 

This link is to one of many websites that can explain it:

 

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/how-do-vaccines-work

That's basically what I said.  The vaccine will not immunize you like the polio or the small pox, etc.  You are still are susceptible to catch covid after the vaccine -- just limited affects if one was not vaccinated. 

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4 minutes ago, Auntiemomo said:

That's basically what I said.  The vaccine will not immunize you like the polio or the small pox, etc.  You are still are susceptible to catch covid after the vaccine -- just limited affects if one was not vaccinated. 

Always thought 'mitigation' was a good term for this sort of thing.  But I used it this past Sunday and got several deer in headlights looks so maybe not.

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3 minutes ago, Auntiemomo said:

That's basically what I said.  The vaccine will not immunize you like the polio or the small pox, etc.  You are still are susceptible to catch covid after the vaccine -- just limited affects if one was not vaccinated. 

 

You clearly have no understanding of immunology. That's probably true of most of the population, but most of them don't continue to make these statement not supported by fact. The SARS-CoV-2 vaccine does exactly the same thing as polio or smallpox. We just know after 50+ years that they reduce (or in the case of smallpox, reduced as the virus no longer exists in nature) viral shedding to the point that there was no transmission. Smallpox doesn't have an asymptomatic phase with shedding, and polio is a much more complicated disease process.

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2 hours ago, Spif Barwunkel said:

Thanks, Hank. That's a helpful and informative response to my post #333. Fortunately, these forums have you and others of your ilk who inform, enlighten and educate the rest of us from a medical perspective. Much appreciated. 

 

I have to come at this Covid thing from strictly a layman's point of view, hoping to apply some logic and common sense (mine only) to what the science tells me. For all of us, medically inclined or not, those are necessary characteristics to employ in all circumstances.

 

I see and understand the stats. No matter how seemingly insignificant or expected, is there still not the possibility of something highly significant and unexpected? How long will this "something old is new again" scenario play out? I would not like to be the person(s) responsible for giving the universal okay to millions that it is now good to go time for once again sailing the oceans blue. That is a huge responsibility...HUGE! Once that decision is made (and it will have to be made eventually) the onus, good or bad, is on the decision maker(s). 

 

I try to understand the reasoning of the people whose shoes I do not walk in. Just because it is the direction I do not want to go does not mean it is not the right direction. And to those who berate, belittle and begrudge the medical folks and their wisdom, I say, in your lack of wisdom and preponderance of selfishness, may things work out in your best interests. 

 

 

  

I have a lot of fun blogging here, but it is the nature of my past career and education that I like to focus on statistics, facts, common sense, and solutions.  Put all that together and use some critical thinking (no longer taught in our education system) and one can draw some conclusions (no longer allowed in our society).  So, lets cut to the COVID chase.  In the USA we now have over 84 million (it might be close to 90 by now) that have had at least one COVID vaccine shot.  We also have 10s of millions who have recovered from COVID and have natural immunity.  We are currently putting over 22 million shots a week into arms.  And lastly, we know all three vaccines are very effective in both keeping the recipient from getting sick or spreading COVID to others.   Furthermore, we have probably vaccinated over 75% of the highest risk folks.  And despite some comments to the contrary, the current vaccines apparently work well against all the known variants (although the efficacy against some is somewhat lower).  

 

So put all this together and it sounds to me like we have a lot of reason to be optimistic (at least in terms of COVID in the USA and some other countries like the UK).  I was a very pessimistic guy a year ago (and posted that feeling) when some thought COVID would be a nothing or be over in a few weeks/months.   My pessimism was vindicated by the actual circumstances (DW calls it the Zombie Apocalypse) but thanks to a handful of brilliant scientists, a President who had the forethought to fast track vaccine efforts, a new President who has continued to push vaccine programs, and an awful lot of hard working healthcare workers we are coming out of this COVID nightmare.  

 

Those that choose to be negative are entitled to that opinion and should not be ignored.  But the facts seem to say otherwise.  Just consider that by the end of April over 180 million shots will be in the arms of folks in our country.  Add to that those with natural immunity who have not received vaccinations and most of our population who wants vaccinated will have been able to get at least one shot (all they need if using the J&J vaccine).   Look at our total population of folks over the age of 16 and you can easily see that COVID is going to soon start running out of adult bodies to infect.  I do not subscribe to the "herd immunity" moniker (another topic) but we are quickly reaching a point where COVID will be under control, death rates will fall to a very low level, and serious COVID illness will much less of a problem and primarily confined to those who prefer to take their chances with the disease.

 

Hank

 

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