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CDC denies cruise sector's request to lift US sailing restrictions


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While I'm sure the virus origin is important to immunologists and  virologists it doesn't seem to me that it makes a great deal of difference to most people. I doubt the source will make any difference to the CDC sail / no sail decisions. We are still in a fight and should be concentrating on achieving a positive outcome so that we can get back to discussing chair hogs, passports, and dining room formal wear.

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11 hours ago, nocl said:

Actually what I said was that while it has dropped from the big holiday peak, it has plateaued and has even has up ward trend.

 

The 7 day moving average hit its minimum value at 55,651 on March 14, it has now risen to  58,866

 

So over the last 11 days it has risen and is back to the same point it was at March 9th.

I follow our state level data very carefully and national data more at a distance. With all respect to JHU, their state level data does not seem to be corrected for fluctuations (if the state dumps in a backlog of testing or deaths from months prior, for example), so the week over week data can be a little misleading for state data.

Having said that, there is no evidence of an exponential increase in positive tests in my state, and that is what you would look for as a spike - doesn’t mean we won’t see it next week, just not yet.

my opinion is that every time something opens - whether it’s schools or restaurants or increased capacity in a business or whatever - we have seen small bumps in case numbers, sometimes simply because a group of people becomes subject to testing when they weren’t being tested before (definitely this with schools).

 I think that many of the states seeing increases are having those opening bumps, and those may well even out and/or never take off given people are being vaccinated.

States like Florida, Georgia and Mississippi are very unlikely (in my opinion) to see big spikes because people are either careful and vaccinated or they’ve already had it - spring break aside.

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

Well, former CDC director was discussing with Gupta this morning on CNN, so could possibly be Fake News 😉  and who trusts The Who? Not me.

Your politics are showing! Redfield actually said that "That was his opinion". It is only is opinion and he did not cite any facts to support it. His statement is part of a documentary interview and everyone can see it for themselves and form their own opinion.

To paraphrase another poster :Where it started is not really important to the resumption of cruising.

Edited by Orator
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11 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

I follow our state level data very carefully and national data more at a distance. With all respect to JHU, their state level data does not seem to be corrected for fluctuations (if the state dumps in a backlog of testing or deaths from months prior, for example), so the week over week data can be a little misleading for state data.

Having said that, there is no evidence of an exponential increase in positive tests in my state, and that is what you would look for as a spike - doesn’t mean we won’t see it next week, just not yet.

my opinion is that every time something opens - whether it’s schools or restaurants or increased capacity in a business or whatever - we have seen small bumps in case numbers, sometimes simply because a group of people becomes subject to testing when they weren’t being tested before (definitely this with schools).

 I think that many of the states seeing increases are having those opening bumps, and those may well even out and/or never take off given people are being vaccinated.

States like Florida, Georgia and Mississippi are very unlikely (in my opinion) to see big spikes because people are either careful and vaccinated or they’ve already had it - spring break aside.

What I am seeing in the moving averages over the country is a bottoming, following by an upward slope.  The small bumps cause by reporting delays should be smoothed out in the moving averages.

I am seeing a small but steady upward trend since the bottom on March 14.  It appears to be accelerating though not by a large degree over the past couple of days.

 

The point is that there is plenty of reason for the CDC to remain concerned at this time.  The outbreak is not yet over.

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28 minutes ago, Orator said:

Your politics are showing! Redfield actually said that "That was his opinion". It is only is opinion and he did not cite any facts to support it. His statement is part of a documentary interview and everyone can see it for themselves and form their own opinion.

To paraphrase another poster :Where it started is not really important to the resumption of cruising.

So it sounds like you do not trust former CDC Redfield? Yes, it was his opinion and he also said that the science will figure it out. Let's wait and see what happens 😉  Any scientists on here who dispute what Redfield thinks about it?

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50 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

I follow our state level data very carefully and national data more at a distance. With all respect to JHU, their state level data does not seem to be corrected for fluctuations (if the state dumps in a backlog of testing or deaths from months prior, for example), so the week over week data can be a little misleading for state data.

Having said that, there is no evidence of an exponential increase in positive tests in my state, and that is what you would look for as a spike - doesn’t mean we won’t see it next week, just not yet.

my opinion is that every time something opens - whether it’s schools or restaurants or increased capacity in a business or whatever - we have seen small bumps in case numbers, sometimes simply because a group of people becomes subject to testing when they weren’t being tested before (definitely this with schools).

 I think that many of the states seeing increases are having those opening bumps, and those may well even out and/or never take off given people are being vaccinated.

States like Florida, Georgia and Mississippi are very unlikely (in my opinion) to see big spikes because people are either careful and vaccinated or they’ve already had it - spring break aside.

I am looking forward to the day (soon?) where we are not so much paying attention to positive Covid tests and the number of tests being done.  As the vaccinated become a higher percentage of the population, along with the very large number of previous infections, then positive COVID tests are much less meaningful.  Yes they still show the virus is out there.  The number of daily tests will trend down (already doing this).  The media (and us as well) have been absolutely conditioned to look at positive test numbers for now over a year.  We need to transition our thinking to the lagging indicators of hospitalizations and deaths.  These are the indicators of vaccine effectiveness, not positive tests alone.

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13 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

So it sounds like you do not trust former CDC Redfield? Yes, it was his opinion and he also said that the science will figure it out. Let's wait and see what happens 😉  Any scientists on here who dispute what Redfield thinks about it?

Fauci for one! The US Intel agencies under the previous administration concluded that the virus was not produced in a laboratory. The same intel agency reported today following the Redfield comment that they stick by the conclusion that the virus was not produced in a lab. Don't think I'll convince you, but I just want the record to include all the facts. 

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1 hour ago, TrulyBlonde said:

Well, former CDC director was discussing with Gupta this morning on CNN, so could possibly be Fake News 😉  and who trusts The Who? Not me.

 

A favorite band of mine. But I don't typically trust musician pontifications on medical matters.

 

31 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

So it sounds like you do not trust former CDC Redfield? Yes, it was his opinion and he also said that the science will figure it out. Let's wait and see what happens 😉  Any scientists on here who dispute what Redfield thinks about it?

 

Has nothing to do with trust or lack there of. He expressed an opinion. He underlined the fact that it was a personal opinion and that he had no data to support the view.

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

So it sounds like you do not trust former CDC Redfield? Yes, it was his opinion and he also said that the science will figure it out. Let's wait and see what happens 😉  Any scientists on here who dispute what Redfield thinks about it?

The origin of the virus has been subject to a lot of scientific study including pretty sophisticated bioinformatics, genetic tracing, and all of the genetic tools and sequencing tools and comparison to other human and animal coronaviruses.  It seems that almost everybody believes it is animal origin (horseshoe bats?) but still hard to determine exactly where and when.  It cannot be determined with any certainty whether it came from an animal coronavirus in the wild or one that escaped from a lab.  Just that it has an animal origin.   But if it came from a lab it was not likely derived synthetically in a lab.  It might have escaped from a lab.  But that would be extremely hard to imagine given the sophisticated containment barriers and procedures in place (in Wuhan or elsewhere).

 

More info:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10311-020-01151-1

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0771-4

Edited by TeeRick
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6 minutes ago, broberts said:

 

A favorite band of mine. But I don't typically trust musician pontifications on medical matters.

 

 

 

A secure, intelligent,  and successful woman enjoys giving herself a screen name that drives others crazy. It is part of the fun of being a blonde. 

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3 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

The origin of the virus has been subject to a lot of scientific study including pretty sophisticated bioinformatics, genetic tracing, and all of the genetic tools and sequencing tools and comparison to other human and animal coronaviruses.  It seems that almost everybody believes it is animal origin (bats?) but still hard to determine exactly where and when.  It cannot be determined with any certainty whether it came from an animal coronavirus in the wild or one that escaped from a lab.  Just that it has an animal origin.   But if it came from a lab it was not likely derived synthetically in a lab.  It might have escaped from a lab.  But that would be extremely hard to imagine given the sophisticated containment barriers and procedures in place (in Wuhan or elsewhere).

 

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10311-020-01151-1

Thanks for your input. Dr. Redfield said that the science will figure it out. Let's have patience and wait and see how this turns out. 

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5 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

A secure, intelligent,  and successful woman enjoys giving herself a screen name that drives others crazy. It is part of the fun of being a blonde. 

Another fun blonde was Phyllis Diller, could always count on that lady for a good laugh.

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, Orator said:

Fauci for one! The US Intel agencies under the previous administration concluded that the virus was not produced in a laboratory. The same intel agency reported today following the Redfield comment that they stick by the conclusion that the virus was not produced in a lab. Don't think I'll convince you, but I just want the record to include all the facts. 

Just to be totally clear  

 

Produced in a laboratory means not genetically modified.  That does not mean that could not have been a virus, collected in a lab for study or while in the lab run though a series of experiments designed to encourage natural mutation.

 

There is some interesting items concerning that lab and the appearance of COVID19.

 

1. There were concerns expressed over the practices in that lab concerning biosecurity in 2018.

2. There was an active research program run by EcoHealth Alliance that was working on Corona Viruses in bats. Those viruses include at least 50 in the same class as SARS and COVID19.

3. The lab published papers prior to 2019 describing how they were able to get bat originated Corona virus that did not originally use the ACE2 receptor to utilize the ACE2 receptor by natural mutation.  This followed a paper in 2013 that discussed identifying a strain of Corona virus in bats that was capable of using the ACE2 receptor. This is interesting because  the ACE2 receptor is how COVID attacks people.

 

So there are some interesting coincidences.

 

WHO said that it was unlikely to have been a lab release, but they did not do a full audit and comparison of all of the viruses being studied.  Their logic for why it was unlikely was pretty much along the lines that it was since escapes from those types of facilities are rare it was unlikely that this virus escaped. Their visit which had been delayed for a year was unable to come up with any other source during their search which was a joint WHO/Chinese search team.

 

This could have been put to bed if the Chinese had allowed a full audit of the lab and DNA analysis of all of the viruses being studied, but they refused to do so, and continue to do to this date.  The closest that one has gotten to such an audit was a commit from the director of the lab saying that it did not match any of the ones being studied, but without confirmation.

 

That is why at this time the source is still uncertain and the possibility still remains open with some thought on either side of the debate.

Edited by nocl
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On 3/24/2021 at 4:59 PM, johnbob7 said:

I believe this is the issue. The CDC is running ragged trying to manage pandemic issues for 350 million Americans and has little time to spare for a relatively small group of special interest people aka cruisers. Not sure it is reasonable to expect them to drop everything to facilitate, what, 50,000 or 100,000 of us to get to cruise when they are still battling a very active pandemic for the entire nation. 
 

I want to cruise as much as the rest of you, but I am understanding of where we fit in the grand scheme.

 

BobJ

I think it is reasonable for them to do what they can do since they are the government agency prohibiting them from running an industry/their business in the US.  I would also think there are a lot of people out of work or not working the job they wanted to because of this moratorium  It is not just the direct employees of the cruise lines either.  Then too, there are the special interest people.

 

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As of next Monday - Florida is open for all age vaccination. Maybe new Biden's CDC don't like DeSantis.

I am very disappointed in CDC decision, but health is most important. Hope my December cruise still will go.

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1 hour ago, Orator said:

Fauci for one! The US Intel agencies under the previous administration concluded that the virus was not produced in a laboratory. The same intel agency reported today following the Redfield comment that they stick by the conclusion that the virus was not produced in a lab. Don't think I'll convince you, but I just want the record to include all the facts. 

You trust our intel agencies? really?

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, TrulyBlonde said:

Well, former CDC director was discussing with Gupta this morning on CNN, so could possibly be Fake News 😉  and who trusts The Who? Not me.

I trust the  WHO about as much as Fauci and CNN which is 0 for all 3.

Edited by terrydtx
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1 minute ago, ISABELLA said:

You trust our intel agencies? really?

Well....

we can play the game of “whose fault was this” and “can you trust” all day. In the end, doesn’t matter as the basic fact is we have a pandemic and what are we doing and what can we be doing to mitigate it as quickly as possible.

 

if you don’t want to trust the government intel agencies, that’s fine. I feel they have more access to data and more experienced analysts to interpret the info then, say, Fox News or Qanon. You can question pretty much anything, but no other theory has any actual facts supporting it, just suspicions. At the end of the day, all that matters is what are WE going to do to help us all recover from the pandemic.

 

And the point of this thread was more about why isn’t the CDC doing more to help the cruise industry restart. 
 

BobJ

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4 hours ago, HxFx said:

At this point we don't have enough vaccines for those that want it. I'm on two lists myself. It will be a while before we know ground truth on vaccinations.

If you are on two lists and use one appointment please cancel the other so someone else can use it.  That has been something of a problem around here.  I have scheduled my wife an myself back in January through our healthcare octopus but we weren't able to get anything before end of March.   When Walgreen's came online for scheduling on Feb 11 it took only 15 minutes to setup accounts and schedule both of us for shots on Feb 12.  We had our second shots on March 12.

 

Canceling our appointments with the octopus was difficult and time consuming but it's the right thing to do. 

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, johnbob7 said:

Well....

we can play the game of “whose fault was this” and “can you trust” all day. In the end, doesn’t matter as the basic fact is we have a pandemic and what are we doing and what can we be doing to mitigate it as quickly as possible.

 

if you don’t want to trust the government intel agencies, that’s fine. I feel they have more access to data and more experienced analysts to interpret the info then, say, Fox News or Qanon. You can question pretty much anything, but no other theory has any actual facts supporting it, just suspicions. At the end of the day, all that matters is what are WE going to do to help us all recover from the pandemic.

 

And the point of this thread was more about why isn’t the CDC doing more to help the cruise industry restart. 
 

BobJ

Well said BobJ!!  I want to cruise very badly, like most on CC.  CDC exists for a reason, to do the best they can with the information and facts they learn and are provided to them.  Cruise industry has had ONE FULL YEAR to at a minimum present a plan.  They have complained and complained we don't know what they want from us.  Present a darn plan at least as a starting point for review and discussion.  They did not and they own it.

Edited by LGW59
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3 minutes ago, cltnccruisers said:

If you are on two lists and use one appointment please cancel the other so someone else can use it. 

I'm not even allowed to make an appointment at this point. I only intend to make one appointment.

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1 minute ago, HxFx said:

I'm not even allowed to make an appointment at this point. I only intend to make one appointment.

You said you were on two lists - thought you meant you had two appointments.  If you are just on two waiting lists to make an appointment, you might want to give Walgreen's a shot (pun intended).  They were extremely efficient through the entire process.   

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7 minutes ago, cltnccruisers said:

You said you were on two lists - thought you meant you had two appointments.  If you are just on two waiting lists to make an appointment, you might want to give Walgreen's a shot (pun intended).  They were extremely efficient through the entire process.   

Sorry for the confusion. I am on Virginia's list but cannot make an appointment anywhere until they open it up to my group. They are at 65+ and essential workers now. After those are done I believe it's a free for all, no more age tiers. We have to wait until we get a link to make an appointment. I signed up because the earlier you do that, the higher priority you have when they start contacting your group. The pharmacies won't make an appointment unless you are eligible within Virginia's priorities.

 

The other list I am on is for Veterans. They are doing theirs in a similar manner. I'll see who contacts me first!

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18 minutes ago, HxFx said:

Sorry for the confusion. I am on Virginia's list but cannot make an appointment anywhere until they open it up to my group. They are at 65+ and essential workers now. After those are done I believe it's a free for all, no more age tiers. We have to wait until we get a link to make an appointment. I signed up because the earlier you do that, the higher priority you have when they start contacting your group. The pharmacies won't make an appointment unless you are eligible within Virginia's priorities.

 

The other list I am on is for Veterans. They are doing theirs in a similar manner. I'll see who contacts me first!

Understood.  My brother was vaccinated through the VA in Ohio.  He gets a lot of things done there and never had a bad thing to say about them.  I was stationed at Ft Myer and Ft McNair in your neck of the woods - interesting place, DC.   Good luck.

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