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CDC denies cruise sector's request to lift US sailing restrictions


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6 hours ago, c-boy said:

it is my sincere hope that the CDC is taking notes on the ongoing travel and cruise ship activities in the Med. 

From what I have read MSC appears to be working with the CDC to some degree and apparently has submitted its protocols and results of health monitoring from its European cruises.

 

I CDC is almost certainly talking with its counterparts in the EU.  However, the major cruise companies do not seem to be doing anything to comply with the CDC requirements.  Only requests that the CDC drop the CSO.  General complaints that the CSO is burdensome.  But no signs of any attempts to actually negotiate port agreements or to submit details plans for simulation cruises once those agreements are done.

 

With a regulatory authority they provide the requirements, and if requested by regulated industry provide guidance documents, but it is up to the regulated industry to come back with their plan for how they plan to meet the requirements.

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6 hours ago, c-boy said:

it is my sincere hope that the CDC is taking notes on the ongoing travel and cruise ship activities in the Med. 

 

The CDC has 10k employees and an operational budget of billions. No doubt, they have an eye on a great many things. 

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8 hours ago, scottca075 said:

 

I come by my cynicism honestly in reading these forums and others.

 

Lawsuits take time, I think the hope is for an injunction based on their likeliness to prevail at trial.

 

I would read Kimberly Strassel's opinion piece in the WSJ yesterday. Between that and the reluctance of CDC and NIAID people refusing to answer direct questions in Congressional testimony about what their metrics are for reopening things like cruising tells me the continuing restrictions aren't really about the spread of the virus anymore.

 

U.S. airlines carried 26.5 million passengers in February 2021 with no apparent problems, but there is no cruising?

 

It is well past the time for the CDC to present a clear, concise timetable and metrics.

 

 

I am sure you are aware there is a big difference between the cabin of an airplane and a cruise ship.....apples to oranges to bananas......

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8 minutes ago, PrincessLuver said:

am sure you are aware there is a big difference between the cabin of an airplane and a cruise ship.....apples to oranges to bananas....

Yes there is and I would much rather be on a cruise ship that I can keep my personal distance and have fresh air than be sandwiched in between other people less than 18 inches apart!  Especially if you fly overseas and in a airplane for 8 hrs with close contact.

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10 hours ago, scottca075 said:

 

U.S. airlines carried 26.5 million passengers in February 2021 with no apparent problems, but there is no cruising?

 

 

 

I am not sure we actually know that none of those 26.5 million passengers contracted the virus on a plane or in an airport.

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6 hours ago, nocl said:

CDC is almost certainly talking with its counterparts in the EU.  However, the major cruise companies do not seem to be doing anything to comply with the CDC requirements.  Only requests that the CDC drop the CSO.  General complaints that the CSO is burdensome.  But no signs of any attempts to actually negotiate port agreements or to submit details plans for simulation cruises once those agreements are done.

 

With a regulatory authority they provide the requirements, and if requested by regulated industry provide guidance documents, but it is up to the regulated industry to come back with their plan for how they plan to meet the requirements.

 

Have you READ the CSO? The Technical Instructions? They are absurd. In what context and what science are they based upon? If I didn't know better, I'd say it is petty bureaucrats on a power trip.

 

6 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

The CDC has 10k employees and an operational budget of billions. No doubt, they have an eye on a great many things. 

 

Then you'd think they'd be able to answer questions from Congresspeople on what their metrics are; what is considered "herd immunity"; what their timeline is. What is that staff doing? They were clearly unprepared to handle a pandemic.

 

5 hours ago, PrincessLuver said:

I am sure you are aware there is a big difference between the cabin of an airplane and a cruise ship.....apples to oranges to bananas......

 

Perhaps you missed the number, 26,500,000 people. I bet March will be over 40,000,000.

 

I am far closer to my fellow passengers on a plane than I am on a cruise ship and for a longer period of time.

 

Maybe you prefer the 400,000 passengers who've cruised in the Med, South Pacific and Asia with no major problems as an example of why we should be opening U.S. ports sooner.

 

3 hours ago, caribill said:

I am not sure we actually know that none of those 26.5 million passengers contracted the virus on a plane or in an airport.

 

We know there have not been any super spreader events related to air travel.

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too bad for cruise lovers;  who knows when the CDC will start to get their act together and come up with a return to sail order.  We will wait and see.  I  say Dec/Jan before they allow ships to sail from a US port.  

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8 hours ago, scottca075 said:

We know there have not been any super spreader events related to air travel.

 

Wrong. Until masks became mandatory, every flight was a potential superspreader event. That's why the CDC recommended masks in early April...

 

https://www.cleveland.com/coronavirus/2020/09/long-flights-can-be-superspreader-events-airport-screenings-for-coronavirus-not-always-effective-trio-of-recent-studies-say.html

 

3 hours ago, AF-1 said:

 I  say Dec/Jan before they allow ships to sail from a US port.  

 

 

That would be in line with the Canadian ban on cruising... to February 2022!

 

Don't waste your life obsessing about the CDC. Be positive. Live your life.

 

On Tuesday I was over at Iona Island. Discovered a group of 500 snow geese, on its way north. There was a Dark Adult in that flock. Among other late travelers were Ring-necked duck, Northern Shovelers, and Green-wing Teals. Glad to see a few pairs of breeding Tree Swallows.

 

This was a good day.

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2 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

Wrong. Until masks became mandatory, every flight was a potential superspreader event. That's why the CDC recommended masks in early April...

 

THAT is wrong. The article you linked kept saying "can be" and "probably". Even at that, the events were not "super-spreaders", they talked about very small numbers.

 

BUT, that isn't even what is being discussed. it is the over 26,000,000 passengers transported domestically in the U.S. in February 2021 with no serious outbreaks.

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6 minutes ago, voljeep said:

and 'exactly' how could that even be quantified ???

 

The CDC does contract tracing and when a pattern appears, they put out notices and/or contact those exposed.

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On 4/16/2021 at 7:00 PM, HappyInVan said:

 

The CDC has 10k employees and an operational budget of billions. No doubt, they have an eye on a great many things. 

Ohh those numbers are reassuring to be sure...

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15 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Definitely, some of them might actually have a doctorate in medicine or science! 👍

 

But isn't being a poster on CC more prestigious and credible than those meaningless little degrees?????

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2 hours ago, PrincessLuver said:

But isn't being a poster on CC more prestigious and credible than those meaningless little degrees?????

Only if you combine it with staying at least one night in a Holiday Inn before catching your flight to the cruise port.

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58 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

Only if you combine it with staying at least one night in a Holiday Inn before catching your flight to the cruise port.

 

Not just any Holiday Inn. Must be a Holiday Inn Express.

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Posted (edited)
On 4/16/2021 at 11:14 PM, scottca075 said:

 

Have you READ the CSO? The Technical Instructions? They are absurd. In what context and what science are they based upon? If I didn't know better, I'd say it is petty bureaucrats on a power trip.

 

 

Then you'd think they'd be able to answer questions from Congresspeople on what their metrics are; what is considered "herd immunity"; what their timeline is. What is that staff doing? They were clearly unprepared to handle a pandemic.

 

 

Perhaps you missed the number, 26,500,000 people. I bet March will be over 40,000,000.

 

I am far closer to my fellow passengers on a plane than I am on a cruise ship and for a longer period of time.

 

Maybe you prefer the 400,000 passengers who've cruised in the Med, South Pacific and Asia with no major problems as an example of why we should be opening U.S. ports sooner.

 

 

We know there have not been any super spreader events related to air travel.

I have certainly read all of the documents from the initial no sail order to the most recently released technical document.

 

How about if you post some of the sections that you consider to be absurd.

 

By the way would you also consider the CDC's VSP program to be absurd?  It came about after a rash of issues with GI illnesses on board ships.  I expect that it will be expanded to make sure there is not a repeat of last spring. 

Edited by nocl
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13 minutes ago, HMR74 said:

two things--i said we have to consider and you said you doubt, and the reality is nobody knows, we are both speculating.

 

Second, your data  for cases.

 

We have to first adjust for population. And that's the cases per million that should be the metric.

 

Then we have to be wary of poor test results  or when the Threshhold rate is different  in each country, eg, Singapore I believe used a 35 Threshold and the US was 40, resulting in more cases  in US. just due to that .

 

You all have heard the joke about a small company that was hiring an accountant?

The owner is doing the interviews, and asks the first applicants how much is 2+2 and the applicants answer 4.

 

One applicant asked back "how much do you want it to be", and was hired immediately.

 

 

 

how about rates per test ?

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, voljeep said:

how about rates per test ?

if you want to use good metrics to make critical decisions you would have to sort out false positives and negatives, and even duplicate positives and negatives. Actually, do they count negatives?  Or just focus on positives. Its loosy goosey, on the scores to just say positive and negative.

 

Take weight for example, there are 3 or 4 levels of obesity, level one is just a little bit not to worry but level 4 you are in deep doo doo.

 

When my Dr told me 4 years ago to start taking Vit D supplements , I did but he still said I was i the desired range to start with, no no urgency, but it would be nice, the same way he said it would be nice if I lost 5 pounds.

 

That's why annual physicals are important so you have your own baselines that the DR can easily compare. Or retest if necessary.

So on the covid test, if you get a 40 reading in the States , you are a positive, but the same reading in Singapore would be a negative and back in January some agency said 32 is the real threshold and if you are 32 you  on the bubble. It should not be  bad for you but it could.

 

You do not want to be in the single digits.

 

But we are making big decisions on whats probably faulty metrics. We just do not know how faulty. Perhaps the CDC knows, because while the public is not routinely told their actual score, somebody has to be getting them and shame on the CDC if its getting the actual scores and not using them correctly. That's the errors of omission we do not get to see. And if I was able to tell the CDC what to do I'd tell them to publish a chart of scores (it could be there in its website somewhere) .

And you may have noticed that I look at this from a management perspective. Sometimes people in the trenches get too close to the data they see and need someone to set them straight.

 

Might we need independent peer review of certain govt agencies? Some oversight to make sure their processes  and thinking and conclusions are correct on this rather important stuff

 

 

 

The big 3 cruise lines stocks are down almost 5% in todays trading. Still at lofty prices. So some investors are concerned about this. 

I do not know about others here but I have zero influence on the outcome and thus I can only react to whats in the best interest of me and family.

 

 

 

Edited by HMR74
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32 minutes ago, HMR74 said:

So on the covid test, if you get a 40 reading in the States , you are a positive, but the same reading in Singapore would be a negative and back in January some agency said 32 is the real threshold and if you are 32 you  on the bubble.

If i recall in an article on the Testing threshold used for Covid, the scientist/ designer of the test said that the threshold should never exceed 32 cycles.   This is another article discussing high cycle errors:  Coronavirus tests are extremely sensitive. (That could be a problem, experts say.) (advisory.com)

 

Here is some heavy reading on the testing:  COVID-19 Ct values_YNHH Aug. 2020 abbrev (yale.edu)

 

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Hi all:

 

Picked this up from the Oceania Board:

 

Yesterday The US. Dept. of State issued a do not travel warning.  Since most countries are listed as RED, they said not to travel internationally.  The list keeps increasing red level 4 countries.  This includes business travel.  How will this affect cruising?

_________________________________________

At this time, I would agree -- not a good time to travel anywhere until the dust settles and we see cases going in the other direction. Cases are rising all around the world (take a look that the CNN story today on India, as an example) -- IMHO -not worth taking a chance on your life. Even though we may be vaccinated - crew members, port personnel, excursion personnel in many foreign countries are probably not at this time.

 

Hope to see you all soon -- 🛳️😊  

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