CDC Ruining Cruising in the US

[clo]

3 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

Axios had it and read it in many other places. What percentage of Covid positive is OK with you coming over our Border?

• But the positivity rate has been higher — about 10% — at the Carrizo Springs shelter in Texas, opened last month as the first overflow shelter to be used by the Biden administration.

As many as need asylum. I thought I saw that they were being tested upon being picked up. No?

[TrulyBlonde]

Just now, clo said:

As many as need asylum. I thought I saw that they were being tested upon being picked up. No?

You did not answer my question. What positivity rate is OK with you?

[1985rz1]

25 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

Axios had it and read it in many other places. What percentage of Covid positive is OK with you coming over our Border?

• But the positivity rate has been higher — about 10% — at the Carrizo Springs shelter in Texas, opened last month as the first overflow shelter to be used by the Biden administration.

For reference, today's reported positivity rate in Arizona is 10.9%.  (Not a shelter rate, but the general population)  In Maricopa County, the home of Phoenix, it's 11.3%.

 

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

Edited March 30, 2021 by 1985rz1

[TrulyBlonde]

14 minutes ago, 1985rz1 said:

For reference, today's reported positivity rate in Arizona is 10.9%.  (Not a shelter rate, but the general population)  In Maricopa County, the home of Phoenix, it's 11.3%.

 

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

It looks like you agree with me. CDC Director should have said we need to shut down the S. Border to protect all of us, especially with the high positivity rate. Can't have it both ways.

[clo]

32 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

You did not answer my question. What positivity rate is OK with you?

No. I did.

 

33 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

As many as need asylum.

My reply not yours. Obviously.

[1985rz1]

1 minute ago, TrulyBlonde said:

It looks like you agree with me. CDC Director should have said we need to shut down the S. Border to protect all of us, especially with the high positivity rate. Can't have it both ways.

I'm neither agreeing or disagreeing with you.  I am simply providing data as context.  

Please don't assign any interpretation of my post.  I resent trying to twist a simple data post to support your position.

 

But since you asked, I don't agree with you. The higher positivity rate, in my opinion, has nothing to do with the border issue.  It's a result, in my opinion, of lack of following CDC protocols, which has increased in recent weeks.

[clo]

4 minutes ago, clo said:

No. I did.

 

My reply not yours. Obviously.

I keep thinking of the word "xenophobia."

[TrulyBlonde]

2 minutes ago, clo said:

No. I did.

 

My reply not yours. Obviously.

As many as need asylum?  OMG!  If that rate hit 100% you are fine with it. :((

[TrulyBlonde]

Just now, clo said:

I keep thinking of the word "xenophobia."

Yep, always fall back on the name calling. When you cannot provide a suitable response, let's give them a name. It gets old. LOL!

[clo]

1 minute ago, TrulyBlonde said:

As many as need asylum?  OMG!  If that rate hit 100% you are fine with it. :((

Which of course it won't. But these people are suffering enormously and this country has room for them all. What if they were coming from Canada?

[TrulyBlonde]

Just now, clo said:

Which of course it won't. But these people are suffering enormously and this country has room for them all. What if they were coming from Canada?

I am America First. Let's fix our issue in USA before bringing more Covid here. I would hope your support would be with our American citizens before Canada or Mexico. Don't name call me ever again FYI!

[clo]

1 hour ago, TrulyBlonde said:

I would hope your support would be with our American citizens before Canada or Mexico.

Actually no. I'm kinda pro-planet.

[Tranquility Base]

On 3/28/2021 at 6:41 AM, Roccaforte said:

Governor DeSantis met with Department of Transportation and cruise line officials at Port Canaveral yesterday.  He is threatening legal action against the CDC for their rigid policy on keeping cruise ships from sailing from US ports. Maybe this will help.  I can’t see too much danger in cruising if all passengers are required to show proof of vaccination.

I see the Governor has also said he will issue an order forbidding local governments and businesses requiring people from having to prove vaccination via a vaccine passport. 

[clo]

38 minutes ago, Tranquility Base said:

I see the Governor has also said he will issue an order forbidding local governments and businesses requiring people from having to prove vaccination via a vaccine passport. 

Where's that angry emoji?

[sailfar]

Pro planet!.  We are not going anywhere if we use all our energy to bicker, blame and politicize this virus.  We were given good brains and education, also as Christians, the majority faith of our nation, it is important that we care about others. There are too many selfish attitudes being set forth here.  The discourse on this site needs to rise above this low level! 

[SargassoPirate]

It is important to keep in mind that the CDC director is a political appointee beholden to the president.  That makes the CDC a political entity.  Once restrictions are put in place, any political entity adopts a risk averse posture for fear that any negative outcomes will shine a spotlight on the political machine.

 

Case in point - Remember the 55 mph speed limit and how long it took to scrap it long after the energy crisis was solved?  Those in power told us that increasing the speed limit would result in a huge increase in traffic deaths.  When the piles of bodies never materialized, it was finally relegated to the government control dustbin.

 

Same thing now.  Even with the vaccine in most Americans arms by late spring, we are being told by the administration that the best we can hope for is to be able to gather in small groups in our back yards for a cookout on July 4th.  We could do that last year - without a vaccine!!!

 

[Queen of DaNile]

18 hours ago, halfapair said:

It is really unbelievable to me that a mid-level, unelected bureaucrat can seemingly shut down an entire industry.

Get out there and live, people! If you can catch a cruise in another country, do it. If you've always wanted to go to Paris, now's the time.

Don't let the CDC tell you to stop your life. We've traveled during Covid - flew from Seattle to Boston last September and spent 3 weeks looking at pretty leaves. We ate out EVERY DAY, sometimes in crowded places indoors.

We didn't get so much as a sniffle.

Live your life now. Assess the risk, take precautions, but live.

No. You can't go to Paris. I was hoping for June. It's not happening.

"France: New lockdown in Paris and other areas

Nearly a third of the French population in and around Paris, in the north of the country and in the south around Nice, entered a new month-long lockdown on 20 March.

Three additional French regions, including the city of Lyon, are also being put under the same measures from 26 March, for four weeks." BBC News

[Ride-The-Waves]

From this morning's national press:

 

New coronavirus cases in the United States continued to rise in the past week, jumping by as much as 12 percent nationwide, as senior officials implored Americans to stick to public health measures to help reverse the trend.

 

The seven-day average of new cases topped 63,000 for the first time in nearly a month, according to data compiled by The Washington Post, while states such as Michigan, Vermont and North Dakota reported substantial spikes in new infections. The nation appeared poised for a fourth wave of illness even as vaccine eligibility is expanding in many states.

 

Michigan led the nation in new cases with a 57 percent rise over the past week. The state, which relaxed covid-related restrictions earlier this month, also reported the largest increase in coronavirus hospitalizations, which grew by more than 47 percent.

 

We need to keep the pressure on to insure proper use of PPE and social distancing.  We do it here even though we both have been vaccinated now for over 2 months.  With the advent of Spring we are likely to see more South Beach-like super spreader events - not helpful.  Throwing caution to the wind will not get us back on board and at sea.  We intend to be cruising in March 2022.  Make it happen.

[Daniel A]

 

The increased number of "cases" being reported is not necessarily relevant to the conversation.  The 'cases' being reported are merely the numbers of persons testing positive for the presence of the Covid virus.  People who are tested as positive, but not ill continue to go back for more tests until they no longer test positive.  Therefore, those people should not be counted as 'new' cases but they are.  The number of seniors being fully vaccinated continues to grow with a large percentage of seniors already vaccinated.  (72.8% with at least one dose and 49.2% fully vaccinated > over 65 yoa)

 

The true measure (IMHO) is the direction of the number of deaths and hospitalizations due to Covid.  I.e. what is the effect of the Covid virus on the whole population, not merely the presence of the virus.  This will more accurately reflect the effect vaccines are having on this pandemic.

 

According to the CDC:

"New Hospital Admissions

Hospital admissions of patients with confirmed COVID-19 decreased 71.5% from the national 7-day average peak of 16,540 admissions on January 9, 2021"

 

"Deaths

The number of COVID-19 deaths has continued to decline, a trend we observed over the past 10 weeks. The current 7-day moving average of new deaths (946) decreased 72.0% compared with the highest peak on January 13, 2021"

 

See:  COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review | CDC

 

So, I concluded that the wrong statistic is being put out (number of 'cases') as I believe that the > 65 demographic are no longer submitting to Covid-19 testing after being vaccinated and that the percentages of positive tests are coming largely from the population of those yet to be vaccinated.  The above CDC statistics regarding hospitalizations and deaths appear to be tracking in sync with the rate of vaccinations being administered.

 

No, the sky is not falling, despite what some want you to believe.

 

Edited March 30, 2021 by Daniel A

[cruisemom42]

41 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

 

The increased number of "cases" being reported is not necessarily relevant to the conversation.  The 'cases' being reported are merely the numbers of persons testing positive for the presence of the Covid virus.  People who are tested as positive, but not ill continue to go back for more tests until they no longer test positive.  Therefore, those people should not be counted as 'new' cases but they are.  The number of seniors being fully vaccinated continues to grow with a large percentage of seniors already vaccinated.  (72.8% with at least one dose and 49.2% fully vaccinated > over 65 yoa)

 

The true measure (IMHO) is the direction of the number of deaths and hospitalizations due to Covid.  I.e. what is the effect of the Covid virus on the whole population, not merely the presence of the virus.  This will more accurately reflect the effect vaccines are having on this pandemic.

 

According to the CDC:

"New Hospital Admissions

Hospital admissions of patients with confirmed COVID-19 decreased 71.5% from the national 7-day average peak of 16,540 admissions on January 9, 2021"

 

"Deaths

The number of COVID-19 deaths has continued to decline, a trend we observed over the past 10 weeks. The current 7-day moving average of new deaths (946) decreased 72.0% compared with the highest peak on January 13, 2021"

 

See:  COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review | CDC

 

So, I concluded that the wrong statistic is being put out (number of 'cases') as I believe that the > 65 demographic are no longer submitting to Covid-19 testing after being vaccinated and that the percentages of positive tests are coming largely from the population of those yet to be vaccinated.  The above CDC statistics regarding hospitalizations and deaths appear to be tracking in sync with the rate of vaccinations being administered.

 

No, the sky is not falling, despite what some want you to believe.

 

 

However, as a footnote you should also state that deaths lag infections by a few weeks. Thus an increase in infections is worthy of attention -- let's see where we stand in a few weeks. If deaths do not increase, then that's good news and shows vaccination efforts are making a difference.

 

On the other hand, it's possible that deaths WILL increase. We just don't know.

 

[Daniel A]

3 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

On the other hand, it's possible that deaths WILL increase. We just don't know.

At what point in time will we know?  This is the problem with the statistics - following the science now means reacting to our worst fears of what may possibly happen, not what is actually happening.

[Paulchili]

2 hours ago, ORV said:

So that might be a good place for this, I wonder if some people would recognize themselves in any of these examples? 

 

https://examples.yourdictionary.com/straw-man-fallacy-examples.html

Enjoyed the article - thanks

[Daniel A]

1 hour ago, neilrr said:

cases are rising due to IMHO quickly reopening up. If you don't get the virus under control you can not improve the economic situation.

Texas 'reopened' by Executive Order on March 2, 2021.

 

According to the CDC, on March 1, 2021 the number of new cases in Texas was 7,625.  On March 28, 2021 the number of new cases in Texas was 3,845.  That is a 49.6% reduction in the number of cases since Texas 'reopened' on March 2.

 

Aren't we all descended from Neanderthals?

 

See:  CDC COVID Data Tracker

 

 

[cruisemom42]

38 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

At what point in time will we know?  This is the problem with the statistics - following the science now means reacting to our worst fears of what may possibly happen, not what is actually happening.

 

Science is not a crystal ball -- without previous results one cannot made prediction about future results. 

 

The uptick in cases has already occurred, so there's nothing we can do at this point except see what follows. In the past several "waves" an increase in deaths has followed. But vaccines are the confounder -- have we vaccinated enough people fully yet to turn that corner?  Personally, I think caution is in order. It seems much too soon to open up everything again.  But it's not clear that I represent a majority opinion....

 

 

[Daniel A]

5 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

Science is not a crystal ball -- without previous results one cannot made prediction about future results. 

 

The uptick in cases has already occurred, so there's nothing we can do at this point except see what follows. In the past several "waves" an increase in deaths has followed. But vaccines are the confounder -- have we vaccinated enough people fully yet to turn that corner?  Personally, I think caution is in order. It seems much too soon to open up everything again.  But it's not clear that I represent a majority opinion....

One of the problems I have with the statistical reporting is that they keep reporting positive test results for the presence of the virus as being 'cases' which leads people to believe they are citing people who have become ill due to a Covid infection.  In the past, if someone were to be described as having a case of measles, it meant they were physically sick from the infection.  The same is true of most other diseases - except Covid.  Even if you're not sick from the virus, they still count you as being an 'asymptomatic' case and lump them into the same category as the people who are ill.  There really needs to be a better (more truthful) way of reporting the status of the pandemic.