Time to sail

[lostsoulcruiser]

Cruise line stocks rally after CDC said to allow mid-summer cruise restart

Apr. 06, 2021 4:40 PM ETCarnival Corporation & Plc (CCL)By: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor

• Cruise line stocks are higher in after-hours trading after the CDC is reported to have said that cruises can start back up the middle part of this summer with restrictions.
• The details aren't in yet but the headline is enough to prompt some buying action from investors.
• Yesterday, reports indicated that cruise companies do not need to mandate vaccines in order to resume travel.
• Carnival (NYSE:CCL) is 3.81% higher in the late session, while Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NYSE:NCLH) is 1.85% higher. Royal Caribbean is up 3.33%.
• Analysts have been warming up to the cruise line sector over the last few weeks (Citi, Stifel).

[Earthworm Jim]

Hopefully we'll eventually see the quote from the CDC on this.

[SRQbeachgirl]

Here's a link to an article on Bloomberg about this. Apparently the news came after Carnival threatened to sail out of non-U.S. ports.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-06/carnival-threatens-to-move-ships-abroad-amid-cdc-obstacles

 

“CDC is committed to working with the cruise industry and seaport partners to resume cruising following the phased approach outlined in the conditional sailing order,” CDC spokeswoman Jade Fulce said in a response to questions about Carnival. “This goal aligns with the desire to resume passenger operations in the United States expressed by many major cruise ship operators and travelers; hopefully, by mid-summer with restricted revenue sailings.”

[Earthworm Jim]

36 minutes ago, SRQbeachgirl said:

Here's a link to an article on Bloomberg about this. Apparently the news came after Carnival threatened to sail out of non-U.S. ports.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-06/carnival-threatens-to-move-ships-abroad-amid-cdc-obstacles

 

“CDC is committed to working with the cruise industry and seaport partners to resume cruising following the phased approach outlined in the conditional sailing order,” CDC spokeswoman Jade Fulce said in a response to questions about Carnival. “This goal aligns with the desire to resume passenger operations in the United States expressed by many major cruise ship operators and travelers; hopefully, by mid-summer with restricted revenue sailings.”

 

Thanks SRQ.

 

I'm not sure it really means anything then. They could just be saying if the cruise lines follow all the Conditional Sailing Order requirements which they released last Friday, they could be sailing as soon as mid-summer.

[SRQbeachgirl]

7 minutes ago, Earthworm Jim said:

 

Thanks SRQ.

 

I'm not sure it really means anything then. They could just be saying if the cruise lines follow all the Conditional Sailing Order requirements which they released last Friday, they could be sailing as soon as mid-summer.

 

I tend to agree with you. There was also this article below that has the Skagway Mayor quoted as saying they can't even qualify under the CDC guidance for the medical facilities required by ports, so I would imagine a lot of cruise ports would be in the same situation.

 

https://www.ktoo.org/2021/04/06/new-cdc-guidance-seen-as-unworkable-for-cruise-lines-and-small-port-communities/

 

At its height, Skagway welcomed nearly 1.5 million cruise passengers. But it doesn’t have a hospital or the infrastructure the CDC would require under the new guidance.

Skagway’s mayor, Andrew Cremata, said a community of around a thousand people can’t provide treatment for megaships that can carry four to five times the town’s population.

“The reality of the situation is, I look at the CDC guidelines that came out on Friday, and I’m throwing my hands in the air, because we can’t do that,” Cremata said.

[Earthworm Jim]

2 minutes ago, SRQbeachgirl said:

 

I tend to agree with you. There was also this article below that has the Skagway Mayor quoted as saying they can't even qualify under the CDC guidance for the medical facilities required by ports, so I would imagine a lot of cruise ports would be in the same situation.

 

Well the Alaska season looks to be lost between the CSO, the Canada ban, and the PVSA anyway. This medical facility question is just one of the major hurdles they'd need to overcome. The fall Canadian Maritimes cruises which stop a small ports such as Bar Harbor face the same hurdles.

 

But for the rest of the US based cruises, they don't stop at many small US ports. Key West is one. Don't some of the west coast cruises stop at Catalina Island? They may not have large medical facilities. There are probably a few more. But for the most part the US ports cruises stop at or base from are larger cities.

 

[SRQbeachgirl]

1 minute ago, Earthworm Jim said:

 

But for the rest of the US based cruises, they don't stop at many small US ports. Key West is one. Don't some of the west coast cruises stop at Catalina Island? They may not have large medical facilities. There are probably a few more. But for the most part the US ports cruises stop at or base from are larger cities.

 

 

I admit I haven't read the CSO in any detail. Would this medical facility requirement also apply for any port the ships call at, including ports in the Caribbean and Mexico? If yes, that would rule out many if not most ports of call.

[Earthworm Jim]

Just now, SRQbeachgirl said:

 

I admit I haven't read the CSO in any detail. Would this medical facility requirement also apply for any port the ships call at, including ports in the Caribbean and Mexico? If yes, that would rule out many if not most ports of call.

 

That's true. I assumed the CDC wouldn't have jurisdiction in the foreign ports, but like you I'm not really up on understanding exactly what is required so I could be wrong.

[SRQbeachgirl]

Just now, Earthworm Jim said:

 

That's true. I assumed the CDC wouldn't have jurisdiction in the foreign ports, but like you I'm not really up on understanding exactly what is required so I could be wrong.

 

From what little I read, my understanding was that the cruise lines had to show the CDC that they had these agreements for medical facilities in place for each port they call at. So while the CDC doesn't have jurisdiction outside the U.S., they wouldn't give authorization to sail from the U.S. if the cruise lines couldn't come up with the agreements as part of their CSO application to the CDC.

 

Hopefully someone more knowledgeable will come along and correct me if I'm wrong, but if not that could be a huge part of why the cruise lines haven't made any moves to try to comply with the CSO, since it's pretty much unrealistic.

[Earthworm Jim]

If that's the case these medical agreements seem like an insurmountable hurdle, meaning the cruise lines might need to wait until the CSO is lifted to resume US sailings.

[harkinmr]

1 hour ago, Earthworm Jim said:

Hopefully we'll eventually see the quote from the CDC on this.

Here's the quote.  Don't believe the headline.  Nothing has changed since Friday:

 

“CDC is committed to working with the cruise industry and seaport partners to resume cruising following the phased approach outlined in the conditional sailing order,” CDC spokeswoman Jade Fulce said in a response to questions about Carnival. “This goal aligns with the desire to resume passenger operations in the United States expressed by many major cruise ship operators and travelers; hopefully, by mid-summer with restricted revenue sailings.”

[topaz123]

Really...what does the CDC have against the Cruise Industry?

[RiotAct]

the CDC is like a lost little child, reading some of those requirements.

[BlerkOne]

3 hours ago, SRQbeachgirl said:

 

I admit I haven't read the CSO in any detail. Would this medical facility requirement also apply for any port the ships call at, including ports in the Caribbean and Mexico? If yes, that would rule out many if not most ports of call.

Ports of call have denied cruise ships because of a suspected noro outbreak. I don't think they would hesitate to deny a covid ship. Cruise lines could require covid evacuation insurance, or maybe have a hot spare cruise ship near for a hospital ship, or could cancel a cruise over a suspect covid case and warp drive back to the US and hope they aren't denied landing there. Hopefully they won't have to head for whatever country flagged the ship.

[SRQbeachgirl]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

Ports of call have denied cruise ships because of a suspected noro outbreak. I don't think they would hesitate to deny a covid ship. Cruise lines could require covid evacuation insurance, or maybe have a hot spare cruise ship near for a hospital ship, or could cancel a cruise over a suspect covid case and warp drive back to the US and hope they aren't denied landing there. Hopefully they won't have to head for whatever country flagged the ship.

 

I understand all of that, but that really wasn't the point. The point is that if the CDC is requiring a condition that is literally impossible for the cruise lines to meet, then the CDC is either grossly incompent at best or deliberately sabotaging any potential for U.S. sailings at worst.

 

Having worked for the federal government, I don't rule out either of those possibilities.

[BlerkOne]

1 minute ago, SRQbeachgirl said:

 

I understand all of that, but that really wasn't the point. The point is that if the CDC is requiring a condition that is literally impossible for the cruise lines to meet, then the CDC is either grossly incompent at best or deliberately sabotaging any potential for U.S. sailings at worst.

 

Having worked for the federal government, I don't rule out either of those possibilities.

A condition impossible to meet is the CDC urging vaccinations and states prohibiting mandatory vaccines hence cruise lines restarting in other countries where they can require vaccines.

[SRQbeachgirl]

1 minute ago, BlerkOne said:

A condition impossible to meet is the CDC urging vaccinations and states prohibiting mandatory vaccines hence cruise lines restarting in other countries where they can require vaccines.

 

That is NOT why they're starting cruises in other countries. DeSantis banned vaccine passports in Florida a couple of DAYS ago. Cruise lines have been sailing out of other countries for MONTHS. And RCL and other lines announced non-U.S. sailings well before DeSantis announced his EO. 

 

The only reason cruises aren't sailing out of U.S. ports is because the CDC won't let them. It has absolutely nothing to do with statesprohibiting anything.