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CDC says we may be able to start cruising from US this summer


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54 minutes ago, cured said:

And this kind of health/mask shaming is exactly why we we can't have nice things (like cruising) in our country.  Don't be so quick to mock the precautions those across the pond have been adhereing to. At least the UK is getting cruising back this summer. 

 

And don't blame the CDC. Blame the numbers, the science, and the number of covid deniers we have in this country.

 

I thought the anti-science people were famous for saying "You do you, let me do me?"  Why the constant mocking of people who take more precautions than others? You have no idea why they are taking more precautions. We still wipe down our groceries. But we did that before covid due to the medical health of some of the members of our household, one a 30 year old. There is a reason this flu season has been practically nil.

 

Actually the numbers in The UK aren’t much better than the US. So yes.... I’ll blame the CDC. BTW, how many ports in the UK we’re used for cruising pre-Covid? 

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27 minutes ago, Shorewalk Holmes said:

 

True. 

 

The giant US anti-mask movement last year may have cost thousands, if not tens of thousands of lives. 

 

But let's all worry about the people who might be too cautious.

 

I thought it was Covid that killed people. Not anti-maskers. What was it that killed all the folks in Europe? Didn’t they wear masks?

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18 hours ago, dswallow said:

 

Almost every state does have tracking apps that use the anonymous tracking technology implemented by Apple and Google in iPhone and Android phones. 

Quite True, my husband was in ICU for a few days and as his "Care Partner"  (I don't know)  I was allowed to visit each time I did I would get a notice from my phone that I was with a certain radius of a infected individual.  Uh Yeah I was in the ICU.

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20 minutes ago, Goodtime Cruizin said:

I do not & have never worn a mask outside. Hate on me... I don’t even care

I don't wear a mask outside either. It is around my neck though so that I can put it on while I pass people. I want to be conscious that they may be a bit more nervous about unmasked people outside.  I was wearing a mask occasionally in a car. I am sure people passing by me thought I was absolutely crazy.  But what they couldn't see due to the darkness of the windows,  is that I had a passenger in the back seat that was not in our bubble.  

 

Perception is often far removed from reality.

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On 4/8/2021 at 11:02 AM, Keksie said:

I don't want to be tracked.  

If you carry a phone, you are already being tracked in many ways. If you use a debit card, credit card, transit pass, drive a car in a city, go through a toll booth, you are being tracked, the list goes on and on. 

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17 minutes ago, Goodtime Cruizin said:

I thought it was Covid that killed people. Not anti-maskers. What was it that killed all the folks in Europe? Didn’t they wear masks?

I'm not claiming that every death was due to not wearing masks.  Dr. Birx suggested a number attributable to failure to adhere to all mitigation measures:

 

"There were about a hundred thousand deaths that came from that original surge. All of the rest of them, in my mind, could have been mitigated or decreased substantially,”

 

'All the rest' being over 450,000 deaths.

 

In view of this, I thought my suggestion that anti-mask propaganda may have caused thousands to ten thousands of those deaths was pretty cautious.  Unless you believe that masks don't work.

 

As for Europe, of course there were anti-mask movements there too.  But in general I think it's very difficult to prove something by comparing different countries, or even different counties in the same state. 

 

For example I could talk about New Zealand, etc. where there was wonderful mask compliance and very few cases, but I'm not sure it proves anything for sure.

 

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Maybe we could get back to cruising if Michigan, NY and Penn would get their acts together!  GEEZ people.  They need stricter lockdown policies in those states.  Wait they do.  😅😅 

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2 hours ago, cured said:

There is a reason this flu season has been practically nil.

 

Possibly because there is no flu virus around?

 

Lets see, covid is out of control because people won't take precautions but there is no flu because people are taking precautions. Which is it? 🤔

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1 hour ago, DCGuy64 said:

I repeatedly hear on these boards that it's the anti-mask crowd who are responsible for Covid deaths. I'm not sure that's true, but it's one of those assumptions that seem reasonable to people, so they take it to be true. Maybe it is, and maybe it isn't. I just think it's a bad idea to base public policy on people's gut reactions or "I just know it has to be."

 

I think the reasoning behind this claim is a bit more than a gut reaction. 

 

(1) We know the virus spreads through the air.

 

(2) We know from actual studies that wearing a good mask properly reduces the spread of virus into the air, and helps protect the wearer.  In fact, the FDA tests and certifies masks for covid protection.

 

(3) We have statements of some on this board, many on Facebook, and even public officials, who said that they don't wear 'face diapers'.

 

(4) The more people went to large indoor gatherings last winter without wearing a mask, the greater the chance that virus was put in the air, and breathed in, thus spreading the virus.

 

(5) It is reasonable to suppose that the more the virus spreads, the more deaths there would be.

 

Because many of the large indoor gatherings were Thanksgiving and Christmas, it is reasonable to assume that many old folks were exposed, and some of them died.

 

To me, this seems like a reasonable basis for public policy.  Too bad so many people didn't follow it.

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22 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

Possibly because there is no flu virus around?

 

Lets see, covid is out of control because people won't take precautions but there is no flu because people are taking precautions. Which is it? 🤔


Viral Interference 

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9 minutes ago, Shorewalk Holmes said:

 

I think the reasoning behind this claim is a bit more than a gut reaction. 

 

(1) We know the virus spreads through the air.

 

(2) We know from actual studies that wearing a good mask properly reduces the spread of virus into the air, and helps protect the wearer.  In fact, the FDA tests and certifies masks for covid protection.

 

(3) We have statements of some on this board, many on Facebook, and even public officials, who said that they don't wear 'face diapers'.

 

(4) The more people went to large indoor gatherings last winter without wearing a mask, the greater the chance that virus was put in the air, and breathed in, thus spreading the virus.

 

(5) It is reasonable to suppose that the more the virus spreads, the more deaths there would be.

 

Because many of the large indoor gatherings were Thanksgiving and Christmas, it is reasonable to assume that many old folks were exposed, and some of them died.

 

To me, this seems like a reasonable basis for public policy.  Too bad so many people didn't follow it.


ah so there was a big spike after thanksgiving and Xmas? WRONG

 

I am worried about many of you on these boards. 

 

IMG_2730.thumb.jpeg.35ffea83b64f1595de238e286b115608.jpeg

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22 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

Lets see, covid is out of control because people won't take precautions but there is no flu because people are taking precautions. Which is it? 🤔

 

Good question. 

 

I'm no epidemiologist, but could it be due to the difference in R naught between the flu and covid?  R naught for the flu is apparently 1-2 new infections per case, whereas covid is apparently 2-3 infections per case. 

 

Mathematically that should make a huge difference over time.  Maybe you'd need much better compliance to tame covid (without vaccines).

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1 minute ago, Shorewalk Holmes said:

 

Good question. 

 

I'm no epidemiologist, but could it be due to the difference in R naught between the flu and covid?  R naught for the flu is apparently 1-2 new infections per case, whereas covid is apparently 2-3 infections per case. 

 

Mathematically that should make a huge difference over time.  Maybe you'd need much better compliance to tame covid (without vaccines).


Viral Interference 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, TheMastodon said:

ah so there was a big spike after thanksgiving and Xmas?

 

I didn't say, or even imply that there was a big spike in overall cases after Thanksgiving and Christmas!

 

I said that it's reasonable to assume that old folks were particularly impacted by Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings.

 

DCGuy and I are having a discussion on another thread that touches on deaths among old folks and their importance to public policy.

Edited by Shorewalk Holmes
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38 minutes ago, Shorewalk Holmes said:

3) We have statements of some on this board, many on Facebook, and even public officials, who said that they don't wear 'face diapers'.

Very speculative and cannot be proven with certainty. I know plenty of people, myself included, who refer to them as "face diapers,"  and yet I still wear one. I've even said, in a fit of pique, that I refuse to wear them, yet I do.

I don't disagree with you, @Shorewalk Holmes (love your name, BTW) 😊, all I'm saying is that a lot of what people say on this subject is assumptions. That's reality.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, gmjc2 said:

The mask in the car is kinda silly but there is a reason for the wiping down of the groceries. Who knows if an infected person touched the item after wiping their nose etc! We did wait until we got home though. Since we have had our shots we do not do that anymore but we still wear a mask, wipe down our cart and use a disinfectant wipe on our hands before we open the car door. 

There is no way you can convince me you don't come into at least some contact with surfaces where contaminants are located...I repeat no way.  There is no way outside locations with thousands of people can maintain a sterile environment.  It's even hard to maintain in a surgical suite. 

 

The virus seems to be able to survive on cardboard for about 24 hours, and on plastic for up to three days. However, it's important to know that the amount of virus detectable on a surface reduces sharply with time — with significantly less infectious virus on cardboard, for example, in as little as four hours.Apr 27, 2020  from the CDC

 

I have never wiped down anything from any store...still here!

 

And then of course, there is the huge debacle over the proper wearing of any mask and that just can't be monitored or enforced.  Period.  I've seen some incredible things like masks on upside down, the gaps over the nose, masks below the nose and wearing a homemade cloth mask that looks like it's never been laundered at all. This is what makes it pretty ridiculous.  I wear all kinds of masks, but I laundry the cloth ones after each outing, I make sure the nose band is nice and snug, never wear it below my nose.  But I see plenty of people who do not pay the slightest attention to this issue, they are petri dishes.

Edited by BecciBoo
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1 hour ago, Ocean Boy said:

Possibly because there is no flu virus around?

 

Lets see, covid is out of control because people won't take precautions but there is no flu because people are taking precautions. Which is it? 🤔

Good point. Doesn't make sense at all, does it.? I should probably go have some more medicinal coffee.

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1 hour ago, Ocean Boy said:

Possibly because there is no flu virus around?

 

Lets see, covid is out of control because people won't take precautions but there is no flu because people are taking precautions. Which is it? 🤔

Covid is not "out of control" in the sense that infections are spreading uncontrolled like they were early in the pandemic, but you knew that already; you just wanted to grind your axe.  Covid is killing people while flu is not because Covid is more contagious and more severe, so it spreads despite the partial participation in mitigation efforts; flu is less contagious and less severe, so even the partial participation in mitigation efforts has nipped it in the bud.  You said one thing somewhat correct: flu is finding fewer hosts, so there is less of it around.  But that doesn't mean that there's some mysterious incongruence between Covid and flu.  IT TAKES MORE EFFORT TO MITIGATE COVID. 

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1 hour ago, Shorewalk Holmes said:

 

Good question. 

 

I'm no epidemiologist, but could it be due to the difference in R naught between the flu and covid?  R naught for the flu is apparently 1-2 new infections per case, whereas covid is apparently 2-3 infections per case. 

 

Mathematically that should make a huge difference over time.  Maybe you'd need much better compliance to tame covid (without vaccines).

Spot on, without the "maybe."  You DO need much better compliance to tame Covid in the absence of vaccines.  In fact, the experience with the virus before vaccines is decent proof that you need more compliance than people are generally willing to engage in.

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41 minutes ago, DCGuy64 said:

all I'm saying is that a lot of what people say on this subject is assumptions.

 

True.  But it's difficult to absolutely prove general statements about human behavior.

 

Also thanks for the compliment 🙂

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There's plenty of arguing to do on this thread, but here's my take on the OP:

 

CDC would be fine with cruising restarting, as long as there is no statistically significant increase in cases related to cruising that CDC would be blamed for, given that they seem to have unique power to stop cruising altogether.

 

Here's the problem: in order to sail on an enclosed ship safely, there needs to be solid evidence that vaccines prevent Covid from spreading on the ship.  Why are vaccines so important?  Because CDC knows that the performative "cruises to nowhere" with restricted capacity and mandatory masking and distancing are not going to satisfy the cruise lines or cruisers for very long.  Both cruisers and cruise lines want things as close to normal as they used to be.  I sure do.

 

In order to accumulate that evidence, there must be test cruises of vaccinated people in which there are no outbreaks.  In order to allow test cruises, CDC must be satisfied that the variants that are driving the stall in case decreases are also controlled by the vaccine; CDC is clearly not satisfied with that evidence yet.  And they are in a no-win situation: they will not get credit for allowing cruises to restart; they will only be blamed for the first cruise ship outbreak, if it occurs.  They would rather be the bad guys urging caution than cave to pressure to restart and then have to answer for an avoidable outbreak.  

 

So, CDC cover their rear end.  They require lines to jump through unrealistic hoops to restart cruising, thereby allowing them to say, "welp, we did all we could to prevent Covid from spreading on cruise ships."  They don't care whether cruising, which is near the bottom of the list of human activities in importance, restarts; they just want to keep their public health credibility intact.

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7 hours ago, jean87510 said:

I have actually seen someone swimming with a mask while in Cozumel.  And was in line at supermarket self check out waiting for a woman to stop wiping all her packages while bagging.  I seriously wonder at some of these folks.  As an aside, the swimmer with the mask got out, gave us a dirty look as we were maskless 20 ft away from her in the ocean, and proceeded to light a cigarette with the wet mask dangling from her chin.  I so wished we captured this mask theater on film.

 

There was a mask wearer at our pool today. All wet and below her nose. Priceless 🤣

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3 hours ago, livingonthebeach said:

A bit of good news -- July 2, 2021 restart for Bahamas Paradise -- I guess they're carrying passengers under the CDC limit. 

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/24749-bahamas-paradise-to-resume-cruising-on-july-2.html

I am looking at their website and says that yo can book for July. I don't see anything about capacity limits.

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