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Carnival Corp: 25 Ships Operating Could Cover Pause Costs for Fleet


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In all likelihood around 40-50 ships operating at 50% would likely achieve the same result. If AIDA, Costa, and P&O (UK) are running, that gets to around 36. Toss in a few Princess and/or Holland America ships and that would get into the 40s.

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The earnings werent they pretty bad? I only heard the tail end of the earnings call.

 

It said the top 25 ships needed to cover the cost of the pause ... and we dont know the 9 ships operating are the top ships. Carnival will have 9 operating    SOON.

 

_________

 

Carnival Corporation will have nine ships operating soon between its AIDA, Costa, Cunard, Princess, P&O UK and Seabourn brands, and hopes to continue with a staggered restart.

How many ships will it take before the financials start looking better? Using 2019 as a baseline, a fleet of 25 ships operating may be the magic number, according to David Bernstein, chief financial officer, speaking on the company's first quarter business update call on Wednesday.

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1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

That is 25 ships operating at full capacity to just break even.

Hopefully CCL can hang in there.

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Already established that Carnival has enough cash and/or credit to weather the shutdown. They could be biding their time until the CSO expires Nov. 1 and resume cruises without restrictions. Two factors that make this a reasonable business decision: 1) they would obviously want to sail at the highest possible capacity. Their business model has always been marketing and pricing to fill the ships. 2) they most likely don't want to move home ports out of the U.S. because it couldn't possibly be cost effective to find new suppliers of the vast amount of food and beverages needed for each cruise outside of the U.S. The vaccine rollout is moving right along and millions more will get their shots in April and May. Fully vaccinated cruises could resume well before Nov.1. As more and more people get vaccinated the cases should plummet. Carnival will look smart if the other cruise lines have Covid-19 problems this Summer with their temporary foreign homeports. Carnival may not be in favor of mandatory vaccines; however, it pretty much will be necessary to pass muster with the CDC, especially if they want the CDC to drop the CSO before Nov. 1.

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Most people believe that the Nov 1st date is a "drop dead" date for the CSO.  However, after the CDC held a "request for information" period, seeking comments from interested parties, and then having the required review period after, all of the requirements listed in the NSO (which are the same as the CSO), can become permanent federal regulations without further comment or delay.  Even if the CSO expires on Nov 1st, I don't foresee much change in the CDC stance.

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Some Wall Street Analysts are looking for CCL to rebound up to $33/share. $40 max.  Just below $30 now.  All under the assumption that CCL's lines start to cruise in some fashion.

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13 minutes ago, crewsweeper said:

Some Wall Street Analysts are looking for CCL to rebound up to $33/share. $40 max.  Just below $30 now.  All under the assumption that CCL's lines start to cruise in some fashion.

And a lot looking at ccl dont have a clue cruiselines are in cdc iron grip. Unlike other travel stocks like hotels. It's a covid opening play .. hotels are rebounding so they say ccl will too. It's also been diluted so isnt worth what it was before. One out of many analysts isnt enough to convince those who understand why ccl is different than a airline or hotel stock. I think yahoo finance will show what all the analysts are predicting as far as buy sell hold or in between. If you need help.

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6 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Credit Suisse owns over a million shares of CCL. They have been buying.

 

https://fintel.io/so/us/ccl/credit-suisse-ag-

Credit Suisse Ag/ ownership in CCL / Carnival Corp

2021-02-12 - Credit Suisse Ag/ has filed a 13F-HR form disclosing ownership of 1,269,472 shares of Carnival Corp (US:CCL) with total holdings valued at $27,498,000 USD as of 2020-12-31. Credit Suisse Ag/ had filed a previous 13F-HR on 2020-11-13 disclosing 897,822 shares of Carnival Corp at a value of $13,630,000 USD. This represents a change in shares of 41.39 percent and a change in value of 101.75 percent during the quarter.

Credit Suisse Ag/ has a history of taking positions in derivatives of the underlying security (CCL) in the form of stock options. The firm currently holds 616,500 call options valued at $13,354,000 USD and 686,100 put options valued at $14,861,000 USD .

Other investors with positions similar to Credit Suisse Ag/ include Citigroup Inc, T. Rowe Price Associates Inc /md/, Hsbc Holdings Plc, Rhumbline Advisers, Sprucegrove Investment Management Ltd, and APG Asset Management N.V..

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Hello Carnival Cruise Nuts. Very interesting conversations. Just proves that Carnival and the Industry still have many obstacles to overcome prior to effective and safe sailing. We knew it would be challenging but the strong usually prevail. I gave the utmost confidence in the Carnival Corporation and it's Leadership Beards. 

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

A upgrade is for traders who are in and out the same day. Buying for the long haul you should look at earnings, pe, charts, something other than a one day trade. Looks like yahoo no longer shows all the analysts but says the price here is OVERVALUED and the chart is NEUTRAL. 

 

Nothing says buy here. Unless you are trading not holding. Use your head since we know about cdc. Plenty of time to get in before ccl restarts. Not today at this price unless you dont have a clue about charts and earnings. I've done stocks for 50 years. I live off stocks. It's my bread and butter. There are maybe 9 to 15 analysts with positions buy sell hold ..a one day upgrade is when you sell or trade, not buy long. Wait for a dip.

20210409_095307.jpg

Edited by firefly333
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4 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Credit Suisse owns over a million shares of CCL. They have been buying.

 

https://fintel.io/so/us/ccl/credit-suisse-ag-

Credit Suisse Ag/ ownership in CCL / Carnival Corp

2021-02-12 - Credit Suisse Ag/ has filed a 13F-HR form disclosing ownership of 1,269,472 shares of Carnival Corp (US:CCL) with total holdings valued at $27,498,000 USD as of 2020-12-31. Credit Suisse Ag/ had filed a previous 13F-HR on 2020-11-13 disclosing 897,822 shares of Carnival Corp at a value of $13,630,000 USD. This represents a change in shares of 41.39 percent and a change in value of 101.75 percent during the quarter.

Credit Suisse Ag/ has a history of taking positions in derivatives of the underlying security (CCL) in the form of stock options. The firm currently holds 616,500 call options valued at $13,354,000 USD and 686,100 put options valued at $14,861,000 USD .

Other investors with positions similar to Credit Suisse Ag/ include Citigroup Inc, T. Rowe Price Associates Inc /md/, Hsbc Holdings Plc, Rhumbline Advisers, Sprucegrove Investment Management Ltd, and APG Asset Management N.V..

What price did they buy at is the question to ask yourself. This says they are doing options/derivatives. Calls or puts perhaps. Call up, put down, for those who dont know options. Betting on which direction a stock will move. Gambling to me, options are for computer trading.

 

So now we know they have a vested interest in pushing the stock higher. Good to know what their bias is. Please be smart. It will dip again. It's not taking off from here right now. Learn how to read charts.

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16 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

A upgrade is for traders who are in and out the same day. Buying for the long haul you should look at earnings, pe, charts, something other than a one day trade. Looks like yahoo no longer shows all the analysts but says the price here is OVERVALUED and the chart is NEUTRAL. 

 

Nothing says buy here. Unless you are trading not holding. Use your head since we know about cdc. Plenty of time to get in before ccl restarts. Not today at this price unless you dont have a clue about charts and earnings. I've done stocks for 50 years. I live off stocks. It's my bread and butter. There are maybe 9 to 15 analysts with positions buy sell hold ..a one day upgrade is when you sell or trade, not buy long. Wait for a dip.

20210409_095307.jpg

Firefly great tips. You need to create a Carnival Blog just for educating the masses via the stock market. I am serious.

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7 minutes ago, jetsfan58 said:

Firefly great tips. You need to create a Carnival Blog just for educating the masses via the stock market. I am serious.

I'm too old for a following lol. I'm just quoting adages. Sell on the news is another good one. My etrade stock last year popped on the news it was being bought out. I sold that day. Same with ccl today. You sell by the end of the day on the pop.

 

Options for those that didnt understand what I meant. A call means you are betting the stock goes up, hence the expression "call up". A put is a bet the stock will drop. Hence they say "put down" as a easy way to remember it. These options are time sensitive and very very hard to do. I know Robin hood walks you thru this stuff, it's still almost impossible to do. 

 

If i wanted to trade today i personally would sell ccl short. I click sell short. I'm selling shares i dont own at the high today. ..this doesnt lose value over time like options. Then when it drops a few pts, click buy to cover and buy the shares to cover your short.

 

Unless you are a day trader dont buy on the news. 

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4 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I'm too old for a following lol. I'm just quoting adages. Sell on the news is another good one. My etrade stock last year popped on the news it was being bought out. I sold that day. Same with ccl today. You sell by the end of the day on the pop.

 

Options for those that didnt understand what I meant. A call means you are betting the stock goes up, hence the expression "call up". A put is a bet the stock will drop. Hence they say "put down" as a easy way to remember it. These options are time sensitive and very very hard to do. I know Robin hood walks you thru this stuff, it's still almost impossible to do. 

 

If i wanted to trade today i personally would sell ccl short. I click sell short. I'm selling shares i dont own at the high today. ..this doesnt lose value over time like options. Then when it drops a few pts, click buy to cover and buy the shares to cover your short.

 

Unless you are a day trader dont buy on the news. 

Awesome and God Bless you for sharing the knowledge. Each One Mentor One and continue to spread the love.

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The Swiss bank is not really a player. They hold less than .2% of the shares, and put an call options split across the amount long. They sell the puts and calls and keep the premiums. Truth is most of these puts and calls are never exercised so the bank earns money no matter which way it goes. 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Moviela said:

The Swiss bank is not really a player. They hold less than .2% of the shares, and put an call options split across the amount long. They sell the puts and calls and keep the premiums. Truth is most of these puts and calls are never exercised so the bank earns money no matter which way it goes. 

Yes the majority of options expire worthless. That's why I warned against them. I read the link blerk had and saw it said they were doing options. We agree.

 

The only guy who I thought was smart with options sold covered calls in a dead market years ago. This market is not dead. But let's say it settles down. You have some stocks you are holding long. You sell a covered call on them for $3 a share or less. If the stock rises to whatever price pt you set, who ever bought the calls purchased the stocks for that price. If the stock doesnt rise you made $3 selling the call and lost nothing. If the stock gets called away you buy something else. He made enough on covered calls in a flat market to live on. Options are for experts imo, not beginners.

 

I agree it's just a standard disclosure. Officers of ccl also disclose their buys and sells. 

Edited by firefly333
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That Carnival can borrow money at will without collateral tells you all you need to know. The stock market continues to trend up  - it is trivial to find stocks that are "overvalued", almost all are - whether the bluest of bluechip or gamestop.

 

Individuals own less than 10% of the stock. They are almost irrelevant.

 

 

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11 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Most people believe that the Nov 1st date is a "drop dead" date for the CSO.  However, after the CDC held a "request for information" period, seeking comments from interested parties, and then having the required review period after, all of the requirements listed in the NSO (which are the same as the CSO), can become permanent federal regulations without further comment or delay.  Even if the CSO expires on Nov 1st, I don't foresee much change in the CDC stance.

 

It will be interesting to see whether a court agrees with the part of the Florida lawsuit that alleges the CDC did not provide proper notice and comment under the Administrative Procedures Act. And even if it's determined they didn't, but can claim good cause due to the HHS emergency health declaration, that might not be enough to change regulations permanently.

     

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9 hours ago, SRQbeachgirl said:

 

It will be interesting to see whether a court agrees with the part of the Florida lawsuit that alleges the CDC did not provide proper notice and comment under the Administrative Procedures Act. And even if it's determined they didn't, but can claim good cause due to the HHS emergency health declaration, that might not be enough to change regulations permanently.

     

It's my belief that when the CDC asked, back in September, for an extension of the NSO until February, that that was merely a bargaining chip to get the administration to agree to a one month extension, which is what was needed for the review time after the comment period to meet the APA.  Also, since the CSO is basically the same as the NSO, that means that the requirements of the CSO have met the notice, comment, and review requirements of the APA, as is called out specifically out in the CSO.  The lawsuit also states that the comment and review period were held.

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Back to the subject of breaking even, I was watching Barron's round table last night and the guest was the mgr of a fund and he said ccl isnt like other opening plays, that its basically not operating here and bringing in revenue and will take longer to come back to profitability than expected. Might take longer than 2023. Which is what I've been saying. Also, imo, that $600 obc will keep them from being profitable. Cruises run on small margins. 

 

They wouldnt be at that 25 biggest ships number possibly this year. Not unless they are able to start toward reopening soon. And doesnt look like it to me. Even ccl ceo said 2023 to get back to normal. I expect them to operate at a loss until then. Will take a while to pay down debt. ...and meanwhile they will be borrowing for a while. 

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On 4/9/2021 at 10:29 AM, crewsweeper said:

Some Wall Street Analysts are looking for CCL to rebound up to $33/share. $40 max.  Just below $30 now.  All under the assumption that CCL's lines start to cruise in some fashion.

 

Considering they are $30 now while shut down with no path to cruising, $40 could happen at the first announcement.

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20 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

 

Considering they are $30 now while shut down with no path to cruising, $40 could happen at the first announcement.

Right now it's in a trading range. Goes up to 29, sells off a few pts, traders jump back in, goes back up, rinse and repeat.

 

Stocks dont make a 33% jump on news except very rarely. Chart knowledge would help a lot. As the stock rises people will be selling and taking profits. Creating new resistance pts. Each pt after it rises above 30 is going to be a lot of profit taking and tough sledding. Traders could jump in and make it rise to where it's even more overvalued in this crazy market, anything is possible. But unlikely.

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