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Question for Unvax'd who have July/August/Sept Carnival cruises booked...


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9 hours ago, Moviela said:

I think the only protected class of adults eligible for unrestricted cruising are those who have a reasonable, articulated, medical reason for avoiding the vaccine. A doctor's letter without such a restricted statement would be as effective as slapping a pet shop service animal vest on your pooch and trying to board. 

I think so too.  I actually think they will choose children.  An adult with health issues that prevent them from being vaccinated seems high risk to me.

Edited by TNcruising02
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1 hour ago, mpdog42 said:

Disney is the adult in the room? Disney is the very "woke" adult in the room...At least Carnival has a special event for Military and Veteran's...Seen that on Disney???


I love the special event for the military on Carnival and think it's such a great thing to do.   They also do the Groove for St Jude.

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10 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

 

 

While in theory, there should be some strong demand built up, when you automatically disqualify half of society, that's going to hurt. Period. It's also a big assumption that all of the vaccinated people feel completely comfortable to cruise right now either.

 

I mean how many unvaccinated people want to spend thousands of dollars on a cruise vacation with required masking while indoors (including while between courses at dinner!), possible closure of ports, threat of cruise termination, and threat of quarantine (not being able to fly home)? The choice isn't between a 2019 cruise with vaccinated people or a 2019 cruises with unvaccinated people; the choice is between a (close to a) 2019 cruise with vaccinated people or a strict covid protocol cruise with unvaccinated people. 

As far a the market, enough people get vaccinated every day (~400,000) to fill every cruise ship that sails out of the United States 2 times over.

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9 minutes ago, Branman said:

As far a the market, enough people get vaccinated every day (~400,000) to fill every cruise ship that sails out of the United States 2 times over.

Um.  Not so sure about that.  I found this online

 

According to statistics published by CLIA, around 15% of the total US population has cruised ever, and 7% to 8% have done so within the last three years. This means that 85% of US citizens have never taken a cruise

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3 minutes ago, balcony bound said:

Um.  Not so sure about that.  I found this online

 

According to statistics published by CLIA, around 15% of the total US population has cruised ever, and 7% to 8% have done so within the last three years. This means that 85% of US citizens have never taken a cruise


It would be interesting to poll cruisers and see the actual percentage of vaccinated and unvaccinated.  I think people who cruise might be more likely to get vaccinated, especially the older cruisers.

Edited by TNcruising02
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4 minutes ago, balcony bound said:

Um.  Not so sure about that.  I found this online

 

According to statistics published by CLIA, around 15% of the total US population has cruised ever, and 7% to 8% have done so within the last three years. This means that 85% of US citizens have never taken a cruise

So, if 8% of the population are cruisers, then (assuming a pure random sample) 32,000 cruisers are vaccinated every day. So now you move up to enough people are vaccinated each week to fill up every cruise ship that departs the United States.

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4 minutes ago, Branman said:

So, if 8% of the population are cruisers, then (assuming a pure random sample) 32,000 cruisers are vaccinated every day. So now you move up to enough people are vaccinated each week to fill up every cruise ship that departs the United States.

I understand what you are saying but there are apparently many who are hesitant to get back onboard until things change toward normal.  I am totally discounting the small percentage who would post on Cruise Critic - most, if not all of the folks I know who cruise have never even heard of Cruise Critic.

 

I'm curious how many will change their minds about trip insurance and passports.

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19 hours ago, sm3ds said:

With only 41% of the population vaccinated and demand for vaccines falling off a cliff they won't be able to sustain this long term. They can fill their two or three ships at half capacity for now, but eventually their going to want to start making money. 

My first cruise is in January and I will cancel or reschedule it at final payment if Vaccines are still required in October, but I think SM3DS is exactly right, Carnival will drop the vaccine requirement as soon as they get the chance. 41% of the population vaccinated, but even much less of a percentage amongst regular Carnival cruisers. 

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8 minutes ago, balcony bound said:

I am totally discounting the small percentage who would post on Cruise Critic - most, if not all of the folks I know who cruise have never even heard of Cruise Critic.

This is so true, we are such a small sliver of the cruise market. Literally no one I know who cruises talks about it on any board like we do. Much of Carnival's market is rural America. 

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1 hour ago, Flytko said:

 

Thank you!!!!!

 

 I have been lurking for the last week on my phone, and you are right, there is almost nothing mentioned about the people that had and recovered from COVID.  My family and I had it over the Christmas holidays, thankfully very mild, my wife tested for antibodies last month and found out that she still had them. Her doctor told her that you have antibodies, it's not logical to get the vaccine.  I plan on having getting the test as well.

 

We did travel to Disney not long after we recovered, and despite all of their protocols, everyone had a great time.  It was plenty crowded for being at 35 percent capacity, we had no issues at all with flying and being in the parks.

 

  Unfortunately, everyone is high and mighty on the vaccine talk and forgets that there are plenty of people who recovered and have immunity.  I booked for an August cruise on the Breeze last week with the intent that Carnival was going to go the test cruise route.  Now, I am really reconsidering what to do.  I was able to push back my final payment until next month just to see what they say for the August cruises.  If they do the exemption list, we could get our 5 yr old twins on it, but I know we wouldn't make it since no one bats an eye at natural immunity.

 

 We were really hoping on cruising, but with the uncertainty and the collective mood I have been seeing, we will probably wait. 

 

Go ahead and flame away........  Just my 2 cents

Have you even talked to Carnival about your situation?

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14 minutes ago, asalligo said:

This is so true, we are such a small sliver of the cruise market. Literally no one I know who cruises talks about it on any board like we do. Much of Carnival's market is rural America. 

Define Rural America........

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16 hours ago, amcankid said:

Once again you’re showing the me first attitude that most anti- vaxxers show.

To say the fragility is not your problem makes it a problem for all. Whether you care if you ever go on another cruise or not doesn’t mean the rest of us are as ambivalent to cruising.

And most of us who do want the cruise industry to survive and thrive understand the importance of doing all that can be done to avoid a serious outbreak which would effectively shut the industry down.

I could care less whether you choose to get vaccinated outside of anything cruise related. If you shop at Walmart and later that week you get extremely sick, Walmart will continue to thrive. 
Not so if either on the ship or shortly after the cruise. They will trace it back to the ship and shut it down for thorough cleansing. And if enough passengers get sick? Goodbye cruise industry for another few months, some permanently. 
Not that you care, cause you could take or leave what we passionately love!

While I dont disagree with much of what you said, we're still harping about the symptoms, not the problem, which is government overreach and control of an industry.  The cruise lines are the main victims trying to read all of the mixed messages.  Guarantee they would sort it out in short order without the government.  It's called a free market.  

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18 hours ago, sm3ds said:

 

 

Cruise lines have designed all their new ships for family's not for old people. They were counting on the family market. Maybe they can get the old people to play laser tag, bumper cars and ride the rollercoaster. I don't know, but I'm guessing they prefer the smaller ships.  

 

As far as the fragility of the cruise industry that's not my problem. My life has been fine over the last year without cruises. I enjoy cruises and I'd like to go on one again someday, but it's not the end of the world if the cruise lines don't survive.  

 

 

Not sure how old you are, but I am in my 60's and I love all the new features and plan to partake in them when I sail the Mardi Gras. (Lord willing) I love rollercoasters and the sky course even basketball still, heck my MIL is 76 years old and she can out last me. LOL!!!

 

As far as caring if the cruise lines survive, well I most certainly care as well as I care about the many other vacay destinations I do, just because one is passionate about cruising does not mean that's the only vacay they do. I'm just saying!!!

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1 hour ago, Branman said:

So, if 8% of the population are cruisers, then (assuming a pure random sample) 32,000 cruisers are vaccinated every day. So now you move up to enough people are vaccinated each week to fill up every cruise ship that departs the United States.

You're assuming those people want to cruise. can afford to cruise, and are heathy enough to cruise. Many people only take one or two cruises in a lifetime. They have to keep bringing in first time cruisers.  

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1 hour ago, Branman said:

 

I mean how many unvaccinated people want to spend thousands of dollars on a cruise vacation with required masking while indoors (including while between courses at dinner!), possible closure of ports, threat of cruise termination, and threat of quarantine (not being able to fly home)? The choice isn't between a 2019 cruise with vaccinated people or a 2019 cruises with unvaccinated people; the choice is between a (close to a) 2019 cruise with vaccinated people or a strict covid protocol cruise with unvaccinated people. 

As far a the market, enough people get vaccinated every day (~400,000) to fill every cruise ship that sails out of the United States 2 times over.

 

Again, these are things that are being assumed due to our self-induced panic. You may be right, you may not be. What if these things never happen? 

 

If half of cruisers have vaccine immunity. "X" percentage have the taboo natural immunity. 100% of crew are vaccinated, we have what 70-80%+ of the ship with an immunity? How many of the rest would never even show symptoms IF they caught it? No need for math that says well "20-30%" of a ship is a lot of people. We know that. That is not how COVID is spreading though. All while panicking over the health of the 1% of society at risk who SHOULD be the focus of vaccination. It's ridiculous that we would shut down everything for a few cases.

 

1 hour ago, Branman said:

So, if 8% of the population are cruisers, then (assuming a pure random sample) 32,000 cruisers are vaccinated every day. So now you move up to enough people are vaccinated each week to fill up every cruise ship that departs the United States.

 

I see you aren't in marketing.

 

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3 hours ago, mpdog42 said:

Disney is the adult in the room? Disney is the very "woke" adult in the room...At least Carnival has a special event for Military and Veteran's...Seen that on Disney???

What does that have to do with restarting cruising??? I was referring to their PR department. As far as the military goes Disney does give really substantial military discounts on certain cruises. Sometimes as much as 30-40% off. They also offer deep discounts at resorts and on tickets. but that is totally off topic.  

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1 hour ago, asalligo said:

This is so true, we are such a small sliver of the cruise market. Literally no one I know who cruises talks about it on any board like we do. Much of Carnival's market is rural America. 

I don't know anyone that cruises regularly much less hangs out on a cruise forum. 

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5 minutes ago, sm3ds said:

You're assuming those people want to cruise. can afford to cruise, and are heathy enough to cruise. Many people only take one or two cruises in a lifetime. They have to keep bringing in first time cruisers.  

 

I'd argue that the 8% multiplier accounts for that. What would you propose as alternate numbers?

 

We're vaccinating 400,000 (new) people per day in the U.S. That trend is going down, so let's say by the time July rolls around it's 300,000 first shots per day. That's two million people per week receiving their first dose in addition to the 172 million (or 51.8% of the population) that have received their first dose. By August you will have at least 180 million people fully vaccinated (including over 85% of 65+). How many of those need to be cruisers in order to support the reduced fleets in August, September, and October?

 

Additionally, international travel is opening soon. Canada and the U.K. have over 60% of their residents with their first dose. You will also see international demand pick up as well. It's not a huge market for Carnival, but you could usually count on a one or two hundred people on cruises out of Florida being international.

 

Like was said in an earlier post (I forget which thread), it's not like people are becoming unvaccinated. The pool of potential customers grows by hundreds of thousands of people each day. The cruise lines will probably make more money with higher capacity ships that don't enforce masks and social distancing vs lower capacity ships with masks and social distancing.

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16 hours ago, sm3ds said:

I’m not very young, but I do have teens and I know what they like on a cruise ship and it’s not Hal. 

I'm 62 and I don't like HAL either. Give me Oasis style, Loud and action packed😃

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14 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

 

Again, these are things that are being assumed due to our self-induced panic. You may be right, you may not be. What if these things never happen? 

 

If half of cruisers have vaccine immunity. "X" percentage have the taboo natural immunity. 100% of crew are vaccinated, we have what 70-80%+ of the ship with an immunity? How many of the rest would never even show symptoms IF they caught it? No need for math that says well "20-30%" of a ship is a lot of people. We know that. That is not how COVID is spreading though. All while panicking over the health of the 1% of society at risk who SHOULD be the focus of vaccination. It's ridiculous that we would shut down everything for a few cases.

 

 

I see you aren't in marketing.

 

 

Why are you talking about protecting people onboard the ship? The precautions aren't in place to protect them, the precautions are in place to enable calling on ports who don't have access to vaccines. I'm not against having un-vaccinated cruises to nowhere with no social distancing requirements for people who have access to vaccines-- that's a personal choice for those unvaccinated and more power to them. However, ports are well within their rights as sovereign nations to deny docking to ships that have coronavirus cases on board. Until vaccines have been available across the Caribbean, you will see precautions in place.

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2 hours ago, TNcruising02 said:


It would be interesting to poll cruisers and see the actual percentage of vaccinated and unvaccinated.  I think people who cruise might be more likely to get vaccinated, especially the older cruisers.

It would also be interesting to see the numbers for each age category. I agree with you that among older cruisers, the vaccination figure would probably be higher than among the young, but it would be interesting to see by how much.

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38 minutes ago, Branman said:

 

Why are you talking about protecting people onboard the ship? The precautions aren't in place to protect them, the precautions are in place to enable calling on ports who don't have access to vaccines. I'm not against having un-vaccinated cruises to nowhere with no social distancing requirements for people who have access to vaccines-- that's a personal choice for those unvaccinated and more power to them. However, ports are well within their rights as sovereign nations to deny docking to ships that have coronavirus cases on board. Until vaccines have been available across the Caribbean, you will see precautions in place.

Well said. I wonder how many treat these sovereign nations with as much disrespect as they do the crew.

 

And I do not think we will see a high percentage of vaccinated on many of the islands, especially the poorer ones for quite awhile.

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22 hours ago, sm3ds said:

With only 41% of the population vaccinated and demand for vaccines falling off a cliff they won't be able to sustain this long term. They can fill their two or three ships at half capacity for now, but eventually their going to want to start making money. 

52% fully vaccinated & over 60% have had at least one shot.  That's without kids being able to get.  Ships will be full of vaccinated.  

Edited by dandeck
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18 hours ago, amcankid said:

Once again you’re showing the me first attitude that most anti- vaxxers show.

To say the fragility is not your problem makes it a problem for all. Whether you care if you ever go on another cruise or not doesn’t mean the rest of us are as ambivalent to cruising.

And most of us who do want the cruise industry to survive and thrive understand the importance of doing all that can be done to avoid a serious outbreak which would effectively shut the industry down.

I could care less whether you choose to get vaccinated outside of anything cruise related. If you shop at Walmart and later that week you get extremely sick, Walmart will continue to thrive. 
Not so if either on the ship or shortly after the cruise. They will trace it back to the ship and shut it down for thorough cleansing. And if enough passengers get sick? Goodbye cruise industry for another few months, some permanently. 
Not that you care, cause you could take or leave what we passionately love!

Spot on analysis!!  

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Right now there are 52.4% or 172 million people with one shot - you would think the majority would get 2 shots.  But I still think the cruise lines will cave for 2 reasons (if not now, in a few months).  They caved to the smokers and only 14% of the population smokes.

 

All businesses want to market to 100% of people.

 

Here is the breakdown in 2019 of cruisers.  Lots of younger folks that most likely won't get the vaccine.

 

Breakdown of cruisers by age:

  • 12 and under – 9%
  • 13 to 19 – 6%
  • 20 to 29 – 9%
  • 30 to 39 – 11%
  • 40 to 49 – 15%
  • 50 to 59 – 18%
  • 60 to 69 – 19%
  • 70 and over – 14%
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