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Two Test Positive On Millenium


morfred
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There always will be risk regardless of whether it's a vaccinated cruise or a cruise with some unvaccinated who have been tested, etc. I suspect we're gonna see this on many cruises - on both fully vaccinated and not fully vaxxed cruises. It is reality.

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39 minutes ago, marieps said:

Thanks, Markeb.  Have you an insight as to whether the outcome of the Millie situation will effect the possible extension of the CSO framework?

 

No. Sorry. We're into the intersection of science, policy, and like it or not, politics. 

 

Honestly, this isn't surprising. They're running an extremely sensitive and specific diagnostic test in what I'd consider a non-diagnostic mode. It essentially becomes a screening test, and screening tests should have false positives. Which doesn't mean that they didn't detect viral RNA on the PCR, the question is does it mean anything. Policy and politically, yes. Medically, if the individuals were vaccinated, probably not.

 

In a patient care setting, you'd correlate the signs and symptoms you're observing with your test results. It's an outrageous example, but it's the world I lived in for a long time. If I have a positive PCR for Bacillus anthracis in blood from someone with no fever and no symptoms, I've got a bad test. By the time that test would be positive, the patient should be near death, and if it takes 90 minutes to run the test, they could easily be dead in the time between drawing the sample and getting the test results.

 

The data I've seen shows an incredibly low risk (but not zero) of recovering virus from vaccinated individuals, and the actual risk of transmission is probably even lower. I haven't seen (or looked for) data on actual transmission, or the recovery of viable virus. It's entirely likely the PCR picked up RNA from either non-viable virus, or virus at such a low titer that you wouldn't expect transmission. But you have policy that creates a lane for asymptomatic PCR positive individuals, even if vaccinated, and even if no one is sure what it means...

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23 minutes ago, Tee & Chilli said:

Did you experience mild symptoms? Glad you’re feeling better now and can schedule future cruises.

I never had any symptoms at all. I'm now scheduled for the July 25 first Equinox cruise. When

I booked it was cruise number 4. It's now the first scheduled Equinox cruise and I'm holding my breath that it happens.

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5 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

No. Sorry. We're into the intersection of science, policy, and like it or not, politics. 

 

Honestly, this isn't surprising. They're running an extremely sensitive and specific diagnostic test in what I'd consider a non-diagnostic mode. It essentially becomes a screening test, and screening tests should have false positives. Which doesn't mean that they didn't detect viral RNA on the PCR, the question is does it mean anything. Policy and politically, yes. Medically, if the individuals were vaccinated, probably not.

 

In a patient care setting, you'd correlate the signs and symptoms you're observing with your test results. It's an outrageous example, but it's the world I lived in for a long time. If I have a positive PCR for Bacillus anthracis in blood from someone with no fever and no symptoms, I've got a bad test. By the time that test would be positive, the patient should be near death, and if it takes 90 minutes to run the test, they could easily be dead in the time between drawing the sample and getting the test results.

 

The data I've seen shows an incredibly low risk (but not zero) of recovering virus from vaccinated individuals, and the actual risk of transmission is probably even lower. I haven't seen (or looked for) data on actual transmission, or the recovery of viable virus. It's entirely likely the PCR picked up RNA from either non-viable virus, or virus at such a low titer that you wouldn't expect transmission. But you have policy that creates a lane for asymptomatic PCR positive individuals, even if vaccinated, and even if no one is sure what it means...

I think and will try to corroborate, that an antigen test is what is required for US entry and what was going to be administered on board.

You are spot on about all these tests being used out of clinical context and the pitfalls of using them in that way - they were never designed for what we are asking them to do.

Cycles - don't matter if the tests are antigen tests. There is an international standard now (32 or 35, I can't quite remember) but every lab has to validated their own equipment and reagents to that standard, so one lab may have to run 33 cycles to get the same results as the standard's 32, while another may get the same results at 31 cycles.

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21 minutes ago, cruisingator2 said:


I don’t trust the rapid tests. Seems like too many issues with false positives.

the antigen tests do have a fairly consistent positive rate. That is why MSC used the rapid antigen test at the pier, but then did a confirming test using PCR for all positive results.

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Checked CDC order, they do not specify whether the test should be an antigen or PCR, it just says viral test.

Celeb Health and Safety Policy does say RT-PCR in under an hour and rapid SARS Co-V-2 tests, almost as if they are separate things. I'm not sure what the throughput of those new big Cobas tests are, but the rapid PCRs I'm familiar with are at least 45 minutes for a negative - positive in 15.

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1 hour ago, danv3 said:

Yes, it was the end of cruise test. 
 

One issue here is too much testing. There’s no need to test vaccinated people who aren’t showing any symptoms. 

Obviously not enough testing. 

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

My daughter had a false negative with the rapid test. 2 days later when she lost her taste and smell she went for the PCR test. Positive, of course. I do not trust the rapid tests either.

Rapid tests, especially the antigen test have a more narrow window of positivity than a PCR, so your daughter's experience is not at all unusual. They work great for diagnosing symptomatic persons quickly, especially useful when symptoms aren't classic or in office settings. A positive rapid antigen test may be more likely to indicate a person who can transmit the disease to others - PCRs are so sensitive, a positive test in someone who feels fine may mean that they are past Covid, or about to get Covid, without good history they can be misleading.

Edited by cangelmd
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I hope that everyone realizes that there will be cases on board ships. Even Richard Fain has stated that they will have cases onboard RCG ships. It’s all in how it’s handled. As long as the staff on board the Millie take care of the issues quickly then that’s all that can be expected. Hopefully we don’t have people going off the deep end. 

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37 minutes ago, TrulyBlonde said:

My daughter had a false negative with the rapid test. 2 days later when she lost her taste and smell she went for the PCR test. Positive, of course. I do not trust the rapid tests either.

Yes. He’s decided he will only do PCR from now on when possible. 

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3 minutes ago, cruisingator2 said:

I hope that everyone realizes that there will be cases on board ships. Even Richard Fain has stated that they will have cases onboard RCG ships. It’s all in how it’s handled. As long as the staff on board the Millie take care of the issues quickly then that’s all that can be expected. Hopefully we don’t have people going off the deep end. 

I think it’s already starting. Look how many people on this thread are already questioning whether the affected individuals had valid vaccine proof, with no evidence pointing in that direction.  Vaccines are not 100% protection. Tests are not 100% accurate. Presuming these folks stay non symptomatic, it’s lucky this is happening so fast. It will give us all real insight into how Celebrity will handle this.

 

Personally, as a fully vaccinated person I am less concerned about getting seriously ill on a ship, and more concerned about what would happen to me should I test positive. I don’t want to be stuck in a cabin for days, or in some type of uncomfortable quarantine on land and not able to get home.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

I think it’s already starting. Look how many people on this thread are already questioning whether the affected individuals had valid vaccine proof, with no evidence pointing in that direction.  Vaccines are not 100% protection. Tests are not 100% accurate. Presuming these folks stay non symptomatic, it’s lucky this is happening so fast. It will give us all real insight into how Celebrity will handle this.

 

Personally, as a fully vaccinated person I am less concerned about getting seriously ill on a ship, and more concerned about what would happen to me should I test positive. I don’t want to be stuck in a cabin for days, or in some type of uncomfortable quarantine on land and not able to get home.

Me too!

 

If only two people on the ship test positive, that’s a good thing!  It means everything they have put in place, including the vaccine requirements, are working. 

Edited by NCteacherlovescruising
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4 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

I think it’s already starting. Look how many people on this thread are already questioning whether the affected individuals had valid vaccine proof, with no evidence pointing in that direction.  Vaccines are not 100% protection. Tests are not 100% accurate. Presuming these folks stay non symptomatic, it’s lucky this is happening so fast. It will give us all real insight into how Celebrity will handle this.

 

Personally, as a fully vaccinated person I am less concerned about getting seriously ill on a ship, and more concerned about what would happen to me should I test positive. I don’t want to be stuck in a cabin for days, or in some type of uncomfortable quarantine on land and not able to get home.


Agree 100%.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, marieps said:

This has been bugging me for a while.  If I test positive but am asymptomatic, would it not be more proper to label my condition SARS-CoV-2 positive rather than COVID positive?  Just like the millions who've been HIV positive, but not suffering from AIDS.  The D in COVID stands for disease.  If I'm not sick, yet positive, where's the disease?  Please don't flame me....just asking.

Agree! As others have said, the terminology was bungled from the beginning. I often think, had it not been, there might now be greater understanding that the vaccine is against COVID-19, the disease. Since the majority of breakthroughs are asymptomatic, I think the right terminology might have cleared up a lot of confusion about vaccine efficacy, especially considering trial participants weren’t tested unless symptomatic.

Edited by syesmar
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36 minutes ago, rsail203 said:

It's now the first scheduled Equinox cruise and I'm holding my breath that it happens.

As long as you are holding your breath, you are not contagious and should be good to go!!

 

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39 minutes ago, cruiserchuck said:

The press release issued by RCI does not state whether the passengers were adults or children.  Maybe they were two unvaccinated children traveling with their patents/other relatives.

Ship was FULLY vaccinated.

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Just now, soup23 said:

A youtuber is on the ship with his unvaccinated daughter because she is below the age threshold. 

But it has been widely reported that the ship was fully vaccinated.   Sloppy press releases?  Misinformation?  We cannot trust the info we get!  "Fully" doesn't mean "fully except for ______."

 

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, soup23 said:

A youtuber is on the ship with his unvaccinated daughter because she is below the age threshold. 

Do you have the YT Channel link? Thanks!

Edited by syesmar
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4 minutes ago, leetchie69 said:

My take.

 

If these are the only 2 cases to come off the ship with COVID-19 after testing positive.....the vaccine is super effective.

I can only image an RC oasis class ship running with 9000 passengers and not everyone vaccinated.  This is like the beginning and its a vaccinated ship with 600 guests.  Scratching my head right now.

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12 minutes ago, syesmar said:

Do you have the YT Channel link? Thanks!

Unsure of the rules since they are a travel agent as well but just search First Cruise Back Celebrity Millennium and it will be the first results. 

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