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CDC definition of an outbreak on a cruise ship and more from the court case


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The judge did not seem pleased.

 

The hearing started with Judge Merryday calling out the state for making incorrect public statements about mediation. Last week, the Governor’s Office made comments that an impasse had been declared.

 

Judge Merryday said that is not true, and that mediation is ongoing. He asked the state how the incorrect statement was made, and how things got released to the public from within mediation. The state’s attorney said he believed it was a misunderstanding. Judge Merryday then made it clear that both sides have a right to confidentiality, and that if it happens again, he will investigate.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

The CDC defines “outbreak” onboard a cruise ship as a 1.5 percent positivity rate onboard.

 

https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/state/judge-to-make-decision-soon-in-floridas-lawsuit-against-cdc-over-cruise-lines

 

 

 

From article:

 

"One of the state’s main arguments was the CDC’s requirement of 95 percent vaccinations in order to avoid simulated cruises is not in line with President Biden’s goal of having 70 percent of adults vaccinated in order to reach herd immunity."

 

Talk about a false equivalence. He is in trouble if that's the best he's got. I'm sure the judge will see the two cases on the fully vaccinated cruise tonight on the news too. Won't play well for Desantis. 

Edited by cruisingguy007
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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

The CDC defines “outbreak” onboard a cruise ship as a 1.5 percent positivity rate onboard.

 

https://www.abcactionnews.com/news/state/judge-to-make-decision-soon-in-floridas-lawsuit-against-cdc-over-cruise-lines

 

 

 

This is actually great news for vaccinated cruises 1.5% (50-60 people per cruise) is a solid allowance on a 95% vaccinated cruise, it will be even better once the younger youngens can get vaccinated as well. I expect a case or two here and there with a lot of testing but hopefully they can reduce testing on vaccinated cruises. There is no need unless someone falls ill enough to need medical. 

Edited by cruisingguy007
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Posted (edited)

Patient 0 boarded the Diamond Princess on January 20, 2020.  It took over 2 weeks, until February 5 to get 10 positive cases.  Nobody on that ship was vaccinated.   

 

The chances of getting to 50 cases on a 7-day cruise, even completely unvaccinated, seems ridiculously low.

Edited by jfunk138
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46 minutes ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

This is actually great news for vaccinated cruises 1.5% (50-60 people per cruise) is a solid allowance on a 95% vaccinated cruise, it will be even better once the younger youngens can get vaccinated as well. I expect a case or two here and there with a lot of testing but hopefully they can reduce testing on vaccinated cruises. There is no need unless someone falls ill enough to need medical. 

I think the number would also include crew who should be fully vaccinated, but who knows with what. Social distancing is going to be tough down below.

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3 minutes ago, jfunk138 said:

Patient 0 boarded the Diamond Princess on January 20, 2020.  It took over 2 weeks, until February 5 to get 10 positive cases.  Nobody on that ship was vaccinated.   

 

The chances of getting to 50 cases on a 7-day cruise, even completely unvaccinated, seems ridiculously low.

Say what?

 

Among 3,711 Diamond Princess passengers and crew, 712 (19.2%) had positive test results for SARS-CoV-2 (Figure 1). Of these, 331 (46.5%) were asymptomatic at the time of testing. Among 381 symptomatic patients, 37 (9.7%) required intensive care, and nine (1.3%) died (8). Infections also occurred among three Japanese responders, including one nurse, one quarantine officer, and one administrative officer (9). As of March 13, among 428 U.S. passengers and crew, 107 (25.0%) had positive test results for COVID-19; 11 U.S. passengers remain hospitalized in Japan (median age = 75 years), including seven in serious condition (median age = 76 years).

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Just now, BlerkOne said:

I think the number would also include crew who should be fully vaccinated, but who knows with what. Social distancing is going to be tough down below.

 

That's even better! Should be zero cruises being ended on vaccinated cruises due to the threshold. That's plenty of cushion and very fair/reasonable IMO. This is fantastic news actually and should help the lines and passengers feel more comfortable that their cruises would continue if a few breakthrough cases show up or a few people fudge their paperwork and crap out or even worse, roll snake eyes.   

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The reason norovirus spreads so quickly on ships is because the incubation period is 12-24 hours.  Covid is 2-5 days.  On a 7-day cruise you are the short end of barely 2 infection cycles, assuming everyone incubated at the low end.   Getting to 50 cases would be exceedingly unlikely on a 7 day or less.

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https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm

Diamond Princess

On January 20, 2020, the Diamond Princess cruise ship departed Yokohama, Japan, carrying approximately 3,700 passengers and crew (Table). On January 25, a symptomatic passenger departed the ship in Hong Kong, where he was evaluated; testing confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. On February 3, the ship returned to Japan, after making six stops in three countries. Japanese authorities were notified of the COVID-19 diagnosis in the passenger who disembarked in Hong Kong, and the ship was quarantined. Information about social distancing and monitoring of symptoms was communicated to passengers. On February 5, passengers were quarantined in their cabins; crew continued to work and, therefore, could not be isolated in their cabins (6). Initially, travelers with fever or respiratory symptoms and their close contacts were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). All those with positive test results were disembarked and hospitalized. Testing was later expanded to support a phased disembarkation of passengers, prioritizing testing of older persons, those with underlying medical conditions, and those in internal cabins with no access to the outdoors. During February 16–23, nearly 1,000 persons were repatriated by air to their home countries, including 329 persons who returned to the United States and entered quarantine or isolation.§,

 

The remaining passengers who had negative SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test results,** no respiratory symptoms, and no close contact with a person with a confirmed case of COVID-19 completed a 14-day ship-based quarantine before disembarkation. Those passengers who had close contact with a person with a confirmed case completed land-based quarantine, with duration determined by date of last contact. After disembarkation of all passengers, crew members either completed a 14-day ship-based quarantine, were repatriated to and managed in their home country, or completed a 14-day land-based quarantine in Japan.

 

Overall, 111 (25.9%) of 428 U.S. citizens and legal residents did not join repatriation flights either because they had been hospitalized in Japan or for other reasons. To mitigate SARS-CoV-2 importation into the United States, CDC used temporary “Do Not Board” restrictions (7) to prevent commercial airline travel to the United States,†† and the U.S. Departments of State and Homeland Security restricted travel to the United States for non-U.S. travelers.

 

Among 3,711 Diamond Princess passengers and crew, 712 (19.2%) had positive test results for SARS-CoV-2 (Figure 1). Of these, 331 (46.5%) were asymptomatic at the time of testing. Among 381 symptomatic patients, 37 (9.7%) required intensive care, and nine (1.3%) died (8). Infections also occurred among three Japanese responders, including one nurse, one quarantine officer, and one administrative officer (9). As of March 13, among 428 U.S. passengers and crew, 107 (25.0%) had positive test results for COVID-19; 11 U.S. passengers remain hospitalized in Japan (median age = 75 years), including seven in serious condition (median age = 76 years).

 

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What is the incubation period of COVID-19?

Based on existing literature, the incubation period (the time from exposure to development of symptoms) of SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses (e.g., MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV) ranges from 2–14 days.
Mar 4, 2021

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On the Diamond Princess,  Patient 0 had developed a cough the day before he boarded, January 19, and was likely viral shedding profusely at boarding on January 20.

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3 minutes ago, jfunk138 said:

On the Diamond Princess,  Patient 0 had developed a cough the day before he boarded, January 19, and was likely viral shedding profusely at boarding on January 20.

and a sick person was put off the ship Jan 25. Someone doing that poorly likely wouldn't be jogging around the ship shedding virus.

 

The ship departed from Japan, mask wearing is common by Japanese even without a pandemic.

 

It makes sense for any cruise line to boot positive covid cases and to require masks.

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20 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

 

It makes sense for any cruise line to boot positive covid cases and to require masks.

 

I guess it does if you want to ensure the demise of cruising. Why would anyone sail if they risk being booted off the ship and have to wear a mask? What's the point of getting vaccinated then? 

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17 minutes ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

I guess it does if you want to ensure the demise of cruising. Why would anyone sail if they risk being booted off the ship and have to wear a mask? What's the point of getting vaccinated then? 

If you are vaccinated, there is no reason to be tested unless you start having symptoms. If you have covid and symptoms, you are going to be confined to a cabin, and probably not a balcony or higher. Would you prefer to be where a full service hospital is located or take your chances at sea?

 

Masks are not part of American culture (yet). They won't be as common on vaccinated cruises as on unvaccinated,

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

I guess it does if you want to ensure the demise of cruising. Why would anyone sail if they risk being booted off the ship and have to wear a mask? What's the point of getting vaccinated then? 

I remember just a few months back reading comments from folks on various social media sites about how they would gladly wear a mask if it meant that they could cruise. Now, masks are a resounding "no" for those who have been vaccinated.

 

As far as these two new Celebrity cases, I have a few questions:

 

1) How did they prove they were vaccinated?
2) Which vaccine did they receive?

3) How long ago did they receive the vaccine?

 

I find it odd that two vaccinated persons who were sharing a cabin both tested positive.

Edited by Keys2Heaven
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13 minutes ago, Lee Cruiser said:

Here is another take on the hearing today.  Like many stories, this one takes a little different slant.

 

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/06/10/judge-grills-cdc-on-florida-cruise-restrictions-in-hearing-over-desantis-lawsuit/

The judge apparently questioned the CDC about mask effectiveness and the Diamond Princess stats being before ships knew about handling the virus. 

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6 minutes ago, Lee Cruiser said:

The judge apparently questioned the CDC about mask effectiveness and the Diamond Princess stats being before ships knew about handling the virus. 

I do have to wonder about that judge. The passengers were confined to their cabins for part of the cruise. 

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5 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

 

2 hours ago, Lee Cruiser said:

Here is another take on the hearing today.  Like many stories, this one takes a little different slant.

 

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2021/06/10/judge-grills-cdc-on-florida-cruise-restrictions-in-hearing-over-desantis-lawsuit/

 

Wow!  One of these is distinctly more pro-Florida than the other.

 

Captain John Murray had a couple of quotes from the Tampa Bay Times article that I'd like to highlight here:

 

He did say, however, that unvaccinated passengers, who create extra costs for cruise lines because of extra testing, should have to foot the bill. That could encourage more people to get shots before getting onboard, he said. Murray declined to weigh in on the new Florida law preventing cruise companies from requiring passengers to provide proof they’ve been vaccinated prior to boarding.

 

First of all, the "maximum pain for the unvaccinated" policy that Royal seems to be pursuing has an ally.  And second, it's probably wise not to anger the head guy in Tallahassee more than necessary, since he'll have to deal with him for all sorts of things for the next year and a half, at least.

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To me, it seems that the judge is diving deep into the science of the issue, and may very well rule that while the CDC does have the authority to regulate the cruise industry, the CSO is too restrictive, and order that the CDC develop a new set of requirements, which may require him giving a time frame of a month or two to come up with the new plan, and to halt cruises until the new plan is developed, and this could backfire on DeSantis' hope to get cruises started early, and cruisers' hopes for this as well.

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6 hours ago, Honolulu Blue said:

 

 

Wow!  One of these is distinctly more pro-Florida than the other.

 

Captain John Murray had a couple of quotes from the Tampa Bay Times article that I'd like to highlight here:

 

He did say, however, that unvaccinated passengers, who create extra costs for cruise lines because of extra testing, should have to foot the bill. That could encourage more people to get shots before getting onboard, he said. Murray declined to weigh in on the new Florida law preventing cruise companies from requiring passengers to provide proof they’ve been vaccinated prior to boarding.

 

First of all, the "maximum pain for the unvaccinated" policy that Royal seems to be pursuing has an ally. 

I noticed that quote as well. I'm wondering if that will be the approach of Carnival, paying more thus giving folks a reason to get the shot.

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1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

To me, it seems that the judge is diving deep into the science of the issue, and may very well rule that while the CDC does have the authority to regulate the cruise industry, the CSO is too restrictive, and order that the CDC develop a new set of requirements, which may require him giving a time frame of a month or two to come up with the new plan, and to halt cruises until the new plan is developed, and this could backfire on DeSantis' hope to get cruises started early, and cruisers' hopes for this as well.

I think it is very unlikely that he will put a further halt to cruises, even if he does require them to lessen the restrictions.

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4 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

To me, it seems that the judge is diving deep into the science of the issue, and may very well rule that while the CDC does have the authority to regulate the cruise industry, the CSO is too restrictive, and order that the CDC develop a new set of requirements, which may require him giving a time frame of a month or two to come up with the new plan, and to halt cruises until the new plan is developed, and this could backfire on DeSantis' hope to get cruises started early, and cruisers' hopes for this as well.

I can't see more interference with cruising. Cruise plans are mostly set through August; some into September. I can see him giving the CDC time to justify the existing plan or come up with a modified one. If the CSO is tossed, so is the Alaska season.

 

That gives time to collect some actual data from US based cruises. It is easier to relax standards later, than to try to tighten up later, and you want the restart to be successful.

 

Plus it is time to see how the new variants play out in the US as well as see if there are any early signs of an expected fall spike.

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9 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

I can't see more interference with cruising. Cruise plans are mostly set through August; some into September. I can see him giving the CDC time to justify the existing plan or come up with a modified one. If the CSO is tossed, so is the Alaska season.

 

That gives time to collect some actual data from US based cruises. It is easier to relax standards later, than to try to tighten up later, and you want the restart to be successful.

 

Plus it is time to see how the new variants play out in the US as well as see if there are any early signs of an expected fall spike.

Well, unless the judge wants to dive into the epidemiology to the point of determining which aspects of the CSO are too restrictive, and which are not, I see him saying to the CDC "come up with something that is less restrictive, maybe work with the cruise industry, and until then, the CSO stands", and so cruising would start up under the CSO.  However, he may rule that by tossing the CSO, there are no requirements for protecting the public health at this time, so cruising should not start until the CDC comes up with a new plan.  I think my first outcome is the most likely, especially as the CDC is moving towards less requirements in the CSO all the time.  But, as I've said before, I believe that aspects of the CSO, like the port and service agreements/contracts, will become a permanent part of the VSP, and part of cruising in the future.  Even such things as requiring masks for the remainder of a cruise if a person comes down with something that is airborne, may become a permanent "emergency procedure" or "mitigation measure".

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