Future cruises being sold to full capacity

[Iamcruzin]

6 hours ago, BonTexasNY said:

You're reading my mind!  We eat an early breakfast, scoot up to the pool deck, take two lounges at the end of a line so that we can maneuver them a bit away from the 3rd chair and YES we sit in them right away. I don't have to be in prime pool real estate but it seems all rows of lounges are placed touching each other. 

I hope we don't sail on the same cruise because we will be fighting over the same spot since we do the same thing. We even sit on the sundeck above the pool. On Anthem there was a spot which only had 3 chairs across a small section up against the railing along side the ocean. 

[CruisingRealtor2018]

So I guess I should clarify why I’m asking I booked a grand suite and all suites are showing sold out… I’m asking because I’m hoping I will be able to upgrade prior to cruise if a better suite is actually available due to limiting sales currently.

[Blizzard54]

It may also depend on where they homeport and where they are going.  North America will probably be at full capacity before some other areas.  At this point Australia may not even open for any cruising until June of 2022.  I will enjoy limited capacity while I can and just see what happens.

[Teeara]

21 hours ago, Iamcruzin said:

I wish social distancing became a Federal and Maritime law.  No more cramped dining rooms or sitting shoulder to shoulder on deck. 

Sounds like my commuter rail experience into Boston.  I've been back to work since September last year and it has been soooooo nice to not have people sitting next to you or standing over you or having to wait in a long line to leave the parking lot or catching someone's kid's cooties that they brought on the train or.....

[rjrpar]

21 hours ago, Iamcruzin said:

I wish social distancing became a Federal and Maritime law.  No more cramped dining rooms or sitting shoulder to shoulder on deck. 

You can always move to the luxury lines where spacing is more like you would prefer.  Or you could even charter a private yacht.  Remember,  you get what you pay for.

[Iamcruzin]

9 minutes ago, Teeara said:

Sounds like my commuter rail experience into Boston.  I've been back to work since September last year and it has been soooooo nice to not have people sitting next to you or standing over you or having to wait in a long line to leave the parking lot or catching someone's kid's cooties that they brought on the train or.....

  Same thing in NYC. You can still get a seat on the bus during rush hour. 

[graphicguy]

If the cruise lines have come out of this with ANY information, I think it’s that overcrowding, even the largest of their ships, isn’t going to be a thing they can do…maybe ever again.

 

As far as the new ships on the horizon, even before COVID, the likes of Royal were looking at smaller ships as the newest under construction…NCL, too (although I question their actual survival at this point).

 

Any “stuffing” of cruise ships with crew/passengers will now have to contend with the contingency of what happens when/if COVID, NORO, or any other sort of virus breaks out and the steps they’ll have to take to combat such an event.  Cruise ships were all kept very clean to begin with.  Now, they’ll be scrubbed, sanitized and cleaned to within an inch of their lives.  Protocols for passengers and crew will change, too.  I don’t see the self serve buffets coming back.  I’m thinking there are probably more enhanced safety measures will be enacted for EVERYONE.

 

Pricing?  The open market will prevail.  But, there was no lack of ships, routes, or sailings before COVID.  Unless one (or more) of them go under (NCL?), that’s not going to change.  It’s hard to convert a cruise ship into anything else, other than a cruise ship.  So, competition will keep prices within reason.  HIgh prices can’t be supported forever.  Given the choice of leaving a ship(s) empty, or sailing with reduced pricing, they’ll take the latter.

 

I still don’t see full capacity sailings (if there ever will be such a thing again) until next year.

Edited June 25, 2021 by graphicguy

[Itchy&Scratchy]

19 hours ago, xpcdoojk said:

Say goodbye to the giant ships.  There is no way they can be profitable at the affordable rates they are currently charging.

 

 

what affordable rates? RCI's rates have become far from affordable (in my definition, of course).

 

For example: last year we were supposed to be on Indy. $1,600 for all 3 of us (KSF), interior. L&S to Harmony this year. I am checking prices on Harmony and they are now $1,600 PP for an interior room for my cruise, and it's almost sold out (whatever the capacity for a November cruise is).

I kept checking prices for next year, and they are so damn high, that I booked MSC Seashore and Enchanted Princess instead.  MSC Seashore is 7 night, $1,800 for 3 of us, interior, drinks and WIFI included, and Enchanted Princess is 10 nights, $2,500 for 3 of us, interior. RCI's cruises for the same dates are way over $3,500 for 3 of us. These are school break times (so, spring break and Thanksgiving).

Edited June 25, 2021 by Itchy&Scratchy

[Biker19]

28 minutes ago, graphicguy said:

the likes of Royal were looking at smaller ships as the newest under construction

While Icon of the Seas may be slightly smaller than Oasis class, her planned passenger count will be pretty close to that. I suppose the definition of smaller is subjective. 

[boscobeans]

17 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

While Icon of the Seas may be slightly smaller than Oasis class, her planned passenger count will be pretty close to that. I suppose the definition of smaller is subjective. 

CORRECT. Very subjective. 

Small would be to us, capable of porting in Baltimore, St. Georges, Hamilton and any number of smaller ports from the days gone by.

To others the Quantum class ships are too small..

[S.A.M.J.R.]

1 hour ago, graphicguy said:

If the cruise lines have come out of this with ANY information, I think it’s that overcrowding, even the largest of their ships, isn’t going to be a thing they can do…maybe ever again.

 

As far as the new ships on the horizon, even before COVID, the likes of Royal were looking at smaller ships as the newest under construction…NCL, too (although I question their actual survival at this point).

 

Any “stuffing” of cruise ships with crew/passengers will now have to contend with the contingency of what happens when/if COVID, NORO, or any other sort of virus breaks out and the steps they’ll have to take to combat such an event.  Cruise ships were all kept very clean to begin with.  Now, they’ll be scrubbed, sanitized and cleaned to within an inch of their lives.  Protocols for passengers and crew will change, too.  I don’t see the self serve buffets coming back.  I’m thinking there are probably more enhanced safety measures will be enacted for EVERYONE.

 

Pricing?  The open market will prevail.  But, there was no lack of ships, routes, or sailings before COVID.  Unless one (or more) of them go under (NCL?), that’s not going to change.  It’s hard to convert a cruise ship into anything else, other than a cruise ship.  So, competition will keep prices within reason.  HIgh prices can’t be supported forever.  Given the choice of leaving a ship(s) empty, or sailing with reduced pricing, they’ll take the latter.

 

I still don’t see full capacity sailings (if there ever will be such a thing again) until next year.

Open market will prevail?  Not so sure about that.  Any cruise line will need to make $x/sailing of a given ship in order to stay in business.  That's a fact.  If you reduce how many people can be on a ship, sure you can keep prices low (relatively) for a short time, but if you do it long term, you can't afford to send that ship out (it costs more to sail than you bring in).  If that happens, the company goes out of business.  

 

As far as people willing to pay more, they'll be there.  

[Iamcruzin]

7 minutes ago, S.A.M.J.R. said:

 

As far as people willing to pay more, they'll be there.  

I agree. Look at the people who are will to spend $1600 for a few hours in a cabana. In the end it will all boil down to supply and demand. As more ships come back to service and more ports open up there may be more supply than demand. There are so many of us on CC who won't sail if a mask is required. I can't imagine how those are new to cruising or were reluctant to cruise will respond once we get to full capacity with all ships sailing and no capacity limits.

[graphicguy]

14 minutes ago, S.A.M.J.R. said:

Open market will prevail?  Not so sure about that.  Any cruise line will need to make $x/sailing of a given ship in order to stay in business.  That's a fact.  If you reduce how many people can be on a ship, sure you can keep prices low (relatively) for a short time, but if you do it long term, you can't afford to send that ship out (it costs more to sail than you bring in).  If that happens, the company goes out of business.  

 

As far as people willing to pay more, they'll be there.  

Maybe...but there is a lot of similar/same routes cruise lines take, all over the world.  Just one example, I have seen 4-5-6 cruise ships all docked in Miami or Bahamas, all at the same time, different cruise companies, cruising the same routes and ports.  

 

Competition is fierce.  The differences between the cruise experiences between all of them is becoming less and less.   One offers a rock wall, the others offer a rock wall.  One offers a large water slide, the others offer a large water slide.  One offers drink package, the others offer a drink package.  Point being, they're all more similar than they are different.

 

One raises prices, the others will be more than happy to undercut them to get the others' customers.

 

They'll readjust routes, renegotiate food and drink contracts, etc.  But, the days of packed cruises where everyone is shoulder to shoulder at the pools, or wholesale price increases are implemented, safety protocols, and the free market will regulate that more than the cruise lines.

 

There are cruise ships under contract that the cruise lines are obligated to take.  But, I suspect anything planned but not under contract will either be pushed out, cancelled, or reduced in size and scope, for perhaps the next decade.

[BonTexasNY]

12 hours ago, Iamcruzin said:

I hope we don't sail on the same cruise because we will be fighting over the same spot since we do the same thing. We even sit on the sundeck above the pool. On Anthem there was a spot which only had 3 chairs across a small section up against the railing along side the ocean. 

So you understand!! We can each grab both "end of row" chairs.

 

We tried sitting on the deck above the pool but it's so windy up there and no shade.  

 

My favorite class of ship is Voyager because of the ice rink/promenade.  Having said that, we loved the size of the Rhapsody.  Was on Liberty a few times and to me it was Voyager on steroids and more crowded.  We have our first Oasis cruise in 2023 so we shall see what we think of the big girls.  Most love them.

 

[S.A.M.J.R.]

2 hours ago, graphicguy said:

Maybe...but there is a lot of similar/same routes cruise lines take, all over the world.  Just one example, I have seen 4-5-6 cruise ships all docked in Miami or Bahamas, all at the same time, different cruise companies, cruising the same routes and ports.  

 

Competition is fierce.  The differences between the cruise experiences between all of them is becoming less and less.   One offers a rock wall, the others offer a rock wall.  One offers a large water slide, the others offer a large water slide.  One offers drink package, the others offer a drink package.  Point being, they're all more similar than they are different.

 

One raises prices, the others will be more than happy to undercut them to get the others' customers.

 

They'll readjust routes, renegotiate food and drink contracts, etc.  But, the days of packed cruises where everyone is shoulder to shoulder at the pools, or wholesale price increases are implemented, safety protocols, and the free market will regulate that more than the cruise lines.

 

There are cruise ships under contract that the cruise lines are obligated to take.  But, I suspect anything planned but not under contract will either be pushed out, cancelled, or reduced in size and scope, for perhaps the next decade.

The bottom line is there are fewer berths.  They (any cruise line) needs to make a certain dollar amount on a cruise to be profitable.  It doesn't matter how many competitors there are.  They won't be able to sustain 50% or less capacity for a long time.  

[graphicguy]

1 hour ago, S.A.M.J.R. said:

The bottom line is there are fewer berths.  They (any cruise line) needs to make a certain dollar amount on a cruise to be profitable.  It doesn't matter how many competitors there are.  They won't be able to sustain 50% or less capacity for a long time.  

I do agree with that.  I also think that just to get revenue flowing and to build some momentum and trust in the cruise market, they'll take what they can get.

 

But, as you say, you can't sustain that level of revenue at 50% capacity if they're set up to be profitable at 75%-85%-100% capacity.  At some point, the loan holders, the bond holders, the banks, the private equity firms, etc...whoever is holding their debt, is going to want an ROI.  Personally, I think that's not going to be next month, next quarter, and certainly not this year, but probably 2-3 years down the road.

 

As such, Im guessing the cruise lines may try to recoup some revenue by raising prices.  But, with as much competition there is among them, they won't be able to push that too far, as they are all competing for the same passengers, who are sailing to the same ports, are are all aware of the fares each line is charging.

 

I know I've been shopping cruises and fares on an almost daily basis (as is shown by my nearly daily posts here).  I can say that there's not a more astute and knowledgeable group of leisure travel consumers as there are within the cruise industry. 

[Ozark_Kid]

While they limit capacity they could make more money by selling more suites and balcony rooms and less inside and ocean view rooms.  While looking at some of the cruises offered right now I wondered if that was happening. On some you will see inside rooms sold out with several other rooms available.

[AF-1]

14 hours ago, CruisingRealtor2018 said:

So I guess I should clarify why I’m asking I booked a grand suite and all suites are showing sold out… I’m asking because I’m hoping I will be able to upgrade prior to cruise if a better suite is actually available due to limiting sales currently.

I'm thinking more people are booking suites because of what happened to Diamond Princess in Japan.  people were not allowed out of their cabin for days.  Those who were in interior rooms were living in solitary; so that is why suites are selling quite well

[Blizzard54]

I can understand why the pricing for the next year+ has been on the high side.  With some uncertainty of capacity levels it make some sense.  As capacity rises there will likely be some softening.  It is quite likely that it may not happen until after payment so that they do not need to lower prices for existing bookings.  

[S.A.M.J.R.]

We just booked Mariner for next July.  According to one of the TA's we were getting quotes from,

 

SUMMER 2023 is already at 80% full capacity so we suggest making a decision early rather than later in order to avoid room categories being unavailable or price increase.

 

I'm assuming she means 2022.

 

Edited June 25, 2021 by S.A.M.J.R.

[rtazz17]

On 6/24/2021 at 10:44 AM, Iamcruzin said:

I wish social distancing became a Federal and Maritime law.  No more cramped dining rooms or sitting shoulder to shoulder on deck. 

Just wow. I cant believe how you could say that. Why dont you buy a yacht and sail by yourself? Seriously,I dont get these type of posts. Its like people want to be hermits. Cruising is for socially active people. Smh

[rtazz17]

7 hours ago, graphicguy said:

If the cruise lines have come out of this with ANY information, I think it’s that overcrowding, even the largest of their ships, isn’t going to be a thing they can do…maybe ever again.

 

As far as the new ships on the horizon, even before COVID, the likes of Royal were looking at smaller ships as the newest under construction…NCL, too (although I question their actual survival at this point).

 

Any “stuffing” of cruise ships with crew/passengers will now have to contend with the contingency of what happens when/if COVID, NORO, or any other sort of virus breaks out and the steps they’ll have to take to combat such an event.  Cruise ships were all kept very clean to begin with.  Now, they’ll be scrubbed, sanitized and cleaned to within an inch of their lives.  Protocols for passengers and crew will change, too.  I don’t see the self serve buffets coming back.  I’m thinking there are probably more enhanced safety measures will be enacted for EVERYONE.

 

Pricing?  The open market will prevail.  But, there was no lack of ships, routes, or sailings before COVID.  Unless one (or more) of them go under (NCL?), that’s not going to change.  It’s hard to convert a cruise ship into anything else, other than a cruise ship.  So, competition will keep prices within reason.  HIgh prices can’t be supported forever.  Given the choice of leaving a ship(s) empty, or sailing with reduced pricing, they’ll take the latter.

 

I still don’t see full capacity sailings (if there ever will be such a thing again) until next year.

There will be full capacity again. Covid 19 will be completely forgotten in a short amount of time. People have short memories. This wasnt the first pandemic. We know that speeds on the highway over 55 ramp up deaths considerably yet speed limit is 65-80. Things wont change long term. Short term slightly but is changing back closer to normal daily. 

[sfaaa]

4 minutes ago, rtazz17 said:

There will be full capacity again. Covid 19 will be completely forgotten in a short amount of time. People have short memories.

Remember Zika virus from a few years back? No one cares or talks about it these days.

[Blizzard54]

1 hour ago, S.A.M.J.R. said:

We just booked Mariner for next July.  According to one of the TA's we were getting quotes from,

 

SUMMER 2023 is already at 80% full capacity so we suggest making a decision early rather than later in order to avoid room categories being unavailable or price increase.

 

I'm assuming she means 2022.

 

Either way at least half of that is probably cabins being held as group space by TA's that is not actually sold.

[AKJonesy]

When I read these posts, I realize that all of the "I wish they would limit X" means that there are people that are not ready to resume cruising.  The cruise lines are doing everything they can to make cruising safe, but realize at the same time that COVID is still here, and may be here for a long time.  We don't know.  Some of us are ready to sail and don't care if the ships are full, don't care if we have to sit next to someone in MDR, sit next to someone in the pool or hot tub.  We have to travel on airplanes sitting a whole lot closer to people for hours.  We have to walk through airports and stay in hotels and transfer on shuttles.   We have enough laws that limit our freedoms already.  There is a simple solution for those who might be uncomfortable about the ship scaling up to full capacity; book a cruise that has a small number of passengers, choose a different vacation that will fit into your restrictions or stay home.  It really is that simple.