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Is it time to buy Carnival stock?


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Last year I bought 1100 NCLH and 1100 CCL. When I had enough gains to offset 100 shares I sold 1000 shares of each so I view myself as owning the 100 shares "free & clear". As long as they will keep offering cruise credit for owning 100 shares I won't ever sell. I did not do this with RCL because 1100 shares of RCL was more of a gamble then I wanted to take at that moment in time but it also would have worked out brilliantly. 

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I'm taking a wait and see approach to any more stock purchases right now.  This delta Covid mutation is spreading like crazy, mostly among people who haven't been vaccinated but also to a small extent among the vaccinated.  The number of cases in Florida, for instance, doubled last week.  There are some hotspot locations where hospitals are again running out of capacity again, so this virus isn't done with us yet.  

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Its trading as if bankruptcy is back on the table. We know these first cruises  arent profitable. Who hasnt seen the many many casino deals at give away prices to fill the ships. Add in many have 600 obc which is the profit margin. No way these cruises are turning a profit, just restarting.

 

I used to see posts from those who act like dropping the dividend and issuing secondarys means nothing, shares worth the same as before, sure it might rise back to 40 .. in their dreams near term.

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1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

Its trading as if bankruptcy is back on the table. We know these first cruises  arent profitable. Who hasnt seen the many many casino deals at give away prices to fill the ships. Add in many have 600 obc which is the profit margin. No way these cruises are turning a profit, just restarting.

 

I used to see posts from those who act like dropping the dividend and issuing secondarys means nothing, shares worth the same as before, sure it might rise back to 40 .. in their dreams near term.

I think the question will become "if" they keep the shareholder credit as it is right now.  

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12 minutes ago, silversneakers said:

I think the question will become "if" they keep the shareholder credit as it is right now.  

That's the least of their worries. Not easy to hire crew, train, vaccinate. Food costs increasing. All,that free obc. 100 obc is nothing vs the 500 free play casino offers on top of the 600 canc obc.

 

I also see better deals to book non casino, prices are soft.

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1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

Its trading as if bankruptcy is back on the table. We know these first cruises  arent profitable. Who hasnt seen the many many casino deals at give away prices to fill the ships. Add in many have 600 obc which is the profit margin. No way these cruises are turning a profit, just restarting.

 

I used to see posts from those who act like dropping the dividend and issuing secondarys means nothing, shares worth the same as before, sure it might rise back to 40 .. in their dreams near term.

 

Could be a very long time, that debt is no joke. If covid disappeared tomorrow it would still take a decade or more to pay down everything. As it stands now, cruising is tenuously resuming. Any complications, shutdowns, or a large drop in consumer confidence and restructuring starts to look like an option for some lines. Dragging out the inevitable or pretending that insurmountable debt is a reasonable risk is just prolonging the pain. Though I'll admit, restructuring too early (before industry viability is certain) is also a foolish move. They're doing as best as they can do right now under the current circumstances.  

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Futures are really ugly for tomorrow's open. Of course they could change by open but they are steadily dropping since they started to trade.

 

Down about 190 pts down futures. Ccl is a dow stock. Just watching, it's how I am.

20210718_203758352.jpeg

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21 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Futures are really ugly for tomorrow's open. Of course they could change by open but they are steadily dropping since they started to trade.

 

Down about 190 pts down futures. Ccl is a dow stock. Just watching, it's how I am.

 

 

CCL is not a DOW 30 stock.

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2 minutes ago, CarelessAndConfused said:

 

CCL is not a DOW 30 stock.

I said a dow stock, I didnt say it was a dow 30 stock, not hardly.

 

Those futures do say something about how we will open though even if we dont track that index. 

 

Lol arguing with me about if I meant but didnt say something lol. Crazy posters.

 

Actually didnt moderna just join that index? I saw something where they joined a new index and got a bump. Ccl isnt going to be a top stock of any index for a long time. I dont own them, just saw a blip about them. 

 

If you have something to add have at it. Let's talk stocks, not argue. 

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6 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I said a dow stock, I didnt say it was a dow 30 stock, not hardly.

 

Those futures do say something about how we will open though even if we dont track that index. 

 

Lol arguing with me about if I meant but didnt say something lol. Crazy posters.

 

Actually didnt moderna just join that index? I saw something where they joined a new index and got a bump. Ccl isnt going to be a top stock of any index for a long time. I dont own them, just saw a blip about them. 

 

If you have something to add have at it. Let's talk stocks, not argue. 

 

Well considering you're showing the Dow 30 chart in the same line talking about Dow 30 futures and saying that CCL is a DOW stock, you can see how someone might easily interpret that another way.

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1 minute ago, CarelessAndConfused said:

 

Well considering you're showing the Dow 30 chart in the same line talking about Dow 30 futures and saying that CCL is a DOW stock, you can see how someone might easily interpret that another way.

I'm more interested in what people think will be the bottom. Will it test 20.0 and hold? Often I find big round numbers a lot of traders will be watching, it's a harder number to break below. 

 

The chart and dow 30 futures are on the same page, the other site i used stopped showing futures so I googled and this helps, even if its dow30 to read tea leaves for tomorrow. I live off my stocks. It's a big deal to me to think about things ahead of time, but I also love to talk stocks and charts and all that. I love watching the stock market. Right now unless some good news hits the market so far is in a continuation of fridays ugly mood. 

 

Well good  night and see you in the morning. 

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Here's my opinion.  I think it sees single digits sometime in the future.  Who knows if I'll be right, but the fundamentals look awful and all of these companies are still in potential bankruptcy territory even as we get things back to "normal". 

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Let me further add that in the mere 60+ years that the S&P 500 has existed, less than 100 of those companies remain today.  The remaining 400 has turned over more than once.   Some of them were indeed bought or merged as solid companies looking to strategically grow.  However, the vast majority have been run out or gone bankrupt of merged or acquired for pennies on the dollar. 

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I just looked it up and for those that want "professional" opinions, the current analyst recommendations are as follows:

 

0 - Buy

7 - Hold

1 - Underweight

5 - Sell

 

There's a huge school of thought that a "hold" means at least a mild selling recommendation.

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36 minutes ago, CarelessAndConfused said:

Here's my opinion.  I think it sees single digits sometime in the future.  Who knows if I'll be right, but the fundamentals look awful and all of these companies are still in potential bankruptcy territory even as we get things back to "normal". 

 

I saw a few of those buy and dump recommendations today and unfortunately, Carnival made the dump list on a few. The covid numbers will definitely drag down travel in general. Even vaccinated folks are becoming apprehensive with all the stories of fully vaccinated folks catching the delta variant and testing positive. Calling it a panic is a bit of a misnomer IMO as most of these are mild or low grade but I can understand people being apprehensive and not wanting to take chances.

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1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

I said a dow stock, I didnt say it was a dow 30 stock, not hardly.

I'm as confused as the next guy.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted measurement stock market index of 30 companies and is also know as Dow Jones, or simply the Dow.  How are you differentiating "Dow 30 stocks" and "Dow stocks"?  Did you mean S&P stocks?

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Ok its listed on the NYSE, semantics at this point. As I said it's being dumped looks like in computer trading.  I was turned negative on ccl when it started to run up what I considered too high last dec and took a lot of grief about being negative on ccl at that price. Now I'm wondering if it will test and hold 20. 

 

The market still looks in a ugly mood today, could this be the start of a sell off? Idk. Wash out weak hands and find some support. The debt and everything else is a tough ride ahead for ccl. Just glad cruises restarted for carnival but there is hal and princess and on and on, but it's a start. Chart wise it was trading buy on the dips and not trading at support levels just wandering around chart wise.

 

Some people were trading all travel stocks as a basket and cruising is different than hotels and airlines. Maybe they woke up.

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I bought back in at 22 a few days ago.  Obviously that wasn't the bottom.  It's a small portion of my IRA.  I have at least three Carnival Corp. cruises coming up in the next year.  A 14% yield isn't half bad these days.  Whatever way the stock goes I think I'll do all right.

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In the world of Dogecoin and AMC investments, some people are overthinking this. The most important thing is that they are sailing again. This alone is enough for me to be interested in $20 shares. I'm kicking myself for not buying it at $8 when the market crashed. The removal of many Fantasy class ships and the arrival of the Excel class should also be interesting. Mardi Gras is a HUGE area of interest for the company.

 

In the long-term, the vaccination requirement is bad for their stock price, no matter your view on vaccination. Right now it shouldn't be an issue. I suspect it will quietly go away once it does.

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9 hours ago, CarelessAndConfused said:

Here's my opinion.  I think it sees single digits sometime in the future.  Who knows if I'll be right, but the fundamentals look awful and all of these companies are still in potential bankruptcy territory even as we get things back to "normal". 

Since no one can accurately call the bottom or top of any stock, nor pick bankruptcy off market activity---remember WANG--if you are buying to just secure OBC, your timing should be within the bounds of the deadline you need to claim ownership before your cruise.  If you're buying for long term holdings,  do a lot of fundamental research and then go ahead if you foresee a rise to the level you think the stock will reach.  If you're just trading, beware the great humiliator the market can be on trading models.  

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