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September discussions for disturbances


PelicanBill
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5 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

When have you ever seen a hurricane headline like this?

 

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And in Greenland!  Given the melting of the glaciers that has been taking place in Greenland in recent years, the several feet of snow is welcomed.  

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I was away yesterday but the tropics won't allow me a break!

And Cruise Critic is being cranky and won't allow me to add a picture right now.

 

So the Caribbean disturbance is now Tropical Storm Nicholas and going to drop a lot of water on southeast Texas including Galveston and Houston.  That might cause issues for a couple cruise itineraries. 

 

A new disturbance has a 60% chance to develop north of the Bahamas and head toward the mid-Atlantic coast, but probably stay offshore.

 

A new wave coming off Africa has an 80% chance, and if conditions stay favorite it will threaten the islands later in the week.

 

 

 

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Well Cruise Critic seems more cooperative today.

 

These are at 60% and 90% respectively. The red one is 95L and quite possible to reach Category 2 strength and sustain as a storm all the way to the islands so need to watch carefully. The question will be if any upper-level low and dry air circulation develops that would tear it apart. 

 

The orange one has no model runs yet so I have nothing to look at.

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Tracking several disturbances. 70% near the coast could be an issue for areas already soaked (just as the south is experiencing now).  The new yellow is 20% chance, but the one to watch is that 90% heading steady toward the islands.

 

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Big change today!

Odette formed.  The one that seemed likely, then less likely, is likely again to be Paul soon at 90%.

And there's the orange one at 40% but not much threat there.  

Odette is expected to head east-northeast and won't be much of an issue.

Soon-to-be-Paul will skirt the islands and recurve, and could be an issue for Bermuda, but not forecast to gain much strength.

 

Odette could delay Breakway's much anticipated arrival to New York City (tomorrow). She is probably diverting more south on her route and could need an extra day or two.

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Tropical storm Rose formed, but is in the middle of nowhere and not very strong, so I am not creating a separate thread. Odd disturbance in the north Atlantic with 30% chance. And another following exactly as Peter did, 70% chance over 5 days, so we will be watching this one most carefully.

 

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53 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

Tropical storm Rose formed, but is in the middle of nowhere and not very strong, so I am not creating a separate thread. Odd disturbance in the north Atlantic with 30% chance. And another following exactly as Peter did, 70% chance over 5 days, so we will be watching this one most carefully.

 

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Is the odd yellow one a nor'easter?  Thanks Pelican Bill!

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3 hours ago, ninjacat123 said:

Is the odd yellow one a nor'easter?  Thanks Pelican Bill!

It's nothing so far!  It is actually the remnants of Odette which may regain strength when it reaches warmer gulf stream water - further away from the coast.

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The northern disturbance (remnants of Odette) is in a race to re-form before conditions get hostile late in the week. It has only a 40% chance over 5 days.  The other one, however, is up to 90% chance in 5 days and the lesser Antilles need to prepare.  The path is looking to be just like Peter and curve NNW and miss the islands, we hope, but intensity is looking stronger than Peter, predicted to be Category 1 eventually.

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Oh boy the Atlantic is busy. Other than Sam, a growing threat, the remnants of Odette are fading (northern yellow) but a new disturbance is aimed at Maine and Labrador... 40%. and a new one coming off Africa at 40%.

 

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Now they are 50%, 80%, 80%. Going to be studying conditions for the one just below Sam, as the path is aimed much more toward the islands than the last few which deflected to the NE.

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That 90% disturbance has become Tropical Storm Victor, which is headed into a vast area of ocean with nothing.... so I won't open a new thread for this one, we'll track it here (and in tomorrow's October continuation, which I will link here.)

 

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I'm on MG this Saturday and watching weather in Cozumel and Roatan.  Looks like 40-60% chance of thunderstorms starting Monday🙃.  Is this part of a storm or just typical unpredictable tropical weather?  Thanks Pelican Bill!

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21 hours ago, ninjacat123 said:

I'm on MG this Saturday and watching weather in Cozumel and Roatan.  Looks like 40-60% chance of thunderstorms starting Monday🙃.  Is this part of a storm or just typical unpredictable tropical weather?  Thanks Pelican Bill!

Nothing being tracked by NOAA/NHC so just a front or normal daytime heating causing some storms. Have fun!

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