Carnival Cruise stock

[bamaone]

Trading below $16 again. Considering the new ships added and a covid pause, things should start improving for Carnival. (if WW3 is avoided)

Think I'll pick up some for an investment. 

[TravelBluebird]

Yes, the big worry now is fuel prices; not just cost of running the ships, but also everything in the supply chain going to be even more costly due to price of moving goods (which is why I assume the stock price went down today).

 

Ugh, just when the cruise industry and Carnival was coming out from under the pandemic.

[TNcruising02]

It sure does look like things will get worse before they get better, for entirely different reasons now.  I think the cruise ships are beginning to sail at near capacity.  They will probably be forced to increase prices now.  Maybe some of the mandates will go away so that cruising will be a good option for more people.

Edited March 7, 2022 by TNcruising02

[no1racefan1]

I've been waiting for a good time to sell mine....looks like that might be a while so I went ahead and bought a few more shares today, lol

[cruisingguy007]

31 minutes ago, TravelBluebird said:

Yes, the big worry now is fuel prices; not just cost of running the ships, but also everything in the supply chain going to be even more costly due to price of moving goods (which is why I assume the stock price went down today).

 

Ugh, just when the cruise industry and Carnival was coming out from under the pandemic.

 

Big worry is still covid. Even with strong spring break sailings and a great summer season, fall/winter may bring another covid strain. The risk is probably priced in at this point but it's still there and people are apprehensive. Even if travel isn't shutdown again, I would expect mostly empty ships again as passengers stay away. People are still apprehensive about flying, even though case numbers are WAY down and deaths as well. It's basically a gamble at this point. Virologists are expecting more strains, the question will be are they getting weaker or stronger? If one hits that completely evades the vaccines and the reduction in serious outcomes, it will reek havoc on the cruise lines. Then it becomes a matter of can they survive again? With all the debt loads that they are currently under, even if everything goes perfect, it will be a long time until they are completely out from under this. I wouldn't gamble that everything will go perfect, too many variables that lie outside of their control (like CDC interference, new strains, ports being closed, ships turned away etc). Very risky bet still.        

[brilliantseas]

Demand for summer 2022 and beyond is currently strong, but gasoline prices will put a damper on summer travel plans if this drags out for very long. I also suspect we'll also see the return of fuel surcharges as soon as one of the big three blinks. 

 

With that being said, I currently own shares as well as a significant number of April and June call option contracts with a $20 strike. 

[icft]

Nothing about the CCL chart looks good to me. I have no dog in the hunt but I expect it to get below eight dollars a share. Not investment advice, just idle thoughts.

[mondello]

7 hours ago, icft said:

Nothing about the CCL chart looks good to me. I have no dog in the hunt but I expect it to get below eight dollars a share. Not investment advice, just idle thoughts.

It did early in the pandemic. I wasn't tracking it but, many posted later that they got in at well under $10. I want 100 shares for OBC but, waffled when they started denying some for reduced fares and I've been booking casino fares. Some were approved but some were not.

[Nic6318]

don't forget that added to many other hurdles for improved profits, a very good reason for the steep fall in stock price could be the obvious significant increase in fuel costs and accompanying inflation . Even before covid, that would be a big downer for most travel industry stocks. 

[Denverdonkeys]

56 minutes ago, mondello said:

It did early in the pandemic. I wasn't tracking it but, many posted later that they got in at well under $10. I want 100 shares for OBC but, waffled when they started denying some for reduced fares and I've been booking casino fares. Some were approved but some were not.

they seem to have relaxed that back to the previous standards. If you have any booked and denied, I would reapply.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Denverdonkeys

[ledges1]

I believe the stock will trade in a narrow window between the current price and the low twenties. People are cruising with tremendous amounts of OBC. I have completed 2 cruises with a total of $1100 in OBC. I have used every penny. Total out of pocket on two cruises on the ship less than $100. I have two additional cruises booked with a total of $850 in OBC. People are spending free money on the ship. Carnival is paying the tab for the steakhouse, gratuities, beer, wine, gift shop, etc....  It will be awhile before Carnival will show a profit. The amounts I have mentioned above are low to average compared to the amounts I heard other people had on the ship. It will take awhile for this to free money to be eliminated. I also booked a 5 day cruise for $335 plus $100 OBC. How can this be profitable? 

[bamaone]

2 hours ago, ledges1 said:

I believe the stock will trade in a narrow window between the current price and the low twenties. 

Low twenties will be 25 to 30% ROI. Yea, I'll take that.

[Scotto97]

Newer, larger ships are much more efficient from a fuel and overall cost per passenger perspective. The industry is in great shape going forward. Even if there's another Covid strain, the shutdowns won't happen again. In 2 years, cruise line stocks will have doubled or tripled. 

[Lee Cruiser]

1 hour ago, Scotto97 said:

Newer, larger ships are much more efficient from a fuel and overall cost per passenger perspective. The industry is in great shape going forward. Even if there's another Covid strain, the shutdowns won't happen again. In 2 years, cruise line stocks will have doubled or tripled. 

I own a little Carnival stock, but I certainly wouldn't bet on that one.  Carnival took on a whole lot of debt over the last two years.  That, added to the fact that they also issued many more shares of stock would point to a much longer period before this stock gets anywhere close to pre-pandemic prices.

[ledges1]

2 hours ago, bamaone said:

Low twenties will be 25 to 30% ROI. Yea, I'll take that.

Did you buy today?

[sfaaa]

This is a long hold. So long as you buy on the cheap to limit the downside, it is worth the gamble.

[Scotto97]

1 hour ago, Lee Cruiser said:

I own a little Carnival stock, but I certainly wouldn't bet on that one.  Carnival took on a whole lot of debt over the last two years.  That, added to the fact that they also issued many more shares of stock would point to a much longer period before this stock gets anywhere close to pre-pandemic prices.

In normal times, the cruise industry is incredibly profitable (Very high profit margins) and by removing their older ships, will be even more so going forward. They will be able to pay down their debt within 3 - 5 years while also repurchasing their stock. Both actions will result in a quick rise of their stock prices.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Scotto97

[cruisingguy007]

11 hours ago, Lee Cruiser said:

I own a little Carnival stock, but I certainly wouldn't bet on that one.  Carnival took on a whole lot of debt over the last two years.  That, added to the fact that they also issued many more shares of stock would point to a much longer period before this stock gets anywhere close to pre-pandemic prices.

 

Exactly right. 

Edited March 10, 2022 by cruisingguy007

[cruisingguy007]

10 hours ago, Scotto97 said:

In normal times, the cruise industry is incredibly profitable (Very high profit margins) and by removing their older ships, will be even more so going forward. They will be able to pay down their debt within 3 - 5 years while also repurchasing their stock. Both actions will result in a quick rise of their stock prices.

 

These are far from normal times, far from normal debt loads and far from normal stock dilution than is standard/customary, about as far as you can get actually; it's essentially wing and a prayer mode to be perfectly honest. Removing their older ships isn't even technically a good thing, it's simply another indicator of the trying times and is harmful in fact, unless backed into a corner where you must cut to avoid a liquidity problem. The older ships are much more valuable on paper and allow for stretching assets/projections to the max. Getting rid of them actually shrinks their debit potentials. Cruise ships are single purpose built, if the older ships are not being utilized for cruising, they are worth scrap (raw materials/parts). It's more advantageous to your ledger to inflate their values with theoreticals and potentials disguised as forecasts and plans. Getting rid of old ships closes them out as hard line credit in the end, all for a small scrap debit. It's not good at all, accounting wise. If you are that bullish, you should go in whole hog, but all economic indicators/fundamentals disagree with you. It would be the mother of all rallies though and I'd love to see it, I'll just be cheering safely from the sidelines. Too risk averse for that kind of action.  

Edited March 10, 2022 by cruisingguy007

[Itried4498]

On 3/7/2022 at 3:21 PM, TNcruising02 said:

It sure does look like things will get worse before they get better, for entirely different reasons now.  I think the cruise ships are beginning to sail at near capacity.  They will probably be forced to increase prices now.  Maybe some of the mandates will go away so that cruising will be a good option for more people.

 

Select cruises are sailing at/near capacity, but it’s largely a derivative of heavy discounting.  They can’t just raise prices — they’ve had to extend heavy discounts into June (and select cruises over the peak summer) just to sell fares. 
 

The impact of the restrictions is overstated.  Las Vegas and Disney World had some level of mask mandates until recently, but demand has been swelling (without heavy discount)…. Yes, the removal of the vaccine mandate and COVID testing will help increase bookings, but again, the impact is being overstated. 

[DrSea]

23 hours ago, ledges1 said:

I believe the stock will trade in a narrow window between the current price and the low twenties. People are cruising with tremendous amounts of OBC. I have completed 2 cruises with a total of $1100 in OBC. I have used every penny. Total out of pocket on two cruises on the ship less than $100. I have two additional cruises booked with a total of $850 in OBC. People are spending free money on the ship. Carnival is paying the tab for the steakhouse, gratuities, beer, wine, gift shop, etc....  It will be awhile before Carnival will show a profit. The amounts I have mentioned above are low to average compared to the amounts I heard other people had on the ship. It will take awhile for this to free money to be eliminated. I also booked a 5 day cruise for $335 plus $100 OBC. How can this be profitable? 

I sailed on a balcony for $35 for 3 nights. How can that be profitable? 

[elcuchio24]

8 hours ago, cruisingguy007 said:

 

These are far from normal times, far from normal debt loads and far from normal stock dilution than is standard/customary, about as far as you can get actually; it's essentially wing and a prayer mode to be perfectly honest. Removing their older ships isn't even technically a good thing, it's simply another indicator of the trying times and is harmful in fact, unless backed into a corner where you must cut to avoid a liquidity problem. The older ships are much more valuable on paper and allow for stretching assets/projections to the max. Getting rid of them actually shrinks their debit potentials. Cruise ships are single purpose built, if the older ships are not being utilized for cruising, they are worth scrap (raw materials/parts). It's more advantageous to your ledger to inflate their values with theoreticals and potentials disguised as forecasts and plans. Getting rid of old ships closes them out as hard line credit in the end, all for a small scrap debit. It's not good at all, accounting wise. If you are that bullish, you should go in whole hog, but all economic indicators/fundamentals disagree with you. It would be the mother of all rallies though and I'd love to see it, I'll just be cheering safely from the sidelines. Too risk averse for that kind of action.  

 

You dont have to look at is as a 10 year or even one year investment. Travel stocks and cruises/airlines in particular have been awesome for short term, even interday plays during the past two years. I still hold a fair amount of travel holdings, but way less than 6 months ago and made piles of cash in the process.

 

Fine to look at a company as a true long term investment--also fine to find ways to make a quick buck in turn around trading. 

[cruisingguy007]

8 minutes ago, elcuchio24 said:

 

You dont have to look at is as a 10 year or even one year investment. Travel stocks and cruises/airlines in particular have been awesome for short term, even interday plays during the past two years. I still hold a fair amount of travel holdings, but way less than 6 months ago and made piles of cash in the process.

 

Fine to look at a company as a true long term investment--also fine to find ways to make a quick buck in turn around trading. 

 

This is true, volatility can be a good bet in the short-term with enough capital /volume to make up for the capital gains hit. That more in line with day trading though and isn't for the faint of heart and those with light wallets. Some with light wallets do it on margins but that's even more risky.   

[bamaone]

23 hours ago, ledges1 said:

Did you buy today?

Yes. Put in a limit at $15.50 and got 400.

[ledges1]

48 minutes ago, bamaone said:

Yes. Put in a limit at $15.50 and got 400.

Good deal.