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Carnival Stock Below $10


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1 hour ago, fbe2228 said:

peaking only of the OBC benefit and not of a potential share price increase, Is holding at least 100 shares in order to get the OBC even worth it anymore?  From what I'm seeing, now that OBC really only applies to non "reduced rate" sailings? 

Back in April I put in a request for our September cruise this year as well as January and April next year.  Both cruises next year were booked at the half price 50th anniversary sale.  I received the benefit for all three cruises.

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53 minutes ago, IntrepidFromDC said:

good analysis - doesn't mean they will go bankrupt but as someone else posted, they continue to lose money cruise after cruise and the economy tanking with high inflation is not good for companies that need consumers to be willing to part with discretionary dollars... I agree that management has cleverly positioned them to emerge from a restructure with a fraction of the debt they currently carry, although it's the same management that bungled the OBC bonanza that has been preventing CCL from being cash-flow positive for three consecutive quarters.  I'll start buying with a little more data, knowing the risk of restructure bankruptcy is possibly lurking.

Last I read, Carnival cruises were cash flow positive. 

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50 minutes ago, IntrepidFromDC said:

good analysis - doesn't mean they will go bankrupt but as someone else posted, they continue to lose money cruise after cruise and the economy tanking with high inflation is not good for companies that need consumers to be willing to part with discretionary dollars... I agree that management has cleverly positioned them to emerge from a restructure with a fraction of the debt they currently carry, although it's the same management that bungled the OBC bonanza that has been preventing CCL from being cash-flow positive for three consecutive quarters.  I'll start buying with a little more data, knowing the risk of restructure bankruptcy is possibly lurking.

 

Earnings report due the end of this month. As I recall Carnival expected to be profitable this quarter. We will see soon enough if that proved true. If not, it may go even lower.

 

Lots of variables with this stock.

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2 minutes ago, mz-s said:

 

Earnings report due the end of this month. As I recall Carnival expected to be profitable this quarter. We will see soon enough if that proved true. If not, it may go even lower.

 

Lots of variables with this stock.

That was projected months ago before Russia invaded Ukraine and a few other events. 

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Thanks for the insight.  My main purpose for the purchase of these shares is in order to benefit from the OBC. We cruise 1-2 times per year, so if I bought the shares for less than $10/share (maybe I'll wait and see where it goes.  I passed on the $8/share at the beginning of Covid) it would pay for itself after several years, not counting any increase in share price.  

 

Assuming Carnival doesn't eliminate or restrict the usage of that OBC in the future.....

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I am buying more.  Also buying up Amazon and Apple. It will go back up.  It always does.  My portfolio isn't actually down that much overall, but I am heavily invested in oil because I was raised on it living in Texas and all and know the industry and who is a good company and who isn't.  I bought Apache for $4 a share in 2020.  My Dad used to work for them in the 80s and I knew they were a good company. I lucked out that they had a big discovery shortly after I bought them.  I also purchased Marathon, OXY, CVX, XOM, COP, etc. back when when gas was negative dollars. So, I think that balances me out. 

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Oh, and Royal Carribean and NCL are down low, too.  I think it is about $40 a share. It got up to like $80+ a couple of months ago.  You can also buy CUK to meet the OBC.  It tends to be slightly cheaper.  

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Amazon got down to $101 a share today which is the lowest it has been since March 2020. That would be basically = 2k a share before the recent 20:1 split.  I have no doubt that Amazon will go back up.   

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7 hours ago, CruzDayz said:

i bought another 250 shares this morning. If it goes to $7 I will add more. I have been lucky to ride it up over the years and then sell at a modest profit a few times. I have always kept 100 shares for OBC.  

thats what i do  never buy too much at once, avg down. 

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1 minute ago, Eli_6 said:

Amazon got down to $101 a share today which is the lowest it has been since March 2020. That would be basically = 2k a share before the recent 20:1 split.  I have no doubt that Amazon will go back up.   

Since you have quite a list going, think about ABNB. You have some good picks there.

 

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On 1/23/2022 at 2:47 PM, Arizona Sunshine said:

You're not only in the wrong forum, you're on the wrong website. Please, please get advice from someone who understands investing before buying shares of an underperforming company in pursuit of onboard credit. Make quality investments and use the capital appreciation to buy your own drinks.

 

CCL was at 19.99 on January 23rd.

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19 hours ago, BoozinCroozin said:

This has ended several friends retirement plans

Anyone holding a significant chunk of their portfolio in stocks within 5 years of retiring knows they are playing with fire.  Isn't the idea to convert like 50% of your holdings to non-volatile stuff if looking to retire in 5 years?  And even more converted to bonds or whatever as you enter retirement itself.

 

19 hours ago, BoozinCroozin said:

I had planned to retire in 8 years, it is now looking like 15. 

Eight years after 2009 was 2017, where the DJIA was about three times the value at the nadir. Even if you went form 2007 (start of slide) to 2015, it was up 50%.  Eight years is way too long to think today's market represents what will happen by 2030.  (But make sure you reduce your exposure over time by converting to more stable holdings when you can.)  Oh, I am not a financial advisor, so don't listen to me!

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What could go wrong, 6 months before a recession officially hit, a stock meltdown is still at 40% of the way down, someone here trying to convince everything will be up.

 

Cash is officially the most valuable assets when 2 years treasury yield was over 10 years treasury yield. 

 

Buy at dip? Sure. However if you got the timing wrong, it could be another 4-8 years before it rebound to your profitable level.

 

It is all about timing. It is also about expectation. Carnival may announce a great result at end of this month, but the sentiment is not going to be rosy. The forecast will be heavily tainted by the prospect of a recession and consumer draw backs after a year long of revenge travel. If the CEO does not mention above points, market would sell on distrust. If the CEO does mention it point by point, market will still sell based on bleak future.

 

We are several months away from the bottom yet.

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1 minute ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

Anyone holding a significant chunk of their portfolio in stocks within 5 years of retiring knows they are playing with fire.  Isn't the idea to convert like 50% of your holdings to non-volatile stuff if looking to retire in 5 years?  And even more converted to bonds or whatever as you enter retirement itself.

 

Eight years after 2009 was 2017, where the DJIA was about three times the value at the nadir. Even if you went form 2007 (start of slide) to 2015, it was up 50%.  Eight years is way too long to think today's market represents what will happen by 2030.  (But make sure you reduce your exposure over time by converting to more stable holdings when you can.)  Oh, I am not a financial advisor, so don't listen to me!

My 401k's now are strictly play money. I was fortunate to get laid off a few years ago to truly open my eyes. Fortunately, we will have 2-pensions that will provide us enough to live off with our house paid off. However, what I am finding is nearly 70% of people retiring in the next 10-15 years have less than $10k saved for retirement. They have this idea SS will be able to support them. I will recover on my losses and I truly enjoy my job. The longer I work the higher my pension will be. I think we will be very fortunate retiring with ~$6k per month + tax writeoffs when we don't receive SS. But if you think things are bad watch as 70+% of people over 65 have no retirement savings.

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13 hours ago, Eli_6 said:

I am buying more.  Also buying up Amazon and Apple. It will go back up.  It always does.  My portfolio isn't actually down that much overall, but I am heavily invested in oil because I was raised on it living in Texas and all and know the industry and who is a good company and who isn't.  I bought Apache for $4 a share in 2020.  My Dad used to work for them in the 80s and I knew they were a good company. I lucked out that they had a big discovery shortly after I bought them.  I also purchased Marathon, OXY, CVX, XOM, COP, etc. back when when gas was negative dollars. So, I think that balances me out. 

 

LOVE me some APA! What a great stock. Bought them and FANG back in 2020 as well. Apache is a great company, good for your dad.

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11 minutes ago, BoozinCroozin said:

My 401k's now are strictly play money. I was fortunate to get laid off a few years ago to truly open my eyes. Fortunately, we will have 2-pensions that will provide us enough to live off with our house paid off. However, what I am finding is nearly 70% of people retiring in the next 10-15 years have less than $10k saved for retirement. They have this idea SS will be able to support them. I will recover on my losses and I truly enjoy my job. The longer I work the higher my pension will be. I think we will be very fortunate retiring with ~$6k per month + tax writeoffs when we don't receive SS. But if you think things are bad watch as 70+% of people over 65 have no retirement savings.

 

Good for you. And yes, retirement savings...or even thinking about it, is something so easy to 'put off since its so far down the road' for people, by the time they realize they're in a bad spot its too late. Invest early, invest often!

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I just bought more today - buying on the way down to drop my overall cost/share. As someone else said, if it drops another buck or two, I'll come back to the trough. I'm getting more and more for my $  (yes, there are dark clouds all around, and I'm not betting my life savings on it).

 

Tom

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As an aside, I was one of the ones who kept getting denied for my OBC back in late 2021, but my recent sailings have all been approved.  There doesn't seem to be rhyme or reason to it.  They say they don't give it on discounted sailings but I have been approved on true "casino" rates and denied on a rate that wasn't anything but one of the "VIFP" rates open to everyone. 

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1 hour ago, BoozinCroozin said:

My 401k's now are strictly play money. I was fortunate to get laid off a few years ago to truly open my eyes. Fortunately, we will have 2-pensions that will provide us enough to live off with our house paid off. However, what I am finding is nearly 70% of people retiring in the next 10-15 years have less than $10k saved for retirement. They have this idea SS will be able to support them. I will recover on my losses and I truly enjoy my job. The longer I work the higher my pension will be. I think we will be very fortunate retiring with ~$6k per month + tax writeoffs when we don't receive SS. But if you think things are bad watch as 70+% of people over 65 have no retirement savings.

What?  You really think that most people retiring in the next 10-15 years have no retirement???  Is this the Boomers?  That is scary.  I don't know enough people in that age bracket to comment.  I am a millenial, my husband is a Gen Xer and my parents are in the Silent Generation.  They retired 10-15 years ago...as did my in-laws.

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CUK got down to like about $8.50.  Not sure why CUK is less than Carnival.  CCL is at 9.50.  Anyone know why CUK is lower than CCL?

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9 minutes ago, Eli_6 said:

What?  You really think that most people retiring in the next 10-15 years have no retirement???  Is this the Boomers?  That is scary.  I don't know enough people in that age bracket to comment.  I am a millenial, my husband is a Gen Xer and my parents are in the Silent Generation.  They retired 10-15 years ago...as did my in-laws.

Most people cannot afford a $500 medical bill. So it doesn't surprise me.

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