Here's a scarey headline for CCL stockholders: Carnival Stock Could Fall to $0 in a Worst Case Scenario

[Ombud]

16 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

This includes $1.0 billion recently borrowed at an interest rate of 10.5%.

 

 

 

Now is approaching 80%. (And this is with more ships back in service). CCL brand is expected to be at 110% in third quarter.

 

 

Also, after accounting for all the ships that have left the fleet since the start of the pandemic, all the new and larger capacity ships, although fewer in number, mean that the overall total fleet passenger capacity is higher than pre-pandemic. Fewer ships, but higher capacity overall.

Also shifting retained ships within fleet (PCL -> POAU, at least 1 Costa now sailing under Carnival but keeping everything on it Costa to make it easier to shift back as needed) to maximize #s on each vessel

[OccasionalSanta]

2 hours ago, PescadoAmarillo said:

3 hours ago, Syracusefan44 said:

 

• Booking volumes for all future sailings during the second quarter of 2022 were nearly double the booking volumes during the first quarter of 2022; the company notes these were its best quarterly booking volumes since the beginning of the pandemic.

 

Thank you for this. I would love to know what percentage of these “best booking volumes” are being deposited and paid for with non-refundable FCCs.

 

Also in that report:

• Customer deposits increased $1.4 billion to $5.1 billion as of May 31, 2022 from $3.7 billion as of February 28, 2022.

 

While those of us that cruise frequently may tend to use FCDs for deposits, on my recent B2B Alaska cruises out of Vancouver, a large percentage of these (over 2/3 of those on board on the return trip) were first-time princess cruisers who would have had to put down the full deposit.  I've heard similar reports on other Princess ships sailing Alaska. 

 

While we missed the Captain's Circle gathering on the 2nd leg, I noticed that there were only about 20 people in the Platinum/Elite lounge on disembarkation morning.

 

I see this as a potential positive note that former non-cruisers are now showing interest in getting out there 

 

[sonomaphil]

On 6/18/2022 at 1:15 PM, cruising deacon said:

With online chat abounding regarding CCL possibly filing for bankruptcy, the future for Princess etc looks bleak.  If you look at the recent breakup of Crystal, the creditors and mortgage holders will end up taking whatever little the bankruptcy gets, the stockholders of will get nothing.

 

With the $20 B debt that CCL is carrying, even the mortgage holders will be lucky to get pennies on the dollar.  How many companies out there want to buy cruise ships that are quickly becoming worthless, and the scrap yards are already full of them.  Fortunately I have gotten my money's worth out of those shares between the dividends and the OBC', but it really bites me that their management hasn't done a better job.  I was on the Crown recently, no one who sails it will ever return.

Yes it is.

[caribill]

18 minutes ago, Ombud said:

Also shifting retained ships within fleet (PCL -> POAU, at least 1 Costa now sailing under Carnival but keeping everything on it Costa to make it easier to shift back as needed) to maximize #s on each vessel

 

Costa had ships dedicated to the China market which is now closed.

 

Rather than over-saturate Europe with Costa ships, they decided to reassign two ships to the USA market.

 

Yet to be seen is how different the onboard experience will be for traditional CCL brand customers. The main difference so far is a different class of ship than what has been in the CCL brand fleet.

[Roberto256]

On 6/18/2022 at 4:15 PM, cruising deacon said:

  I was on the Crown recently, no one who sails it will ever return.

Just like charlie on the mta!

 

"Did he ever return?
No he never returned
And his fate is still unlearn'd"

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M.T.A._(song)

 

 

[DCThunder]

2 hours ago, Roberto256 said:

Just like charlie on the mta!

 

"Did he ever return?
No he never returned
And his fate is still unlearn'd"

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M.T.A._(song)

 

 

Given the Crown has had propulsion issues, perhaps Coleridge is more appropriate:

 

Day after day, day after day,
We stuck, nor breath nor motion;
As idle as a painted ship
Upon a painted ocean.

Water, water, every where,
And all the boards did shrink;
Water, water, every where,
Nor any drop to drink.
 

[Guest ldtr]

10 hours ago, Daniel A said:

Is there a universally accepted definition of what constitutes a 'premium' cruise line?  What are the objective benchmarks?

 

I think some of the smaller lines identified in previous postings are really 'luxury' lines rather than being 'premium.'  If one were to examine the concept by comparing it to hotel chains, InterContinental Hotels classify some of their brands as follows:

"Essentials" - Holiday Inn Express

"Premium" - Crowne Plaza

"Luxury" - InterContinental 

 

I'm sure there are many who would contest classifying Crowne Plaza properties as being "Premium" but when put into context of the others, it is considered a premium.  I would call Holiday Inn Express properties as being 'mass market'

Well there are some fairly clear definitive lines that one can use.  If one uses ratio of % industry revenue to % passenger carried.  You get some fairly clear lines (using pre Covid numbers)  For example.  You also then have expedition but they, except for Hurtigruten tend to fall into luxury.

 

Family Focused Mass Market

< 2  (the ones in this category tend to be family oriented thus lots of passengers_

Carnival

Royal Caribbean

NCL

 

Mass Market  2 - 4  These tend to be more of an adult focus

Princess

HAL

Celebrity

Cunard

 

Premium  4-6

Oceania

Azamara

Viking

 

Luxury > 6

Regent

Silver Sea

Used to include Crystal as well.  

 

 

One could also look at included vs add on services.  Though the mass market lines have clouded that a bit with selling more inclusive options.  Though if one uses base fares for comparisom it remains pretty clear.

 

 

one can also use average ship size, or crew to passenger ratios.

 

With almost any of these measures you get fairly clear breakdowns in competition.

 

Edited June 24, 2022 by ldtr

[Ombud]

5 hours ago, sonomaphil said:

Yes it is.

I have repeatedly asked for the source and it has never been provided. It's one thing for an analyst capable of dissecting & analyzing the current quarterly report; it's another thing for someone on a non-investment chat site unaware of how to read that report to circulate another unconfirmed person's qualifications opinion as verifiable truth. 

 

I don't know Cruising Deacon's qualifications. They might be a CFA. Or they might be an ordinary pedestrian investor afraid as they see a normal market correction. I also don't know another poster's qualification who asked if LEAPS and shorts were the same thing. But I'm pretty sure they aren't an options trader.

 

All I'm saying is Please be aware of the qualifications of the person you are taking investment advice from. 

 

This board is a great source for cruising advice / a lousy source of investment advice

 

 

Edited June 24, 2022 by Ombud
Typo - fat fingers

[Daniel A]

42 minutes ago, ldtr said:

Well there are some fairly clear definitive lines that one can use.  If one uses ratio of % industry revenue to % passenger carried.  You get some fairly clear lines (using pre Covid numbers)  For example.  You also then have expedition but they, except for Hurtigruten tend to fall into luxury.

 

Family Focused Mass Market

< 2  (the ones in this category tend to be family oriented thus lots of passengers_

Carnival

Royal Caribbean

NCL

 

Mass Market  2 - 4  These tend to be more of an adult focus

Princess

HAL

Celebrity

Cunard

 

Premium  4-6

Oceania

Azamara

Viking

 

Luxury > 6

Regent

Silver Sea

Used to include Crystal as well.  

 

 

One could also look at included vs add on services.  Though the mass market lines have clouded that a bit with selling more inclusive options.  Though if one uses base fares for comparisom it remains pretty clear.

 

 

one can also use average ship size, or crew to passenger ratios.

 

With almost any of these measures you get fairly clear breakdowns in competition.

 

Thank you for taking the time to respond to my previous post, but you didn't answer my main question: Are there universally accepted standards with articulated benchmarks for determining the status of cruise lines?  I appreciate your taking the time to post your standards, but are there standards put out by CLIA which would represent agreement within the cruise line industry?  I hope you can understand my reticence in adopting the statements of anonymous internet posts put out by a member who only joined less than a month ago.

 

There is no offense intended...Please keep posting, welcome to the discussions!

[wowzz]

6 hours ago, Ombud said:

 

Long-term Equity Anticipation Securities are an option play over 12 months. Not shorting

Thank you. I still have no idea what that means.  I'll stick to the lottery.

[caribill]

Adding to CCL Corp financial woes:

 

A New York state regulator on Friday fined cruise line operator Carnival Corp $5 million for "significant" cybersecurity violations, following four security breaches from 2019 to 2021 that exposed substantial amounts of sensitive customer data.

[Ombud]

3 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Thank you. I still have no idea what that means.  I'll stick to the lottery.

😅🤣😂ok. Alot of ppl get confused. I do options but just level 3. And yes, sometimes it feels like a game (I'm honest on that point). Guessing you are unfamiliar with the difference between option levels too so I'll retreat from confusing you. 

 

I'll keep my general stock discussions for the Traders Network within Schwab 

[Guest ldtr]

39 minutes ago, Ombud said:

I have repeatedly asked for the source and it has never been provided. It's one thing for an analyst capable of dissecting & analyzing the current quarterly report; it's another thing for someone on a non-investment chat site unaware of how to read that report to circulate another unconfirmed person's qualifications opinion as verifiable truth. 

 

I don't know Cruising Deacon's qualifications. They might be a CFA. Or they might be an ordinary pedestrian investor afraid as they see a normal market correction. I also don't know another poster's qualification who asked if LEAPS and shorts were the same thing. But I'm pretty sure they aren't an options trader.

 

All I'm saying is Please be aware of the qualifications of the person you are taking investment advice from. 

 

This board is a great source for cruising advice / a lousy source of investment advice

 

 

Many analysts and brokers are poor sources of investment advice.

[Ombud]

10 minutes ago, ldtr said:

Many analysts and brokers are poor sources of investment advice.

Can I like this 1000%!!!! I reevaluate what CFAs say, only listen to fee based CFPs (actually Schwab gives me a free one who is salaried there), and then do exactly what I think. Often disagreeing with them. But hey it's served me quite well. 

 

But I do watch talking heads on TV for a good laugh (his initials are JC)

 

 

Edited June 24, 2022 by Ombud

[Guest ldtr]

28 minutes ago, Daniel A said:

Thank you for taking the time to respond to my previous post, but you didn't answer my main question: Are there universally accepted standards with articulated benchmarks for determining the status of cruise lines?  I appreciate your taking the time to post your standards, but are there standards put out by CLIA which would represent agreement within the cruise line industry?  I hope you can understand my reticence in adopting the statements of anonymous internet posts put out by a member who only joined less than a month ago.

 

There is no offense intended...Please keep posting, welcome to the discussions!

 

[Guest ldtr]

1 hour ago, Daniel A said:

Thank you for taking the time to respond to my previous post, but you didn't answer my main question: Are there universally accepted standards with articulated benchmarks for determining the status of cruise lines?  I appreciate your taking the time to post your standards, but are there standards put out by CLIA which would represent agreement within the cruise line industry?  I hope you can understand my reticence in adopting the statements of anonymous internet posts put out by a member who only joined less than a month ago.

 

There is no offense intended...Please keep posting, welcome to the discussions!

I had edited a response but then off to do something before making that it went.

 

Lets use your IHG hotels as an example

 

At one point you had 

 

Holiday Inn  essentials

Crown Plaza  Premium

Intercontinental   Luxury

 

But then over time Holiday Inn and Crowne Plaza aged, and in many cases not gracefully

 

You got Holiday Inn Express as a more modern essentials,  Holiday inn itself became a bit more diverse with some having more premium features (Holiday Inn resorts for example( and some being more dated.  These days the primary difference between essentials and premium is more in the amenities than the rooms.  Premium tend to have full service restaurants while essentials tends to be included breakfast only.

 

Crown Plaza (atleast those that have been remodeled) are more of a full service hotel (which are characteristics of premium hotels), whose prices are usually lower that essential hotels around it.

 

Intercontinental is still luxury to some degree, but only if it has kept up and continued to meet the competition.  IHG has added other properties to their luxury categories such as Kimpton because of how the industry has changed.

 

Now lets look at cruising when CCL purchased Princess and HAL.  At that time CCL was considered to be a discount cruise line, so by definition Princess and HAL were a step above that line.  Just as Celebrity was a step above Royal.

 

However, the industry has changed over the 20 years or so.  Look at the industry today.  With the exception of CCL, Royal and NCL  being largely family focused what differentiators exist between those lines and Princess.  When it comes to production shows and entertainment Princess is not a cut above.  Dining, at one point I would have said that food quality on Princess was better, but even before Covid the food quality was becoming less distinctive.  They are some differences but more of menu choice not quality (they are all pretty much hotel convention dinner quality).  How about rooms?  Again not much different.  Todays Princess new builds are larger than the builds of those other lines a few years ago. Still a bit smaller than their modern ships, but is it enough of a differentiator?

 

So other than their being family focused and Princess is not what exactly would put Princess into a higher classification today?  Rooms, Food, Entertainment, Services, Ship features, exactly what?

[Guest ldtr]

 

 

Here is the criteria that Fodors  uses to classify cruise lines.  10-15 years ago I can see Princess meeting more of the Premium criteria,  today not so much.

 

Edited June 25, 2022 by ldtr

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, caribill said:

Adding to CCL Corp financial woes:

 

A New York state regulator on Friday fined cruise line operator Carnival Corp $5 million for "significant" cybersecurity violations, following four security breaches from 2019 to 2021 that exposed substantial amounts of sensitive customer data.

I only saw a $1.25 million class action suit settled. I wonder if this is an addition to what you just posted.

 

$1.25 Million Settlement Over Carnival Cruise Line Data Breach | News Releases | NH Department of Justice

[CruizinSusan70]

20 hours ago, wowzz said:

I have absolutely no idea what any of that means  !

Are you shorting the stock ?

Possibly consumption of Mississippi Moonshine?

[CruizinSusan70]

8 hours ago, ldtr said:

 

 

Here is the criteria that Fodors  uses to classify cruise lines.  10-15 years ago I can see Princess meeting more of the Premium criteria,  today not so much.

 

By this criteria, Mainstream would be NCL, RCI, Carnival and MSC.  Premium would be Celebrity, Princess, Holland America, & Cunard.  Luxury would be Seabourn, Viking, Azamara and Regent.

 

Just because the Princess of today has dropped a notch in your opinion, that doesn't mean that they are no longer a premium line.

[Daniel A]

3 hours ago, CruizinSusan70 said:

By this criteria, Mainstream would be NCL, RCI, Carnival and MSC.  Premium would be Celebrity, Princess, Holland America, & Cunard.  Luxury would be Seabourn, Viking, Azamara and Regent.

 

Just because the Princess of today has dropped a notch in your opinion, that doesn't mean that they are no longer a premium line.

The Fodor's chart is the type of classification to which I have been referring.  Each 'criteria' listed there is entirely subjective and opinion based.  There are no standardized criterion published from Fodor's.  For example: What constitutes the difference between 'prompt' and 'fine'?  How can the delivery of food be both prompt and cooked to order?  How does one delineate the difference between 'Full yet comfortable' and 'Plenty of elbow room'?  The point here is that there are no set objective standards anywhere - that leaves the determination of what premium is 'in the eyes of the beholder'.  

 

Good discussion but it is really fodder for a different thread.  I don't want this to turn into thread drift, so I won't respond to further discussion of 'Mass Market' v 'Premium.'  🛳️v🚢

[cruising deacon]

15 hours ago, Ombud said:

I have repeatedly asked for the source and it has never been provided. It's one thing for an analyst capable of dissecting & analyzing the current quarterly report; it's another thing for someone on a non-investment chat site unaware of how to read that report to circulate another unconfirmed person's qualifications opinion as verifiable truth. 

 

I don't know Cruising Deacon's qualifications. They might be a CFA. Or they might be an ordinary pedestrian investor afraid as they see a normal market correction. I also don't know another poster's qualification who asked if LEAPS and shorts were the same thing. But I'm pretty sure they aren't an options trader.

 

All I'm saying is Please be aware of the qualifications of the person you are taking investment advice from. 

 

This board is a great source for cruising advice / a lousy source of investment advice

 

 

My only qualification is that I am a long time Elite member with Princess, which is the only line I have cruised with in the last 20 years.  Over recent years I have felt that Princess had gone from GOOD to FAIR, but after cruises earlier this year, in my opinion they have now gone to POOR.  I doubt that I will ever sail with them again.  

[Daniel A]

59 minutes ago, cruising deacon said:

My only qualification is that I am a long time Elite member with Princess, which is the only line I have cruised with in the last 20 years.  Over recent years I have felt that Princess had gone from GOOD to FAIR, but after cruises earlier this year, in my opinion they have now gone to POOR.  I doubt that I will ever sail with them again.  

You started this thread by citing CCL which is Carnival Corporation and P&L.  How does your experience with Carnival Cruise Line, Holland America Line, Seabourn, P&O Cruises (Australia), Costa Cruises, AIDA Cruises, P&O Cruises (UK) and Cunard factor into your assessment of Carnival Corporation (or are you painting CCL with a broad brush?)

 

If you're not happy with their product, you probably shouldn't cruise with them again.  If you ever do go on other cruises, expect some hiccups as the restart is still taking some time.  (Try comparing to the airlines, their performance and amenities...)  Displaying some grace and understanding of Princess' trauma caused by the shutdown just might be appropriate now.  JMHO

[Ombud]

22 hours ago, OccasionalSanta said:

I noticed that there were only about 20 people in the Platinum/Elite lounge on disembarkation morning.

 

I see this as a potential positive note that former non-cruisers are now showing interest in getting out there 

This is just what I saw on 3 of my 4 post covid cruisers::

 

They have a new 'game.' Spend $100+ in a single transaction and get a ticket for a drawing on the 2nd to last night (which turned out to be more merch). I was stunned when I saw the vast number of ppl in the drawing, huge number of tickets in each of their hands, and the knowledge that a friend of mine (her 2nd cruise) got a Tanzaniate & diamond ring / pendant/ earrings / bracelet set received 1 ticket for that effy purchase. Wow just wow. No wonder onboard sales are up^^^

 

Me .... I was at that 'every shirt for $5 table' buying 1. 

 

Let's see:

Elite = $5

2nd cruiser = over 5k

Who does CCL want to return to any ship anywhere in fleet more?

 

 

Edited June 25, 2022 by Ombud

[ebeluga]

18 minutes ago, Ombud said:

This is just what I saw on 3 of my 4 post covid cruisers::

 

They have a new 'game.' Spend $100+ in a single transaction and get a ticket for a drawing on the 2nd to last night (which turned out to be more merch). I was stunned when I saw the vast number of ppl in the drawing, huge number of tickets in each of their hands, and the knowledge that a friend of mine (her 2nd cruise) got a Tanzaniate & diamond ring / pendant/ earrings / bracelet set received 1 ticket for that effy purchase. Wow just wow. No wonder onboard sales are up^^^

 

Me .... I was at that 'every shirt for $5 table' buying 1. 

 

Let's see:

Elite = $5

2nd cruiser = over 5k

Who does CCL want to return to any ship anywhere in fleet more?

 

 

True to a certain degree.  There are only a finite number of new cruisers who would play that kind of game more than once.  It gets old pretty quickly.  Any successful business needs repeated customers, I would think...