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RCL stock at a new 52 week low


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Posted (edited)

Without repeated customers the stock will go down more.

Lisa Lutoff- Perlo  wake up the cruise line can't depend on the revenues from the suite guests  to keep alive.

Edited by verizon
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2 minutes ago, verizon said:

Without repeated customers the stock will go down more.

Lisa Lutoff- Perlo  wake up the cruise line can't depend on the revenues from the suite guests  to keep alive.

 

Isn't the stock for the Royal Caribbean Group (RCL on the NYSE). Not Celebrity?  So that would be Richard Fain, not LLP...

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10 minutes ago, Orator said:

I believe that it’s only a matter of time until RCL suspends stockholder credit. That would add to the bottom line. 

Dang won’t that be fun here on CC if they do that.  I can only imagine how many different threads it would spawn.

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10 minutes ago, Orator said:

I believe that it’s only a matter of time until RCL suspends stockholder credit. That would add to the bottom line. 

 

If that's what's driving down their stock price. It could be their P/E ratio (they're not paying dividends), their ROE, or just as likely their Return on Debt, since they've taken on a lot of debt over the last two years. With no return to investors, all those ratios are bad. If you're looking for a short to mid term return, I don't see a cruise line as a good bet.

 

The stockholder credit is an operational expense and likely has little or no impact on their ROD. It's also good PR, and they need that. Don't invest in RCG for the shareholder credit. If they meet your other criteria for an investment, go for it. Even though shares are pretty low right now, I wouldn't invest just to get the credit.

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58 minutes ago, Orator said:

I believe that it’s only a matter of time until RCL suspends stockholder credit. That would add to the bottom line. 

Yep, that $100 OBC they gave me for my next cruise will make all the difference🤪

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1 hour ago, DirtyDawg said:

“The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.” — Philip Fisher

I've always taken a buy & hold approach for most of my investments, but I do love those types of investors. More than once they've helped bail me out when I held an investment just a little too long. I added RCL to our portfolio a few years after our honeymoon cruise made me a convert.

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37 minutes ago, cdn_tbird said:

I've always taken a buy & hold approach for most of my investments, but I do love those types of investors. More than once they've helped bail me out when I held an investment just a little too long. I added RCL to our portfolio a few years after our honeymoon cruise made me a convert.

I was in the investment business for over 30 years as and analyst and portfolio manager. Companies' like Royal have never met my definition of an 'investment'. At best they are speculations. Too leveraged, both operationally and financially. I never would risk my clients' money with these types of companies. If I would not buy these type of companies for my clients I would never buy them for my personal account. 

 

I'm retired now from the industry and I'm teaching at University (Hey, you have to do something fun in your retirement!). So I was free to purchase RCL shares in March 2020. I made money with my speculation but I could have done the same by going to the local casino and betting at the roulette table, probability with less risk too. Today, RCL's financial position is far worse than it was in March 2020. For me, to even speculate with this stock now, I'd have to do a detailed credit analysis of the company to determine the probability that this Company might go bankrupt over any reasonable holding period. With the sharp decline in the prices of other true 'investments' which have similar upsides, the risk reward is not currently very attractive for even a speculation on RCL stock in my opinion.

 

Edited by DirtyDawg
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13 minutes ago, DirtyDawg said:

I was in the investment business for over 30 years as and analyst and portfolio manager. Companies' like Royal have never met my definition of an 'investment'. At best they are speculations. Too leveraged, both operationally and financially. I never would risk my clients' money with these types of companies. If I would not buy these type of companies for my clients I would never buy them for my personal account. 

 

I'm retired now from the industry and I'm teaching at University (Hey, you have to do something fun in your retirement!). So I was free to purchase RCL shares in March 2020. I made money with my speculation but I could have done the same by going to the local casino and betting at the roulette table, probability with less risk too. Today, RCL's financial position is far worse than it was in March 2020. For me, to even speculate with this stock now, I'd have to do a detailed credit analysis of the company to determine the probability that this Company might go bankrupt over any reasonable holding period. With the sharp decline in the prices of other true 'investments' which have similar upsides, the risk reward is not currently very attractive for even a speculation on RCL stock in my opinion.

 

I've always had a portion of my portfolio that was "play" money. Don't think I agree with you on going to the casino, at least I can recoup some value even if I lose all my play money. Can't deduct casino losses.

 

I bought my 100 shares back in the spring of '09 for $800 USD which at the time came out to somewhere around $750 CAD.

 

In Mar. 2020 I wouldn't have touched any travel company let alone X, I used my play money on a couple of smaller Canadian companies in the gas & oil sector that got smacked hard.

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6 minutes ago, cdn_tbird said:

I've always had a portion of my portfolio that was "play" money. Don't think I agree with you on going to the casino, at least I can recoup some value even if I lose all my play money. Can't deduct casino losses.

 

I bought my 100 shares back in the spring of '09 for $800 USD which at the time came out to somewhere around $750 CAD.

 

In Mar. 2020 I wouldn't have touched any travel company let alone X, I used my play money on a couple of smaller Canadian companies in the gas & oil sector that got smacked hard.

We can discuss which type of investment account  people should use for their 'play' money  over drinks on a cruise at some point in the future. My point was about risk vs reward. There was a great deal of risk with RCL stock in 2020 and there is even more today.

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2 hours ago, Virginia100 said:

With the new 2.75 variant out there the cruise lines are in the crosshairs again, why the stock is down. 

 

I'm pretty sure their stock is down because they've leveraged an incredible amount of debt, fuel prices are up, the general stock market is down, and much of their target audience is retired or in semi-retirement and watching their 401k/403b balance drop 15-20%. Most analysts are going to assume most people will circle the wagons on necessities. The good news is most recessions are all but over by the time they meet the criteria to be considered a recession. The bad news is you're fighting perception for a luxury good...

 

The new variant doesn't help, but I'd be hard pressed to make a case that's driving RCG's stock prices.

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The shareholder credit is just a marketing instrument, nothing else. In light of al the other discounts they're giving such as free single cabins, 60% off, $500 off flights it's really a droplet in the water. Most shareholders don't even bother getting it or they don't cruise.

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14 hours ago, markeb said:

 

I'm pretty sure their stock is down because they've leveraged an incredible amount of debt, fuel prices are up, the general stock market is down, and much of their target audience is retired or in semi-retirement and watching their 401k/403b balance drop 15-20%.

 

The main reason is simply the whole share market is down, i.e. not because of the company itself. You can see it yourself; 121 shares at 52 week lows just today, covering all sorts of sectors, real estate, retail, travel, banks and many other sectors. 

 

New 52 Week Highs and Lows (wsj.com)

 

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16 hours ago, markeb said:

 

I'm pretty sure their stock is down because they've leveraged an incredible amount of debt, fuel prices are up, the general stock market is down, and much of their target audience is retired or in semi-retirement and watching their 401k/403b balance drop 15-20%. Most analysts are going to assume most people will circle the wagons on necessities. The good news is most recessions are all but over by the time they meet the criteria to be considered a recession. The bad news is you're fighting perception for a luxury good...

 

The new variant doesn't help, but I'd be hard pressed to make a case that's driving RCG's stock prices.

Yeah, the stock holding dropping 15-20% probably is key. I’ve lost a fair amount and holding off to 2023 after much thought. Just decided to cut back a bit.

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While the entire stock market is down the cruise lines are in much worse shape than most. No earnings, not yet cash flow positive, lots of additional debt, lower equity (despite lots of additional shares outstanding) and currently facing rising interest rates, high fuel prices, high inflation, higher personnel costs,  softening demand, persistent covid concerns, airline disruptions and a very strong $USD.  Hopefully they will manage to get through this but it will be a very long time before earnings (or the stock) can hope to approach 2019 levels.

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