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Jared19

Hurricane Dean set to form in the atlantic

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I posted about this yesterday and the post was moved to oblivion (Hurricane discussion board) after about 10 minutes (or less). I guess those of us sailing soon should not try to put the word out on the Carnival board.

Maybe you should have named the post:

CC group cruise through Hurricane Dean. LOL

 

LOL

 

i guess the mods dont want people cancelling their cruise, so they want them to cruise through tortureous and barbaric waves

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Some scenarios to consider:

 

1) A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. east Coast Friday, which may be able to deflect 90L northwards enough to pass north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. A high pressure ridge is then expected to build in, forcing 90L more westwards towards the U.S. East Coast. This is the scenario preferred by the Canadian model.

 

2) 90L will be far enough south and next weekend's trough will be weak enough that 90L will plow through the Caribbean, and not be deflected north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. This is the solution preferred by the GFS, UKMET, and HWRF models.

 

3) 90L will never develop, or will never become more than a weak tropical storm, due to unfavorable wind shear, dry air, or other factors.

 

Of the three scenarios, I believe #2 is most likely to occur--90L will develop into a tropical storm or hurricane that will hit the Lesser Antilles, and pass into the Caribbean. It currently appears unlikely that 90L will recurve harmlessly out to sea, since the storm is too far south and the steering pattern is not generating a sufficiently strong enough trough to recurve it. Residents throughout the Caribbean and U.S. should anticipate the possibility that 90L may become a hurricane--and possibly a major hurricane--that will not recurve. If you plan on being in the Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday August 16 - Sunday August 19, keep in mind there is a heightened risk of a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane during that period. Be prepared to adjust your travel plans.

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This is probably a stupid question, but can you fly over the Atlantic when a hurricane is raging below:confused: :confused:

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The current prog charts show this system staying well south, passing over Jamaica, Northern Yucatan and making landfall in Mexico a hundred or so miles south of Texas.

 

Current forecast wind at landfall are 50 kts, still well below hurricane strength.

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This is probably a stupid question, but can you fly over the Atlantic when a hurricane is raging below:confused: :confused:

 

Yes ....but they will route around it.

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Yes ....but they will route around it.

 

Thanks, we are flying to London to board our ship next year during hurricane season, so I was a bit concerned.

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145027.shtml?5day?large#contents

 

Eastern carribean cruises next week should be ok

Western carribean cruisers next week, worry

Reminder this is still 5 days out of the ANTILLES and anything could happen, and the forecast could differ to the left or the right

 

Just a warning

 

I read on another site it was headed towards the Virgin Islands.:confused:

 

Now I know why I'm not a weather forecaster!

 

Bill

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145027.shtml?5day?large#contents

 

Eastern carribean cruises next week should be ok

Western carribean cruisers next week, worry

Reminder this is still 5 days out of the ANTILLES and anything could happen, and the forecast could differ to the left or the right

 

Just a warning

 

I just wonder what 3 weeks out looks like????? We're on the Glory Eastern carribean on 9/1. Is there a "typical" period of calm between major storms?

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Some scenarios to consider:

 

1) A trough of low pressure is expected to move off .....

 

2) 90L will be far enough south and next .....

 

3) 90L will never develop, or will never become .....

 

If you plan on being in the Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday August 16 - Sunday August 19, keep in mind there is a heightened risk of a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane during that period. Be prepared to adjust your travel plans.

 

This stuff was greek to me so to speak..... We will be doing an Eastern itinerary from the 25th through the 1st. You guys seem to be quite knowledgeable about weather systems, what do you think the probability of this storm system being gone by then. Thanks...

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I just wonder what 3 weeks out looks like????? We're on the Glory Eastern carribean on 9/1. Is there a "typical" period of calm between major storms?

 

The answer to your first ?.....to far out to tell.

 

Second ? NO, one storm can follow another at any given time however the upwelling of the waters Sometimes limit intensity by churing the cooler water to the surface. No one can predict an exact location of a storm further than 3 day's out. Even the National Hurricane Center at the end of every storm discussion advises that long range forecasts are difficult to predict because there are to many variables that enter into a storms track and intensity.

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Landfall appears to be on the 25th. Anything new that crops up that might effect you would be local, something that brews in the Gulf or the Western Atlantic.

 

Pretty much everything this far out dealing with weather is an educated guess, and after all, an educated guess is still just a guess...

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Landfall appears to be on the 25th.

 

Your reading waaaay too much into those long range forecasts if you put any credence into that date, or the current path for that matter. Until the models have a few days worth of data, the aren't very accurate. And even then they are only reasonably accurate for the next 72 hours or so. Twelve days from now? Forget it. All that means is they think that scenario has a 3% chance of happening when the bucketload of other scenarios they can think of each have a 2% chance.

 

That said, I like to look at the long range forecasts too. Just to expect them to mean anything.

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... and that's exactly why I said it's all a guess...

 

In the three days I've been watching this system its track has wandered north, then west, then north and again west.

 

As I said, an educated guess is still just a guess...

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For those of us headed to the Western Caribbean next week, anyone know what the cruise line might do?

 

We're set to sail on Ecstasy on the 20th, headed for Progresso (22nd) and Coz (23rd). :eek:

 

Are there 'standard alternate' ports or routes that we could be doing some research on?

 

Thanks!

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Do not worry about things you cannot control. The cruise ships have alternate courses. We missed Nassau and spent a day at sea, which was fine by me. Keep me safe, that's the main thing. You just can't worry and stress over a hurricane. This is why most of my cruises are between January and May.

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For those of us headed to the Western Caribbean next week, anyone know what the cruise line might do?

 

We're set to sail on Ecstasy on the 20th, headed for Progresso (22nd) and Coz (23rd). :eek:

 

Are there 'standard alternate' ports or routes that we could be doing some research on?

 

Thanks!

 

Because it is impossible to predict that far out go to:

Carnival.com, at the bottom of the page is customer service....click on that and then click on weather update and information. They will advise you IF there are any itenerary changes. I just checked and they do not have any info so check in later in the week when the NHC has a better handle on this storm.

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For those of us headed to the Western Caribbean next week, anyone know what the cruise line might do?

 

We're set to sail on Ecstasy on the 20th, headed for Progresso (22nd) and Coz (23rd). :eek:

 

Are there 'standard alternate' ports or routes that we could be doing some research on?

 

Thanks!

 

We're to set sail on the Fantasy on the 20th, headed for Costa Maya and Cozumel (23rd). :(

 

I only hope it peters out.

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The answer to your first ?.....to far out to tell.

 

Second ? NO, one storm can follow another at any given time however the upwelling of the waters Sometimes limit intensity by churing the cooler water to the surface. No one can predict an exact location of a storm further than 3 day's out. Even the National Hurricane Center at the end of every storm discussion advises that long range forecasts are difficult to predict because there are to many variables that enter into a storms track and intensity.

 

wanna bet... what about 2004 season? NO hurricaines were to hit Central Florida, and we had 3 all on the same path.

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We leave on the 18th for the Eastern. I'm not concerned about being on the ship, they will just go around the storm. I am concerned about my house, I live in Florida!

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wanna bet... what about 2004 season? NO hurricaines were to hit Central Florida, and we had 3 all on the same path.

 

I think you miss read my post! One storm can infact follow another. The NO was a short answer to the posters ? is there a lull in between storms!

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I think you miss read my post! One storm can infact follow another. The NO was a short answer to the posters ? is there a lull in between storms!

 

 

August 13, August 28 (I think) and Sept 13. Within a month. It was like Charlie came through met up with Danielle, and spawned Frances then she returned to sea and met up with another one and came around with Jeane.

 

Of course 2004 was a very very busy hurricane year. As soon as Jeane went through, here came Katrina, missing Florida and hitting New Orleans.

 

We sat on pins and needles through Danielle, and the one between Frances and Jeane, then when Katrina was announced, people ran like scared rabbits. After being hit by 3 we were petrified.

 

Did not get electric back on till about 2 days before Frances hit, and got cable back on a few days before Jeane.

 

Rough year. I had never been through a tornado or hurricane before in my life. That year, we drove through a tornado in Georgia, saw 3 in Indiana, viedo taped one of those as it took out one of the small towns a mile from where we lived. and then came home to all those hurricanes.

 

Scarry.

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Also remember, your cruise could be deverted to another route. IE.... if you are scheduled eastern, you could in fact go western or southern instead depending on where the storm is coming from and vice versa.

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LOL

 

i guess the mods dont want people cancelling their cruise, so they want them to cruise through tortureous and barbaric waves

 

Hey, I've been to the Dry Torturous and to British West Barbaric. Great places.

 

Dan

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Also remember, your cruise could be deverted to another route. IE.... if you are scheduled eastern, you could in fact go western or southern instead depending on where the storm is coming from and vice versa.

 

Very true! I always cruise the first part of Oct. and not once has hurricane season been a deturiant for me. I look at it this way: it's a cruise, I don't care I have to call on another port, can I handle another day at sea.......YEP!, pricing is good. So bottom line is that if you chose to cruise during hurricane season be prepared for changes.

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