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Jared19

Hurricane Dean set to form in the atlantic

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so ok, we are leaivng new york on august 15th and going to PR, St. Thomas and Tortola - what does everyone think?

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so ok, we are leaivng new york on august 15th and going to PR, St. Thomas and Tortola - what does everyone think?

 

Do you like Canada? Newfoundland?:D

 

I'd guess you will leave OK, but you may have an itinerary change. YOU WILL NOT SAIL NEAR A HURRICANE. Not that they like you so much, but they sure like their ship.;)

 

Dan

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just in case if a hurricane was to affect my cruise... what is carnivals policy about it?

http://www.carnival.com/CMS/FAQs/Hurricanes.aspx

 

Hurricane season encompasses the months of June through November. Due to the unpredictable nature of hurricanes it may not be possible to give information about itinerary changes in advance of the sailing. Carnival's main priority is the safety of our guests and crew, as well as the vessel. It is rare for a cancellation to occur due to an impending hurricane. In some instances an itinerary deviation is implemented to avoid a storm. Hurricanes have been known to change their course drastically at the last minute. Guests that have any questions should contact our Reservations department the day prior to sailing, as that is when we will have definitive information. We will always make decisions that assure the cruise experience will be a great one and that all on board are totally safe.

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August 13, August 28 (I think) and Sept 13. Within a month. It was like Charlie came through met up with Danielle, and spawned Frances then she returned to sea and met up with another one and came around with Jeane.

 

Of course 2004 was a very very busy hurricane year. As soon as Jeane went through, here came Katrina, missing Florida and hitting New Orleans.

We sat on pins and needles through Danielle, and the one between Frances and Jeane, then when Katrina was announced, people ran like scared rabbits. After being hit by 3 we were petrified.

Charley, Frances and Jeanne were in 2004, but Katrina was in 2005. :confused:

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Canada sounds great right about now......honestly it doesnt' matter which islands we go to its a vacation and thats all that counts......

The funny thing is that the last carnival cruise we were on (thanksgiving 2006 on the Liberty) the cruise was shortened due to the noro virus the week prior to our sailing and also that cruise was cut from a six day cruise to a four day cruise. We still had a great time!

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I just wonder what 3 weeks out looks like????? We're on the Glory Eastern carribean on 9/1. Is there a "typical" period of calm between major storms?

 

 

That is the PEAK of hurricane season

 

Just to let everyone know, they update at 5am and pm, 11 am and pm

 

right now it forecasts to be near keywest by probably next week

im betting its gonna move a bit.

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Living where Charley came through and then all those that followed in 2004, I have learned to be thrilled to see that early in the predictions a hurricane is coming right over me...think about it, it changes from day to day and if they think it's coming at me now, it most likely will not...Charley, within an hour, moved from hitting Tampa to hitting us as we watched on the television (August 13, 2004 one year ago exactly today), becoming a category 4 in that short amount of time. As hard it is, don't even think about a storm until you are 72 hours from it. It's only supposition and best guessing even from the experts. Mother Nature is the only one who knows....

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We Are Leaving This Thursday (aug 16th) Out Of Galveston On The Ecstasy To Cozumel. Should We Be Concered About This Storm?

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You weather watchers - please keep us posted - I was in Hurricane Charlie while vacationing in Florida - scared half to death!!! We are on the Miracle, leaving New York on the 23rd of August to San Juan and the Virgin Islands . Just our luck - To all the seasoned cruisers what happens - will we get refunded - kathy

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Charley, Frances and Jeanne were in 2004, but Katrina was in 2005. :confused:

 

I think Penny might have been confusing Katrina with Ivan, which came through in '04, skipping the part of FL that had already taken 2 hits, and slamming, instead, into the Pensacola area.

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You weather watchers - please keep us posted - I was in Hurricane Charlie while vacationing in Florida - scared half to death!!! We are on the Miracle, leaving New York on the 23rd of August to San Juan and the Virgin Islands . Just our luck - To all the seasoned cruisers what happens - will we get refunded - kathy

 

Another feature of interest.

 

at200791_model.gif

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. . .Charley, within an hour, moved from hitting Tampa to hitting us as we watched on the television (August 13, 2004 one year ago exactly today),

 

Oh, goodness - I'd completely forgotten this was the anniversary of that horrible day. And it was Friday the 13th as well - Aaaack!!

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Oh, goodness - I'd completely forgotten this was the anniversary of that horrible day. And it was Friday the 13th as well - Aaaack!!

 

As you can imagine, living in the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda area, the television news and newspapers are full of the "anniversary". We were so lucky that this was such a small storm...more like a 5-mile wide tornado than a hurricane.

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just in case if a hurricane was to affect my cruise... what is carnivals policy about it?

 

They will change itinerary to avoid storms. They are not responsible for the weather. But they usually give a little OBC if they miss ports and can't replace them at another port.

 

Dan

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I think Penny might have been confusing Katrina with Ivan, which came through in '04, skipping the part of FL that had already taken 2 hits, and slamming, instead, into the Pensacola area.

 

 

You are corect Don, I did mix up the names of the storm.

 

Sorry about that everyone.

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Most of my family lives on the coast in Florida. We do not consider a tropical depression off the coast of Africa to be an immediate threat. What it does call for, though, is frequent viewing of the Weather Channel.



 

At this time, they are in watchful waiting mode. The Weather Channel has a great deal of experience and errs on the side of caution.

 

Hey, if you can't trust Jim Cantore and Steve Lyons, who can you trust? :p

 

Doc

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Dan - new cruiser - what is OBC?

 

On Board Credit.

 

We were scheduled to sail the PARADISE repo cruise Mia to LA 9/05-9/20/04. Hurricane Frances hit Miami 9/5 so we did not leave until 9/6. [Paradise stayed at sea until Frances passed Miami] Then instead of heading south to Aruba, we went west at full speed to get ahead of Hurricane Ivan. Once we went thru the Panama Canal we had many stops on the Pacific coast. Buuuut Hurricane Javier was in the way, once again we went west [due west] out into the Pacific to avoid Javier. We missed many port stops. We were given $200 per cabin [OBC] off our S&S bill. Many on board wanted more but that was that.

 

Dan

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A little addendum to mine and others posts above. After Frances 9/5/04 and Ivan was churning in the Gulf then. Jeanne came in and hit Vero Beach 9/26/04. 2 days after we got back from LA. It about ripped our house apart.

We spent 10 months in an 8'X27' camper. [FEMA special] Don't remember when or where Ivan made land fall, we were at sea then and had sailed around and ahead of Ivan.

 

Dan

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They will change itinerary to avoid storms. They are not responsible for the weather. But they usually give a little OBC if they miss ports and can't replace them at another port.

 

Dan

 

so even is a storm is near most likely we will still board and just try to get around the storm and given OBC is we missed any ports?

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We're leaving NJ on the 17th to go to Bermuda, St Thomas, St Martin, and San Juan.....will we miss most of this...? I know we are only guessing at this point...we are supposed to visit St. Martin on the 21st.

Thanks!!!

cdpteach

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so even is a storm is near most likely we will still board and just try to get around the storm and given OBC is we missed any ports?

 

OBC unlikely if substitute ports are available. OBC not a sure thing in any case. Read your contract, they do not have to give a thing.

 

Dan

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We're leaving NJ on the 17th to go to Bermuda, St Thomas, St Martin, and San Juan.....will we miss most of this...? I know we are only guessing at this point...we are supposed to visit St. Martin on the 21st.

Thanks!!!

cdpteach

 

I'm hoping and praying we will at least get to Bermuda.

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tropical Storm Dean Discussion Number 5

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al042007

1100 Am Edt Tue Aug 14 2007

 

Satellite Images...microwave Data And Quikscat Measurements Indicate That The Depression Has Reached Tropical Storm Status And Also That The Center Is Located Farther To The South And West Than Previously Indicated. Dean Has Developed A Small Central Dense Overcast Over The Center But Most Of The Convection Is Still Located To The West And South Of The Center. The Outflow Is Confined To The West And Southwest Since The Cyclone Is Still Embedded Within Easterly Shear. The Shear Is Forecast To Decrease And Most Of The Intensity Guidance Gradually Strengthens Dean. In Fact...dynamical Guidance Suggests That Dean Could Be Near The Lesser Antilles As A Hurricane With 100 To 110 Knots In Five Days.

Dean Appears To Be Moving Westward Or 265 Degrees At 20 Knots Around The Periphery Of A Strong Subtropical Ridge Which Is Expanding Westward. In The Short Term...2 To 3 Days...dean Should Continue To Move On A General Westward Track With A Gradual Decrease In Forward Speed. Thereafter...the Forecast Becomes Highly Uncertain Since Some Reliable Models Maintain A Strong Ridge To The North And Keep The Cyclone Moving Westward Across The Caribbean And Others Show A Weaker Ridge Resulting In A Gradual Turn To The West-northwest. The Official Forecast Follows The Consensus And Is A Little Bit To The South Of The Previous One...due To The Repositioning Of The Center...and Not Because We Have Changed The Forecast Reasoning.

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 14/1500z 11.7n 39.4w 35 Kt

12hr Vt 15/0000z 11.8n 42.0w 40 Kt

24hr Vt 15/1200z 11.8n 45.6w 45 Kt

36hr Vt 16/0000z 11.8n 48.5w 50 Kt

48hr Vt 16/1200z 12.0n 51.5w 60 Kt

72hr Vt 17/1200z 13.5n 56.5w 70 Kt

96hr Vt 18/1200z 15.5n 61.0w 80 Kt

120hr Vt 19/1200z 17.5n 65.0w 95 Kt

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