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TS Francis- Headed towards Caribbean/Bahamas


NJBill

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On GOS leaving Sunday. WIll be in Bahamas Wed/Thurs?????????

 

 

http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

 

WTNT41 KNHC 260837

TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2004

 

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A WELL-DEFINED CURVED

CLOUD BAND...DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND GOOD OUTFLOW. IN

FACT...THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BANDING-TYPE EYE WAS

TRYING TO FORM IN EARLIER IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN

INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS BUT IF THE FORMATION OF THE EYE MATERIALIZES

...WINDS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ESTIMATED. BECAUSE THE

SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THIS

FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS WHICH BRING

FRANCES TO NEAR 95 KNOTS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...A TURN OF THE

CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST COULD

BRING FRANCES TO A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.

 

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15

KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER

THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY

ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORCING FRANCES TO MOVE TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

THEREAFTER...ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OR WEAKENS...MODELS ARE

UNANIMOUSLY REDEVELOPING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF

FRANCES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT ON A TRACK BACK TO WEST-NORTHWEST

OR EVEN TOWARD THE WEST DEPENDING OF THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A STRONGER

RIDGE AND CONSEQUENTLY MOVE THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE WEST NEAR OR

OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE UK AND THE NOGAPS DEVELOP A

WEAKER RIDGE ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE WELL-NORTH OF THE LEEWARD

ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO OPTIONS. IT

IS SIGNIFICANT THAT EACH NEW RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS A

FORECAST TRACK FARTHER TO WEST...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THERE

WILL BE INTERESTING DAYS AHEAD.

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We not only have to worry going down but coming back up the east coast. As of now. the storm would not hit the bahamas until Friday/Sat, so we could be "out of the way" if we leave Thursday, the question is will they take a chance and go there in the first place?????

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We not only have to worry going down but coming back up the east coast. As of now. the storm would not hit the bahamas until Friday/Sat, so we could be "out of the way" if we leave Thursday, the question is will they take a chance and go there in the first place?????

 

Here's hoping it's gone with hardly any destruction the following Monday (when we're supposed to be there on the Mariner)!

 

BTW, here's a link that someone posted showing the five models NOAA uses to come up with the projected path. I personally like the path projected by the NOGAPs model (turning north and heading back out to sea)...

 

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_model.html

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Wtnt31 Knhc 261448

Tcpat1

Bulletin

Tropical Storm Frances Advisory Number 7

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Thu Aug 26 2004

 

...

At 11 Am Edt...1500z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Frances Was

Located Near Latitude 13.1 North...longitude 45.0 West Or About

1105 Miles...1775 Km...east Of The Lesser Antilles.

 

Frances Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 17 Mph...28 Km/hr.

This General Motion Is Forecast To Continue Today...with A Gradual

Decrease In Forward Speed Expected By Tonight.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 70 Mph...110 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours And

Frances Could Become A Hurricane Later Today.

 

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 75 Miles

...120 Km From The Center.

 

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 990 Mb...29.23 Inches.

 

Repeating The 11 Am Edt Position...13.1 N... 45.0 W. Movement

Toward...west-northwest Near 17 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 70 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 990 Mb.

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Yeah, I just got the "I told you so" e-mail from my dad, who is going on the cruise with us and has been belly-aching since we started planning about how a hurricane is going to hit when we're out there.

 

I don't want to get too worked-up yet, but it is depressing a bit.

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You can point out to your dad that the hurricane season includes HALF of the year - June 1 through November 30 and hurricanes can and do happen at any time of year. I have been through two hurricanes at sea - and while the experience wasn't exactly fun, it wasn't as bad as you would think. Yes, the ship moved a lot and many were sea sick. BUT, there are drugs to help cope with the worst of it - and each WAS an adventrue we still talk about many many years later.

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Okay I'm a first-time cruiser here... What will happen if Frances heads right to the bahamas? Will the ship just hang out at sea the entire time?

 

Could they even get docking rights to dock at different ports other than where we planned?

 

I am so nervous. This is my first vacation in a really long time. We had planned on a sunny, tropical trip. Plus, I've always wanted to go to the bahamas so I was really excited about that. That is why we picked the cruise in the first place. I will be really disappointed if we don't make it.

 

If they just stay at sea, do they refund you any money?

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Okay I'm a first-time cruiser here... What will happen if Frances heads right to the bahamas? Will the ship just hang out at sea the entire time?

 

Could they even get docking rights to dock at different ports other than where we planned?

 

Yes, and yes. Either one could happen.

 

 

If they just stay at sea, do they refund you any money?

 

No, but sometimes they do offer free drinks or shipboard credit if something happens. It depends on whether they can substitute another port or not.

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Would RC announce alternate plans BEFORE the ship leaves port? In other words, if they announce alternate plans, I would back out of the cruise before we go (I know about having to pay fees).

 

I had my doubts about whether I would like cruising in the first place. But I thought I would give it a shot. I will not be a happy camper if I have to spend my entire vacation on a ship.

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The latest national weather service track has the storm moving due west after tomorrow,which would make it go "under" but in the "vicinity" of the Bahamas, but better than the West Northwest track.. the problem is that most of the weather models do not agree on the track, but they do agree that it wil continue to build strength.....We may still make the Bahamas on Tues/Wed.........have to keep an eye out..........dont panic yet.............

 

http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi.

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After discussing with our on-site meteorologist, he told me the reason why the models are in disagreement is because of a trough that is north of the storm right now. Three of the models say the trough is going to weaken, which means Frances would move north and would be expected to pass between Bermuda and NC sometime next week.

 

The other two show the trough staying roughly the same strength, causing Frances to pass south of the Bahamas and towards Mexico.

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I have just pulled up the latest weather report and it shows proposed path of Frances. It is expected to turn North and stay in the Atlantic. If it follows the couse it is on now and does not turn, it will not hit Puerto Rico until Tuesday morning. All of the experts (ha-ha) say it will turn and not hit the US at all. We can only hope. Kay

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I have just pulled up the latest weather report and it shows proposed path of Frances. It is expected to turn North and stay in the Atlantic. If it follows the couse it is on now and does not turn, it will not hit Puerto Rico until Tuesday morning. All of the experts (ha-ha) say it will turn and not hit the US at all. We can only hope. Kay

 

Kay -

Would you mind posting where you pulled the info from? I like looking at as many sources as possible. :)

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I just checked the weather again on Francis....we will be OK for departing this Saturday....but not sure if out course or ports will be latered ....I really could care less where we go, or if we rock and roll due to the waters-just being on the ship is enough for me!!!

 

I pray that this will not be a full fledged hurricane and that no one looses out on thier cruises, or more importantly that Florida or any other city/states are not hit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Please let it go out to sea and go bye-bye :)

 

 

***

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