Frances to Visit Port canaveral

[Jacquelyn11]

The 11pm report from an Atlanta news station showed a Vero Beach as a possible land fall with the storm then shooting straight up to the Ohio Valley. This puts in a path over the Atlanta area. A weak, stationary low pressure system will not "push" Frances enough keep it off this projected path.

In 1995, we lived thru the reminants of Hurrican Opal. We had trees down everywhere due to the winds. The previous several years have been almost drought dry with this last spring being somewhat wet. This makes all the root systems of the trees very unstable. My DH is going to crank up our generator to make sure it's working.

Right now I'm as nervous as a cat's tail in a room full of rocking chairs! :eek:

(this is also why I cruse in MAY!) :)

Jacquelyn :D

[hunterafri]

[color=#3300cc][font=Verdana]Well Gang, the 11PM forecast is not very helpful. [/font][/color]


[color=#3300cc][font=Verdana]-[color=#000000]THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/14. THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY CLEAR
CUT THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREEING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE AND DIVIDE INTO THREE DISTINCT TRACK PATTERNS. THE GFDL AND GFDN RACE FRANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA IN 96-120 HR...THE GFS...MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM...AND UKMET MODELS TAKE FRANCES MORE SLOWLY INTO EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 96-120 HR...WHILE THE NOGAPS .. LBAR..12Z ECMWF...AND THE ETA MODELS MOVE FRANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA IN ABOUT 72 HR. THE 18Z GFDL MODEL ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. IF THE GFDN AND GFDL MODELS ARE IGNORED...THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL BE THE EVENTUAL LANDFALL REGION. ONE DISTURBING PIECE OF INFORMATION IS THAT ALL OF THE MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFDN AGREE THAT FRANCES WILL SLOW DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 72 HOURS AND THE GFS EVEN REDUCES THE FORWARD SPEED TO 4 KT IN 96 HR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT STEERING CURRENTS MAY BRIEFLY COLLAPSE AS FRANCES APPROACHES THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY HANDLE THE DEEP LOW OFF THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. COAST AS IT DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND HOW THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO THAT DIGGING LOW/TROUGH. THE GFDL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INITIALIZING TOO WEAK OF A RIDGE AROUND BERMUDA...SO LITTLE WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THE GFDL/GFDN SOLUTIONS. A SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG WAS PLACED IN THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72-96 HR TO INDICATE SOME BUILDING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN A LITTLE LEFT OF TRACK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL.

[/color][/font][/color]
[color=#3300cc][font=Verdana]The problem with all of this is that they are now saying it will slow down or even stop right next to Florida. Those people northwest of the hurricane will get hit really bad since the winds always go counter clockwise.[/font][/color]

[color=#3300cc][font=Verdana]Best Regards,[/font][/color]

[color=#3300cc][font=Verdana]Vic[/font][/color]

[color=#3300cc][font=Verdana]59 Bahama Star, [/font][/color][color=#3300cc][font=Verdana]73 Rembrandt, 79 Starwind, 80 Norway, 80 Nordic Prince
84 Iceland
85 Germany
86 Sweden
87 Norway, Holland, Denmark
88 Germany
89 England, France, Italy
90 Brazil, Peru, Argentina
91 Columbia
92 Venezuela
96 Zimbabwe
97 South Africa
97 Peru
98 Argentina
98 Kenya, Tanzania
99 South Africa
00 Zimbabwe, South Africa
03/16/03 Noordam, [/font][/color][color=#3300cc][font=Verdana]11/17/04 Royal Princess, [/font][/color][color=#3300cc][font=Verdana]05/01/05 Jewel of the Seas[/font][/color]

[Joe_Scarfone]

I don't think that the storm will stall offshore of the state. That just doesn't seem right to me, they say its moving too fast now, then all of a sudden stop, I don't see it.

I hope it just turns out to see. I left the Tampa area for Orlando during Charley, they eye went right over us as a Cat 2. I don't want to go through another hurricane for a long while, but I don't know whats gonna happen.

I'm supposed to stay at the Radisson at Port Canaveral on Saturday for my pre-cruise onboard Mariner. Don't know if thats gonna happen now.

Lets all hope that this monster turns away and/or weakens dramaticaly.

-Joe

[LibertyBelle]

The weather report on WFTV.com at 11 was that it could possibly :slow down" not stall, but slow down which would be even worse because it would have more time to strengthen. He explaind why it would do that based on the weather already in the area (high pressure, etc) but I don't remember exactlly what that was.

Anyway, we are getting prepared here in Orlando, just making sure the cars are filled with gas, that there is food and water in the house, that kind of stuff and then we watch.

When I went to bed last night they said it would come in at Vero, when I got up this morning it was Melbourne, when I left for work it was Jacksonville, at work they said Georgia,maybe the Carolinas, when I got home it was back to Melbourne. This is very unpredicatable and all we can do is wait and see what happens... it will change course a few more times before deciding where it wants to go.

For those of you heading out this week on cruises, good luck and have fun...Mystery cruises it seems to be...as of 11pm Freeport was in the direct line of fire and Nassau was looking for some pretty nasty weather ahead...Good luck :)

[hunterafri]

Good Morning Guys;

If you look back the last 48 hours of where Francis was going to hit according to all of the maps you will see that the "direct hit spot" has been going further and further south. The reason again is that ridge. They have been talking about it weakening "over the next 72 hours" for close to 72 hours and it still has not weakened. The general feeling is that it will hit Florida somewhere. One other point and that is the wobble means that it can move anywhere, ask the people in Punta Gorda or in Homestead. Having somehow survived Andrew and Charley, I am headed for TN on Friday morning if it is still pointing towards FL.

The airports by the way are the last places that close. It is the airlines that cancel flights while the airport is still open. RSW (Ft Myers airport) never closed on Friday the 13th even though Charley was 20 miles away.

The latest nhc discussion is now "THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 285/15. FRANCES REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 72 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A UNREALISTIC LOOKING MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR IS SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. AFTER 72 HR...THERE IS DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS NORTH OF FRANCES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOR THAT TIME IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAR AS THE UKMET WHICH MARCHES FRANCES WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO."

Best Regards,

Vic

[color=#3300cc]59 Bahama Star, [/color][color=#3300cc][font=Verdana]73 Rembrandt, 79 Starwind, 80 Norway, 80 Nordic Prince
84 Iceland
85 Germany
86 Sweden
87 Norway, Holland, Denmark
88 Germany
89 England, France, Italy
90 Brazil, Peru, Argentina
91 Columbia
92 Venezuela
96 Zimbabwe
97 South Africa
97 Peru
98 Argentina
98 Kenya, Tanzania
99 South Africa
00 Zimbabwe, South Africa
03/16/03 Noordam, [/font][font=Verdana]11/17/04 Royal Princess, [/font][font=Verdana]05/01/05 Jewel of the Seas[/font][/color]

[flamingosun]

The Melbourne airport just announced the closing of its terminal after the last fllight of the day today.

[i]This is from the Orlando airport's website[/i]:
[font=Trebuchet MS][color=purple]Orlando International Airport will remain open; however, flight operations will be determined by each individual airline, under the guidance of the FAA.
Therefore, [b]before arriving at the airport, [/b]please contact your airline directly to obtain information about specific flights[/color].[/font]
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[font=Trebuchet MS]Cape Canaveral Hospital started evacuating all patients about an hour ago.[/font]
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[font=Trebuchet MS]Brevard county will have a dusk to dawn curfew in effect beginning tomorrow.[/font]
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