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christinabeena

Gustav

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i agree very exciting but gut wrenching as well as long as it does not hit miami by sat morning and i get on the ship i really dont care where it goes as long as it goes east west south or even north lol

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We too are leaving out of Miami this Saturday on the Liberty and have been watching this all unfold.

 

I am getting a little nervous. With the path projected, I don't see how we will be able to sail Western Caribbean. Anyone else sailing on Liberty getting nervous? This will be first cruise for my DH, DB and SIL and it looks like it will be quite an adventure!

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Ugh, not looking good for me.

 

I leave out of tampa on the Carnival legend this Sunday Aug 31st.

 

First stop is supposed to be Grand Cayman.

 

At least the cone of projection doesn't include the port of tampa anymore, but I've lived in Florida all my life and there is one thing I know about hurricane projections, you can't count on them at all.

 

Just look at what Faye did...talk about your whacky storms. That thing just would go away, 4 days of freakin rain and gloom.

 

Luckily my house is up so high, that if I were to get flooded, that means other people's houses are completely under water.

 

 

So I've been on many cruises during hurricane season, but coming out of the port of tampa on Sunday, I just don't see a way we can completely dodge the effects of this storm, were gonna have some bumpy seas.

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Captain Jack, where are you seeing the spaghetti models that you see 6 of the 7 showing it hitting Grand Cayman? On here it only shows 1 having it hit Grand Cayman.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_model.html

 

That's the one ... with the latest update it looks like they have moved a bit North of GC ... Brac and LC still in the path ... those models show a general projection, if 6 of 7 are in the vicinity there is a fair chance it will effect GC.....if the storm center stays on any of those tracks the port visits in GC may be canceled.... if the right front quadrant stays north of GC they may be able to tender out of the South Sound, but the Friday morning visits may be a bit stormy!

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We too are leaving out of Miami this Saturday on the Liberty and have been watching this all unfold.

 

I am getting a little nervous. With the path projected, I don't see how we will be able to sail Western Caribbean. Anyone else sailing on Liberty getting nervous? This will be first cruise for my DH, DB and SIL and it looks like it will be quite an adventure!

 

You guys should be fine, although your probably correct about not going to western ports. it all depends on how fast this hurricane moves. The faster is moves, the better....if it slows down....not so good.

 

If the western ports are too dangerous, you'll be rerouted to eastern ports. Which are also very nice, although I do like the western carribean a bit better, but that's just me.

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That's the one ... with the latest update it looks like they have moved a bit North of GC ... Brac and LC still in the path ... those models show a general projection, if 6 of 7 are in the vicinity there is a fair chance it will effect GC.....if the storm center stays on any of those tracks the port visits in GC may be canceled.... if the right front quadrant stays north of GC they may be able to tender out of the South Sound, but the Friday morning visits may be a bit stormy!

 

Okay, I just didn't know if you had another site that I haven't found.

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Ugh, not looking good for me.

 

I leave out of tampa on the Carnival legend this Sunday Aug 31st.

 

First stop is supposed to be Grand Cayman.

 

At least the cone of projection doesn't include the port of tampa anymore, but I've lived in Florida all my life and there is one thing I know about hurricane projections, you can't count on them at all.

 

Just look at what Faye did...talk about your whacky storms. That thing just would go away, 4 days of freakin rain and gloom.

 

Luckily my house is up so high, that if I were to get flooded, that means other people's houses are completely under water.

 

 

So I've been on many cruises during hurricane season, but coming out of the port of tampa on Sunday, I just don't see a way we can completely dodge the effects of this storm, were gonna have some bumpy seas.

 

 

You are so right about the paths. Look at Wilma back in 2005. It stayed over Cancun/Cozumel for 45 days then turned around and came through Collier County. Very strange. Fay was unbelievable as well.

 

It's something that everyone needs to keep an eye on because anything can happen when it's this far out.

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...Now that I look at the schedule, the Grand Cayman visits that may be effected are Mariner of the Seas, the Conquest and the Triumph ... those are scheduled for Thursday the 28th .... nothing for the rest of the weekend... so if Gustav stalls a bit between Jamaica and Cuba they should be OK ...

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Mariner is sailing the eastern carribean route this week instead of the western (according to the rccl site).

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The way it is looking now for us is that we will be able to sail out of Mobile. The question is how quickly we can sail southwest to get out of its path. I definitely am parking in the garage this time in case it makes landfall there. Mobile got several feet of tidal surge with Katrina.

 

The other worry is that if the storm hits MS/AL, not being home to take care of things.

 

Hurricane track record for us so far

 

Katrina hit on a Monday Aug 2005, we sailed that Saturday on the Holiday

 

Wilma hit Cozumel Oct 2005, we sailed on the Sun right behind it and then had Beta to the south of us.

 

Dean hit a week before we sailed on the Conquest Sep 2007, Felix went to the south of us while we were on the cruise. Humberto hit Galveston 3 days after we got back.

 

Tropical Storm forms off Florida panhandle while I am on the Fantasy. The MS River is about to be closed when it suddenly turns north. I miss out on an extra day at sea.

 

I fly all the way to New York City to go on the NCL Spirit only to have Hurricane Noel sitting outside the harbor as we leave. We had some nice 15 footers.

 

TD Fay hits us on Monday. We are sailing Saturday on the Holiday.

 

(Anyone see the irony of our Holiday sailings. :) )

 

Dave

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You are so right about the paths. Look at Wilma back in 2005. It stayed over Cancun/Cozumel for 45 days then turned around and came through Collier County. Very strange. Fay was unbelievable as well.

 

 

 

Wow 45 days. LOL I think you meant hours.

 

Dave

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Yes Jetskier i do. There is a person on the other cc boards that has some questions. I told her to find you and ask cause in my book you are the best one to answer her questions.

I am sure others could answer her questions but i feel she needs to ask you.

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From the latest forecast I'm hoping it won't affect us. We leave on the Valor for the Western Caribbean this Sunday, going to Grand Cayman first on Tuesday. Keep your fingers crossed for us!!

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My brother is on the Conquest right now. How can I tell if they are redirecting the ship and taking him to other ports? They are supposed to be in Jamaica tomorrow and Grand Cayman on Wednesday. Doesn't look like it's exactly going to be good sunny weather. Wonder what they will do.

 

 

My friend is on the Conquest now also. I looked at a ship tracker and it seems to be lower part of the Gulf. I'm wondering if they will maybe go to Cozumel first, then Caymen, then Jamaica instead of the other way around.

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I leave this Friday out of Miami on the Fascination to the Bahamas for the 3 days short cruise. It seems like my path is clear!

I was a little worried yesterday! Just hope that the weather stays somewhat nice.....any deviation to the east or north will definitely affect us!

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I leave this Friday out of Miami on the Fascination to the Bahamas for the 3 days short cruise. It seems like my path is clear!

I was a little worried yesterday! Just hope that the weather stays somewhat nice.....any deviation to the east or north will definitely affect us!

 

You are definitely looking better with that track. We still have another day or so to go before we will know for sure.

Dave

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/181113.shtml?5day?large#contents

 

This is the newest image from NOAA. Not looking good guys.

I found these co-ordinates and projected windspeeds at the NHC site..

_______________________________

000

WTNT42 KNHC 261445

TCDAT2

HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 6

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008

1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

 

-------------------

 

ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO

POTENTIALLY LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 26/1500Z 17.9N 72.4W 80 KT

12HR VT 27/0000Z 18.6N 73.3W 75 KT

24HR VT 27/1200Z 19.1N 74.6W 80 KT

36HR VT 28/0000Z 19.3N 75.9W 85 KT

48HR VT 28/1200Z 19.4N 77.3W 90 KT

72HR VT 29/1200Z 19.9N 80.2W 100 KT

96HR VT 30/1200Z 21.5N 83.5W 105 KT

120HR VT 31/1200Z 24.0N 87.0W 105 KT

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The way it is looking now for us is that we will be able to sail out of Mobile. The question is how quickly we can sail southwest to get out of its path. I definitely am parking in the garage this time in case it makes landfall there. Mobile got several feet of tidal surge with Katrina.

 

The other worry is that if the storm hits MS/AL, not being home to take care of things.

 

Hurricane track record for us so far

 

Katrina hit on a Monday Aug 2005, we sailed that Saturday on the Holiday

 

Wilma hit Cozumel Oct 2005, we sailed on the Sun right behind it and then had Beta to the south of us.

 

Dean hit a week before we sailed on the Conquest Sep 2007, Felix went to the south of us while we were on the cruise. Humberto hit Galveston 3 days after we got back.

 

Tropical Storm forms off Florida panhandle while I am on the Fantasy. The MS River is about to be closed when it suddenly turns north. I miss out on an extra day at sea.

 

I fly all the way to New York City to go on the NCL Spirit only to have Hurricane Noel sitting outside the harbor as we leave. We had some nice 15 footers.

 

TD Fay hits us on Monday. We are sailing Saturday on the Holiday.

 

(Anyone see the irony of our Holiday sailings. :) )

 

Dave

 

Note to self: don't book a cruise the same week as Dave!!!;)

 

May you have a safe cruise with great weather - wherever you sail!

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Wow 45 days. LOL I think you meant hours.

 

Dave

 

LOL, see what happens when I do 2 things at once! I meant 4-5 days, in other words 4 to 5 days.!

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Sailing out of Mobile on Monday to Progresso and Cozumel.

 

This could be bad on a few fronts. The cruise, family at home in New Orleans, ports... Bit too far out to freak but this sucks.

 

I'm already driving from New Orleans to Mobile because of the oil spill, if they move the ship more to the east that would be depressing.

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Note to self: don't book a cruise the same week as Dave!!!;)

 

May you have a safe cruise with great weather - wherever you sail!

 

Well I have yet to have a ship diverted. On the Sun we did miss Cozumel and Cancun as the damage was too great.

 

Dave

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Sailing out of Mobile on Monday to Progresso and Cozumel.

 

This could be bad on a few fronts. The cruise, family at home in New Orleans, ports... Bit too far out to freak but this sucks.

 

I'm already driving from New Orleans to Mobile because of the oil spill, if they move the ship more to the east that would be depressing.

 

I agree. We're on the Fantasy 9/1. We are driving to Mobile (originally N.O.) from Shreveport. We usually leave home very early on cruise day, drive 5 or 6 hours, board the ship by noon, eat a burger, get a drink, and start having fun!

 

If Gustave comes toward Mobile, where would we sail from? Too much further East would mean an extra day of travel. Would we sail at all? I don't care where we go (we could have five sea days and we'd be happy) we just want to be on the ship!

 

I know it must seem like we all forget about those residing in the path of a storm and are more concerned about our vacation plans but would happen if Gustave hit near Mobile Monday?

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