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CoachTerry14

Hurricane Ike

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Well, We are to set sail sunday on the valor.. im kind of guessing the bahamas wll be taken out of the itinerary.. ;( i hope carnival reroutes us to the other side ... time will tell.. last year i went in august and it was just the reverse problem..

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Ike is now a Cat 4 hurricane, unbelievable. I just so want November 30th to be here, I hate living like this every week waiting to see what happens next.

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I'm really curious as to what will happen with our cruise now. We're leaving Tampa on Sunday and are supposed to have Monday at sea, Tuesday is Grand Cayman, then I can't remember the order, but Roatan, Cozumel and Belize followed after that, with Saturday being another at sea day.....

 

With Ike being projected to go into the Gulf......what's going to happen?

 

Jennifer

I am curious where you heard Ike may go the way of the Gulf? I thought it was going to turn Northward at some somepoint...its all so hard to figure out;)

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I am curious where you heard Ike may go the way of the Gulf? I thought it was going to turn Northward at some somepoint...its all so hard to figure out;)

 

Still too early, but I also heard the same thing (turning north) and taking basically the same path as Hanna...

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Some of the private forecasting groups indicate into GOM and then North Turn...which could put it like a Katrina or Rita. I doubt Gustav sucked enough heat out of the big GOM heat engine to force Ike to cool off...

 

I expect our ERT to go to Louisiana later next week to work relief efforts, but that could be curtailed quickly if Ike comes a knocking on the Gulf Coast again.

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I am curious where you heard Ike may go the way of the Gulf? I thought it was going to turn Northward at some somepoint...its all so hard to figure out;)

 

I didn't hear that anywhere! Sorry for the confusion. It was me simply seeing the westward movement and not knowing that it was going to take a turn.

 

Sorry!

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We are "supposed" to be sailing out of Orlando on Sunday...with Monday in Freeport and Tuesday in Nassau...yea, thats not happening!

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Yikes! We are scheduled to leave tomorrow (5th) out of Port Canaveral going to Nassua on Saturday and CocoCay on Sunday. Scheduled to disembark on Monday morning. So far no changes from RCCL but can't believe that we'll make those stops. Oh well, a trip to nowhere is better than no cruise at all!

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Yikes! We are scheduled to leave tomorrow (5th) out of Port Canaveral going to Nassua on Saturday and CocoCay on Sunday. Scheduled to disembark on Monday morning. So far no changes from RCCL but can't believe that we'll make those stops. Oh well, a trip to nowhere is better than no cruise at all!

 

 

I hope that you guys are safe! Have a great time and bring that ship back by Monday...cause we're scheduled to be on it :D

 

Joking aside, have a wonderful time on your cruise!

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Some of the latest model runs put IKE very close to the southern Florida coast on Tuesday or even into the GOM. Obviously conditions can and will change. Many complex issues are going on in the upper atmoshpere. Stand by !!!

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keep the updates coming...its hard to obsess on the hurricane websites while trying to finish all my work before I go on vacation;)

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000

Wtnt34 Knhc 042031

Tcpat4

Bulletin

Hurricane Ike Advisory Number 15

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al092008

500 Pm Ast Thu Sep 04 2008

 

...ike Expected To Turn Westward Overnight....

 

Interests In The Southeastern Bahamas And The Turks And Caicos

Islands Should Closely Monitor The Progress Of Ike.

 

At 500 Pm Ast...2100z...the Center Of Hurricane Ike Was Located Near

Latitude 23.6 North...longitude 58.2 West Or About 505 Miles...815

Km...north-northeast Of The Leeward Islands.

 

Ike Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 14 Mph...22 Km/hr. A

Gradual Turn Toward The West And West-southwest Is Expected Over

The Next 48 Hours. On This Track The Hurricane Will Continue To

Move Over The Open Waters Of The West-central Atlantic During The

Next Couple Of Days.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 135 Mph...215 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Ike Is An Extremely Dangerous Category Four Hurricane On The

Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Weakening Is Forecast During The Next

24 To 48 Hours.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 45 Miles...75 Km...from

The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140

Miles...220 Km.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 945 Mb...27.91 Inches.

 

Repeating The 500 Pm Ast Position...23.6 N...58.2 W. Movement

Toward...west-northwest Near 14 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...135

Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...945 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At

1100 Pm Ast.

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Ike's long-term fate has two main possibilities:

 

1) Ike may hit eastern Cuba, as forecast by the latest (12Z, 8am EDT) runs of the GFDL and ECMWF models, and a number of ensemble members of the latest 12Z GFS model (Figure 2). A hit on Cuba would severely disrupt the storm, weakening it to a Category 1 or 2. Ike could then move on into the Gulf of Mexico and re-intensify, as forecast by the ECMWF model.

 

2) Ike may plow through the Bahamas and come very close to South Florida (the consensus of the HWRF, NOGAPS, and GFS models). A trough of low pressure may then pull Ike to north. This turn to the north might occur over Florida, or over the western Bahamas, within 200 miles of the Florida coast. In the latter case, North Carolina might be at risk. The recent model trend has been to depict a weaker trough, resulting in Ike getting stranded, like Fay and Gustav did. Ike would resume a slow motion to the west as ridge of pressure builds in, potentially crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.

 

There is a third possibility--Ike may recurve before hitting the U.S., and move harmlessly out to sea. That possibility appears lower probability than cases 1 and 2 above, at this point.

 

Intensity forecast for Ike

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have warmed to 28.5°C and will warm an extra degree over the next two days. However, the shear is forecast to be unfavorable for intensification through Friday night: 20-30 knots. The high shear may be able to disrupt the inner core of Ike, reducing it to a Category 2 storm by Friday night. Re-intensification is likely beginning on Saturday morning, when the shear is forecast to fall below 10 knots. The shear is forecast to remain below 10 knots Saturday through Tuesday. On Sunday, when Ike may be approaching the southeastern Bahamas, it should encounter cooler waters stirred up by Hurricane Hanna. This may limit the re-intensification. Once Ike crosses Hanna's wake and enters the central and western Bahamas, the oceanic heat content reaches a maximum--80 kJ/cm^2, similar to the levels of heat content that fueled Gustav's rapid intensification south of Cuba. Ike may also be moving under an upper-level anticyclone then, which would provide very favorable conditions for intensification.

 

Ike's projected damage

The primary danger in the Bahama Islands will be wind damage, since the storm surge typically flows around small islands. However, a Category 4 or 5 hurricane is capable of generating a maximum storm surge of 13 feet in the Turks and Caicos Islands on the right side of the eye, if it makes a direct hit on an island.

 

On Haiti and in Cuba, there is the potential for very heavy rains of 4-8 inches or higher, beginning on Saturday night. These rains could be particularly devastating for northern Haiti, where the ground is already saturated due to Hurricane Hanna's rains. Hanna killed at least 90 people in Haiti, and the situation there is being described as desperate.

 

The first Hurricane Hunter mission into Ike is scheduled for Friday morning.

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on cruise schedules for all cruise lines will be impacted. Between itinerary changes, cancellations, shortented cruises etc. it could get complicated very easily if the weather center predictions are accurate. Bargains galore will be had for some fortunate folks no doubt.

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FIRELT5 ~ Thank you so much for your input here. I've enjoyed reading your posts.

 

I'm flying into Miami tomorrow.

 

Good luck everyone.

 

Debbie

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FIRELT5 ~ Thank you so much for your input here. I've enjoyed reading your posts.

 

I'm flying into Miami tomorrow.

 

Good luck everyone.

 

Debbie

 

Have a great Cruise :)

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