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CoachTerry14

Hurricane Ike

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Ay Ay AY

 

I am so scared guys,

 

I live in Miami, so going thru this is so stressing plus my cruise is in 3 weeks.:eek:

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In Ft. Lauderdale myself and supposedly (note the supposedly) cruising next Friday.... Betting things are going to get a bit dicey next week. Will keep my fingers crossed for us!!

 

Amanda

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hopefully the storms will die down...if not all take care....must be scary....went through hurricane bob one year while on vacation in virgina beach.....very scary....fascinting at the same time though...good luck to all...

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We're flying into Miami on Friday morning, Sept 12, sailing on Sept 14th. I refuse to be Chicken Little, if anything goes wrong we have insurance and will report back here about how it worked out. :D

 

I hope that everyone who lives in Florida is safe and that the storm doesn't hit land hard. Our vacation can be rescheduled; people's lives and personal belongings are more important than our vacation. I'll be thinking of the residents and their families who may be affected by any of these storms.

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We are sailing on the Destiny on 21st sept do you think Ike and co will have gone by then(i know you can never tell but what do you guys think).

I also realise that other storms may brew that i will have to watch.

GIVE ME YOUR GUESSES!!!!

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Ike will be gone by then, but there is absolutely no way to tell if there will be another storm. Once again, the reason we cruise in Nov.

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Ike will be gone by then, but there is absolutely no way to tell if there will be another storm. Once again, the reason we cruise in Nov.

Wish i could get the time off work and i would join the winter cruisers

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Thanks FIRELT5...your extra info is really helpful and feeds our needs to know:)

I am really hoping to see a better update in the morning..crossing my fingers for all of us;)

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It seems that the hurricane season is getting busy each year. After worrying prior to our August cruise last year I only travel in November or Early spring to avoid the hurricane season.

 

Good luck,

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We are sailing on the valor on sept 21 right next to the Destiny dont worry you will see its going to be fine on that day :D

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There has been rumors that they now have the technology to seed storms to reduce their intensity, They tried this during hurricane Rita after Katrina slammed N>O>. Didn't anyone notice that Gustav was a 4 and then right after it went over Cuba it went into an area of the Gulf they refer to as the sweet spot and it didn't increase, it died down to a manageable storm. Same thing with Hanna, came close and they seeded it to a manageable storm. I think they are waiting for Ike to get closer and then just watch, it will magically fizzle down. The government doesn't want to pay for anymore huge damage events after Andrew, Hugo and Katrina. I just wonder why they are keeping it a secret.:confused:

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We are sailing on the Destiny on 21st sept do you think Ike and co will have gone by then(i know you can never tell but what do you guys think).

I also realise that other storms may brew that i will have to watch.

GIVE ME YOUR GUESSES!!!!

 

 

DH and I will be on the same cruise as you.

I guess there will be a hurricane or 2 around... we're in the hurricane season.

I'm not going to worry about it... captains are pretty good at avoiding them.

We sailed in hurricane season last year too.... we just got diverted one time!!

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Josephine is forming behind Ike. I am watching closely as I have a friend in New Orleans who had to evacuate for Gustav. Good luck to everyone cruising hope it all goes well.

 

Candi

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I saw something on weather channel that said because of the upper atmosphere the warm water didn't get hanna going as much. Don't know if this is a fact, just something I saw this morning.

 

Candi

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FIRELT5 --- I also enjoy reading your posts. I have no idea where you get the information, but please continue to post what info you have. Your info seems to be much easier to understand than the reports I've tried to read on other weather websites.

 

Question for you or anyone else that might know. I was staying on top of Gustav's track a long time because in the earlier forecasts it appeared that it "might" move towards us in TX. Obviously, it didn't. I constantly checked the computer models on Wunderground. I decided to do some research on the different models. From what I recall, it said the most accurate one was GFDL? The other top three were GFS, UKMET and NOGAPS? The GFDL is the dark blue line on the computer model chart. It did seem to be the most accurate when tracking Gustav. Is that the one they use when they try to target where it will hit or do they just take an average of all the models? Do you agree that GFDL is the best one and should we just keep our eye on that one for a more accurate prediction? And is GFDL just accurate for short term (3 days or less?)

Am I making any sense or do I not know what I'm talking about? LOL:confused:

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FIRELT5 --- I also enjoy reading your posts. I have no idea where you get the information, but please continue to post what info you have. Your info seems to be much easier to understand than the reports I've tried to read on other weather websites.

 

Question for you or anyone else that might know. I was staying on top of Gustav's track a long time because in the earlier forecasts it appeared that it "might" move towards us in TX. Obviously, it didn't. I constantly checked the computer models on Wunderground. I decided to do some research on the different models. From what I recall, it said the most accurate one was GFDL? The other top three were GFS, UKMET and NOGAPS? The GFDL is the dark blue line on the computer model chart. It did seem to be the most accurate when tracking Gustav. Is that the one they use when they try to target where it will hit or do they just take an average of all the models? Do you agree that GFDL is the best one and should we just keep our eye on that one for a more accurate prediction? And is GFDL just accurate for short term (3 days or less?)

Am I making any sense or do I not know what I'm talking about? LOL:confused:

 

 

 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/F2.html

 

 

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008090500-ike09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

 

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008090500-ike09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

 

 

GFDI & HWRF are both Tropical models

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Why hurricanes recurve

The prevailing winds over the U.S. are from west to east, but in the tropics, they blow east to west. This pattern arises because we live on the surface of a spinning sphere that is heated unequally at the poles and equator. When a hurricane forms in the tropics, it moves east to west with the prevailing winds. However, if the storm gets far enough north, it will suddenly encounter a flow of air moving the opposite direction. This will force the hurricane to move northwards and then eastwards, as the storm gets caught up in the west to east flow of air. The boundary between these two air flow regimes fluctuates, depending upon the position of the jet stream. When a low pressure system moves across the U.S., the jet stream dips to the south, bringing the prevailing west to east winds over the U.S. closer to the tropics. Thus, hurricanes are more prone to recurve to the north when there is an approaching low pressure system passing to their north.

 

When hurricanes collide

Many readers have asked if Hanna and Ike could collide and make a super hurricane. Well, hurricanes cannot collide to make a bigger hurricane. When hurricanes get within about 900 miles of each, they begin to interact. There are three possible outcomes:

 

1) The larger storm will destroy the smaller one. The larger storm's upper-level outflow will bring hostile wind shear over the smaller storm, and the larger storm may steal the smaller storm's moisture. This occurred in 2005, when Hurricane Wilma destroyed Tropical Storm Alpha over Hispaniola.

 

2) Both hurricanes will compete for the same energy, resulting in weakening of both storms.

 

3) The storms will rotate around a common center of rotation (the Fujiwhara Effect), before going on their separate ways. Hurricane Humberto and Hurricane Iris took part in a brief Fujiwhara interaction in 1995. Iris then began interacting with a third storm, Tropical Storm Karen, which orbited and later merged with the more intense Iris. In

cases, the two storms will merge, such as occurred in 1997 in the Pacific with Typhoon

Yule and TD 16W.

 

Sometimes, a recurving hurricane will leave behind an enhanced trough of low pressure that will act to help recurve the storm behind it along the same path. This is possible this week with Ike and Hanna.

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I want to say up front that I am very concerned about the future track and intensity of Ike and the potential impacts on the United States coastline, especially south Florida, the Florida Keys and the Bahamas.

 

Recent satellite images early this morning indicate that the eye of Ike has lost a little of its definition and the cloud tops of the eyewall have warmed somewhat. Maximum sustained winds early this morning are near 125 mph. Due to forecast shear over the next 24 to 36 hours, some weakening of Ike is anticipated and the hurricane will likely drop down to Category 2 strength by tomorrow. The global models then forecast that the shear will lessen after tomorrow and Ike will still be over sea surface temperatures near 84 degrees Fahrenheit. Therefore, restrengthening is anticipated from Sunday through Tuesday and Ike may strengthen back up to Category 4 strength. The HWRF model forecasts Ike to be a major hurricane early next week, but the GFDL model does not because its forecast track goes over Cuba. Meanwhile, the SHIPS and LGEM models forecast a weaker hurricane, although the LGEM prediction appears more realistic since it does a better job of taking into account the eventual lessening of the shear. It should be noted that the LGEM model forecasts Ike to be a 125 mph hurricane on Tuesday morning. Therefore, it seems very possible that Ike will be a major hurricane of Category 3 or Category 4 strength early next week.

 

A ridge of high pressure has settled in directly north of Ike, as a trough of low pressure departs Atlantic Canada. Ike is tracking due west at a forward speed of 15 mph. Hanna is forecast to depart the western Atlantic and it curves north and then northeast over this weekend and all of the global models are forecasting that a ridge of high pressure will build in and extend southwestward to Florida by late this weekend and early next week. A key unknown for the forecast track of Ike early next week is how strong that ridge of high pressure will be and how long it will remain intact. In general during the last day or two the models have been trending toward the ridge staying in place longer, resulting in tracks maintaining the generally westward motion longer and delaying any potential turn to the north. That trend has continued somewhat early this morning, but the consensus model guidance has only shifted west slightly on Tuesday into Wednesday. The overall model trend and its related upper air weather pattern seems to indicate that Ike poses a significant threat to the Bahamas on Sunday and Monday. After that, it currently appears that the next trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to reach Ike and pull it to the north, so that Ike will remain on a general westward track. Even if a northward motion occurs, high pressure would eventually build in and drive Ike into some part of Florida. On the other hand, if Ike remains south of the model consensus guidance, it may track through the Florida Straits. Therefore, Ike currently poses a significant threat to the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys. In particular, south Florida is of greatest significant risk from Ike.

 

All interests in the Bahamas and in Florida, especially south Florida and the Florida Keys should pay very close attention to the progress of Ike and start thinking about what actions you will take if Hurricane Watches and Warnings are posted late this weekend into next week.

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I'm not on going on a cruise, but a long-awaited land vacation in Sanibel Island, Florida (outside Ft. Myers). We're leaving tomorrow and I'm of course having second thoughts now - FIRELT5 - your information is so helpful.

 

I guess we could always go and if it starts to get worse, we could leave early... If anybody has any thoughts, I'd appreciate them. I know only we can make the final decision...

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FIRELT5: Thanks for your information and keeping us up to date with Ike. We leave for WDW next Friday and then a cruise on Sunday, so have been a little nervous about the drive down next week and of course the cruise. Your explanations have made it easier to understand what might happen with this storm. Keep the updates coming, please.

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I want to say up front that I am very concerned about the future track and intensity of Ike and the potential impacts on the United States coastline, especially south Florida, the Florida Keys and the Bahamas.

 

Recent satellite images early this morning indicate that the eye of Ike has lost a little of its definition and the cloud tops of the eyewall have warmed somewhat. Maximum sustained winds early this morning are near 125 mph. Due to forecast shear over the next 24 to 36 hours, some weakening of Ike is anticipated and the hurricane will likely drop down to Category 2 strength by tomorrow. The global models then forecast that the shear will lessen after tomorrow and Ike will still be over sea surface temperatures near 84 degrees Fahrenheit. Therefore, restrengthening is anticipated from Sunday through Tuesday and Ike may strengthen back up to Category 4 strength. The HWRF model forecasts Ike to be a major hurricane early next week, but the GFDL model does not because its forecast track goes over Cuba. Meanwhile, the SHIPS and LGEM models forecast a weaker hurricane, although the LGEM prediction appears more realistic since it does a better job of taking into account the eventual lessening of the shear. It should be noted that the LGEM model forecasts Ike to be a 125 mph hurricane on Tuesday morning. Therefore, it seems very possible that Ike will be a major hurricane of Category 3 or Category 4 strength early next week.

 

A ridge of high pressure has settled in directly north of Ike, as a trough of low pressure departs Atlantic Canada. Ike is tracking due west at a forward speed of 15 mph. Hanna is forecast to depart the western Atlantic and it curves north and then northeast over this weekend and all of the global models are forecasting that a ridge of high pressure will build in and extend southwestward to Florida by late this weekend and early next week. A key unknown for the forecast track of Ike early next week is how strong that ridge of high pressure will be and how long it will remain intact. In general during the last day or two the models have been trending toward the ridge staying in place longer, resulting in tracks maintaining the generally westward motion longer and delaying any potential turn to the north. That trend has continued somewhat early this morning, but the consensus model guidance has only shifted west slightly on Tuesday into Wednesday. The overall model trend and its related upper air weather pattern seems to indicate that Ike poses a significant threat to the Bahamas on Sunday and Monday. After that, it currently appears that the next trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to reach Ike and pull it to the north, so that Ike will remain on a general westward track. Even if a northward motion occurs, high pressure would eventually build in and drive Ike into some part of Florida. On the other hand, if Ike remains south of the model consensus guidance, it may track through the Florida Straits. Therefore, Ike currently poses a significant threat to the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys. In particular, south Florida is of greatest significant risk from Ike.

 

All interests in the Bahamas and in Florida, especially south Florida and the Florida Keys should pay very close attention to the progress of Ike and start thinking about what actions you will take if Hurricane Watches and Warnings are posted late this weekend into next week.

Ty Firelt5 for keeping updated. If it does go into south fl and the keys. What do you expect for the gulf? I am planing on leaving IN on Thru for Mobile. We are leaving a day earlier to see Family in TN.

I know i am going to watch this storm. To see if we might need to leave even earlier.

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I'm not on going on a cruise, but a long-awaited land vacation in Sanibel Island, Florida (outside Ft. Myers). We're leaving tomorrow and I'm of course having second thoughts now - FIRELT5 - your information is so helpful.

 

I guess we could always go and if it starts to get worse, we could leave early... If anybody has any thoughts, I'd appreciate them. I know only we can make the final decision...

 

We were on Sanibel Island when Charley went thru, and came onshore there. We arrived on Tuesday and were made to leave on Thursday morning, we were leaving on Saturday to cruise out of Port Canaveral (which we did make). It's not very nice when you have your vacation planned and are told to leave. We got in the car and started driving north, decided to go to WDW, so got on the cell phone and got a reservation. Disney was filling up fast, because the storm was suppose to travel up the west coast and hit Tampa. Charley followed us and came thru Orlando on Friday late afternoon/night. If you do go I would have a back up plan, the locals know where to go and what to do, all we were told to do was GET OUT OF DODGE! The airports were closed from Friday noon until Saturday afternoon, causing many people to miss their cruise. Anything else I will try to answer.

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