kingfoot
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Posts posted by kingfoot
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I hadn’t really thought about the option of Serenity doing the Red Sea without passengers. Still significant risk to ship and crew, but certainly would save a lot of logistical hassles. One way it could work is to disembark all pax in Mumbai, and offer them a 15 day overland/air experience from Mumbai ending in Alexandria / Cairo on the 27th as per original itinerary, and then continuing on to Istanbul on the original schedule. Serenity would only miss 3 ports: Salalah, Safari and Hurghada none of which seems like major provisioning ports. There would be time on the overland to see some Indian sites such as Taj Mahal or tigers, then fly to Egypt with time to see some sites there, perhaps even Luxor. The cruise/tour package could also be offered to those boarding in Mumbai who might already have flights.
There are a couple of issues I see with this however:
- Still significant risk to crew and ship. Would insurers go for it?
- 15 day overland with air for 100+ pax, might be a lot to plan at this point, but certainly A&K has some depth here.
- Would world cruisers be able to leave personal property on board, or pack up completely? If personal items are left on board, Crystal would probably need additional insurance to cover loss. If required to pack up completely, might be a logistical nightmare for the overland travel, and would certainly complicate the day in Alexandria with additional luggage handling.
- Some world cruisers explicitly take the WC because they can’t/won’t fly in airplanes. Not sure how you work around that.
Anyway, interesting thought experiment.
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A little more analysis… Ignore if you want to just find out the real answer next week!
Using the sea distance site Roy pointed out, here are the average speeds necessary to meet up with the Serentity’s planned segment start dates.
Perth to Istanbul (37 days): 13 knots
Perth to Athens (48 days): 9.8 knots
Perth to Toulon (59 days): 7.4 knots
Mumbai to Istanbul: (18 days): 24 knots
Mumbai to Athens: (29 days): 16 knots
Mumbai to Toulon: (40 days): 11 knots
As a benchmark, the upcoming San Diego to Papeete segment covers approx 5200 nautical miles in 18 days, for an average journey speed of 12 knots. This is considered an extremely sea-day intensive cruise.
Perth to Istanbul or Mumbai to Toulon would both have an average voyage speed in the ball park of San Diego to Papeete, and would provide a similar very sea-day intensive voyage.
Roy pointed out Mumbai to Istanbul is physically impossible at 24 knots, I would also bet that Mumbai to Athens is also out — it’s highly unlikely Serenity could sustain 16 knots average over 29 days, while providing a decent guest experience.
The issue with Mumbai to Toulon (or Perth to Toulon for that matter) is that you are going to deviate all the way to the Med, only to pick up one segment (Toulon to Miami) which is transatlantic. So it doesn’t really retain any of Serenity’s Med cruises.
If I had to guess, I would say Perth to Istanbul or Perth to Athens are the most likely, but again, overriding business reasons might require a different choice.
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My 2 cents: Here are some plausible scenarios — just making some guesses based on transit times borrowed from other cruise itineraries:
Assuming the Red Sea transit is not possible, I imagine Crystal would want to reroute at segment boundaries, the 2 logical departure points from the original schedule are:
- Perth (March 27)
- Mumbai (April 15)
Assuming Crystal wants to minimize cancelled segments, I think Serenity could make it from Perth to Istanbul (via Capetown) in time for the May 3rd cruise. It would be pretty much a sprint, but I think doable. This would cancel only 2 segments. The other option is deviate in Mumbai targeting Athens on May 14, which I think is also doable, again missing 2 segments. More leisurely options exist, such as Perth to Athens, but they would cancel at least 3 segments. The reroute from Mumbai to Miami via Capetown and South America is also possible, potential including some Amazon time, but would cancel 4 segments.
These are the options as I see it just based on distances. Of course, fuel expense, revenue tradeoffs, and all sorts of logistics will figure in as well. Tough call for all those involved.
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33 minutes ago, Texas Tillie said:
😵💫🙄😳😳🙄😵💫That’s a good project for someone to figure out how many “airplane” bottles it would take to fill the pool!
Patty
Probably close to a million, assuming at 50,000 liter pool and 50ml airline bottles!
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One Explorer design issue became apparent to me yesterday as we sailed away from Kotor. There is no forward facing open air area for photography! The only forward facing public area is inside the observation lounge and photography though the windows is not very good.
There is an area above the Regent suite on the super structure, but it is crew only.
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From the teaser video, looks like a westbound cruise from the states, through the suez, possibly ending in Europe. I could make out in order: Hawaii, Sydney, Bangkok, Petra, Rhodes, Zakynthos, Rome, Toulouse (Auch)
I've been corrected, the last bit of footage is from Provence (Sénanque Abbey), near Gordes (nearest port: Marseille)
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From the teaser video, looks like a westbound cruise from the states, through the suez, possibly ending in Europe. I could make out in order: Hawaii, Sydney, Bangkok, Petra, Rhodes, Zakynthos, Rome, Toulouse (Auch)
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I assume this means that Regent has different payouts each game depending on the number of game cards sold?
Yes. 90% of sales are used to pay winners. The more people play, the bigger the prizes.
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Hate to revive this thread, but... Cruising on Regent recently I asked about the bingo proposition. House takes 10% (pretty modest), and the house take goes entirely to the crew entertainment fund. Now *that's* a bingo game even a grumpy mathematician can enjoy!
Our first time on Regent, and I must say it is a complete class act. Totally different product than Princess.
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Apologies if anyone took offense, I was just trying to provide an analysis of the gaming aspects of the Princess Bingo proposition. Entertainment value aside, I found the game to be a surprisingly poor proposition from a game theory standpoint. If you just don't care about the analysis of the game and play strictly for entertainment -- more power to you. (and you should probably stop reading this thread!)
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Positives:
...
Oh yeah. One more.... UBER ROSSI...
I"M OKKKKK!!!!
(had to be there)
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Now here is a question for the OP. I was also on the same cruise as you and besides the topic of Bingo, what else did you like about the cruise. Did you have a great time, what shore excursions did you do; did you enoy the amenties of the ship. We certainly did and really enjoyed the International Cafe I was just wondering if there was other things you enjoyed besides Bingo.
Marilyn
Positives:
- food (Amalfi, and one night each in Crown Grill and Sabatini's)
- staterooms (we had a mini-suite).
- waitstaff and maitre'd's.
- games, quizes, trivia
- ports, particularly Ixtapa/Zihuatenejo.
- hanging on the deck by the pools
- kitchen tour
- high tea
- non-shopping aspects of Princess shorex
- slots (I'm a sucker, but it was fun).
- no cell phone connectivity = total relaxation :cool:
Negatives:
- bingo rip-off
- too many port shopping lectures, and not enough port history/culture lectures
- gift shop stops on Princess shorex (particularly in PV)
- no daily newspaper digest like on HAL
- zoe's tourgroup monopolizing prime back deck location for Acapulco sailaway party. I understand she sold 1/5th of the ship, but why can't they use skywalkers, or some other under utilized place, and let the prime realestate be used by the other 80% of the customers.
Overall, though, a really nice experience!
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You know, if I spent my cruise time reflecting on how much profit Princess was making by way of a soda sticker, formal photos, shore excursions, foo foo drinks, extra charge restaurants, wine, casinos, chef's table charges and tapas from the International Cafe, I would end up driving myself crazy.
That is hardly what I want to do on my cruises, not matter how many advanced degrees I have.
Sorry, but I always strive to be an informed consumer. For every dollar I spend, of course I think about the value delivered! Don't you? Just because I'm on vacation doesn't mean I stop trying to be an informed consumer! I'm perfectly happing buying photos, cocktails, wine at dinner, and shorex. I understand the value delivered on these items, even if the cruise line is making a healthy profit. Am I happy with the overall value of a cruise vacation? Yes. Will I ever spend another dollar on cruise bingo? Probably not. Again, your mileage may vary...
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Bingo revenue keeps fares down.
There is no free lunch -- the lower the fares go, the more the cruise line will be motivated to up-sell and drive onboard revenue. If you want prices to go lower, eventually they will charge for food, deck chairs, shows, gym access, etc...
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but a lot of people really enjoy it, and I'm betting they will still go even if they realize the payouts are a small percentage of the take.
You are still misunderstanding the math. The payoff is much worse than just a small percentage of the take. The payoff is instead a small fixed amount. As ticket sales increase, your expected return goes to 0.
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OK, let's avoid getting personal -- I'm not a socialist. A cruise ship is hardly a free market where different bingo games can live or die based on their terms. I'm pretty certain the Princess bingo game would not survive in a "free market" of bingo games.:)
Every transaction is about value received for value given. For your bingo purchase, you basically get 2 things of value -- (1) the chance of winning a pot, and (2) the entertainment value, excitement, room high, adrenaline rush, whatever of participating, even if you loose. If you participate in cruise bingo, you should be basing your value largely on (2), since I can tell you mathematically (1) is a very bad deal. Being mathematically inclined, I personally can't ignore (1), but I can accept that other folks can. However, my feeling is that there are a lot of people who think they are getting significant value for (1), and don't understand that they are not. Since I am an empathetic person, this makes me personally sad and further detracts from my personal enjoyment of sitting in the room, thereby wiping out (2) for me. Your mileage may vary and that's ok.
For those who still like to play, the best way to think about the Princess bingo return is more like a "raffle", rather than a traditional bingo game. In other words, what the cruise ship is really doing is selling individual chances of winning a fixed amount. As more tickets are sold, your chances of winning decrease, but the pot remains constant. In the limit of an infinite amount of tickets, your expected return is 0. In a fairer bingo game, as more tickets are sold, your chances of winning still decrease, but this is offset by a proportional increase in the pot. In the limit of an infinite number of tickets sold, you would still expect 50c on the dollar (or whatever the house take is). If you are happy with the "raffle" model, more power to you!
You can apply a similar thinking to the cruise value as a whole. At one limit is the theoretical "100% all inclusive cruise line", where a fixed price is paid for the experience. At the other limit is the theoretical "100% free cruise line" where the rooms are free and the cruise line revenue is made entirely on art, photos, port shopping kickbacks, bingo, casino, spa, food & drink, excursions etc... A number of you have said that all inclusive is not attractive to you and you like the low prices. But conversely neither would I like a free cruise where the focus is 100% on onboard revenue, since then 100% of the space and time of the cruise would have to be spent "selling me" something, and that's not what I'm personally looking for in a vacation. Again, your mileage may vary...
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Easy... Don't play
I just got off the Star this morning and saw that there was standing room only playing Bingo so I guess other people don't mind the payout..
Greetings fellow traveler. I must say overall it was actually a great cruise.
Fortunately, I have an advanced math degree and can easily smell a rip off by thinking about the basic gaming economics. Clearly, I won't be playing cruise line bingo any more. However, I feel sick to my stomach for other travelers many of which are seniors and may not understand exactly why the Princess bingo structure is such a rip off for them. Since cruise ship gaming is essentially unregulated, there are no state gaming commissions to enforce disclosure or reasonable protections for consumers. I can pretty much guarantee that such a gaming structure would not survive any reasonable fairness test.
Sure, there is a "high" to participating in a jackpot bingo game in a crowded cruise ship lounge, but for me that benefit does not mean I'm willing to give away money. On top of that is the sinking feeling that most of the room has no idea how badly their being taken. I can guarantee you that if the pot actually got bigger with ticket sales, the customer satisfaction with bingo would actually increase.
It would be one thing if the cruise ships take were merely an obscenely large percentage (like 90 percent), but its another thing entirely when the passenger's upside is completely limited. No matter how many tickets Princess sells, that first game is worth -- $100 dollars. (that's about a sofa or two worth of ticket sales). I even witnessed a $125 dollar pot split six ways! This means even the winners lost money!
Finally, it's fine to say -- its your choice, don't participate. But don't forget that there is a finite amount of space and time on any voyage. Every vista-lounge-hour spent swindling passengers out of bingo money, is another hour lost for things like cultural lectures, cooking demos, and other forms of non-revenue entertainment.
<begin rant>
More generally, I would almost rather pay a little more $$ for my cruise on a truly all inclusive cruise line than spend the entire cruise feeling that the cruise line is trying to maximize its revenue from me with bogus bingo games, art auctions, jewelry sales, shore excursions (aka more jewelry sales), internet charges, etc... I fear that cruising will eventually turn into the vacation equivalent of a 10 day "time share" sales pitch.
</ end rant>
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Just got off the Star, and noticed something very disturbing about the Bingo games. It appears the payoffs are not based on a percentage of sales, but are instead fixed at an extremely low amount, independent of actual ticket sales revenue. My quick order of magnitude guess (based on attendance observations and estimates) for our 10 day cruise was that Princess sold about $50,000 worth of tickets, and gave away about $5,000 total in prizes. What's worse is that if they managed to sell $100,000 in tickets, they would still only payout $5,000! Every ticket sold after the first 200 or so is 100% profit for the cruiseline! I'm sure most people assume that the bingo offered is the traditional scheme where the more people play, the bigger the jackpot, but it does not appear to be the case. Even if the house kept 50 cents of every dollar I could still enjoy a game, but the fixed payout model is so outrageously unfair it almost seems borderline unethical to me... any other thoughts?
World Cruise on Serenity - Need Info RE: Red Sea Segment
in Crystal
Posted
You might be confused. I don’t see Perth or Limassol on Symphony’s itinerary.