BermudaBound2014

Color me dumb, but I honestly had no idea that Princess carried twice the passengers as HAL (skewed for length of cruise of course), but still! I wasn't surprised at MSC. I've sailed them several times and the value is most certainly there both in and out of the Yacht Club. The Aponte Family has stated numerous times they intend not to be just part of the big 4, but the biggest of the 4 and they have a very aggressive ship building schedule. They aren't traded publicly so it's difficult to disseminate the data points, but I suspect they will overtake NCL in # of passengers in the near future. MSC is also the parent company of the recently launched Explora Cruises which are likely going to be stiff competition in the luxury cruise market. Total % Passengers CCL (Carnival, + P&O + HAL + Aida + Princess + etc...) = 42.9 RCL (Royal + Celebrity + Seabourn) = 25.7 NCL (NCL + Regent + Oceana) = 9.4% MSC 8.5% (not sure why Explora is shown separately) Sorry to the non-math folks who are totally bored with this discussion 😄

Here's a full data set from Market watch (ty trld) I think some of you may find the context interesting. I highlighted MSC just for giggles because I think it's time MSC get their very own category considering how many passengers they carry 😄 . Also, gentle reminder that during COVID MSC Cruises had mom and dad (MSC Shipping company) around so they didn't have to borrow Billions in debt. They are a absolutely a player in the industry. https://cruisemarketwatch.com/market-share/

Can you please link to this data set? All I can find on market watch is from 2021. My google skills are clearly lacking. Thank you.

You are correct. It is the website terms and conditions office that is in Seattle. Thank you.

We've already beaten that one to death. See post #87 😄

I just re-fared a cruise leaving in January 2025 also. The current 'sunshine' special still includes gratuity (and I believe yours will too) so you may not lose that (I didn't). As POA1 mentioned, there is a difference in your internet package. You will likely be downgraded from premium to surf internet. For us, the downgrade in beverage package doesn't matter as DH drinks beer. I'll pay to upgrade to premium internet onboard. It's hard to say exactly what you will save without knowing which promo you booked under. Note any difference in OBC also. For me this was a chunk of change savings. Best of luck!

It does seem like HAL is offering two different products. One for longer cruises and one for the 7 day 'bus runs'. I know when I spoke with staff on the 35 night legendary cruise they told me that HAL had a much bigger budget for food and entertainment. Makes sense as the longer cruises are typically more money. This was confirmed by a gal I met who was on the 18 day Hawaii preceding our cruise who said that many more things were offered on the legendary voyage (example lobster tail at the lido and prime rib offered every 3rd or 4th night). It's getting more and more difficult to make blanket cruise line comparisons (example princess vs HAL). To get more a accurate comparison it's now necessary to compare ship to ship and itinerary length to itinerary length.

Just for clarity, The star princess isn't new in terms of ordering. It's been on the order books for several years. I believe that ship was ordered right after covid (or maybe it was ordered before covid and postponed? I forget, but I'm sure someone can answer definitively when the order was placed for the Star Princess. They have been taking reservations for the ship since 2023. It is a new ship set to come into service in 2025 for Princess. It's 4,300 passengers and 175K G/T. Not super big, but not small either. Here is a list of new build orders if anyone is interested: https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-ship-orderbook/

It took 19 months to build kdam. Working backward on the timeline proposed, HAL would need to get 3 new builds on the shipyard calendar in 2026/27 to be completed and in service by 2030. Seems lofty Like I said, time will tell.

Still not following your logic, but that's ok. I'll bookmark this post and revisit in 2026 to see if HAL has actually ordered three new ships to be operational by 2030 (I think that's a super lofty goal so we will just have to agree to disagree and let time tell the story). Side note; with the 5 new ship orders on the books for Carnival, they are already committed to increasing capacity by 34,000.

I don't believe I'm pushing an agenda as I believe everything I have posted is factual not speculation. At this time the company IS putting all their new build orders in the Carnival Brand basket. It's undeniable. But regardless, please help me to understand your logic. Negating that the cost to operate a cruise ship rises at 25 years, the current average age of a cruise ship is approximately 30 years. New ships orders take 1-2 years to build IF the company can find a building dock. If HAL placed an order today, the soonest it could start building is 2027 (highly unlikely) making the ship finished in roughly 2029 (again highly unlikely). But lets give your theory the benefit of the doubt and say CCL will order a new ship for HAL in 2026/2027, find a dock to build it, and complete the build by when, 2030?. Again, I believe this is highly unlikely and any new build orders placed in 2026/27 would be completed in 2033/34 as more realistic timeframe (that part is speculation on my part, but it seems logical, no?). Since you expect CCL to place an order for a HAL ship in 2026/27, when do you speculate that ship would be completed? Not trying to be argumentative, just wanting to understand your logic. By your generous timeline for new builds, the Volendam and Zaandam will be 'aged out' by industry standards before the new ship can be built, and the Zuiderdam, Oosterdam, and Westerdam will all be older than 25 years. Help me to understand this. The two oldest ships in Carnival are small ships about the same age/size as Zaandam and Volendam. The spirit, pride, legend, and conquest are also older ships but ironically they are about the same age as the vista class. In terms of percentage of the fleet over 25 years, doesn't HAL and Carnival have about the same capacity needing replacement? Half of Holland America's fleet will be more than 25 years old by 2032. As far as I know (and please correct me if wrong), that would make HAL operating both the oldest and most expensive fleet in the mainstream category.

It is more than just the movement of P&O Australia. CCL also moved several Costa ships to Carnival and the 5 new build orders speak volumes. I will give you that they didn't say they were actually reducing capacity (because they really can't say that now can they? 😉 ) But we can read between the lines since no new orders are placed for any company other than Carnival thru 2033. No matter how much HAL passengers love the HAL fleet, they will age out. CCL did say that the overall growth of the entire company (including HAL, Princess, Costa, Cunard, Seabourn) will be less than 2% thru 2028 and the vast majority of that growth will be new ships for Carnival. This is further evidenced by 5 new build orders for Carnival mega ships since February reading into 2033. While our company’s overall growth between 2019 – 2028 is projected to be less than 2% (CAGR), the majority will be for Carnival Cruise Line, which will grow by approximately 50% over that time period.” https://www.carnivalcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/carnival-corporation-strategically-align-portfolio-and-absorb-po In terms of building ships for the future, CCL is putting all of their eggs in the Carnival Brand basket in a BIG way. That isn't to say they won't add new builds orders for HAL, but those new builds are not yet on the books and I suspect some of the current fleet will age out before any new ship builds can be completed.

I think this is an important point. The question for the company is 'just how many is some'? HAL has a great niche right now in offering longer cruises with more unique itineraries at mainstream pricing. While it is unlikely I would book a 7 day bus run on HAL, I am booked on two longer cruises in 2025 (22 and 35 days respectively). I'd like to see CCL commit to building new ships for the HAL niche. I'm not sure how realistic that is, but I don't see them ever operating a 8,000 passenger vessel.

Editing my post- only two of the new builds are excel class. The 3 ships ordered today are a brand new class.

yep- CCL has openly stated they plan to reduce capacity on HAL, Princess, etc… while increasing capacity on Carnival, Aida, and P&O. The 5 new ship orders for Carnival in 2024 is further evidence. However; CCL will need to build ships for companies other than Carnjcal, Aida, and P&O if they wish to remain this diverse.