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philipb

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About philipb

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  1. But unlike governments, there is a limit to how much an ailing business can borrow. This is how I think it could play out: The re-start of mainstream cruising will continue to be delayed in 2021 to the point where the 'Big 3' cruise companies no longer have sufficient working capital to remain afloat. The 'cash burn' will continue and we could see the big corporations filing for bankruptcy (in whichever jurisdiction they may reside). In this event, the secured lenders will either convert their debt for equity (wiping out existing shareholders in the process) or sell their secured assets (
  2. Well, now we have it. The re-fit is deferred yet again (I imagine because of the cost considerations) and the Wind schedules do not appear to begin until November.
  3. If RCCL does go bust might just Manfredi Lefebvre be standing by ready to re-acquire Silversea? There's a thought. In the meantime, back to the topic of this thread. I think the Spring '21 conversion (or delay thereof) of Silver Wind will be an acid test of just how strained the finances are at RCCL.
  4. A perfect summation of the situation which echo my thoughts exactly. The problem then becomes how long the major cruise companies can survive. Their currently stressed balanced sheets could reach breaking point in the second half of 2021. At which point the vultures will circle.
  5. Silver Moon's formal handover took place yesterday. Such a pity she has nowhere to go (with passengers, that is). https://www.cruisecritic.co.uk/news/5697/
  6. As the months pass I cannot see the Silver Wind refit happening in Q1/Q2 2021, purely on financial considerations.
  7. Australia is rightly being very cautious.
  8. I had forgotten the expression 'Ponzi scheme' but you are absolutely right in your assessment (as Is Mr Jim Walker). "It will all end in tears", as the saying goes. The Wall Street analysts are ignoring the Elephant in the Room!
  9. I think we shall continue to see month-by-month cancellations by SS and the other cruise lines and that mid-2021 is the absolute earliest that cruising might re-commence. Rather a lot hangs on the spread of Covid-19 in the Northern Hemisphere winter, and how long the cruise lines can survive financially. And, of course, whether a vaccine comes on-stream.
  10. It looks like the Red Sea charter cruises may be underway again. Silver Spirit left King Abdullah Port at 19.27 on 17 September since when she has been to somewhere up the coast called Ar Rayis. The ship is now southbound again and due back at King Abdullah at 06.00 Sunday (source: Marine Traffic). It is stinking hot in the Red Sea at this time of year with temperatures relentlessly in the high 30s. I feel so sorry for the poor crew. It must be ghastly.
  11. It's simply to preserve cash for as long as possible, before having to make refunds. No other reason.
  12. The prospect of the three major cruise companies surviving is looking increasingly remote. Their balance sheets are under considerable strain.
  13. I feel so sorry for the poor crew. Are they confined to the ship? I cannot imagine that shore leave will be possible for them. Or am I wrong?
  14. Not a good start. I hope the passengers on these cruises treat the crew with the civility they are used to from Westerners.
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