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About Wonderingabout

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  1. I suppose there are two ways of looking at high risk. 1. Financial
  2. One point that is continually brought up in this topic is the implication that the disease will keep spreading because of peoples reluctance to get the vaccine. This argument might make sense two months from now but it has no relevance at this time when demand for the vaccine exceeds supply. When the supply of vaccine begins to exceed the demand and the Virus is still raging through the community, then the argument that those who are resistant to taking the vaccine are at a minimum contributing to the pandemic may be made. At this time however the argument is at best
  3. The problem is just what is the science and what are the facts. What is true this week for using to support a postion is often reversed the following week. 1. Japan is often used as an example of a country that knew how to control the Virus BUT it now is starting a major lockdown process to get that control back. What protocols did it change to begin to lose its control? What happened that led Japan from being smart on a path to dumbness? 2. The official EU website - European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control list statistics by country. Using th
  4. That answers the question or does it just shift it. The Question the original poster was really asking is why the order not who instituted the order. Apparently some people are looking for more from experts and rules makers than being treated like a child who after asking why is told by her parent "Because I Said So".
  5. The creditor is looking for the best return and may be willing to write off a portion of the principal if it believes it is better off than foreclosing. My guess is that the ocean going ships have lost a large share of their resale value as a result of the pandemic both for its effect currently and on the projections going forward. See Carnival's willingness to dispose of many of its ships. There is a glut of old ships with the approximate size of Crystal and Serenity on the market today. It is likely the creditors were already underwater regarding their collateral, the ships,
  6. My understanding was that Operation Warp Speed was about profits. The drug companies could use government guarantees to establish ramped up production facilities before the vaccines were approved. One of the biggest delays in getting a vaccine to market is the time needed from approval to creating production capacity to be distributable in quantity. Therefore Drug companies would first determine if their Vaccine was in fact viable and approved before incurring the large costs of ramping up production. But by guaranteeing these ramp up costs would be paid by the government the Drug compani
  7. The key to dealing with the virus is not the Vaccine but rather the therapeutics. As real as the medical problems that the virus is culpable of creating for people. An issue just as big is the psychological effects that this virus is having. It is pitting people against other people as they seek to find blame. There is scientific amazement that the vaccines are being reported as 95% effective. But in the United States even if everybody received the vaccine it would still leave over 15 million residents subject to the Virus. When we have been unable to deal psy
  8. That reasoning falls into what I call the double down theory of thinking by experts. Social welfare benefit experts do the double down when their solutions do not work by saying the reason is because we are not devoting enough resources (money) to the proposed solution. More of the same will yield a different result. see "great society" The General (military experts) say we are not winning the war because we need to double down on the strategy More of the same will get a different result. See Vietnam, See first world war The Expert is never wron
  9. Presumption is that Masks are effective or at least somewhat effective or if worn properly are effective. These are inferences derived from inferential reasoning not by facts. No study conducted prior to this pandemic or subsequently has shown that wearing a mask is effective. Fact; The virus is three times smaller than the filtration system of the N95 mask and vastly smaller than the filtration system provided by the standard cloth mask. Scientists are speculating on exactly how the virus is transmitted but have been unable to come to a firm conclusion. First it was
  10. It is amazing how everybody knows the truth about how to approach the Virus and and how different the truth is depending on the person. And it is amazing how anybody who does not follow the truth as he sees its is either foolish because he is too adverse to risks that don't exist. ie Foolish to hide in the basement. Or Foolish because not only does he risk infecting himself but risks infecting everybody else. ie Foolish not to be wearing a mask. (When and where depends on the opinion of the responder) ie. Foolish not to be wearing a particular type of mask. (Gaiter is okay, or gaiter
  11. Crystal Cruises, really any cruise line, has essentially three assets. 1. Customers- A customer base call it goodwill represented in part by the deposits it holds on repeat customers. A bird in the hand is worth more than two in the bush. 2. Personnel - In particular hotel directors, restaurant director, cruise directors and others who supervise the personnel that come in contact with the customers because they are the primary conveyors and enforcers of the qualiity control of the ship. That is they know what makes the Customer happy and how to make the customer happy. The Ship's
  12. The boards show a lot of concern about losing deposits. The risk is real but it is the last thing a cruise line would think not to honor. Nor would any financial creditor in his right mind force a cruise line to go back on the deposits. Although the customer deposits appear as a liability on a cruise line's balance sheet they are really a valuable intangible asset and perhaps the most valuable asset that the cruise line has. These deposits are probably the last thing they will write off in bankruptcy and what they will try to sell at a premium if they were to liquidate.
  13. Sounds like a Chapter 11 bankruptcy without the court. The Financial Creditors could probably take them to court and have a formal chapter 11 bankruptcy declared but they no doubt legitimately fear the attendant risks and costs if they did so.
  14. "There is sooooo much contradictory Information out there that I believe NOTHING from any side. Case in point: The state of MD classifies positivity different than JHU. In one case (the state site) MD is below the 5% positivity rate, in the other (JHU) they are not and this comes down to how and how often they classify the testing. Also, hospitals are reimbursed more if they classify the cause of death as CV 19. My son’s best friends grandpa who was in hospice for stage4 cancer and given 2 weeks to live, after being in a nursing home, died of “covid”. He did not die of covid, he was goin
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