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ERParadise

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Posts posted by ERParadise

  1. Delta has already peaked in the UK and cases are declining.  Likely that will occur elsewhere.

    However there are already 4 more mutations coming after Delta.  In Los Angeles is appears there is a breakout of fast growing Epsilon and in other countries Zeta.

     

    People don't seem to want to research the 3 most recent SARS viruses before Covid-19 and each one had a long series of mutations that followed.  The difference then was it was neither political and media worthy.

     

    Most people don't realize that 7.7 million people die per year in the USA (the 5-year average ending in 2018).  North do they know that right now the Red Cross is desperately calling out because of an extreme increase in demand for blood and blood platelets.  Hospitals are filled up with cancer and heart diseased critically ill patients.  So many either were shut out from the hospitals and doctors or they were freighted.  According to the Red Cross in the past 3 months there is a huge increase in critically ill patients that has nothing to do with Covid or Delta.

     

    The media campaign to frighten people has been very successful.  I am not discounting covid or Delta deaths, but merely pointing out there are far more people dying right now from non-covid illness.

    • Like 1
  2. On 8/9/2021 at 5:28 PM, CHEZMARYLOU said:

    There is a sticky at the top of this board that should give you the info you are looking for.

     

    On 8/10/2021 at 2:40 PM, George C said:

    The cost of a upgrade would have been thousands more going from sky to penthouse on edge, but I am sure that is the case sometimes , I also don’t really care for celebrity suite.

    I spoke with Celebrity today and ask how full the ships are right now and was told that most cruises during August are at 50%.  I replied that on my October cruise it shows all the suites sold out and she said that is because Celebrity is only releasing some of the cabins to keep the overall occupancy down.  If this is the case it may be different bidding on upgrades than in a normal timeframe?

     

  3. I would like to know the facts regarding past experiences with passengers placing bids to upgrade their cabins in the weeks prior to departure.  I have a few questions, but beyond my questions I would like to hear the experiences of other passengers.

    1) If two passengers bid the same amount for an upgrade does the passenger with more Captains Club points win?

    2) Can you bid to move up more than one class of cabin?

    3) What is the bid range that works to win a higher level of suite? To move into Aqua Class or from Aqua Class to a suite or move from a Sky suite to a Celebrity or Royal Suite?  The dollars it takes to win these upgrades on average?  Please give examples of what you paid to get a successful upgrade or amounts you offered and didn't get the upgrade.

    4) Do passengers who book directly with Celebrity have an advantage over a passenger who booked through an outside travel agency?

    5) Does Captain Club tier level have any value to upgrades?

     

    Thanks for all the facts that you have experienced.

  4. 4 minutes ago, jelayne said:

    IMO it will be a over a year after all ships start sailing.  There are 5 ships whose revolutionizing was stopped due to the pandemic so it’s anyone guess which goes first.

    We love the Infinity and would sail her anytime.  We were booked on a B2B for this coming October  that was cancelled.

     

    The rumors that the Infinity and the Constellation will be leaving the fleet have been around for well over 7 years.  I guess at some point they will be true.

     

     

    Does "B2B" mean "back to back cruises?"

     

    Thanks for your insight on Infinity.  We are looking at shifting that cruise schedule (March 2023) to a cruise on Oceania or Regent.  We want to go to South America and our previous S.A. cruise was covid-cancelled, but several friends have told us the suites on Infinity are in disrepair.

     

    I like the financial analysis that "Stockjock" gave and to me, I don't think any of the cruise lines are out of the woods financially.  The three big public company cruise lines borrowed a huge amount of money to survive covid and those loans/bonds will have growing debt service (especially if interest rates rise in 2022 & beyond).  Covid has added all kinds of costs to their respective business models and the inflation in food, fuel, labor, port fees, etc will all significantly increase costs.  I simply don't see the money to rehab ships as every bit of cash needs to used for the ongoing financial bleeding.

     

    It is not far-fetched to consider that there might be more mergers of the big co's simply to survive this mess.

     

    For us who like to cruise I would expect us to be paying a lot more in the coming years to cover the increased costs to operate a cruise ship.

     

    Just my gut instincts telling me surprises will occur that many passengers did not expect.

  5. We have a cruise booked from Buenos Aires on March 11, 2023.

    Some friends who are avid Celebrity fans told me we won't like the ship unless it is upgraded or substituted for an updated ship.  The enhancement that was scheduled I believe was postponed due to Covid and the financial hit Celebrity took.

     

    I'm trying to find out what the current plan is for this ship to modernized.  

  6. Does Celebrity require passengers wear masks on upcoming sailings in Jan/Feb?

     

    We respect people with conditions that are at risk, but we will not sail with a rule that passengers must wear masks.

     

    We are interested to book new cruises and want to know what the current policy is for Celebrity and mask requirements.

     

    Thanks

  7. Be careful about a broad stroke to quickly dismiss all antibody tests.

     

    The leading manufacturers have had their tests reviewed by 3rd parties with over 99% accuracy.

     

    I have read several of the diagnostic reports and there are a number of small CO’s using tests that have reliability down to 85%.
     

    Some in government feel threatened by antibody testing as they don’t have an answer to increasing numbers of people who show evidence they already have had the virus.

     

    These antibody tests are being questioned over a lack of reliability and also the premise that we don’t know if a person can get the virus more than once.  While it is possible people can get the virus more than once the more likely answer is that some people carry the virus for a long period of time with several spikes in symptoms.

     

    Regardless, very soon there will be hundreds of thousands of people who have had the virus and scientists and medical professionals will be able to definitively say if people have gotten the virus twice.

     

    For now my view is that past similar viruses were not caught twice, but there were people who carried the virus for several months.

     

    Some government leaders fear an inability to stop people from an active lifestyle and so their first defense is to brush off the antibody test results as inaccurate and/or saying there is no evidence you can get the virus a 2nd time.

     

    When this is cleared up (by monitoring people who have had the virus to see if any have gotten it a 2nd time) there likely will be large numbers of younger people purposely exposing themselves so they can put this issue behind them.

     

    That is something that really scares the government officials who are attempting to keep a lid on the virus by changing all society rules.

    • Like 1
  8. 22 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

    There are opinions, and then there are facts.  The facts are that the Covid-19 virus is more deadly than the flu.  Science is not an opinion.  Whether one feels it is worth the risk to sail anyway is an opinion.

     

    Here are some facts from people who died on cruise ships this year.

    • Diamond Princess 2666 passengers plus 1045 crew and 14 died
    • Grand Princess 2422 passengers plus 1111 crew and 7 died
    • Ruby Princess 2700 passengers plus 1100 crew and 21 died

    That is 11044 people and 42 dead.  Most of the passengers were over 70.  The cumulative death rate was 0.38%

     

    That is a very low death rate compared to the exaggérated death rate published in the media, but I would guess on these same ships in 2019 less than 3 to 5 people died on the same voyages.  COVID is highly contageous at a much higher rate than the normal flu.  

     

    How many of you are booking your next cruise on Carnival this Summer?🤥

     

    More info at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_cruise_ships

  9. 8 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

    I would say that I would probably still cruise. As long as medical recommendations are followed and everyone is wearing masks and washes their hands I dont see a reason to avoid cruising. Moreover, you can always catch another from of a flue virus which may also be fatal. In my opinion, all this COVID situation is nothing more than another flue break out 

    My wife and I don't have any of the comorbidities and our lungs are in top shape.  We will cruise when it is allowed AND the following:

    • No restrictions at any of the ports of call
    • No restrictions on the ships (we will NOT cruise if we must wear a mask all the time).

     

    We don't want to run scared the rest of our active lives.  If we get COVID (if we have not already had it) the odds are greatly in our favor that even if we get a bad case our bodies will fight it off.  The best example of COVID 19 is to study the 1968 Hong Kong flu which is almost identical in nature.  Many people in the USA and the world died, but society and business did not shut down. 

     

    Cruise ships are very dangerous for people with risk factors because viruses like this one spread very quickly.  But even on the ships with thousands of passengers (including the navy ships) the number of people who died is a very small number.  And for cruise ships the demographics during February and March were a substantial majority of people over 60.

     

     

    • Like 1
  10. 3 hours ago, Cachecara said:

    No, not unless a very good treatment is discovered.  
    I’m retired healthcare, I had 3 past co-workers die due to first responder responsibilities. 
    I know many(over a dozen) that got ill and recovered.  The majority were under 50 and none said it took less than about a month to feel close to pre morbid state.  
    A close friend and neighbor died who had no other health issues.  He had literally just turned 70.  His was a horror story. 
    currently, I have 3 friends who have lost parents. 
    I don’t need to risk this nightmare or the nightmare of being quarantined on a ship, etc for weeks.  
    If there is no successful vaccine or worthy treatment, I think many things we are currently spoiled with on cruising will vastly change and/or become very expensive. JMO 
     

    Seems very dangerous for older people

     

    i can see younger people maybe taking the chance, but anyone over 70 is at great risk

     

    the vaccine is at least a year off and then there is a period of time after that to wait and see if it truly works.

  11. Even if CDC releases cruise lines to start sailing, it doesn't seem likely people who are either older in age or people with pre-existing medical conditions that have been linked to COVID deaths will start sailing.

     

    Will you sail without a vaccine?

     

    If your answer is "YES" please tell us why you will take the COVID risk.

  12. 11 minutes ago, Charles4515 said:

     


    So far but what if they go bankrupt?


    Sent from my iPhone using Forums

     

    Carnival's lenders have stopped providing new loans.  RCL has drawn down the balance of their available line of credit. These companies are burning cash at a rapid rate. Because most people won't cruise until after they get a vaccine it is unlikely the blood bath will end until mid-2021.  

     

    What no one knows is under a chapter 11 will the cruise vouchers lose all value.  Many cruisers I know have asked for cash refunds of money put down on future cruises as they don't think vouchers will survive a chapter 11.

     

    As far as shareholders go, the stock prices have held up because many investors are holding on hoping for a recovery.

     

    Here is a good read:  https://www.investopedia.com/time-running-out-for-cruise-line-stocks-4801755

  13. 36 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

    I debated even responding, but just can't let these comments lie.  To say we have no problem sending these younger generations off to war while we stay safe at home is so wrong I can't even come up with the words.  No sane person has 'no problem' sending anyone to armed conflict.  Younger people take these roles because they are the most able to perform the task.  Period.  And for the record, there is currently no draft (and has not been for close to 50 years).

     

    As regards maturity to ask if there is a better way - anyone with any level of intelligence cannot really believe that leaders all over the world have not agonized over these same questions.  Do they always make the right or perfect call?  Of course not.  But to think they would take such drastic measures with their populations, knowing the disastrous economic impact, without seriously considering other options is beyond belief.

     

    That same group, as you call them, are of course facing sacrifice.  I have children that age and it pains me greatly to see them have to deal with this.  But they are not alone in suffering the loss of job and higher debt.  Middle aged people are seriously impacted as well.  Seniors are seeing their lifetime savings dwindling down to nothing, with few years left to rebuild the nest egg.

    This situation affects everyone. 

    My original post had no politics involved, but it has involved into conflict on this blog.

     

    My single point is that before there is a vaccine, anyone who is in the primary groups of people who are dying from COVID-19 should be very cautious before taking a cruise.  As long as COVID-19 is circling around, cruise ships might be the worst place someone with risk factors should step foot on.

     

    Young people carry the virus and are spreading it like wildfire, but the people dying are coming from people with known health issues (diabetes, heart, lung desease, obesity and primarily with people over 70 and/or smokers.

     

    No one with these health concerns should take a cruise until after they have received a vaccine (and that won't be for another 8-12 months at the earliest).

     

    I'm sure most everyone on this blog loves cruising and wants to do more and more of it. But this is a rare situation that won't be resolved by November 2020.

  14. 6 hours ago, excitedofharpenden said:

    There's one thing you omitted to talk about when distinguishing between older and younger guests. Younger are just as effective at passing on the virus as anybody else. That's the rub.  

     

    Phil 

    Phil,

    You are absolutely correct.  The biggest spreaders of the virus are millennials and virtually no millennials die unless they are obese or have a severe pre-existing condition (ie diabetes).

     

    Children also carry the virus and rarely have symptoms.

     

    But if a person has any of the underlying conditions COVID-19 can be a killer.

     

    Hopefully within a month or so we will start having antibody testing.  Then people who already have had the virus can be freed up to work.

  15. Almost 99% of people who have died from COVID-19 are over 70, have excessive weight, smoker, have diabetes, or have heart or lung disease.

     

    No one with any of these characteristics should cruise until they have received a vaccine for COVID-19

     

    Cruise ships will have people with the virus with zero symptoms until everyone is required to have the vaccine to cruise.

     

    Younger people without any of the above medical issues can take the chance, because if they get it most likely they will be ok.

     

    Hope no one with the above medical issues takes the chance before they get a vaccine

     

     

     

     

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